AEPI Report Sustain the Mission Project: Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Final Technical Report September 2009 Army Environmental Policy Institute 1550 Crystal Drive, Suite 1301 Arlington, Virginia 22202-4136 www.aepi.army.mil Office of the Director (703) 604-2305 Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704- Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for information operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188), Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED 17 September 2009 Final (09/28/08 through 09/28/2009) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Final Technical Report Contract: W74V8H-04-D-0005 Task: 0545 6. AUTHOR(S) David S. Eady, Steven B. Siegel, R. Steven Bell, and Scott H. Dicke 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION National Defense Center for Energy and Environment REPORT NUMBER Operated by Concurrent Technologies Corporation 100 CTC Drive Johnstown, PA 15904 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING Army Environmental Policy Institute AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 1550 Crystal Drive, Suite 1301 CTC-CR-2009-163 Arlington, Virginia 22202-4136 Technical Monitor: John Fittipaldi 10 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Distribution authorized to the DoD and DoD contractors only. 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) Resupply of fuel and drinking water for troops in-theater costs lives. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for calculating casualty factors for fuel and water resupply convoys in theater operations and to demonstrate the methodology based on historical data from Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Casualties calculated include Army soldiers and civilians killed or wounded while transporting fuel or drinking water to consuming units and forward operating bases in theater. Casualty factors developed for the Iraq Theater were also incorporated in the Sustain the Mission Project (SMP) Decision Support Tool. Two case studies [Rapidly Installed Fluid Transfer System (RIFTS) and Thin Film Photovoltaics in Iraq] were conducted to illustrate how the casualty factors could be used in assessments of energy technologies for theater missions. This project provides a step towards analyzing potential casualties related to transporting fuel and water in theaters of operation. However, this study suggests that casualty impacts (and other operational impacts) related to using alternative energy and water technologies to sustain Army missions should be evaluated in Army combat and combat support models over a wide range of theaters and scenarios to better reflect the complex conditions and actions at the tactical and theater levels. That is, Army analysis agencies should evaluate the potential impacts, such as casualties, of different energy technologies in the battle space to include resupply convoys. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Fully-burdened cost of energy, fully-burdened cost of water, contingency operations, casualty 21 factors 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT None Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 Rev. 12/00 Prescribed by ANSI ST. 239-18 880922 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK i Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Preface This report was prepared under contract for the Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI) by the National Defense Center for Energy and Environment (NDCEE), operated by Concurrent Technologies Corporation (CTC), with substantial support from Energy and Security Group (ESG). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or the United States Government. The mission of AEPI is to assist the Army Secretariat in developing forward-looking policies and strategies to address environmental issues that may have significant future impacts on the Army. In the execution of this mission, AEPI is further tasked with identifying and assessing the potential impacts on the Army of emerging environmental issues and trends. This report discusses the efforts conducted under Contract Number W74V8H-04-D-0005, Task Number 0545, “Sustain the Mission Project: Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys.” The purpose of the task is to develop casualty factors for fuel and water resupply convoys in support of Army planning and analysis requirements. Mr. John J. Fittipaldi served as the AEPI study advocate and later as its technical monitor. Please direct comments pertaining to this paper to: Director, Army Environmental Policy Institute 1550 Crystal Drive, Suite 1301 Arlington, Virginia 22202-4144 Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Final Technical Report iii i Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Acknowledgements The AEPI Project Manager and Technical Monitor on this task is John J. Fittipaldi. The NDCEE/CTC Project Manager for this task is David S. Eady. The ESG Principal is Steven B. Siegel, and the ESG project team includes Steve Bell and Scott Dicke. This report would not have been possible without the assistance from Headquarters, Department of the Army (HQDA), Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff (ODCS), G-4 (Logistics) : LTC Royce Eddington, Mr. Bill Carico, and LTC Kurt Weinand and the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL) Mr. Fred Wham. ii Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Table of Contents List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ iv(cid:3) Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... i(cid:3) 1(cid:3) Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1(cid:3) 1.1(cid:3) Purpose .............................................................................................................................. 1(cid:3) 1.2(cid:3) Background ....................................................................................................................... 1(cid:3) 1.3(cid:3) Report Structure ................................................................................................................ 1(cid:3) 2(cid:3) Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 2(cid:3) 3(cid:3) Analysis and Results ..................................................................................................................... 4(cid:3) 3.1(cid:3) Casualty Factor Calculation ............................................................................................. 5(cid:3) 3.1.1(cid:3) Calculate the Fuel and Water Related Resupply Casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan for 2007 .............................................................................................. 5(cid:3) 3.1.2(cid:3) Estimate the Number of Fuel Resupply Convoys in Theater – Iraq ...................... 5(cid:3) 3.1.3(cid:3) Estimate the Number of Water Resupply Convoys in Theater - Iraq ..................... 5(cid:3) 3.1.4(cid:3) Estimate the Number of Fuel Resupply Convoys in Theater - Afghanistan .......... 5(cid:3) 3.1.5(cid:3) Estimate the Number of Water Resupply Convoys in Theater - Afghanistan ........ 5(cid:3) 3.1.6(cid:3) Calculate Casualty Factors .................................................................................... 5(cid:3) 3.2(cid:3) Demonstration of the Casualty Factors using the SMP Tool Cost-Benefit Analysis Capability ........................................................................................................................... 6(cid:3) 3.2.1(cid:3) Rapidly Installed Fluid Transfer System (RIFTS) in Iraq ....................................... 6(cid:3) 3.2.2(cid:3) Application of Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT) Casualty Factor: Thin-Film Photovoltaic (PV) Example in Iraq ......................................................................... 7(cid:3) 3.2.3(cid:3) Application of Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT) Casualty Factor: Generic Fuel-Reduction Investment .................................................................................... 8(cid:3) 4(cid:3) Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9(cid:3) 5(cid:3) Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 9(cid:3) List of Figures Figure 1. Overview of Fuel and Water Resupply Convoy Casualty Factor Methodology ............................ 2(cid:3) Figure 2. Resupply Convoy Casualties (FY 2003-2007) in Iraq and Afghanistan ....................................... 3(cid:3) Figure 3. Army Fuel Purchases in Iraq and Afghanistan by Year. ............................................................... 4(cid:3) Figure 4. Casualties Avoided based on Varying Reduction in SBCT Fuel consumption. ........................... 9(cid:3) List of Tables Table 1. Estimated Water and Fuel Resupply Casualties ........................................................................... 5(cid:3) Table 2. Resupply Casualty Factors ............................................................................................................ 6(cid:3) Table 3. RIFTS Cost-Benefit Analysis: Casualties Avoided per SBCT per Year ......................................... 7(cid:3) Table 4. Photovoltaics Investment: Fuel-Related Casualties Avoided from a 75% Reduction in Generator Fuel Consumption (20 SBCT equivalents over 5 years) ................................................................ 8(cid:3) iii Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys List of Acronyms AEPI Army Environmental Policy Institute APC Army Petroleum Center CAA Center for Army Analysis CALL Center for Army Lessons Learned DoD Department of Defense FBCF Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel FBCW Fully Burdened Cost of Water FY Fiscal Year GHG Greenhouse Gas HMMWV High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle HQDA Headquarters, Department of the Army IED Improvised Explosive Device KIA Killed in Action MRAP Mine Resistant Ambush Protected OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OIF Operation Iraqi Freedom PV Photovoltaic RIFTS Rapidly Installed Fluid Transfer System SBCT Stryker Brigade Combat Team SMP Sustain the Mission Project TGER Tactical Garbage Energy Refinery THEPS Tactical Hybrid Electric Power Station USMC United States Marine Corps WIA Wounded in Action iv Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Executive Summary Resupply of fuel and drinking water for troops in-theater costs lives. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for calculating casualty factors for fuel and water resupply convoys in theater operations and to demonstrate the methodology based on historical data from Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Casualties calculated include Army soldiers and civilians killed or wounded while transporting fuel or drinking water to consuming units and forward operating bases in theater. Casualty factors developed for the Iraq Theater were also incorporated in the Sustain the Mission Project (SMP) Decision Support Tool. Resupply casualty factors calculated for Iraq and Afghanistan [Fiscal Year (FY) 2007] are shown in the Table below. For example the casualty factor for fuel resupply in Afghanistan is .042; that is .042 casualties for every fuel-related resupply convoy or one casualty for every 24 fuel resupply convoys in Afghanistan. Two case studies [Rapidly Installed Fluid Transfer System (RIFTS) and Thin Film Photovoltaics in Iraq] were conducted to illustrate how the casualty factors could be used in assessments of energy technologies for theater missions. Theater Iraq Afghanistan Fuel Water Fuel Water Casualty Factor (Casualties/ Convoy) 0.026 0.016 0.042 0.034 This project provides a step towards analyzing potential casualties related to transporting fuel and water in theaters of operation. However, this study suggests that casualty impacts (and other operational impacts) related to using alternative energy and water technologies to sustain Army missions should be evaluated in Army combat and combat support models over a wide range of theaters and scenarios to better reflect the complex conditions and actions at the tactical and theater levels. That is, Army analysis agencies should evaluate the potential impacts, such as casualties, of different energy technologies in the battle space to include resupply convoys. i Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys Sustain the Mission Project: Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose The purpose of this project is to develop and demonstrate a methodology to calculate casualty factors for fuel and water resupply convoys in support of Army planning and analysis requirements. Casualties calculated include soldiers and civilians killed or wounded while transporting fuel or drinking water to consuming units and forward operating bases in theater. Casualty factors were derived based on a statistical analysis of historical data from Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Casualty factors will be used in the Sustain the Mission Project (SMP) Decision Support Tool as a measure of benefit regarding investments in energy or water technologies that reduce the number of resupply convoys in theaters of operation. 1.2 Background Sustainable energy security is a requirement for all Department of Defense (DoD) missions to include operations, installations, the industrial base, and strategic planning. In the Army for example, sustainability policy is promulgated in the Army Strategy for the Environment: Sustain the Mission, Secure the Future, which states that a sustainable Army simultaneously meets current as well as future mission requirements worldwide, safeguards human health, improves quality of life, and enhances the natural environment. The priority for sustainable energy security in theaters of operation was articulated in July 2006 when United States Marine Corps (USMC) MG Richard Zilmer, Al-Anbar Province, submitted a Joint Urgent Operational Needs Statement requesting alternative energy solutions. He stated: “By reducing the need for Class III (petroleum) at our outlying bases, we can decrease the frequency of logistics convoys on the road, thereby reducing the danger to our Marines, Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen.” MG Zilmer’s request was to reduce the amount of fuel needed in order to save lives; in effect, he asked that DoD measure the cost of fuel in blood, not dollars. In July 2005, Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI) sponsored the SMP, which developed and applied an analytic methodology for calculating the fully burdened costs of fuel and water resources to sustain Army missions in theaters of operation and in the training base. It includes the costs of fuel, equipment, personnel, inter and intra-theater transportation, and other costs related to providing energy to a consuming Army unit. The SMP methodology uses Army and DoD databases and processes which enable fully burdened costs of energy and water to be updated as data inputs are updated on a recurring basis. The SMP II project developed a user-friendly decision support tool for cost-benefit analysis of energy and water investments. In the SMP Tool, the value-added of investing in energy or water technologies is measured in terms of factors such as payback, reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG), and most importantly the number of fuel or water resupply convoys (to include ground and air force protection) that would be freed up for other missions as a result of the investment. The value added analysis in the SMP Tool does not account for potential casualties avoided as a result of investment in energy and water technologies that could reduce the number of resupply convoys in theater. 1.3 Report Structure The remainder of this report is organized into three Sections. Section 2 provides an overview of the methodology developed to estimate Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys. Section 3 describes an application of the methodology and the development of casualty factors in the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. Section 4 provides study conclusions and recommendations. 1 Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys 2 Methodology This section discusses the methodology and data used to develop the casualty factors. The methodology for calculating fuel and water related convoy casualties is comprised of the steps shown in Figure 1. • Number of Resupply Convoy-Related SMP Tool Casualties by: Database • Theater and Year • WIA/KIA • Military/Civilian • Bottled Water and Fuel Share of Resupply Derive Casualty Factors by: Convoy Load • Theater and Year Incorporate • Casualty WIA/KIA Factors into the • SMP Tool Military/Civilian Total Number of Resupply Convoys per Theater per Year Energy/Water Investment Analysis Figure 1. Overview of Fuel and Water Resupply Convoy Casualty Factor Methodology The first step of the methodology is to determine the number of resupply convoy-related casualties in theater. For the purposes of this study, a casualty is defined as either military or civilian personnel killed or wounded in either Iraq or Afghanistan in support of OEF or OIF. The historical casualty data used in this study were obtained from the Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL). Based on their analysis of total casualty data, they were able to provide resupply convoy related casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan from Fiscal Year (FY) 2003 – 2007. The data include both wounded in action (WIA) and killed in action (KIA) for both Army personnel (including Guard and Reserve) and Contractors (and other Civilians). Figure 2 shows the resupply-related casualties by theater and year used in the analysis. 2 Sustain the Mission Project Decision Support – Casualty Factors for Fuel and Water Resupply Convoys