“I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world— so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink (cid:72)(cid:66)(cid:83)(cid:90)(cid:33)(cid:76)(cid:77)(cid:70)(cid:74)(cid:79) (cid:84)(cid:117)(cid:115)(cid:102)(cid:102)(cid:117)(cid:109)(cid:106)(cid:104)(cid:105)(cid:117)(cid:116)(cid:33)(cid:98)(cid:111)(cid:101)(cid:33) (cid:84)(cid:105)(cid:98)(cid:101)(cid:112)(cid:120)(cid:116) (cid:84)(cid:102)(cid:98)(cid:115)(cid:100)(cid:105)(cid:106)(cid:111)(cid:104)(cid:33)(cid:103)(cid:112)(cid:115)(cid:33)(cid:117)(cid:105)(cid:102)(cid:33)(cid:76)(cid:102)(cid:122)(cid:116)(cid:33) (cid:117)(cid:112)(cid:33)(cid:66)(cid:101)(cid:98)(cid:113)(cid:117)(cid:106)(cid:119)(cid:102)(cid:33) (cid:69)(cid:102)(cid:100)(cid:106)(cid:116)(cid:106)(cid:112)(cid:111)(cid:33)(cid:78)(cid:98)(cid:108)(cid:106)(cid:111)(cid:104) Streetlights and Shadows Streetlights and Shadows SearchingfortheKeystoAdaptiveDecisionMaking GaryKlein ABradfordBook TheMITPress Cambridge,Massachusetts London,England (2009MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology Allrightsreserved.Nopart of thisbookmay bereproducedin anyformbyanyelec- tronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinformationstorage andretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher. MIT Press books may be purchased at special quantity discounts for business or sales promotional use. For information, email [email protected] or write to SpecialSalesDepartment,MITPress,55HaywardStreet,Cambridge,MA02142. SetinPalatinoon3B2byAscoTypesetters,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnited StatesofAmerica. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Klein,Gary Streetlightsandshadows:searchingforthekeystoadaptivedecisionmaking/Gary Klein. p. cm. ‘‘ABradfordBook.’’ Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-0-262-01339-0(hardcover:alk.paper) 1.Decisionmaking. 2.Problemsolving. I.Title. BF448.K54 2009 153.8'3—dc22 2009007501 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 toHelen,Devorah,andRebecca Contents ListofExamples ix 1 TenSurprisesaboutHowWeHandleAmbiguous Situations 1 PartI MakingDecisions 13 2 APassionforProcedures 15 3 SeeingtheInvisible 33 4 HowBiasedIsOurThinking? 49 5 IntuitionversusAnalysis 67 6 BlendingIntuitionandAnalysistoMakeRapid Decisions 83 7 ExpertsandErrors 101 8 AutomatingDecisions 115 PartII MakingSenseofSituations 127 9 MoreIsLess 129 10 WhenPatienceIsaVice 147 11 TheLimitsofFeedback 165 12 CorrectingtheDots 177 13 DoWeThinkLikeComputers? 199 viii Contents PartIII Adapting 205 14 MovingTargets 207 15 TheRisksofRiskManagement 229 16 TheCognitiveWavelength 251 17 Unlearning 269 PartIV Finishing 283 18 ReclaimingOurMinds 285 19 GettingFound 295 Acknowledgments 303 Notes 305 Bibliography 319 Index 335 List of Examples 2.1: Aflyingbrick 19 2.2: Thehijackprocedures 20 2.3: Thehighroadandthelowroad 22 2.4: Thebubble 26 3.1: Sailsmanship 37 3.2: Thefallguy 38 3.3: Catchingcriminalswhiletheyaresleeping 40 3.4: Trackingthecustomers 41 3.5: Detectionwork 42 3.6: Thehiddenhotel 45 4.1: Howtolietoyourtoaster 57 4.2: Thegazeheuristic 59 5.1: Panningthepundits 68 5.2: Location,location,and...dislocation 74 5.3: Theunsinkablehedgefund 75 5.4: Deliberationwithoutattention 76 5.5: Whoisleadingtherace? 77 6.1: Pushingthefireout 88 6.2: Goodtothelastdrop 89 6.3: MiracleontheHudson 91