SPRING 2013 Vol. 7, No. 1 Commentary The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Confict Keir A. Lieber Daryl G. Press Between Integration and Coexistence: US-Chinese Strategies of International Order Liselotte Odgaard The New Media and the Rise of Exhortatory Terrorism George Michael Deterrence Logic and NATO’s Nuclear Posture Damon V. Coletta What Great Powers Make It: International Order and the Logic of Cooperation in Cyberspace James Wood Forsyth Jr. Energy Insecurity: The False Promise of Liquid Biofuels CAPT T. A. “Ike” Kiefer, USN SPRING 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly An Air Force–Sponsored Strategic Forum on National and International Security VOLUME 7 SPRING 2013 NUMBER 1 Commentary Te New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Confict ..................................................................................... 3 Keir A. Lieber Daryl G. Press Feature Article Between Integration and Coexistence: US-Chinese Strategies of International Order ..................................................... 15 Liselotte Odgaard Perspectives Te New Media and the Rise of Exhortatory Terrorism .................. 40 George Michael Deterrence Logic and NATO’s Nuclear Posture ............................... 69 D amon V. Coletta What Great Powers Make It: International Order and the Logic of Cooperation in Cyberspace .................................... 93 James Wood Forsyth Jr. Energy Insecurity: Te False Promise of Liquid Biofuels ................. 114 CAPT T. A. “Ike” Kiefer, USN The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Confict fo elo r eht tuoba srae y tnece ra fo r seires a ni selcit dehsilbup e vah e W . s c i t i l o p l a n o i t a n r e t n i n i s n o p a e w r a e l c u n 1 da s e l c i t r a etse h t , r e h t e g o t n e k a - -itamard sah noita v oni lacigolonhcet ,tsri F :stnemugra niam owt ecna v ylac de v o rpmi eht ytiliba fo setats ot hcnual ” retnuoc ec rof “ —skcata taht ,si ratilim y sekirts demia ta gnimrasid na rasre vda y y b gniy o rtsed sti raelcun .snopae ws ,dnoce ni eht gnimoc ,sedaced gnireted eht esu fo snopae raelcun lanoitne gnirud w sraw vnoc red liw naht eb hcum rah ropmi e -acilpmi tnat vah stnemugra eseht fo htoB .e veileb stsylana tsom u eht rof snoit s-rednu yltne ruc ro�e t noitazinredom snopae w raelcun , yaw dna htob e vah detareneg noisucsid dna msicitirc ni eht raelcun ramus feirb niam a ruo e fo y reh re�o e w ,su� . ytinumoc lacitylana .smsicitirc eht fo lare ves ot latube r dna stniop The Counterforce Revolution and US Nuclear Primacy ,d e c i t o n n u y l l a u t r i v t e y , t n a t r o p m i n a t u o b a s i s t n e m u g r a f o t e s t s r � e � . re w op fo ecnalab eht dna ygolonhcet ratilim y ni segnahc fo ecneuqesnoc i demrofsnart sah taht ycaruca ni noitulo ve r emas eht ,lehstun a n -noc lanoitne v e raw raf sah dah ylauqe suotnemom secneuqesnoc rof raelcun snopae w dna .ecne reted 2 re y V etaruca re viled y ,smetsys en w -noce r ecnasian ,seigolonhcet dna eht gnizisnw od fo slanesra mo rfc ra dlo W sle vel e vah edam htob lanoitne vnoc dna raelcun retnuoc ec rof sekirts tsniaga raelcun slanesra hcum e rom elbisaef naht re ve .e rofeb p spahre tsom ,gnisirprus gniriap ylhgih etaruca re viled y smetsys htiw raelcun snopae w stimrep tegrat seigetarts taht dluow etae rc riv ylaut on -oidar .seitilataf decude r yltsa v ,ecneh ,tuolaf e vitca sd t er sr n a yo a e le l n a wc o F n u a n g o s n w h i t t m u e r e f t s o e h tc r a d l o W , n o i t a i l a t e r f o t a e r h t e h t a i v s k c a t t a r e t e d y l b a i l e r s l a n e s r a r a e l c u n t a h t — a r e - i l p m i e h t — r e t h g u a l s s s a m o t t n u o m a t n a t s i e s u s n o p a e w r a e l c u n t a h t d n a . g n i r r a j e b d l u o h s n o i t u l o v e r e c r o f r e t n u o c e h t f o s n o i t a c e� lanoitne vnoc eiv w gniknil raelcun snopae w ot etamelats dna rethguals saw tce roc gnirud eht retal sedaced fo ehtc . y B eht ra dlo W dim ,s0691 a rt e ylu raelcun vitce�e retnuoc ec y ekirts rof rehtie b —edis taht ,si a gnimrasid w y olb b re eno l w a tsniaga oprepus n eht e s raelcun r a Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 [ 3 ] 3 . e l b i s s o p m i e m o c e b d a h — r e h t o e h t f o e s dedleiw r e w o p r e p u s e h t f o h c a na suomrone ,lanesra hcihw saw de y olped no a esre vid tes fo re viled y .smetsys e� rehs rebmun fo stegrat taht dluow e vah ot eb ,de y o rtsed - u t r i , v s m e t s y e s c n a d i r u y a g r o p m e t n o f s c o n o i t a t i m i e l h h t t i d w e n i b m o c d e et g kt a nyc nd h gila al t, yn m lt ru l ni r ta ao i av ae a uw a a sh yg f e it m l d e n e - r e h t r u F . e t a i l a t e r o t h c i h w h t i w s n o p a e w g n i v i v r u s f o r e b m u n e g r a l a h t i w s u o m r o n e d e c u d o r p e v a h d l u o w e k i r t s e c r o f r e t n u o c t n a c � i n g i s y n a , e r o m n a i l i v i c f o s n o i l l i m d e s u a c e c n e h d n a t u o l l a f e v i t c a o i d a r l a h t e l f o s e i t i t n a u q 4 . s e i t l a u s a c t sco M e n v i i tl c l ai e tm y s r o f n a h o a w m — s t s i g e t a rr t a s d W l o e t a i c oy s l s e a v i t c ne i m toa s tc n — i y ay dt oi tn u ml m a o c c i t y lr a a n e ale c h u t n a ht i w e s u r a e l c u n d n a e t a m e l a t s h t i w s n o p a e w r a e l c u n . n o d d e g a m r d e g n a h c e v a h — s n o p a e w r e h t o l l a y l l a u r t i v e k i l — s n o p a e w r a e l c u n t u B t i m r e p s m e t s y s e c n a d i u g n r e d o M . s e d a c e d r u o f t s a p e h t r e v o y l l a c i t a m a r d r a e l c u n s r e n n a l p s e io t t i l i b a b o e r v p ef i o h c a” e g “ at m s a n d i a g da e n e d r a h r a s e t l e c g u rnt d a a et h t r r a e e f h w o n u g n i r u d e h tc .ara dl o W d n - t h g i e h d l u o w t a h t s e i g e t a r t s g n i t e g r a t l a n o i t i d a r t n o n s t i m r e p o s l a y c a r u c c a d e n e r e h r t u f e s a e r c n i e h t s s e n e v i t c e � e f o e c r o r f e t n u o cs e k i r t s d n a y l t a e r g - e r 5 e c u d . s e i t l a u s a c e� n o i t u l o v e r n i y c a r u c c a d n a , s r o s n e s d n a e h t - a l e r y l e v i t l l a m s r a ry o p m e t n o, c s l a n e s r a n a e m t a h t r a e l c u n s e c n a l a b d n u o r a eh t ro f — d l r o w ,e l p m a x e ne e w t e b eh t u deti n s set a t dn a c ,ani h eh t u detsin s de nt a tn neei e w ts e p a ,br n aueihd ehrnt utea pf r o h r t o K n a r c eht o t e c n a l b m eise r d n a e l t t i l . � o d n ra a t e s b — l e a r s r e w o p r e p u s r a W d l o t s e d r a h e h t d e l e d o m e w 6 0 0 2 n i , y c a r u c c a n it no i t u l o v e r e h t e t a r t s u l l i o ula c i t e h t o p y h a : m i a l c r u o r o r f a e e s l a c c u n t s esg r a l t x e n e h t n o e k i r t s t s r � r fo t a h t , - d r l u r d o w d e e s h u t e n i r e l w a n e t s a r h a t s l e d o m e m a s e � . a i s s u g n i e h t c drl a o W o t e t a r t s n o m e dye t h i t l i b a p a c s e f n eo i h t — e t a m e l a t s aM r o ” , n o i t c u r t s e d d e r u s s a l a u t u m “ f od no i t i d n o c t a h t d e t s e g g u s w o n — 6 n ee e g hv r et arl .d e e k g i ny n r ii d t l om l sa r ua r n ea n o t e bs a c s s i i e r d s d a s u r o f n o i t a d n u o f e h t s i h c i h w — y c a r u c c a n i p a e l c i t a m a r d e h t , e r o m r e h t r u F s i s— d e e ne i c i s g h a r otb o el i e fnl r o w ob e yn v a t lh i l n ec t i u de c a o it e c w � v e a h c a e r f o d e mr re ,a h s-t g e r o n t a i a e d t l u s c l u c n n ir ,a i s s uc ,a n i hp ,n a t s i k a e uhttu o b t a o s e n i g a s s e g m n i d i r r e v r o u . O s r e h t d o n a sr- r a e l c u n n a i s s u s n o p a e w r a e l c u n t u o b ar s .f e e s i l e b r e p y e k e c n a t l a a h b t s i t n i o p r u o , r e h t a - r e d n u r i e h t e n i m a x e e r o t d e e n s t s y l a n a d n a s r a l o h c s ; d e n r u t r e v o n e e b e v a h . e c n e r r e t e d d n a e t a m e l a t s r a e l c u n t u o b a s n o i t p m u s s a g n i y l , s t s y l a n a r a e l c u n ysna m h t i w s e u s s i e s e h t d e s s u c s i d e v a h e w , 6 0 0 2 e c n i us raelcun eht htiw de ratilim vlo dna vni ,slaic�o srec�o tnemnre y v og .noisima tsoml re ve gnihty e w denrael dec rofnie r ruo eiv sw tuoba eht [ 4 ] Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 retnuoc ec rof noitulo ve r dna stsegus ruo reilrae k row detatsrednu eht u ni pael ylsuoive rps e W .noitpec xe eno htiw—seitilibapac retnuoc ec rof deugra tahtus raelcun eht—” ycamirp ytiliba “ ot esu raelcun snopae w ot y o rtsed eht cigetarts sec rof fo yna rehto rtnuoc de raepa—y ot eb na lanoitnetni laog fous e deton taht ne ve sa eht W .srekamycilopu detin s setat yltae rg decude r sti raelcun ,lanesra ti ,deniate r dna ni emos sesac ,de v o rpmi esoht raelcun sec rof taht e re w ylaedi detius ot eht -retnuoc ec rof .noisim desa B no tahw e w e vah yltneuqesbus ,denrael e w dluow u eh t taht dnetnoc ot tnemugra ruo fo rap t siht neprahs dna tsace r d e t i n s c i g e t a r t s “ g n i u s r u p y l l a n o i t n e t n i s i s e t a t hs a W g taht n i n a e m — ” y c a m i r p - notgni skes eht ytiliba ot taefed ymene raelcun sec rof sa( le w sa rehto dMW tub—) tahtus raelcun snopae w e ra tub eno noisnemid fo taht ro�e .t i n ,tcaf eht ro�e t ot e zilartuen rasre vda y cigetarts taht—sec rof ,si e veihca cigetarts snaps—ycamirp ylraen re ve y mlae r fo :e raw raf rof ,elpmaxe citsilab elisim ,esnefed enirambusitna ,e raw raf -ecnegiletni rus ecnasianoce r-dna-ecnalie v ,smetsys e visne�o rebyc ,eraw raf -noc lanoitne v noisice rp ,ekirts dna egnar-gnol noisice rp ,ekirts ni noitida .seitilibapac ekirts raelcun ot i n , m u s ” o wsl th a tt u nu r eo t mb a ydr e n a h u e t f l — c“ s u n n o p - a e e r w ylba i l ecudo rp etamelats dna rieht esu dluow ylirasecen etae rc sam d e ne r svu y yeant ry lb g h—seitl ausac e eg t n e o eva b l n i h d o i u c n n o q a h c e t c i t a m a .re s d c n r o o i f t c u d eur , y rn y a y a r l m o e p t s ma e e n s t u y n t r l o o a c f n n a e c n e r r e t e d r a e l c u n t a h t n o i t p m u s s a e h t n o t s e r o t m e e s s c i t i l o p r a e l c u n f o l ls i n t o s i t c n u fs a t i d i d n i e h t . s 0 7 9 1 n eo � i t a l u p if t o s s s r ae m t h g u a l s aM r e d n u d eh t n i s p i h s n o i t a l e r r a e l c u n e m o s r o f e u r t e b y a m s n o i t i d n o c d l r o w t u b t o n r o f . s r e h t oa dn sw en e n o t i a t r i e d n n e o :gw c e s n n o i t s e u q t s o e e n r o s a d u e l c n u e k n h y rw o l o t e w k e i c l n e r r e w t s e , i o d e h l p m a r x o e f e h t e r a t a h w ,ir a l ? u r c e i t t r h a g p u a l s n s s a m d n a e d i c i u s y l p m i y l l a c i t a m o t u a u ro f s n o i t a c i l p m i s?y c i l o p r a e l c u n The Problem of Coercive Escalation and US Nuclear Modernization a dnoces tes fo stnemugra smets mo rf eht melbo rp fo raelcun -alacse ueh t f o e r u t u f e h t d n a n o i t s-e d t a h t s i m i a l c n i a m r u O . l a n e s r a r a e l c u n sedaced g n i m o c e h t n i t l u c � i d e r o m h c u m e b l l i w t c i � n o c r a e l c u n g n i r r e t naht ynam stsylana .e zilae ra s raelcun snopae w ,etarefilo rp ti semoceb ylgnisae rcni ylekil taht ehtu detins setat liw dn� flesti ni lanoitne vnoc Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 [ 5 ] stci�noc htiw demra-raelcun .seirasre vda eso� seirasre vda dnatsrednu eht secneuqesnoc fo gnisol a raw ot ehtu detins nosirp—setat ro htaed 7 ylacipyt stiawa ymene .sredael c evic reo raelcun noitalacse sa a snaem fo gnitae rc etamelats dna gniniame r ni re w op si eno fo eht ylno rt pmu u eht gnithg� seirtnuoc ot elbalia va sd rac s detin .setat s emo stsylana thgim �ocs ta eht noiton taht a lanoitar redael dluow esu raelcun snopae w tsniaga a re w oprepus ekil ehtu detin s .setat tu B taht rote tr seta�noc eht cigol fo emitecaep ecne reted htiw eht cigol fo , r ad wn a .t i s e r o n r y g odits i h g n, ie r m u i t et cs a o e m p l a y n a e s r u o c f o n o i t c a si reteb naht rats gnit a raelcun raw tsniaga a . re w oprepus tu B d n da n a m m o g c n i b m o e b r s a e n a l s p ’ r e w o p r e p u t s a h n t e h w — gnirud r a w pihs r e d a e l ,setis dna nehw sti sknat e ra gnizies rotiret eht—y tsetae rg regnad n o y ida t n m aate n m l e b i oa l e a c ho rr s tt r f f e a e w n r . u er s s t r i u o c lwe as o k t f e a rt e s — s t r h u e co n d t os l a p h ne i e er o e v kt v e a n eo n i l t l y i o n a l b a t t l e � e l d — f a c e l i f e - a n d - d e a t h p er s s u er s t o c o m p e l a s t a l e m a t e . an d n u c l e a r we a p o n s p vr o i d e a b e t t e r m e a n s o f c o e r c i v e e s c a l a t i o n t h a n v i r t u a l l y a n y . o t h e r e� noiton fo seirtnuoc gnitalacse tci�noc ot dio va lanoitne vnoc -ed taef yam dnuos ,dehctef-raf tub ti si le w dednuo rg ni . rotsih y nehW row y ro—stae rht lanoitne vnoc re v gnimlehw o ecaf setats demra-raelcun tuoba eht ytilibisop fo cihpo rtsatac lanoitne vnoc yeht—taefed netfo tpoda e vic reoc rotalacse y senirtcod ot reted raw ro etamelats a tci�noc taht re .stpup natsika ylnepo sdnetni ot esu raelcun snopae w ot retnuoc na re v gnimlehw o lanoitne vnoc i naidn .noisa vnir aisu smialc ti sden retaeht raelcun snopae w ot retnuocnat s lanoitne ’O vnoc .segatna vda i lears stcepxe ot niw sti lanoitne vnoc sraw tub sniate r eht ytilibapac rof raelcun noitalacse ot tne ve rp tseuqnoc ni esac sti lanoitne vnoc sec rof .taefed cihpo rtsatac a re�us e� noisucsid fo e vic reoc raelcun noitalacse dluohs dnuos railimaf nretse ,stsylana ot sa W ti sawnat s ygetarts rof ’O e rht mo r .sedaced F eht dim s0691 litnu eht dne fo ehtc ,nra dlo W at O denalp ot reted , raw dna etamelats ti fi , rasecen hguo y rht e vic reoc raelcun .noitalacse nat O dotsrednu y b—taht eht dim ti—s0691 dluoc on regnol niw a se h t t s n i a g a y r t raelcun a i w r u c uet s e l i a v n o o i t a n s t i d e s a b l l i t s t i t u b , n o i n y no g e vic reoc e noitalacse t wasra a esuacebpr tit s de veileb W tca -ne vnoc re v .gnimlehw o e re w sec rof lanoit c eh t g n i r u d d e t s i x e t a h t t s i x e s c i m r a a n y d r y o t W a l a c s e d l oi e h t , t r o h s n dna—yadot yeht e ra tsuj sa re w .luf ops setat lits ecaf eht emas lacitirc [ 6 ] Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 c eht gnirud decaf yeht melbo rp ytiruces lanoitan -hguo rht dna ra W dlo tuo rotsih , :y w oh yleman ot tne ve rp regno rts seirtnuoc mo rf -reuqnoc gni .meht e� sekats-hgih rekop emag fo lanoitanretni scitilop sah ton ;dedne eht sre yalp dna sd eht yle tlaed e rac .degnahcvah rem eso� ohw e re w kae w gnirud eht c dlo ra W e ra w on ,gno rts dna rehtona tes fo ” yliratilim kae w hcus—seirtnuoc “ sanro ht ,ae ro K i ,narp ,natsika dna c neve r dna anih dnefed ot snopae w raelcun kes ro hctulc w on—aisu n sare tsujv ratilim ,thgim gnimlehw o y mo rf se vlesmeht at.did ecno O u eht nac tahW s detin ?noitalacse fo melbo rp eht etagitim ot od setat i , ylaed ti dluohs dio va sraw tsniaga demra-raelcun .seimene tu B taht noitpo yam ton eb elbisop ne vig tne rucus ngie rof ycilop dna -ila ra .secna yam W re tpu no eht nae ro Kp ,alusnine gniransne ehtu detin s setat ni a eltab tsniaga a etarepsed demra-raelcun .eof i n eht ,e rutuf ip demra-raelcun eht a ni thg� senal yam aes notgnihsa re v o nar W naisre g .flua dn ehtu detin s setat dluoc yademos eb degard otni raw y b a c ne wteb hsalc .sdnalsi detupsid raen sec rof la van esenapa J dna esenih a , yle vitanretl eht u detin s setat dluoc kes ot pole ved lanoitne vnoc raw snalp dengised ot egaw detimil raw tuohtiw gniregirt ymene -acse .noitald tnempole ve fo e vitanretla snalp si ,elbisnes tub rotsih y sw ohs taht sraw e ra tluc�id ot ,niatnoc dna nredom lanoitne vnoc eraw raf si . rotalacse yltne rehni y a d riht noitpo ot etagitim eseht sregnad si ot ,niate r dna ,e v o rpmi usrew luf op gnidlei F .seitilibapac retnuoc ec rof raelcunon dna raelcun —raw gnirud noitalacse rasre vda y reted pleh yam snopae w retnuoc ec rof naht rehtar ” etuhcarap nedlog “ a esohc ot sredael ymene gnicnivnoc y b e dna—noitalacseu dluow vig s esnopse snoitpo sredael fi reteb -reted r ecne r .deliaf i , n eht rap ralucitu detins setat dluohs niate r dna pole ved -retnuoc fo scitsiretcarahc yek e rht rehtegot gnirb taht snopae w raelcun . re viled tpmo rp dna ,dleiy elbixe� , y ycaruca hgih :ec rof tu gnineprahs , raelc eb o s ” noitulos “ a ton si seitilibapac retnuoc ec rof a .snopae w raelcunrasre vda y fo melbo rp eht ot ,subirap siretec ,hguohtl kcal ot naht seitilibapac retnuoc ec rof tnelec xe e vah ot reteb eb dluow ti yltae rg dluoc seirtnuoc ynam ,noita vitom dna emit hguone ne vig ,meht tcepso rp elbisualp eht ne vig tu B .sec rof rieht fo rus ytiliba viv eht esae rcni taht ehtu detins setat liw dn� flesti gnigaw raw tsniaga demra-raelcun ,setats dna ne vig eht re w luf op se vitnecni fous seirasre vda ot hsidnarb ro esu raelcun ,snopae w ti dluow eb selkce r ot deco rp tuohtiw a luf retnuoc raelcunon dna raelcun nredom fo etius .seitilibapac ec rof Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 [ 7 ] Response to Our Critics a tnece r ecne refnoc lenap deto ved ot ruo k row desiar lare ves -itirc 8 ,smsic emos railimaf dna srehto . en w w ole B e w e ziramus eht niam .esnopse r ruo re�o dna snoitcejbo ♦“ rasre y vda e zilartuen ot gnikes ton si setat S detin U e ”.sec rof tne reted s emo scitirc eugra taht ehtu detins setat si ton gnikes cigetarts -irp . ye� ycam tceje r yna tnetni dniheb eht ecnegreme fous raelcun -irp ni sec rof tne reted rasre vda y e zilartuen ot ro�e t eht yalpnw od dna ycam usi . ratilim ygetarts yu eht fo daetsn s detin -retnuoc sti gniretslob setat r a e l c u n f o e l o r e h t g n i z i m i n i m s i t i w o h e z i s a h p m e s c i t i r c , s e i t i l i b a p a c e c r o f snopae w ni lanoitan ytiruces sa—ygetarts ylno siht si tnetsisnoc htiw lanoitanretni smra lo rtnoc dna noitarefilo rpnon ro�e st demia ta -noc ,slanesra gnitsixe ecude r ,snopae w cigetarts oge rof ot setats rehto gnicniv -sim e vah e w taht si noitacilpmi e� .smargo rp noitazinredom lecnac ro u ot se vitom retsinis detupmi ylnekat s.gninalp dna smargo rp esnefed d law o vasi fo eht us tiusrup fo cigetarts ycamirp semoc tsom -e rf smra no tnemnre v og eht edistuo ro edisni k row ohw esoht mo rf yltneuq y . ycilop noitarefilo rpnonu dna no lo rtnoc k row ohw esoht ,te s lanoige r raw snalp dna noitarefilo rpretnuoc ycilop ylacipyt es gnihton -o rtnoc laisre v ni ruo mialc taht ehtu detins setat skes eht ytiliba ot e zilartuen rasre vda y cigetarts .snopae wi n ,tcaf ul siht a ro�e i t c sraepa � o ot e b s .ayci l o p s a e l p m i si , ht s c e w n r e r o a h e h e t t s s nus tn e m n r e seod v o g ton edih eht ediw egnar fo hc raese r dna gninalp ro�e st rednu yaw taht laf rednu eht r cirbu fo taefed “dMW ” ro gnitabmoc “dMW ” .a dn eht gniylrednu cigol dniheb esoht ro�e st si :elpmis ecne reted yam ,liaf -se u eht e rofe reht dna ,sraw lanoitne vnoc gnirud ylaicep s detin sden setat u dnefed ot ytiliba eht su eht dna ,seila ,sec rof s ymene mo rf dnalemoh dMW ,gnisu gnidneped no eht ,secnatsmuc ric lanoitne vnoc ,sekirts elisim ,sesnefed laiceps ,snoitarepo e visne�o rebyc ,skcata dna ni -xe eme rt sesac raelcun .sekirts i n rohs ,t gnitaefed “dMW ” dna gnikes “ cigetarts ” ycamirp e ra ylaitnese :suomynonys gnitceto rp fleseno f r o m o t h e s r’ t s r a t e g i w c e a p o n ( s w h i c s h o u n d r s e a s o n a b l e a ) n n d e u t r a l i z i n g o t h e r’ s s t r a t e g i c d e t e r r e n t f o r c e s ( w h i c h s o u n d s m o r e m a l i c i o u s ) a r e s i m p l y t w o p h r a s e s d e s c r i b i n g t h e s a m e b e h a v i . o r c tne ruus dnarg hcihw—ygetarts sekat na e visnapxe noitin�ed fo lanoitan stse retni dna si detimoc ot a labolg k rowten fo —secnaila [ 8 ] Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 snaem taht eht u detin s setat yam eb nward otni sraw htiw dMW - demra .seirasre vda e W e rga htiw ynam us tnemnre v og slaic�o taht eht ytiliba ot e zilartuen esoht rasre vda y seitilibapac ni hcus a tci�noc yam eb .lacitirc sreht O e ra e rf ot .e rgasid tu B la stsylana dluohs -ce r e zingo taht tne rucus ro�e st ’ ot tne reted e zilartuen sec rof seirasre vda e ra yltne rehni gninetae rht ot esoht ,setats dna ef w dluohs eb desirprus nehw esoht seirasre vda tae rtus saelp rof retae rg smra snoitcude r htiw 9 .msicitpeks elbaredisnoc nac snopae w lanoitne rasecenu e vnoc ;y ra snopae w raelcu N“ ”.boj eht od au c�iceps )gniv o rpmi ro( gniniate r taht si msicitirc dnoces s raelcun snopae w rof eht retnuoc ec rof noisim si . rasecenu y e� aedi si taht nredom re viled y smetsys e ra w on os etaruca taht ne ve lanoitne vnoc snopae w nac ylbaile r y o rtsed dened rah .stegrat e� , yek gnid roca ot w onk uo y fi :tegrat eht fo noitacol eht gniw onk ylpmis si ,tnemugra siht e rehw ti ,si uo y nac lik ti htiw lanoitne vnoc ;snopae w fi uo y od ,ton hguoht ne ve taht si noitacilpmi e� . pleh ton liw snopae w raelcun ne ve rof deden ton e ra snopae w raelcun rc ,laicu e ra seitilibapac retnuoc ec rof .noisim siht n e e w t e b e c n e r e � i d l a i t n a t s b u s a s i e r e h t e s u a c e b , g n o r w s i m s i c i t i r c s i � eht detcepxe sene vitce�e fo lanoitne vnoc sekirts dna eht detcepxe -fe sene vitcef fo raelcun sekirts tsniaga a egnar fo elbisualp retnuoc ec rof .stegrat e nev eht tsom re w luf op lanoitne vnoc rof—snopae w ,elpmaxe g eht uB p ecnand r O e visa M“ 75- re w op e visolpxe na e vah—” rotartene c o m p a r a b l e t o ”o n l y “ 3 – 5 t o n s o f tnt. yB c o m p a r i s o n , t h e l e a s t - up eht w ni o e nopae w r raelcun )sec ruos f nepo ot u gnid l roca( s lanesra 01 sedolpxe htiw eht re tnela w viuqe fo op ylhguo rt 03 snot fo nt. e� rehgih dleiy fo raelcun snopae w setalsnart ot retae rg rtsed e vitcu suidar 1 dna rehgih dohilekil fo tegrat rtsed .noitcu a tsniag ranid ro y ,stegrat eht ycaruca dna rtsed evitcu re w op fo lanoitne vnoc snopae w si -fus .tneic� a tsniag raelcun fi—stegrat secus si den�ed y b eht ytiliba ot y o rtsed every nopae w eht—detegrat hcum retae rg rtsed e vitcu suidar fo . ro re fo nigram lacitirc a sediv o rp snopae w raelcun ,e ru romreht F ni dlrow-lae r secnatsmuc ric re viled y smetsys yam ton -e vitce�e eht edarged taht srema J . ycaruca fo sle vel lausu rieht e veihca ro e sw rc tfarc ria edepmi taht sesnefed e vitca dna smetsys ecnadiug fo sen e . ycaruca enimrednu sgniht nac enadnum selisim ne v gnimocni tce�ed Strategic Studies Quarterly ♦ Spring 2013 [ 9 ]