STATUS OF PLANNING FOR THE 2000 CENSUS 4.P 84/10:103-30 tatus of Planning for the 2000 Cei... ^i^rtlNG BEFORETHE SUBCOMMITTEE ON CENSUS, STATISTICS AND POSTAL PERSONNEL OFTHE COMMITTEE ON POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JANUARY 26, 1994 Serial No. 103-30 Printed for the use ofthe Committee on Post Office and Civil Service -»conciT/)pv JUL 2 1 1994 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1994 ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments.CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington.DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-044273-7 STATUS OF PLANNING FOR THE 2000 CENSUS 4.P 84/10:103-30 atus of Planning for the 2000 Cen... ix^z^ING BEFORETHE SUBCOMMITTEE OX CENSUS, STATISTICS AND POSTAL PERSONNEL OFTHE COMMITTEE ON POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JANUARY 26, 1994 Serial No. 103-30 Printed for the use ofthe Committee on Post Office and Civil Service ~»COf!OVT7)QV JUL 2 1 1994 '^blUNr'UbUUuBBARV U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1994 ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice.Washington,DC 2(14(12 ISBN 0-16-044273-7 COMMITTEE ON POST OFFICE AND CIVIL SERVICE WILLIAML. CLAY, Missouri,Chairman PATRICIASCHROEDER,Colorado JOHNT. MYERS, Indiana FRANKMcCLOSKEY, Indiana BENJAMINA. GILMAN,NewYork GARYL. ACKERMAN,NewYork DONYOUNG,Alaska THOMAS C. SAWYER,Ohio DANBURTON, Indiana PAULE. KANJORSKI, Pennsylvania CONSTANCE A. MORELLA,Maryland ELEANORHOLMESNORTON, Districtof THOMASJ. RIDGE, Pennsylvania Columbia THOMASE. PETRI,Wisconsin BARBARA-ROSE COLLINS,Michigan SHERWOOD L. BOEHLERT,NewYork LESLIE L. BYRNE,Virginia (Vacancy) MELVINL. WATT,North Carolina ALBERTRUSSELLWYNN,Maryland GREG LAUGHLIN,Texas SANFORDD. BISHOP,Jr.,Georgia SHERRODBROWN,Ohio ALCEE L. HASTINGS,Florida GailE. Weiss,StaffDirector RobertE. Lockhart,General Counsel DorisMoore-Glenn,DeputyStaffDirector JosephA. Fisher,MinorityStaffDirector Subcommittee on Census, Statistics and Postal Personnel THOMASC. SAWYER, Ohio,Chairman FRANKMcCLOSKEY, Indiana THOMASE. PETRI,Wisconsin ALBERTRUSSELLWYNN,Maryland THOMASJ. RIDGE,Pennsylvania TerriAnn Lowenthal,SubcommitteeStaffDirector (ID CONTENTS Page HearingheldinWashington,DC,January26, 1994 1 Statementof: Scarr, HarryA.,ActingDirector, BureauoftheCensus, accom- paniedby: RobertTortora,AssociateDirector, Statistical Design, Methodol- ogy and Standards, Census Bureau; and William M. Hunt, Director, Fed- ecroaulntMiangnaOgffeimcee,natccIossmupeasn,ieGdenbeyr:aJlacGkovKearunfmmeannt,DSievniisoironE,vaUl.uSa.toGre,neGrAaOl Ac- 3 Preparedstatements,letters,supplementalmaterials,etcetera: Hunt, William M., Director, Federal Management Issues, General Gov- ernment Division, U.S. GeneralAccounting Office, prepared statement of 40 Sawyer, Hon. Thomas C, a Representative in Congress from the State ofOhio,preparedstatementof 2 Scarr,HarryA.,ActingDirector,BureauoftheCensus: Preparedstatementof 7 ResponsetowrittenquestionssubmittedbyHon.ThomasC.Sawyer 34 (III) STATUS OF PLANNING FOR THE 2000 CENSUS WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 26, 1994 House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Census, Statistics and Postal Personnel, Committee on Post Office and Civil Service, Washington, DC. 311T,heCasnunbocnomHmoiutsteeeOfmfeitc,e Bpuuirlsduiangn,tHtoonc.alTl,hoamta1s0:C36Saa.wm.y,erin(crhaoiorm- man ofthe subcommittee) presiding. Members present: Representatives Sawyer and Wynn. Mr. Sawyer. Good morning. Welcome to the latest installation of what my rankingmemberhas come to call "census seminars." Today we would like to talk about the Census Bureau's recent re- port. The Appropriations Committee asked for the report because of its continued concern about the scope and the pace ofthe plan- ning efforts. The primary testing of that planning effort and the preparation for the next census will take place in a year. At the last hearing we took a look at whether the plans addressed the concerns that we have heard expressed throughout the Congress about accuracy and cost. The Bureau is going to have to cover a lot of ground in a very short period oftime. So, toward that end, we wanted to look today at how things are going and whether there are legislative changes that mightbe needed. The Department ofCommerce is considering whether or not any laws will need to be changed to allow use of sampling in the cen- sus. I have a sense, at least from a lay position, that there is una- nimity among lower courts that title 13 unequivocally permits the use of sampling so long as it is in addition to more traditional counting techniques, to improve the accuracy ofthe final numbers, rather than to purely supplement the use ofthose traditional tech- niques. To that end, my sense is that it probably doesn'tjustify tamper- ing with the law that has been interpreted in detail to this point. But the truth is that we all face lawsuits, the Bureau faces many challenges and it has got to move quickly. So, for each ofthe pro- posed legislative initiatives, I hope that we are going to be able to look in some detail as to how that might improve the count. In any case, we are pleased to have with us again today Dr. Harry A. Scarr, who is the Acting Director ofthe Census Bureau, and Mr. William Hunt, the DirectorofFederal Management Issues, General GovernmentDivision, GeneralAccountingOffice. (l) For the purposes of the record, could you each identify the col- leagues with you today. Ifwe could proceed first with Dr. Scarrand then Mr. Hunt. [The prepared statement ofHon. Thomas C. Sawyerfollows:] PreparedStatementofHon.ThomasC.Sawyer,aRepresentativein CongressFromtheStateofOhio Goodmorning. I'dliketowelcomeourguestsandwitnessestothesubcommittee's firsthearingof1994. TodaywewanttotalkabouttheCensusBureau'srecentreporttoCongress. The Appropriations Committee asked for the report because of its continued concern aboutthescopeandpaceoftheBureau's2000planningefforts. The Census Bureau's primary test in preparation for the next census will take placeoneyearfromnow.Atourlasthearing,weconsideredwhetherplansforthat testaddress congressional andotherstakeholderconcerns about accuracyand cost. Specifically,wetalkedaboutthreechallengesthatlayahead: 1. TheBureau mustdemonstratetoitsmanystakeholdersthatthe newmethods effectivelyaddressconcernsaboutaccuracyandcost; 2.TheBureaumustdemonstratethatthebenefitsoutweighthecostsofadecade longdatacollectionsystem;and 3. The Bureau mustdemonstrate thatitcan covera lot ofground in a relatively shorttimeframe. In order to address congressional concerns adequately, the Bureau should con- tinue to define carefully its plans for the 1995 test. It also must ensure that test isdesignedtoallowforclearanswerstotheconcernsweallhaveaboutcensusaccu- racyandcost. An additional challenge is to let Congress knowwell in advance whetherlegisla- tive changes are needed to improve the census. Congress will not take lightly the potentialareasforlegislativeactionthattheCensusBureauwillreviewtoday. The need for changes in the law should be well thought out, with a specific discussion ofthegoalsthatthosechangeswouldachieve. In the report it submitted to Congress, the Department ofCommerce indicated thatit is consideringwhether any laws mustbe changed to allow a greateruse of sampling in the census. In my opinion, the law unequivocally permits the use of sampling, in addition to more traditional counting techniques, in order to improve theaccuracyofthefinalnumbers. Thecaselawonthisissueisconsistentandstraightforward. Inaddition,boththe Congressional Research Service and the National Academy ofSciences bave con- cluded that title 13 ofthe United States Code permits the use ofsampling to en- hancetheinitialefforttocounteverypersonineveryhouseholddirectly. While the Supreme Court has not yet had an opportunity to address this issue, theunanimity amonglowercourts thathave considered itweightsheavilyin favor ofaflexibleinterpretationofcurrentlaw. Concernsaboutlawsuitsinthe absenceofa finely-tuned statute areunderstand- able. In my opinion, those concerns do notjustify tampering with a law that has beeninterpretedindetailbymanycourts. Thecensuswill alwaysbethesubjectoflawsuits. Butthelikelihood ofsuccessful1 lawsuits will be reduced greatly ifthe design ofthe 2000 census is supported by a thorough research and testing program that aims to improve the accuracyofthe finalnumbers. The Bureau faces many challenges in the coming year. It must move quickly to answer legitimate questions about its plans in orderto build confidence about the upcomingtests andtheirresults. The Bureaumustalsodetermine whatlegislative changes it needs. For each ofthe proposed legislative initiatives, I look forward to theBureau'sexplanationofhowthatactionmightimprovethedecennialcount. WearepleasedtohavewithusDr. HarryA. Scarr,ActingDirectoroftheCensus BureauandMr. WilliamM. Hunt, DirectorofFederalManagementIssues, General GovernmentDivision,GeneralAccountingOffice. STATEMENTOFHARRYA SCARR,ACTINGDIRECTOR,BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, ACCOMPANIED BY ROBERT TORTORA, AS- SOCIATE DIRECTOR, STATISTICAL DESIGN, METHODOLOGY AND STANDARDS, CENSUS BUREAU; AND WILLIAM M. HUNT, DIRECTOR, FEDERAL MANAGEMENT ISSUES, GENERAL GOV- ERNMENT DP/ISION, U.S. GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE, ACCOMPANIED BY JACK KAUFMAN, SENIOR EVALUATOR, GAO Mr. SCARR. Thankyou, Mr. Chairman. At my left is Robert Tortora who is the Associate Director for Statistical Design Methodology and Standards at the Bureau of Census and who is the main census official who is in charge ofthe design phase of the census planning that has been going on for some days. Mr. Hunt. Mr. Chairman, with me on my right isJackKaufman. He has been leading our census work for many, many years. And I am glad to have him here with me again today. Mr. Sawyer. Welcome to you all. Dr. Scarr. Mr. Scarr. Mr. Chairman, it is a pleasure to be here today to continue to discuss the status of the Census Bureau planning for the 2000 census. You asked that the basis ofmy testimony be the status report required by the House conference report on the fiscal year 1994 appropriation for the Census Bureau. My written testi- mony is identical to that report and I ask that it be included in the record. Mr. Sawyer. Without objection. Thankyou. Mr. Scarr. Let me begin by highlighting some of the major themes of that report. Early research and development activities have identified fundamental reforms that offerpromise for address- ingthe two largest problems ofrecent censuses: Persistent differen- tial undercount, especially for minorities and certain geographic areas, and spiraling costs. I will describe these fundamental re- forms in a moment. Second, planningefforts forthe 2000 census are on schedule and, in my opinion, demonstrate that a critical and open review ofpro- gram objectives can reinvent the way the Federal Government re- sponds to the needs ofits customers. As Secretary Brown indicates in his letter, we are examining reallocation offunds within the Bu- reau to provide more to the 2000 planning efforts than the $8 mil- lion Congress originally allowed.- Third, our planning effort for the 2000 decennial census have been open to all new ideas, including those requiring legislative changes. Several legislative changes are now under review and maybe proposed. Fourth, our openness to new ideas has been aided by the much earlier and larger role that both the Secretary of Commerce and the Office of Management and Budget have played and will con- tinue to play in planningthe 2000 census. Fifth, early attention by the OMB, the Commerce Department, and other Federal agencies has led to promising new possibilities for meeting data needs. We have developed a proposal for an ongo- ing continuous measurement system. This would involve a large- scale survey to collect the long form data traditionally collected in the census, thus simplifying and openingup data resources. Sixth, the Census Bureau and the U.S. Postal Service established joint planning and development efforts for the 2000 census in 1990 and we have made significant progress on several fronts. Of par- ticular note is the program to share address and geographic infor- mation that will meet critical needs ofboth agencies, including the Census Bureau's need to maintain a nationwide master address file linked with a TIGER database. The June 1993 pilot test was a success. The Census Bureau and Postal Service exchanged address information and used that infor- mation to identify addresses missing from the Census Bureau's files and streets that were missing from ourTIGER database. As a second significant step toward full cooperation, both agen- cies exchanged address information for the 1985 census test sites. We also jointly identified areas for further cooperation to improve census taking methodology. The results of all these activities are described in detail in the Secretary's submission to the Congress. Mr. Chairman, let me now describe the fundamental reforms we plan to test in the 1995 census test in New Haven, CT; Paterson, NJ; Oakland, CA; and in six parishes in northwestern Louisiana, Bienville, DeSoto, Jackson, Natchitoches, Red River, and Winn. The purpose of the 1995 test is to provide information that will help the Census Bureau to make a final determination about the 2000 census design by December 1995. There are seven fundamen- tal reforms that we believe will improve accuracy, particularly for minority groups in certain geographic areas. Many ofus believe, as you know, that counting methods have ex- hausted their potential for enumerating our diverse population. They are expensive and marginally effective in counting people who live in nontraditional situations, have literacy or language prob- lems, or for whom traditional methods do not work. Therefore, there is little potential for reducing the differential undercount while containing census costs solely using traditional counting methods alone. Planning for the 2000 census must take advantage of other methods, in combination with counting techniques, to de- crease the differential undercount. First, we will focus on improving methods to count historically undercounted populations by identifying barriers to enumeration such as unusual housing situations, mobile populations, or limited English ability groups; and by using innovative enumeration meth- ods aimed at alleviating the effects of these specific conditions on1 the undercount. Second, we are researching the use of an integrated coverage measurement program to produce census results that will reduce the undercount. This means that we will test the use of statistical techniques, administrative records, and the like, to estimate the numberand types ofpersons missed in the census while the census is being conducted. We would use statistical estimates to account for the missed persons so that the combined or integrated results will be available by legallymandated deadlines. Third, pending the results of a test we are evaluating now, we may mail out Spanish-language questionnaires in areas of large concentrations ofSpanish-speaking households. This has the poten-