Solar PV and poverty alleviation in China: Rhetoric and reality Sam Geall, Wei Shen, and Gonbuzeren Energy Transfor mations – China Solar PV and poverty alleviation About the STEPS Centre in China: Rhetoric and reality Today’s world is experiencing rapid social, technological and environmental change, yet poverty and inequality are growing. Linking environmental sustainability with poverty reduction and In 2014, China announced an ambitious plan to help social justice, and making science and technology work for the alleviate rural poverty through deploying distributed solar poor, have become central challenges of our times. The STEPS photovoltaic (PV) systems in poor areas. The solar energy for Centre (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to poverty alleviation programme (SEPAP) initiative aims to add Sustainability) is an interdisciplinary global research and policy over 10 GW capacity and benefit more than 2 million engagement hub that unites development studies with science households from around 35,000 villages across the country and technology studies. We are developing a new approach to by 2020. This working paper traces the emergence and understanding and action on sustainability and development in an era of unprecedented dynamic change. Our pathways implementation of the initiative through discourse analysis of approach aims to link new theory with practical solutions that policy documents. Then, through a case study in the remote create better livelihoods, health and social justice for poor and and largely pastoralist county of Guinan, in Qinghai province marginalised people. The STEPS Centre is based at the Institute on the Tibetan plateau, we illustrate the constraints on of Development Studies and SPRU (Science Policy Research implementing SEPAP and contested local perspectives on Unit) at the University of Sussex, with partners in Africa, Asia the buildout of ostensibly low carbon infrastructure for and Latin America. We are funded by the ESRC, the UK’s largest electricity generation. The working paper illustrates the limits funding agency for research and training relating to social and of a top-down energy infrastructure push without incentive economic issues. mechanisms for non-state actors or independent oversight www.steps-centre.org. of a “command and control” system. Follow us on Twitter @stepscentre About the authors Other titles in this series include: Sam Geall is Executive Editor of chinadialogue.net, Research Fellow at the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) at University of Sussex, Approach Pathways to sustainability: an overview of the and Associate Fellow at Chatham House. His research focuses on STEPS Centre approach low-carbon innovation, environmental governance, media and civil 1. Dynamics Dynamic Systems and the Challenge of society in China. Sustainability Wei Shen is a political economist who worked for development 2. Governance Understanding Governance: pathways to finance agencies in China for over ten years. His research interests sustainability include the political economy of China’s low-carbon transformation 3. Designs Empowering Designs: towards more progressive and climate change policies and China’s role in global climate appraisal of sustainability finance and climate governance; 4. Agriculture Agri-Food System Dynamics: pathways to Gongbuzeren is an Assistant Professor at Southwestern University sustainability in an era of uncertainty of Finance and Economics, China. His research has focused on 5. Health Health in a Dynamic World rangeland management and policy, the relationship between cultural beliefs and nature reserve management, rural development 6. Water Liquid Dynamics: challenges for sustainability and poverty alleviation. in water and sanitation For more STEPS Centre publications visit: www.steps-centre.org/publications IDS_Master Logo This is one of a series of Working Papers from the STEPS Centre www.steps-centre.org. ISBN: 978-1-78118-366-3 © STEPS 2017 Solar PV and Poverty Alleviation in China: Rhetoric and Reality Sam Geall, Wei Shen and Gongbuzeren STEPS Working Paper 93 Correct citation: Geall, S., Shen, W. and Gongbuzeren (2017) Solar PV and Poverty Alleviation in China: Rhetoric and Reality, STEPS Working Paper 93, Brighton: STEPS Centre ISBN: 978-1-78118-366-3 © STEPS 2017 Some rights reserved – see copyright license for details Acknowledgements: The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful reviews of this working paper provided by Ed Brown (Loughborough University) and Dave Ockwell (Global Studies, University of Sussex) and the ESRC for financial support [grant number ES/I021620/1]. They would also like to thank Jan Boyes for her excellent copy-editing skills. For further information please contact: STEPS Centre, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE Tel: +44 (0) 1273915673; Email: [email protected]; web: www.steps-centre.org STEPS Centre publications are published under a Creative Commons Attribution – Non-Commercial – No Derivative Works 3.0 UK: England & Wales Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc- nd/3.0/legalcode) Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor. Non-commercial: You may not use this work for commercial purposes. No Derivative Works: You may not alter, transfer, or build on this work. Users are welcome to copy, distribute, display, translate or perform this work without written permission subject to the conditions set out in the Creative Commons licence. For any reuse or distribution, you must make clear to others the licence terms of this work. If you use the work, we ask that you reference the STEPS Centre website (www.steps-centre.org) and send a copy of the work or a link to its use online to the following address for our archive: STEPS Centre, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RE, UK ([email protected]). Contents List of Figures ..............................................................................................................................................ii Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................... iii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Research Context ................................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 The Rural-Urban Income Gap .......................................................................................................... 2 2.2 China’s Solar Energy at a Crossroads............................................................................................... 3 2.3 Trends in Rural Electrification ......................................................................................................... 4 3. Policy Frameworks ................................................................................................................................. 6 3.1 Policy Design and Institutions ......................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Policy Developments Since 2014 ..................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Policy Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 7 4. Case Study of Guinan County in Qinghai Province ................................................................................ 9 4.1 Introducing Qinghai and Guinan ..................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Solar PV in Qinghai ........................................................................................................................ 11 4.3 User Practices and Perspectives .................................................................................................... 14 4.4 Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 16 5. The Implications for SEPAP .................................................................................................................. 17 6. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 19 References ............................................................................................................................................... 20 i List of Figures Figure 2.1 Development of China’s Solar Energy Sector, 2008 to 2015 (MW) ......................................... 3 Figure 3.1 Governance Structure of SEPAP ............................................................................................... 6 Figure 4.1 Qinghai Province ...................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4.2 Guinan County, Qinghai Province ............................................................................................ 9 Figure 4.3 Solar Cooker Seen Outside Herders’ Winter Home in Guinan County................................... 12 Figure 4.4 State Grid Office Near Qinghai Lake ....................................................................................... 13 Figure 4.5 10 MW Solar Power Plant in Guinan County .......................................................................... 13 Figure 4.6 Solar System Used for Butter Churning All Year Round ......................................................... 15 ii Acronyms CDB China Development Bank CADB China Agriculture Development Bank CCTV China Central Television CPAD State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development CREEI China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute CSR Corporate Social Responsibility EU European Union FIT Feed-in-tariff Mtce Million tonnes of coal equivalent NEA National Energy Administration PAO Poverty Alleviation Office PRC People's Republic of China PV Photovoltaic REDP Renewable Energy Development Project SEPAP Solar Energy for Poverty Alleviation Programme SHP Small Hydro Power US United States iii 1. Introduction In 2014 Chinese leaders and state energy regulators announced an ambitious plan to help alleviate rural poverty through deploying distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in poor areas. The initiative, which is positioned as an integral component of China’s political campaign to eradicate poverty by 2020, aims to add over 10 GW capacity and benefit more than two million households from around 35,000 villages across the country by 2020. The policy aims to generate additional annual income of over 3,000 RMB for each household, mainly through rooftop and small-scale solar systems. From an environmental perspective, the deployment of solar PV can help to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and air pollution by avoiding the greenhouse gases and other pollutants emitted by coal burning, which still make up the largest share of China’s energy mix. China’s central government has in recent years supported a shift away from fossil fuels for these reasons, as well as moving the country towards a position of technology leadership and restructuring domestic industries towards services, innovation and higher value production. Although this Working Paper focuses on a specific Chinese policy approach, it hopes to inform perspectives on energy access and development in other contexts. Much of this literature is dominated by engineering and economics, a 'hardware financing' approach, with less attention to the socio-cultural or political dimensions of these questions (Watson et al. 2012; Ockwell and Byrne 2016; Newell and Bulkeley 2016). Literature informed by the field of socio-technical transitions (Ulsrud et al. 2015; Tyfield et al. 2015; Ahlborg and Sjöstedt 2015; Ockwell and Byrne 2016; Rolffs et al. 2015; Baker et al. 2014; Power et al. 2016; Newell and Mulvaney 2013; Newell and Phillips 2016) has brought greater socio- cultural and evolutionary dimensions to the context of energy transitions, and more recent studies also call for greater attention to political dimensions of energy transitions (for example Meadowcroft 2011; Geels 2014; Kern 2011; Scrase and Smith 2009). In this paper, we trace the emergence and implementation of the solar energy for poverty alleviation programme (SEPAP) by identifying its social, political and economic rationales through a comprehensive analysis of policy documents. Then, through a case study in a county in Qinghai province, one of the more isolated and underdeveloped regions of western China, this paper aims to identify the main challenges for implementing SEPAP and benefitting rural residents in China and to suggest some tentative wider conclusions regarding the dynamics of energy and development policy in China, particularly in the northwest and Tibetan Plateau. The paper is divided into four sections. First, it provides a historical review of rural electrification, poverty alleviation, and the development of the solar energy industry in China. This illustrates that the current development stage of the solar energy industry; the high degree of rural electrification; and the growing income gap between rural and urban populations are the three major factors driving the SEPAP initiative since 2014. Second, it focuses on existing policies around SEPAP by identifying major policy objectives, institutional development, and implementation routes. It also provides a discourse analysis of policy documents to illustrate the key actors and their interests in promoting this initiative. Third, it presents a case study of one of the counties where SEPAP has been implemented in Qinghai Province to investigate the implementation process on the ground. The case study involved brief but intensive field investigation and semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders in October and November 2016. Based on the findings of the policy analysis and case study, the final section discusses the theoretical and practical implications of SEPAP, with particular focus on the role of solar energy in the future energy landscape in rural China, in terms of the energy ladder for rural households and potential for clean energy transition. 1 2. Research Context To understand the drivers and the implications of SEPAP, it is worth understanding three major contexts: the persistence of rural poverty in China, in the context of a political push for poverty alleviation; the overcapacity and curtailment in China’s solar energy industry, and consequent need to encourage distributed solar PV installation; and the current situation for rural electrification, where previous technological preferences, particularly small hydro, are no longer viable. 2.1 The Rural-Urban Income Gap Since initiating market reforms in 1978, China experienced unprecedented economic and social development, with GDP growth averaging nearly ten per cent a year over the past three decades. Along with this rapid economic growth came a dramatic increase in household incomes in both rural and urban areas, which lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty (World Bank 2017). However, incomes in rural areas rose far slower than in urban areas. The average per capita disposable income in urban areas increased from 343 RMB in 1978 to 31,195 RMB in 2015, whereas in rural areas, this figure rose from 134 RMB to 11,422 RMB (National Bureau of Statistics 2016). Throughout the economic reform era, the urban-rural income ratio in China was around 3:1, much higher than the international average of 1.5:1 to 1.6:1 (Knight and Song 1999), even before non-monetary variances in education, medical care, and other social welfare gaps between rural and social areas are taken into account. The rural-urban income gap is exacerbated by unbalanced economic development between provinces. China’s less developed western regions have a higher rural-urban income gap, with some provinces reaching a 4: 1 ratio (Xinhua News Agency, 2010). According to China’s current poverty standard (annual net per capita income of 2,300 RMB in 2010 prices), there were currently 56.30 million poor in rural areas in 2015 (State Council, 2015). The majority this population live in western inland provinces. Since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, poverty alleviation has been elevated to be amongst the highest development priorities in China. Xi has paid many visits to the poorest townships and villages across China and thus signalled a commitment to combat poverty. As a consequence several crucial policy documents have been issued since 2013, echoing this determination to tackle widening inequality and income gap (State Council 2013). In 2014, the Government announced that each year on 17 October 'Poverty Alleviation Day' would be marked to coincide with the United Nations International Day for the Eradication of Poverty. Before Poverty Alleviation Day in 2015 Xi formally announced the goal of eradicating poverty completely in China by 2020 (Xinhua News Agency, 2015). However, addressing the remaining population under the poverty line is a difficult 'last mile problem'. As the case study below illustrates, the majority of this population is located in the most remote and isolated areas of China. Data on the numbers of these households and their income are often outdated and incomplete. As discussed further below, a section of this population is also nomadic and therefore hard to locate and monitor statistically. Local environmental and geographic conditions can make it difficult to improve significantly local livelihoods in a sustainable manner, beyond government subsidies and temporary material assistance. Recent poverty alleviation programmes in China are typically designed with two major criteria: the so- called 'precision' (精准 jingzhun), and the 'industrial' (产业 chanye) requirements. The former emphasises government subsidies and assistance spent on the basis of precise and comprehensive data, so that specific households or villages can be targeted and helped. The latter, 'industrial', approach emphasises the improvement of industrial or productive capabilities of underdeveloped localities by 2 developing creative and innovative industrial facilities, so that these households and villages can become self-sustaining in the long run. SEPAP emerged as an example of this combined approach. 2.2 China’s Solar Energy at a Crossroads The second major driver for SEPAP emerges from the solar energy industry itself. China’s solar PV sector experienced dramatic growth over the past decade. Initially, the industry was largely export oriented, with the dominant share of solar panels produced for overseas markets in Europe, particularly Germany and Spain (Zhang et al 2014). However, declining orders in the wake of the financial crisis, combined with trade disputes in the European Union (EU) and United States (US) in 2008 over alleged Chinese 'dumping' of cheap PV panels, and a fall in the price of polysilicon which hit companies that had hoarded the material, led some Chinese solar manufacturers to the brink of collapse (Urban et al. 2016). China’s Central Government therefore focused on opening the domestic solar energy market as a rescue strategy for the manufacturing sector. Strong supportive measures, such as a favourable feed-in-tariff (FIT), government pilots, subsidy programmes and concessional bidding projects were designed and implemented in a top-down manner to expand solar power generation capacity (Chen and Lees 2016). In addition, the development of solar energy was welcomed by many local governments and large energy utilities and manufacturing corporations as a new site for market opportunities and local economic development (Harrison and Kostka 2013; Shen 2016). Multiple interests, therefore, aligned in promoting this 'strategically important' industry (State Council, 2013b). The rescue plan was successful (see Figure 2.1). By 2013, China had become the world's leading market for solar energy producers; by the end of 2015 it had reached a total installed capacity of more than 43.18 GW (National Energy Administration 2016a). Over 15 GW was installed in 2015 alone, or more than a quarter of the total installation of solar capacity around the globe that year (International Energy Agency 2016a). Production capacity was boosted even further. In fact, the domestic installation of 15 GW only consumed an estimated one-third of China’s total manufacturing capacity (National Energy Administration 2016a). There is, therefore, a persistent over-capacity issue in the solar energy industry. Figure 2.1 Development of China’s Solar Energy Sector, 2008 to 2015 (MW) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Annual Installed Capacity 0 Annual Actual Production 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Production Capacity Source: National Energy Administration and China Photovoltaic Industry Association Furthermore, the rapid expansion of solar installation has outpaced grid connections. Most of this new capacity is in poorer western provinces where solar resources are ample, but local energy consumption is low. Long-distance transmission of this electricity to demand centres in the east is neither economically viable nor technologically practical. As a result, curtailment is rampant (Shen 2016). In 2015, the western provinces of Gansu or Xinjiang had over 25 per cent curtailment rates for solar energy 3