Solar Energy Fundamentals and Modeling Techniques Zekai S¸en Solar Energy Fundamentals and Modeling Techniques Atmosphere, Environment, Climate Change and Renewable Energy 123 Prof.ZekaiS¸en ˙IstanbulTechnicalUniversity FacultyofAeronauticsandAstronautics Dept.Meteorology CampusAyazaga 34469˙Istanbul Turkey ISBN 978-1-84800-133-6 e-ISBN 978-1-84800-134-3 DOI10.1007/978-1-84800-134-3 BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Sen,Zekai Solarenergyfundamentalsandmodelingtechniques: atmosphere,environment,climatechangeandrenewable energy 1.Solarenergy I.Title 621.4’7 ISBN-13:9781848001336 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2008923780 ©2008Springer-VerlagLondonLimited Apartfromanyfairdealingforthepurposesofresearchorprivatestudy,orcriticismorreview,asper- mittedundertheCopyright, DesignsandPatents Act1988,thispublication mayonlybereproduced, storedortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withthepriorpermissioninwritingofthepublish- ers,orinthecaseofreprographicreproductioninaccordancewiththetermsoflicencesissuedbythe CopyrightLicensingAgency.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethosetermsshouldbesentto thepublishers. 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Coverdesign:eStudioCalamarS.L.,Girona,Spain Printedonacid-freepaper 987654321 springer.com Bismillahirrahmanirrahim In thenameof Allahthemostmerciful andthemostbeneficial Preface Atmospheric and environmental pollution as a result of extensive fossil fuel ex- ploitation in almost all human activities has led to some undesirable phenomena thathavenotbeenexperiencedbeforeinknownhumanhistory.Theyarevariedand includeglobalwarming,thegreenhouseaffect,climatechange,ozonelayerdeple- tion,andacidrain.Since1970ithasbeenunderstoodscientificallybyexperiments andresearchthatthesephenomenaarecloselyrelatedtofossilfuelusesbecausethey emitgreenhousegasessuchascarbondioxide(CO )andmethane(CH )whichhin- 2 4 derthelong-waveterrestrialradiationfromescapingintospaceand,consequently, the earth tropospherebecomes warmer. In order to avoid further impacts of these phenomena,the two main alternativesare either to improvethe fossil fuelquality thusreducingtheirharmfulemissionsintotheatmosphereor,moresignificantly,to replacefossilfuelusageasmuchaspossiblewithenvironmentallyfriendly,clean, andrenewableenergysources.Amongthesesources,solarenergycomesatthetop ofthelistduetoitsabundanceandmoreevendistributioninnaturethanothertypes of renewable energy such as wind, geothermal, hydropower, biomass, wave, and tidalenergysources.Itmustbethemainandcommonpurposeofhumanitytode- velopasustainableenvironmentforfuturegenerations.Inthelongrun,theknown limitsof fossilfuelscompelthesocietiesof theworldto workjointlyfortheirre- placementgraduallybyrenewableenergiesratherthanbyimprovingthequalityof fossilsources. Solar radiation is an integral part of different renewable energy resources, in general, and, in particular, it is the main and continuous input variable from the practically inexhaustible sun. Solar energy is expected to play a very significant roleinthefutureespeciallyindevelopingcountries,butitalsohaspotentialinde- velopedcountries.Thematerialpresentedinthisbookhasbeenchosentoprovide a comprehensiveaccountofsolar energymodelingmethods.Forthispurpose,ex- planatorybackgroundmaterialhasbeenintroducedwiththeintentionthatengineers andscientistscanbenefitfromintroductorypreliminariesonthesubjectbothfrom applicationandresearchpointsofview. The main purposeof Chapter1 is to presentthe relationshipof energysources tovarioushumanactivitiesonsocial,economicandotheraspects.Theatmospheric vii viii Preface environmentandrenewableenergyaspectsarecoveredinChapter2.Chapter3pro- videsthebasicastronomicalvariables,theirdefinitionsandusesin thecalculation of the solar radiation (energy) assessment. These basic concepts, definitions, and derivedastronomicalequationsfurnishthefoundationsofthesolarenergyevalua- tionatanygivenlocation.Chapter4providesfirstthefundamentalassumptionsin theclassiclinearmodelswithseveralmodernalternatives.Afterthegeneralreview ofavailableclassicnon-linearmodels,additionalinnovativenon-linearmodelsare presentedin Chapter5 with fundamentaldifferencesand distinctions.Fuzzylogic andgeneticalgorithmapproachesarepresentedforthenon-linearmodelingofsolar radiationfromsunshinedurationdata.ThemainpurposeofChapter6istopresent anddevelopregionalmodelsforanydesiredlocationfromsolarradiationmeasure- ment sites. The use of the geometric functions, inverse distance, inverse distance square,semivariogram,andcumulativesemivariogramtechniquesarepresentedfor solarradiationspatialestimation.Finally,Chapter7givesasummaryofsolarenergy devices. Applications of solar energy in terms of low- and high-temperature collectors aregivenwithfutureresearchdirections.Furthermore,photovoltaicdevicesaredis- cussed for future electricity generationbased on solar power site-exploitationand transmissionbydifferentmeansoverlongdistances,suchasfiber-opticcables.An- otherfutureuseofsolarenergyisitscombinationwithwaterand,asaconsequence, electrolytic generation of hydrogen gas is expected to be another source of clean energy.Thecombinationofsolarenergyandwaterforhydrogengasproductionis calledsolar-hydrogenenergy.Necessaryresearchpotentialsandapplicationpossi- bilitiesarepresentedwithsufficientbackground.Newmethodologiesthatarebound to be used in the future are mentionedand, finally, recommendationsand sugges- tions for future research and application are presented, all with relevant literature reviews. I could not have completed this work without the support, patience, and assistanceofmywifeFatmaS¸en. ˙Istanbul,Çubuklu 15October2007 Contents 1 EnergyandClimateChange..................................... 1 1.1 General................................................... 1 1.2 EnergyandClimate......................................... 3 1.3 EnergyandSociety ......................................... 5 1.4 EnergyandIndustry ........................................ 10 1.5 EnergyandtheEconomy .................................... 12 1.6 EnergyandtheAtmosphericEnvironment...................... 13 1.7 EnergyandtheFuture....................................... 17 References..................................................... 18 2 AtmosphericEnvironmentandRenewableEnergy................. 21 2.1 General................................................... 21 2.2 Weather,Climate,andClimateChange ........................ 22 2.3 AtmosphereandItsNaturalComposition....................... 26 2.4 AnthropogenicCompositionoftheAtmosphere ................. 28 2.4.1 CarbonDioxide(CO )................................ 29 2 2.4.2 Methane(CH )...................................... 30 4 2.4.3 NitrousOxide(N O) ................................. 31 2 2.4.4 Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)........................... 31 2.4.5 WaterVapor(H O)................................... 31 2 2.4.6 Aerosols............................................ 33 2.5 EnergyDynamicsintheAtmosphere .......................... 34 2.6 RenewableEnergyAlternativesandClimateChange ............. 35 2.6.1 SolarEnergy ........................................ 36 2.6.2 WindEnergy........................................ 37 2.6.3 HydropowerEnergy.................................. 38 2.6.4 BiomassEnergy ..................................... 39 2.6.5 WaveEnergy........................................ 40 2.6.6 HydrogenEnergy .................................... 41 2.7 EnergyUnits .............................................. 43 References..................................................... 44 ix x Contents 3 SolarRadiationDeterministicModels ............................ 47 3.1 General................................................... 47 3.2 TheSun .................................................. 47 3.3 Electromagnetic(EM)Spectrum.............................. 51 3.4 EnergyBalanceoftheEarth.................................. 55 3.5 EarthMotion .............................................. 57 3.6 SolarRadiation ............................................ 61 3.6.1 IrradiationPath...................................... 64 3.7 SolarConstant ............................................. 66 3.8 SolarRadiationCalculation .................................. 67 3.8.1 EstimationofClear-SkyRadiation...................... 70 3.9 SolarParameters ........................................... 72 3.9.1 Earth’sEccentricity .................................. 72 3.9.2 SolarTime.......................................... 72 3.9.3 UsefulAngles....................................... 74 3.10 SolarGeometry ............................................ 77 3.10.1 CartesianandSphericalCoordinateSystem .............. 78 3.11 ZenithAngleCalculation .................................... 85 3.12 SolarEnergyCalculations ................................... 87 3.12.1 DailySolarEnergyonaHorizontalSurface .............. 88 3.12.2 SolarEnergyonanInclinedSurface .................... 91 3.12.3 SunriseandSunsetHourAngles........................ 93 References..................................................... 98 4 LinearSolarEnergyModels.....................................101 4.1 General...................................................101 4.2 SolarRadiationandDaylightMeasurement.....................102 4.2.1 InstrumentErrorandUncertainty.......................103 4.2.2 OperationalErrors ...................................104 4.2.3 Diffuse-IrradianceDataMeasurementErrors .............105 4.3 StatisticalEvaluationofModels ..............................106 4.3.1 CoefficientofDetermination(R2) ......................109 4.3.2 CoefficientofCorrelation(r) ..........................110 4.3.3 MeanBiasError,MeanofAbsoluteDeviations, andRootMeanSquareError...........................111 4.3.4 OutlierAnalysis .....................................112 4.4 LinearModel..............................................113 4.4.1 AngströmModel(AM) ...............................116 4.5 SuccessiveSubstitution(SS)Model ...........................120 4.6 UnrestrictedModel(UM)....................................126 4.7 PrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA)Model ...................133 4.8 LinearClusterMethod(LCM)................................140 References.....................................................147 Contents xi 5 Non-LinearSolarEnergyModels ................................151 5.1 General...................................................151 5.2 ClassicNon-LinearModels ..................................151 5.3 SimplePowerModel(SPM) .................................156 5.3.1 EstimationofModelParameters........................157 5.4 ComparisonofDifferentModels..............................159 5.5 SolarIrradiancePolygonModel(SIPM) .......................160 5.6 TripleSolarIrradiationModel(TSIM).........................168 5.7 TripleDrought–SolarIrradiationModel(TDSIM) ...............172 5.8 FuzzyLogicModel(FLM)...................................176 5.8.1 FuzzySetsandLogic.................................177 5.8.2 FuzzyAlgorithmApplicationforSolarRadiation .........179 5.9 Geno-FuzzyModel(GFM) ..................................186 5.10 MonthlyPrincipalComponentModel(MPCM) .................188 5.11 ParabolicMonthlyIrradiationModel(PMIM)...................196 5.12 SolarRadiationEstimationfromAmbientAirTemperature .......202 References.....................................................206 6 SpatialSolarEnergyModels ....................................209 6.1 General...................................................209 6.2 SpatialVariability ..........................................210 6.3 LinearInterpolation.........................................212 6.4 GeometricWeightingFunction ...............................214 6.5 CumulativeSemivariogram(CSV)andWeightingFunction .......216 6.5.1 StandardSpatialDependenceFunction(SDF) ............217 6.6 RegionalEstimation ........................................220 6.6.1 Cross-Validation.....................................221 6.6.2 SpatialInterpolation..................................226 6.7 GeneralApplication ........................................228 References.....................................................236 7 SolarRadiationDevicesandCollectors ...........................239 7.1 General...................................................239 7.2 SolarEnergyAlternatives....................................239 7.3 HeatTransferandLosses ....................................241 7.3.1 Conduction .........................................242 7.3.2 Convection .........................................243 7.3.3 Radiation...........................................244 7.4 Collectors.................................................245 7.4.1 FlatPlateCollectors..................................246 7.4.2 TrackingCollectors ..................................249 7.4.3 Focusing(Concentrating)Collectors ....................250 7.4.4 TiltedCollectors.....................................252 7.4.5 SolarPondCollectors ................................253 7.4.6 Photo-OpticalCollectors..............................253