Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2311 EditedbyG.Goos,J.Hartmanis,andJ.vanLeeuwen 3 Berlin Heidelberg NewYork Barcelona HongKong London Milan Paris Tokyo David Bustard Weiru Liu Roy Sterritt (Eds.) Soft-Ware 2002: Computing in an Imperfect World First International Conference, Soft-Ware 2002 Belfast, Northern Ireland,April 8-10, 2002 Proceedings 1 3 SeriesEditors GerhardGoos,KarlsruheUniversity,Germany JurisHartmanis,CornellUniversity,NY,USA JanvanLeeuwen,UtrechtUniversity,TheNetherlands VolumeEditors DavidBustard WeiruLiu RoySterritt UniversityofUlster FacultyofInformatics SchoolofInformationandSoftwareEngineering JordanstownCampus,Newtownabbey,BT370QB,NorthernIreland E-mail:{dw.bustard/w.liu/r.sterritt}@ulster.ac.uk Cataloging-in-PublicationDataappliedfor DieDeutscheBibliothek-CIP-Einheitsaufnahme Computinginanimperfectworld:firstinternationalconference,software 2002,Belfast,NorthernIreland,April8-10,2002;proceedings/David Bustard...(ed.).-Berlin;Heidelberg;NewYork;Barcelona;HongKong; London;Milan;Paris;Tokyo:Springer,2002 (Lecturenotesincomputerscience;Vol.2311) ISBN3-540-43481-X CRSubjectClassification(1998):D.2,K.6,F.1,I.2,J.1,H.2.8,H.3,H.4 ISSN0302-9743 ISBN3-540-43481-XSpringer-VerlagBerlinHeidelbergNewYork Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialis concerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,re-useofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting, reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherway,andstorageindatabanks.Duplicationofthispublication orpartsthereofispermittedonlyundertheprovisionsoftheGermanCopyrightLawofSeptember9,1965, initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer-Verlag.Violationsare liableforprosecutionundertheGermanCopyrightLaw. Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelbergNewYork amemberofBertelsmannSpringerScience+BusinessMediaGmbH http://www.springer.de ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2002 PrintedinGermany Typesetting:Camera-readybyauthor,dataconversionbyPTP-Berlin,StefanSossna Printedonacid-freepaper SPIN10846571 06/3142 543210 Preface This was the first conference of a new series devoted to the effective handling of softissuesinthedesign,development,andoperationofcomputingsystems.The conference brought together contributors from a range of relevant disciplines, including artificial intelligence, information systems, software engineering, and systemsengineering.Thekeynotespeakers,PieroBonissone,RayPaul,SirTony Hoare, Michael Jackson, and Derek McAuley have interests and experience that collectively span all of these fields. Soft issues involve information or knowledge that is uncertain, incomplete, or contradictory. Examples of where such issues arise include: – requirementsmanagementandsoftwarequalitycontrolinsoftwareengineer- ing, – conflictormultiplesourcesinformationmanagementininformationsystems, – decision making/prediction in business management systems, – quality control in networks and user services in telecommunications, – traditional human rationality modeling in artificial intelligence, – data analysis in machine learning and data mining, – control management in engineering. Theconceptofdealingwithuncertaintybecameprominentintheartificialintelli- gencecommunitynearly20yearsago,whenresearchersrealizedthataddressing uncertainty was an essential part of representing and reasoning about human knowledge in intelligent systems. The main methodologies that have emerged in this area are soft computing and computational intelligence. It was also about 20 years ago that the notion of hard and soft systems thinking emerged from the systems community, articulated by Checkland in his seminal work on Soft Systems Methodology1. This work has influenced informa- tionsystemresearchandpracticeandisbeginningtohaveanimpactonsystems and software engineering. The conference gave researchers and practitioners with an interest in soft issuesanopportunitytolearnfromeachothertoidentifywaysofimprovingthe development of complex computing systems. Theconferencehadastrongindustrialfocus.Inparticular,allofthekeynote speakers had both industrial and academic experience, and the conference con- cluded with a session taking an industrial perspective on soft issues. Also, the first day of the conference was integrated with the 2nd European Workshop on Computational Intelligence in Telecommunications and Multimedia, organized by the Technical Committee C of EUNITE, the European Network on Intelli- gent Technologies for Smart Adaptive Systems. This has a significant industrial membership. There were two EUNITE keynote speakers: Ben Azvine, chairman 1 Peter Checkland, Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, Wiley, 1981 VI Preface oftheTechnicalCommitteeC,andJohnBighamwhohasmanyyears’experience in applying computational intelligence in telecommunications. The SS Titanic was chosen as a visual image for the conference because it represents the uncertainty associated with any engineering endeavor and is a reminderthattheTitanicwasbuiltinBelfast–indeedjustbesidetheconference venue. Coincidentally, the conference took place between the date the Titanic first set sail, 2 April 1912, and its sinking on 15 April 1912. Fortunately, the organizing committee is not superstitious! A total of 24 papers were selected for presentation at the conference. We are very grateful to all authors who submitted papers and to the referees who assessed them. We also thank Philip Houston and Paul McMenamin of Nortel Networks (Northern Ireland) whose participation in a collaborative project with the Uni- versity of Ulster provided initial support and encouragement for the conference. The project, Jigsaw, was funded by the Industrial Research and Technology Unit of the Northern Ireland Department of Enterprise, Trade, and Investment. Further support for the conference was provided by other industry and govern- ment collaborators and sponsors, especially Des Vincent (CITU-NI), Gordon Bell (Liberty Technology IT), Bob Barbour and Tim Brundle (Centre for Com- petitiveness), Dave Allen (Charteris), and Billy McClean (Momentum). Internally,theorganizationoftheconferencebenefittedfromcontributionsby AdrianMoore,PatLundy,DavidMcSherry,EdwinCurran,MaryShapcott,Al- fons Schuster, and Kenny Adamson. Adrian Moore deserves particular mention for his imaginative design and implementation of the Web site, building on the Titanic theme. We are also very grateful to Sarah Dooley and Pauleen Marshall whose administrative support and cheery manner were invaluable throughout. Finally, we thank Rebecca Mowat and Alfred Hofmann of Springer-Verlag for their help and advice in arranging publication of the conference proceedings. February 2002 Dave Bustard Weiru Liu Roy Sterritt Organization SOFT-WARE 2002, the 1st International Conference on Computing in an Im- perfect World, was organized by the Faculty of Informatics, University of Ulster incooperationwithEUNITEIBAC:TelecommunicationandMultimediaCom- mittee. Organizing Committee Dave Bustard General Conference Chair Weiru Liu EUNITE Workshop Chair Philip Houston Nortel Networks, Belfast Labs Des Vincent CITU (NI) Billy McClean Momentum Ken Adamson Industry Edwin Curran Applications and Finance Pat Lundy Local Events David McSherry Full Submissions Adrian Moore Web Alfons Schuster Short Submissions Mary Shapcott Local Arrangements Roy Sterritt Publicity and Proceedings Program Committee Behnam Azvine BT, Ipswich, UK Salem Benferhat IRIT, Universit´e Paul Sabatier, France Keith Bennett Durham University, UK Dan Berry University of Waterloo, Canada Jean Bezivin University of Nantes, France Prabir Bhattacharya Panasonic Technologies Inc., USA Danny Crookes Queen’s University, UK Janusz Granat National Institute of Telecoms, Poland Rachel Harrison University of Reading, UK Janusz Kacprzyk Warsaw University of Technology, Poland Stefanos Kollias National Technical Univ. of Athens, Greece Rudolf Kruse Otto-von-Guericke-University of Magdeburg, Germany Manny Lehman Imperial College, UK Paul Lewis Lancaster University, UK Xiaohui Liu Brunel University, UK Abe Mamdani Imperial College, UK Trevor Martin University of Bristol, UK VIII Organization Stephen McKearney University of Bournemouth, UK Andreas Pitsillides University of Cyprus, Cyprus Simon Parsons University of Liverpool, UK Henri Prade IRIT, Universit´e Paul Sabatier, France Marco Ramoni Harvard Medical School, USA Alessandro Saffiotti University of Orebro, Sweden Prakash Shenoy University of Kansas, USA Philippe Smets Universit´e Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium Martin Spott BT Ipswich, UK Frank Stowell De Montfort University, UK Jim Tomayko Carnegie Mellon University, USA Athanasios Vasilakos University of Crete, Greece Frans Voorbraak University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands Didar Zowghi University of Technology, Sydney, Australia Additional Reviewers Werner Dubitzky Gerard Parr Bryan Scotney Sally McClean William Scanlon George Wilkie Mike McTear Sponsoring Institutions – University of Ulster – EUNITE - EUropean Network on Intelligent TEchnologies for Smart Adap- tive Systems – Nortel Networks, Belfast Labs. – IRTU - Industrial Research and Technology Unit – Liberty IT – INCOSE – British Computer Society – Momentum – Centre for Competitiveness – Charteris – CSPT - Centre for Software Process Technologies Table of Contents Technical Session 1 Overview of Fuzzy-RED in Diff-Serv Networks......................... 1 L. Rossides, C. Chrysostomou, A. Pitsillides (University of Cyprus), A. Sekercioglu (Monash University, Australia) An Architecture for Agent-Enhanced Network Service Provisioning through SLA Negotiation ........................................... 14 David Chieng (Queen’s University of Belfast), Ivan Ho (University of Ulster), Alan Marshall (Queen’s University of Belfast), Gerard Parr (University of Ulster) Facing Fault Management as It Is, Aiming for What You Would Like It to Be............................................ 31 Roy Sterritt (University of Ulster) Enabling Multimedia QoS Control with Black-Box Modelling............ 46 Gianluca Bontempi, Gauthier Lafruit, (IMEC Belgium) Technical Session 2 Using Markov Chains for Link Prediction in Adaptive Web Sites ......... 60 Jianhan Zhu, Jun Hong, John G. Hughes (University of Ulster) Classification of Customer Call Data in the Presence of Concept Drift and Noise ............................................ 74 Michaela Black, Ray Hickey (University of Ulster) A Learning System for Decision Support in Telecommunications ......... 88 Filip Zˇelezn´y (Czech Technical University), Jiˇr´ı Z´ıdgek (Atlantis Telecom), Olga Sˇtˇepa´nkov´a (Czech Technical University) Adaptive User Modelling in an Intelligent Telephone Assistant........... 102 Trevor P. Martin, Benham Azvine (BTexact Technologies) Technical Session 3 A Query-Driven Anytime Algorithm for Argumentative and Abductive Reasoning ........................................... 114 Rolf Haenni (University of California, Los Angeles) Proof Length as an Uncertainty Factor in ILP ......................... 128 Gilles Richard, Fatima Zohra Kettaf (IRIT, Universit´e Paul Sabatier, France) X Table of Contents Paraconsistency in Object-Oriented Databases ........................ 141 RajivBagai(WichitaStateUniversity,US),ShelleneJ.Kelley(Austin College, US) Decision Support with Imprecise Data for Consumers................... 151 Gergely Luka´cs (University of Karlsruhe, Germany) Genetic Programming: A Parallel Approach ........................... 166 Wolfgang Golubski (University of Siegen, Germany) Software Uncertainty ............................................... 174 Manny M. Lehman (Imperial College, University of London, UK), J.F. Ramil (The Open University, UK) Technical Session 4 Temporal Probabilistic Concepts from Heterogeneous Data Sequences .... 191 Sally McClean, Bryan Scotney, Fiona Palmer (University of Ulster) Handling Uncertainty in a Medical Study of Dietary Intake during Pregnancy..................................... 206 Adele Marshall (Queen’s University, Belfast), David Bell, Roy Sterritt (University of Ulster) Sequential Diagnosis in the Independence Bayesian Framework .......... 217 David McSherry (University of Ulster) Static Field Approach for Pattern Classification........................ 232 Dymitr Ruta, Bogdan Gabrys (University of Paisley) Inferring Knowledge from Frequent Patterns........................... 247 Marzena Kryszkiewicz (Warsaw University of Technology, Poland) Anytime Possibilistic Propagation Algorithm .......................... 263 Nahla Ben Amor (Institut Sup´erieur de Gestion, Tunis), Salem Benferhat (IRIT, Universit´e Paul Sabatier, France), Khaled Mellouli (Institut Sup´erieur de Gestion, Tunis) Technical Session 5 Macro Analysis of Techniques to Deal with Uncertainty in Information Systems Development: Mapping Representational Framing Influences ..... 280 CarlAdams(UniversityofPortsmouth,UK),DavidE.Avison(ESSEC Business School, France)