Social Trust, Anarchy, and International Confl ict 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd ii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2211 AAMM 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd iiii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2211 AAMM Social Trust, Anarchy, and International Confl ict Michael P. Jasinski 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd iiiiii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2211 AAMM SOCIAL TRUST, ANARCHY, AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT Copyright © Michael P. Jasinski, 2011. All rights reserved. First published in 2011 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States - a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN: 978–0–230–11317–6 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jasinski, Michael P. Social trust, anarchy, and international confl ict / Michael P. Jasinski. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978–0–230–11317–6 (alk. paper) 1. War. 2. War—Causes. 3. Trust—Social aspects. 4. Politics and war. 5. State, The. I. Title. JZ6385.J37 2010 303.6’6—dc22 2010040862 A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by MPS Limited, A Macmillan Company First edition: April 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Printed in the United States of America. 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd iivv 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2222 AAMM Contents List of Tables vi Acknowledgments vii 1 Introduction 1 2 Democratic Peace and Diversionary War 9 3 Anarchy, States, and Nations 29 4 Social Trust and Its Origins 47 5 Overcoming Particularism 63 6 The Social Trust Theory of International Confl ict 77 7 Research Design 91 8 Results 109 9 The Outbreak of World War I 127 10 Analysis and Conclusions 159 References 173 Index 195 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd vv 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2222 AAMM List of Tables 7.1 Corruption Perception Index (CPI) aggregate values 1990–2001 99 8.1 Incidence of domestic political confl ict 109 8.2 Presence of minorities at risk (MARs) as a function of social trust 112 8.3 Democratic peace test at state pair (dyadic) level 113 8.4 Confl ict initiation test with social trust test as a joint attribute 114 8.5 Social trust as a state attribute test 117 8.6 Confl ict initiation test with social trust quartiles as dummy variables 118 8.7 Confl ict targeting test 120 8.8 Confl ict targeting test with social trust quartiles as dummy variables 122 9.1 Economic growth and social trust levels of major European powers in 1914 154 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd vvii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2222 AAMM Acknowledgments This book would not have seen the light of day without the comments, advice, and support of a wide variety of individuals. First and foremost of those is Professor Markus Crepaz who, during my doctoral studies at the University of Georgia, not only pulled the curtains on the world of academic research in a way that all but predetermined my future career choices, but was also responsible for planting the seeds of the thought process which eventually germinated with this book. I also owe a considerable debt of gratitude to Professors Jeff Berejikian and Jaroslav Tir for introducing me into the subfi elds of political decision making and international confl ict. I doubt I could have written this book without the guidance provided by these three individuals, each of whom strongly infl uenced my thinking on these matters. I also cannot understate the support I received from my dearest companions in life, namely, Cordelia, Konrad, and Zosia, who took turns as sources of encouragement, motivation, and sanity, and from my father-in-law Professor Emeritus Charles Bowlus who initiated numerous discussions on the appli- cability of the theoretical model developed within this volume to the study of medieval confl icts. Last but not least, recognition must be given to my students in the undergraduate Political Psychology class I taught during the Spring 2010 semester, whose active participation in the discussions of many of the issues addressed within this book was of great help in clarifying my thoughts and improving this manuscript. 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd vviiii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2222 AAMM 99778800223300111133117766__0011__pprreevviiiiii..iinndddd vviiiiii 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::2222 AAMM CHAPTER 1 Introduction In the summer of 2005 my family and I were marking that year’s Memorial Day by visiting for the fi rst time the most recent addi- tions to the National Mall, namely, the FDR Memorial and the World War II Memorial. While I was deeply impressed with the simple and poignant FDR Memorial, the World War II Memorial at fi rst left me deeply puzzled. With a deep and long-standing interest in the history and politics of the confl ict, and having seen such memo- rials in other countries, I felt that the design of the memorial was quite unlike any other. For one, none of the big issues over which that war was fought seemed adequately refl ected in the choice of a design consisting of individual columns representing U.S. states and terri- tories arranged in two semicircles facing each other across a set of fountains. To put it in different terms, what seemed missing from the World War II Memorial was the war itself. Happily, a U.S. Park Service brochure very helpfully eliminated my confusion by inform- ing me the memorial was intended to commemorate the American unity experienced during the confl ict. Upon reading that explanation I couldn’t help being struck by this predominantly inward-looking interpretation of the signifi cance of that tremendously consequential global armed confl ict. Given the importance of the issues that were decided on the fi elds of battle in that confl ict, why was America’s unity chosen as the most important aspect of that confl ict to commemo- rate? But even more troubling was the growing realization that the memorial design was squarely at odds with its stated intent, for the impression given by the two sets of individual and separate columns arranged in a broken oval was of both fragmentation and division. I remember myself only half-jokingly remarking that the builders accidentally constructed a U.S. Civil War Memorial, so striking was the internal disunity and confl ict embodied in that monument. 99778800223300111133117766__0022__cchh0011..iinndddd 11 22//55//22001111 1100::5522::3399 AAMM