Social Machines The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity ― James Hendler Alice M. Mulvehill Social Machines The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity James Hendler Alice M. Mulvehill Social Machines: The Coming Collision of Artificial Intelligence, Social Networking, and Humanity James Hendler Alice M. Mulvehill Albany, New York, USA Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA ISBN-13 (pbk): 978-1-4842-1157-1 ISBN-13 (electronic): 978-1-4842-1156-4 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4842-1156-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016950738 Copyright © 2016 by James Hendler and Alice M. Mulvehill This work is subject to copyright. 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Readers can also access source code at SpringerLink in the Supplementary Material section for each chapter. Printed on acid-free paper Jim: To Marjorie Hendler, Terry Horowit, and Sharone Horowit-Hendler. Alice: To Robert, Irwin, and Ray. Together: To Michael Dean, a much-missed colleague and friend to us both. Contents at a Glance About the Authors .............................................................................xi About the Technical Reviewer ........................................................xiii Acknowledgments ...........................................................................xv ■ Chapter 1: Introduction: Why This Book? .......................................3 ■ Chapter 2: Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? ...................................15 ■ Chapter 3: The Games We Play .....................................................31 ■ Chapter 4: The Limits of Humans .................................................59 ■ Chapter 5: What Computers Can’t Do–Yet ....................................73 ■ Chapter 6: Augmenting Human Capabilities with AI ....................99 ■ Chapter 7: Social Machines: Embracing the Blur .......................115 ■ Chapter 8: Social Challenges for the Social Machine .................139 ■ Chapter 9: Conclusion: Social Machines and the New Future ......165 Index ..............................................................................................169 v Contents About the Authors .............................................................................xi About the Technical Reviewer ........................................................xiii Acknowledgments ...........................................................................xv ■ Chapter 1: Introduction: Why This Book? .......................................3 Who Are the Authors? ..............................................................................4 Why Read This Book? ..............................................................................5 A Brief History of AI .................................................................................7 Social Machines ......................................................................................9 Risks and Challenges ............................................................................10 What Lies Ahead for the Reader ............................................................11 What This Book Is Not About ...................................................................................13 ■ Chapter 2: Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? ...................................15 Going to the Doctor ...............................................................................15 Could an Intelligent Computer Be Your Next Doctor? ............................17 The Situation Today ................................................................................................17 The Not Too Distant Future ....................................................................17 Cognitive Computing Technology ............................................................................18 From Individual to Network ....................................................................................21 Other AI Systems in Healthcare ..............................................................................22 So Who Will Be Your Next Doctor? .........................................................27 vii ■ CONTENTS ■ Chapter 3: The Games We Play .....................................................31 Obvious Differences? ............................................................................31 Computers Play Chess ............................................................................................34 Starting Simple: Tic-tac-toe ....................................................................................36 From Tic-Tac-Toe to Chess .....................................................................................41 Why Computers Are Good at Chess ........................................................................45 Go, the Current Challenge ......................................................................48 Other Games ...........................................................................................................50 How Do Humans Play Games?................................................................................54 Beyond Games ........................................................................................................57 ■ Chapter 4: The Limits of Humans .................................................59 Problem Solving ....................................................................................59 Memory and Aging ..................................................................................................62 Emotion and Stress ...............................................................................64 Socialization and Mobility .......................................................................................67 Can Machines Augment Human Limits? ................................................69 ■ Chapter 5: What Computers Can’t Do–Yet ....................................73 Getting Machines to Understand the Way People Use Language ..........74 Ambiguity in Language ...........................................................................................77 Understanding the World We Live In .......................................................................81 Understanding What They Perceive .......................................................87 The Problem of Context ..........................................................................................89 What About Creativity? ..........................................................................96 ■ Chapter 6: Augmenting Human Capabilities with AI ....................99 Human Enhancements: Now and the Near Future ................................99 Enhanced Problem Solving ...................................................................................100 Fatigue and Stress ..............................................................................101 viii ■ CONTENTS Individualized Support Technology ......................................................103 Building User Interfaces ......................................................................105 Human Enhancements: Near Future and Beyond ................................107 Personal Assistants .............................................................................108 Enhancing Memory .............................................................................110 Beyond the Individual ...........................................................................................111 ■ Chapter 7: Social Machines: Embracing the Blur .......................115 Human Computation ............................................................................118 Games with a Purpose and Citizen Science ........................................121 Wikipedia: The People’s Encyclopedia .................................................126 Artifi cial Intelligence Needs Social Machines .....................................131 Watson and Wikipedia ..........................................................................................131 Deep Learning and Labeled Data..........................................................................133 Social Machines Need AI .....................................................................135 ■ Chapter 8: Social Challenges for the Social Machine .................139 The Technology Development Cycle ....................................................140 Technology for the Individual ................................................................................141 AI Technology and Warfare ...................................................................................146 Managing Cognitive Support Technology ..............................................................153 Extending and Maintaining Cognitive Computing Technology ..............................156 The Limits of Learning ..........................................................................................158 The Wisdom of the Crowd or the Madness of the Mob .......................161 ■ Chapter 9: Conclusion: Social Machines and the New Future ......165 Index ..............................................................................................169 ix About the Authors J ames H endler is the Director of the Institute for Data Exploration and Applications and the Tetherless World Professor of Computer, Web, and Cognitive Sciences at RPI. He also serves as a Director of the UK’s charitable Web Science Trust. Hendler has authored over 350 books, technical papers, and articles in the areas of Semantic Web, artificial intelligence, agent-based computing, and high performance processing. One of the originators of the “Semantic Web,” Hendler was the recipient of a 1995 Fulbright Foundation Fellowship, is a former member of the US Air Force Science Advisory Board, and is a Fellow of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence, the British Computer Society, the IEEE, and the AAAS. He is also the former Chief Scientist of the Information Systems Office at the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and was awarded a US Air Force Exceptional Civilian Service Medal in 2002. He is also the first computer scientist to serve on the Board of Reviewing editors for Science. In 2010, Hendler was named one of the 20 most innovative professors in America by P layboy magazine and was selected as an “Internet Web Expert” by the US government. In 2012, he was one of the inaugural recipients of the Strata Conference “Big Data” awards for his work on large-scale open government data, and he is a columnist and associate editor of the B ig Data journal. In 2013, he was appointed as the Open Data Advisor to New York State and in 2015 was appointed a member of the US Homeland Security Science and Technology Advisory Committee, and in 2016 became a member of the US National Academy Board on Research Data and Information. Alice M. Mulvehill is a research scientist and provides consulting through her company, Memory Based Research, LLC. She was previously a lead scientist at Raytheon/BBN Technologies where she led the development of several advanced decision support systems for the Air Force and DARPA. Prior to joining BBN she worked for The MITRE Corporation as a researcher, specializing in knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, case-based reasoning, and planning. While at MITRE she was part of early research teams that explored the use of Artificial Intelligence techniques for the development of planning and scheduling systems. She was a participant xi ■ ABOUT THE AUTHORS in the DARPA/Rome Lab Planning Initiative and participated in the development of operationally-oriented AI-based systems for DARPA, the Air Force, and NASA. She has authored or co-authored numerous technical papers in the areas of knowledge acquisition and representation, model development, and adaptation; case-based reasoning; Semantic Web technology; and applications of these technologies to support logistics, planning, and prediction. She is a senior member of the Association for Artificial Intelligence and a member of IEEE and ACM. She currently provides consulting services to support the research and development of advanced information system technology and has an adjunct position at the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Nursing, where she provides guest lectures on technology. Mulvehill took her PhD in Information Science from the University of Pittsburgh. xii