Smartening up with Artificial Intelligence (AI) - What’s in it for Germany and its Industrial Sector? Preface Artificial intelligence (AI) is finally bringing a multitude of capabilities to machines which were long thought to belong exclusively to the human realm: processing natural language or visual information, recognizing patterns, and decision making. While AI undoubtedly holds great economic potential for the whole world, in this report we explain how and where AI will likely affect the German industrial sector by exploring several questions: Which subindustries are most strongly affected by the automation potential of AI? What are the most promising use cases? What are pragmatic recommendations for managers of industrial players planning to harness the power of AI? We describe several use cases in which we highlight the impact of AI and aim to quantify it. These use cases were carefully selected based on their economic potential and their ability to demonstrate the benefits of AI in practice. We do not claim that AI – despite its enormous potential – is the silver bullet for every business problem. We realize that AI is very often the enabler for performance improvements whose actual realization requires changing business processes. It is a rapidly evolving field. Thus, the present report needs to be understood as a peek into the future based on the current state of the art. With these caveats we are confident that this report will provide managers in the German industrial sector with valuable guidance on how they can benefit from AI. 3 4 Acknowledgements This study was conducted by McKinsey & Company, Inc. We wish to express our appre- ciation and gratitude to UnternehmerTUM’s1 artificial intelligence application unit for their support and valuable contributions. The authors would especially like to thank: Andreas Liebl, Partner New Venture Creation, UnternehmerTUM Alexander Waldmann, Visionary Lead AI, UnternehmerTUM 1 UnternehmerTUM, founded in 2002, is one of the leading centers for entrepreneurship and business creation in Europe. 5 6 Contents Executive summary ......................................................................................................8 1. AI is ready to scale ................................................................................................10 2. AI will increase productivity and transform the German economy ...........................14 3. Players in the industrial sector should consider eight use cases of AI to achieve the next level of performance .......................................................................................18 3.1. Product and service improvement use case .....................................................22 3.2. Manufacturing operations use cases .................................................................24 3.3. Business process use cases ............................................................................32 4. Players in the industrial sector should follow five pragmatic recommendations for enabling AI-based performance improvements ...............................................38 Outlook: Get started early with the journey towards a fully AI-enabled organization ...............................................................................................................44 Appendix: Nomenclature and terminology of AI ..................................................................... 45 Important notice .....................................................................................................................47 7 Executive summary Self-learning machines are the essence of artificial intelligence (AI). While concepts already date back more than 50 years, only recently have technological advances enabled suc- cessful implementation at industrial scale. According to the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), at least 30% of activities in 62% of German occupations can be automated, which is at a similar level as the US2. Freed-up capacity can and needs to be put to new use in value-adding activities to support the health of Germany’s economy. AI has proven to be the core enabler of this automation based on advances in such fields as natural language processing or visual object recognition. Highly developed economies, like Germany, with a high GDP per capita and challenges such as a quickly aging population will increasingly need to rely on automation based on AI to achieve its GDP targets. About one-third of Germany’s GDP aspiration for 2030 depends on productivity gains. Automation fueled by AI is one of the most significant sources of productivity. By becoming one of the earliest adopters of AI, Germany could even exceed its 2030 GDP target by 4%3. However, if the country adopts AI more slowly –and productivity is not increased by any other means – it could lag behind its 2030 GDP target by up to one-third. AI is expected to lift performance across all industries and especially in those with a high share of predictable tasks such as Germany’s industrial sector. AI-enabled work could raise productivity in Germany by 0.8 to 1.4% annually. We selected eight use cases covering three essential business areas, (products and services, manufacturing operations, and business processes) to highlight AI’s great potential in the industrial sector. Products and services: • Highly autonomous vehicles are expected to make up 10 to 15% of global car sales in 2030 with expected two-digit annual growth rates by 2040. The efficient, reliable, and integrated data processing that these cars require can only be realized with AI. Manufacturing operations: • Predictive maintenance enhanced by AI allows for better prediction and avoidance of machine failure by combining data from advanced Internet of Things (IoT) sensors and maintenance logs as well as external sources. Asset productivity increases of up to 20% are possible, and overall maintenance costs may be reduced by up to 10%. • Collaborative and context-aware robots will improve production throughput based on AI- enabled human-machine interaction in labor-intensive settings. Thereby, productivity increa- ses of up to 20% are feasible for certain tasks – even when tasks are not fully automatable. • Yield enhancement in manufacturing powered by AI will result in decreased scrap rates and testing costs by linking thousands of variables across machinery groups and sub- processes. E.g., in the semiconductor industry, the use of AI can lead to a reduction in yield detraction by up to 30%. 2 See MGI “A future that works,” January 2017. 3 Assumption: Displaced labor is redeployed into productive uses. 8 • Automated quality testing can be realized using AI. By employing advanced image recognition techniques for visual inspection and fault detection, productivity increases of up to 50% are possible. Specifically, AI-based visual inspection based on image recognition may increase defect detection rates by up to 90% as compared to human inspection. Business processes: • AI-enhanced supply chain management greatly improves forecasting accuracy while simultaneously increasing granularity and optimizing stock replenishment. Reductions between 20 and 50% in forecasting errors are feasible. Lost sales due to products not being available can be reduced by up to 65% and inventory reductions of 20 to 50% are achievable. • The application of machine learning to enable high-performance R&D projects has large potential. R&D cost reductions of 10 to 15% and time-to-market improvements of up to 10% are expected. • Business support function automation will ensure improvements in both process quality and efficiency. Automation rates of 30% are possible across functions. For the specific example of IT service desks, automation rates of 90% are expected. Our findings concerning AI – as well as our observations of the most successful players in both the industrial and adjacent sectors – reveal five effective recommendations that address the challenges of AI and help get firms in the industrial sector started on their AI journey: • Get a grasp of what AI can do, prioritize use cases, and don’t lose sight of the economics – without a business case no innovation survives. • Develop core analytical capabilities internally but also leverage third-party resources – trained people are scarce. • Store granular data where possible and make flat or unstructured data usable – it is the fuel for creating value. • Leverage domain knowledge to boost the AI engine – specialized know-how is an enabler to capture AI’s full potential. • Make small and fast steps through pilots, testing, and simulations – the AI transformation does not require large up-front investments, but agility is a prerequisite for success. Beyond deciding where and how to best employ AI, an organizational culture open to the collaboration of humans and machines is crucial for getting the most out of AI. Trust is among the key mindsets and attitudes of successful human-machine collaboration. Initially, cultural resistance may be strong because the relationship between the inner workings of an artificially intelligent machine and the results it produces can be rather obscure. In a sense, it is no longer the algorithm but mainly the data used to train it that leads to a certain result. Humans will need some time to adjust to this shift. Getting started early not only helps produce results quickly but also helps speed up an organization’s journey toward embracing the full potential of AI. 9 1. AI is ready to scale 1100