UUnniivveerrssiittyy ooff SSoouutthh FFlloorriiddaa DDiiggiittaall CCoommmmoonnss @@ UUnniivveerrssiittyy ooff SSoouutthh FFlloorriiddaa USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations USF Graduate Theses and Dissertations 3-26-2009 SSmmaarrtt GGrriidd RReelliiaabbiilliittyy AAsssseessssmmeenntt UUnnddeerr VVaarriiaabbllee WWeeaatthheerr CCoonnddiittiioonnss Arif Islam University of South Florida Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/etd Part of the American Studies Commons, and the Electrical and Computer Engineering Commons SScchhoollaarr CCoommmmoonnss CCiittaattiioonn Islam, Arif, "Smart Grid Reliability Assessment Under Variable Weather Conditions" (2009). USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations. https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/etd/3483 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the USF Graduate Theses and Dissertations at Digital Commons @ University of South Florida. It has been accepted for inclusion in USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ University of South Florida. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Smart Grid Reliability Assessment Under Variable Weather Conditions by Arif Islam A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Electrical Engineering College of Engineering University of South Florida Major Professor: Alexander Domijan, Jr., Ph.D Huseyin Arslan, Ph.D Thomas L. Crisman, Ph.D James R. Mihelcic, Ph.D Stephen E. Saddow, Ph.D Date of Approval: March 26, 2009 Keywords: Power Distribution System, Reliability Analysis, Reliability Improvement, Microgrid, Reconfiguration for Restoration © Copyright 2010, Arif Islam DEDICATION To my parents Sarwat Perveen and Sarwat Islam Brothers Humayun and Asif, Sisters Darakhshan, Kehkashan and Shehla To my wife Yasmeen And to my Lovely daughters Anam & Sanya ACKNOWLEDGMENT It has been wonderful experience working with my supervisor Dr. Alex Domijan. We have been together for many years; successfully winning many competitive projects with me being the co-principle investigator. It is this joint effort and constant motivation of Dr. Domijan that today I am able to work towards Ph.D degree. I would like to thank my committee members, Dr. Huseyin Arslan, Dr. Thomas L. Crisman, Dr. James R. Mihelcic, and Dr. Stephen E. Saddow for their generous advice and interest. I would like to pass on my special thanks to Dr. Aleksandar Damnjanovic for his continuous support and direction for helping me complete my research work. I would also like to thank the academic and administrative staff in the Department of Electrical Engineering and the Dean’s office, where I am a regular with requests to manage various projects. I want to thank the wonderful researchers and professors at the Power Center for Utility Explorations (PCUE). I would like to thank my siblings, who have given me every opportunity to work on my goals of gaining knowledge. I would like to give the heartiest thanks to my parents who have made countless sacrifices, and shown endless support to make me a successful man. None of this was possible without their endless support. I would like to thank my friends for all their support and advice. Finally I would like to thank my unconditional supporter and endless motivator; my wife Yasmeen. She is my biggest critic; wanting me to be the best in my professional and personal life. Yasmeen is always there to motivate me during times of difficulty, when I have spent endless hours designing and developing various novel ideas with no view of the end results. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES.............................................................................................................vi LIST OF FIGURES..........................................................................................................vii LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS..........................................................xi ABSTRACT......................................................................................................................xii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................1 1.1 Background of the Study........................................................................................1 1.2 Objective and Scope of the Research......................................................................6 1.3 Main Contributions.................................................................................................7 1.4 Outline of Dissertation............................................................................................8 1.5 Publications Related to this Research.....................................................................9 CHAPTER 2: SMART GRID: A MODERN POWER SYSTEMS.................................11 2.1 The Need to Overhaul Aging Grid Systems.........................................................11 2.2 Modern Power Systems and Smart Grids.............................................................13 2.3 Expectations from Modern Power Systems and Smart Grid................................17 2.4 Smart Grid’s Main Methodologies, Strategies, and Processes.............................18 2.4.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)...................................................18 2.4.2 Home Area Network and New Products and Services................................19 2.4.3 Distributed Generation.................................................................................20 2.4.4 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)...................................................20 2.4.5 Transmission/Substation Automation..........................................................21 i 2.4.6 Distribution System Enhancements.............................................................21 2.4.7 Central Control Center.................................................................................23 2.4.8 Cyber Security.............................................................................................24 2.4.9 Integration....................................................................................................25 2.4.10 Integration of Transmission/Substation Intelligence.................................29 CHAPTER 3: SMARTGRID RELIABILITY AND AVAILABILITY...........................31 3.1 Introduction to Smart Grid Power Quality, Reliability and Availability..............31 3.1.1 Relationship of Power Quality, Reliability, and Availability......................32 3.2 Power System Reliability, Availability Metrics, and Indices...............................34 3.2.1 Reliability.....................................................................................................34 3.2.2 Availability..................................................................................................36 3.2.3 Reliability Indices........................................................................................36 3.3 Interruption Causes and Modeling........................................................................37 3.3.1 Equipment Failure........................................................................................37 3.3.1.1 Transformers.......................................................................................38 3.3.1.2 Underground Cables...........................................................................40 3.3.1.3 Overhead Lines...................................................................................41 3.3.1.4 Circuit Breakers..................................................................................42 3.3.2 Weather Conditions.....................................................................................42 3.3.2.1 Wind....................................................................................................44 3.3.2.2 Ice Storms...........................................................................................47 3.3.2.3 Heat Storms.........................................................................................49 3.3.2.4 Rain.....................................................................................................49 ii 3.3.2.5 Lightning Strikes.................................................................................52 3.3.2.6 Temperature........................................................................................55 3.4 Optimization of Component Modeling.................................................................57 3.4.1 Area Under Study........................................................................................58 3.4.2 Data Analysis and Processing......................................................................61 3.4.3 Combined Effects of Modeled Parameters..................................................65 3.4.4 Design and Risk Assessment for a Predictor...............................................70 CHAPTER 4: SMART GRID RELIABILITY PARAMETERS AND INDICES...........77 4.1 Probability Distribution Functions........................................................................77 4.1.1 Normal Distribution Function......................................................................79 4.1.2 Exponential Distribution Function...............................................................79 4.2 Component Reliability Parameters......................................................................80 4.3 Component Reliability Data.................................................................................81 4.3.1 Overhead and Underground Lines...............................................................81 4.3.2 Power Transformers.....................................................................................82 4.3.3 Power Generators.........................................................................................82 4.4 Smart Grid Reliability Indices..............................................................................82 CHAPTER 5: NORMALIZATION OF RELIABILITY INDICES.................................85 5.1 Performance and Reliability Indices.....................................................................85 5.2 Baseline Comparison and Other Methods............................................................86 5.3 Assumptions and Statistical Tools........................................................................89 5.4 A Novel Method...................................................................................................91 5.5 Effectiveness of Results......................................................................................101 iii 5.6 Assessment and Limitations...............................................................................105 CHAPTER 6: MODELING METHODS FOR SMART GRIDS..................................109 6.1 System Modeling and Analysis..........................................................................110 6.1.1 Markov Modeling of Smart Grid...............................................................111 6.1.2 Modeling of the Smart Grid with a Boolean Logic Driven Markov Process (BDMP)...............................................................................................................114 6.1.3 Markov Modeling of Smart Grid Under Variable Weather Condition......117 7. SMART GRID MODELING AND ANALYSIS......................................................120 7.1 System with Distributed Generator (DG)...........................................................121 7.1.1 System with no DG and no Influence of Weather.....................................122 7.1.2 System with no DG and with Normal Weather Conditions.......................124 7.1.3 System with DG and No Influence of Weather.........................................124 7.1.4 System with DG and Alternative Weather Conditions, Normal and Stormy Weather...............................................................................................................126 7.2 System with Photovoltaic (PV) and Energy Storage System.............................130 7.2.1 System with no PV and Battery.................................................................132 7.2.2 System with PV and Energy Storage System and no Influence of Weather .............................................................................................................................132 7.2.3 System with PV and Energy Storage System, and Alternative Weather Conditions, Normal and Stormy Weather...........................................................135 7.3. System with Wind Generator and Energy Storage System...............................140 7.3.1 System with no Wind Generator and Energy Storage System (Battery)...142 7.3.2 System with Wind Generator and no Influence of Weather......................142 iv 7.3.3 System with Wind Generator and Energy Storage System, and Alternative Weather Conditions Normal and Stormy Weather.............................................145 CHAPTER 8: DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH..........................................................................................151 8.1 Discussions and Conclusions..............................................................................151 8.2 Recommendations for Future Work....................................................................157 REFERENCES...............................................................................................................159 APPENDICES................................................................................................................165 APPENDIX A: DEFINITIONS AND FORMULAE.....................................................166 ABOUT THE AUTHOR................................................................................................172 v LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1. Weather, Lightning and Interruption (N) Codes and their Explanations used for Combined Predictor Model...............................................................60 Table 3.2. P-values by Predictor and by MA [47]............................................................67 Table 5.1. Location and Scale Factors............................................................................101 Table 5.2. Overall Improvements in rho.........................................................................103 Table 5.3. Correlation Magnitude Characterizations......................................................103 vi