small arms survey 2015 weapons and the world CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge. It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence. www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107690677 © Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva 2015 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2015 Printed in the United Kingdom by Bell and Bain Ltd A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data ISBN 978-1-107-04198-1 Hardback ISBN 978-1-10769067-7 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. FOREWORD Today’s wildlife crime threatens the survival of endangered and vulnerable species in many African countries. Evidence documented by WildlifeDirect—a Kenyan NGO founded in 2004—shows that legal penalties designed to deter such crimes have had little impact on poachers and traffickers; worse, poor law enforcement and corruption among government officials and security forces facilitate wildlife crime and trafficking. In a chapter on the poaching of elephants and rhinos, the Small Arms Survey 2015: Weapons and the World offers valuable analysis of the relative roles of different actors, including non-state armed groups, criminal networks, and commercial poachers, in wildlife crime. The research reveals that while poachers are becoming increasingly militarized, law enforcement units have yet to adopt a systematic approach to recording and tracing firearms and ammunition found at poaching sites—steps that increase the likelihood of identifying poachers, the sources of their guns, and broader trafficking networks. These findings are especially valuable to broader efforts to tackle the illegal killing of wildlife. The volume’s chapter on armed violence around resource extraction sites is also pertinent to our work. As the Survey observes, the establishment of mining sites tends to be accompanied by the rapid urbanization of adjacent communities, growing inequalities, and shortfalls in service delivery—all of which attract a variety of armed actors and increase the pressure on natural habitats and wildlife. I commend the Small Arms Survey 2015: Weapons and the World for the many insights it offers into the relationship between firearms and wildlife crime, as well as other pertinent small arms issues. I have little doubt that this volume will be of great interest to those working to protect our natural heritage, as well as others involved in arms control and the promotion of peace and security. —Paula Kahumbu Executive Director, WildlifeDirect CONTENTS About the Small Arms Survey Notes to readers Acknowledgements Introduction Chapter 1. In the Line of Fire: Elephant and Rhino Poaching in Africa Introduction Overview of poaching in Africa Armed groups Poachers’ weapons National responses to poaching Conclusion Chapter 2. Digging for Trouble: Violence and Frontier Urbanization Introduction Urban violence on the resource extraction frontier Protection and predation Poverty and protest The bust after the boom Conclusion Chapter 3. One Meeting after Another: UN Process Update Introduction Journey of a thousand meetings: the BMS5 process Anatomy of an outcome: the BMS5 text Getting to grips with new technologies: MGE2 Conclusion Chapter 4. Trade Update: After the ‘Arab Spring’ Introduction Authorized small arms transfers Authorized small arms transfers to the Middle East and North Africa, 2001–14 Transparency on small arms transfers: regional reporting instruments Conclusion Chapter 5. Less ‘Bang’ for the Buck: Stockpile Management in South-east Europe Introduction RASR: a primer Surplus weapons and ammunition in the nine RASR countries Stockpile reduction in SEE: practical constraints A regional approach to stockpile management capacity building Conclusion Chapter 6. Expanding Arsenals: Insurgent Arms in Northern Mali Introduction The 2012 insurgency and its aftermath Security challenges: an overview Arms and ammunition in northern Mali Sources of materiel of armed groups Conclusion Chapter 7. Waning Cohesion: The Rise and Fall of the FDLR– FOCA Introduction Armed group cohesion and weapons management Profiling the FDLR–FOCA Weapons holdings and control The decline of the FDLR–FOCA Conclusion Chapter 8. Stockpiles at Sea: Floating Armouries in the Indian Ocean Introduction Addressing maritime insecurity: the PSC solution What is a floating armoury? Arms circulating in the high-risk area Safe and secure? Regulating floating armouries Conclusion Chapter 9. Unprotected: Young People in Post-conflict Burundi Introduction Burundi’s legacy of conflict and violence International interventions to mitigate violence Voices of young Burundians Protecting young people from involvement in armed violence Conclusion Index ABOUT THE SMALL ARMS SURVEY The Small Arms Survey is a global centre of excellence whose mandate is to generate impartial, evidence-based, and policy-relevant knowledge on all aspects of small arms and armed violence. It is the principal international source of expertise, information, and analysis on small arms and armed violence issues, and acts as a resource for governments, policy-makers, researchers, and other stakeholders. It is located in Geneva, Switzerland, at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. Established in 1999, the Survey is supported by the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and current or recent contributions from the Governments of Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as from the European Union. The centre is grateful for past support received from the Governments of Canada, Spain, and Sweden, as well as from foundations and many bodies within the UN system. The Survey has an international staff with expertise in security studies, political science, law, economics, development studies, sociology, and criminology, and collaborates with a network of researchers, partner institutions, non-governmental organizations, and governments in more than 50 countries. NOTES TO READERS Abbreviations: Lists of abbreviations can be found at the end of each chapter. Chapter cross-referencing: Chapter cross-references are fully capitalized in brackets throughout the book. One example appears in Chapter 7: ‘As a result, commanders who controlled areas with natural resources—especially gold and cassiterite (tin ore)—tended to become the wealthiest (VIOLENCE AND RESOURCE EXTRACTION).’ Exchange rates: All monetary values are expressed in current US dollars (USD). When other currencies are also cited, unless otherwise indicated, they are converted to USD using the 365-day average exchange rate for the period 1 September 2013 to 31 August 2014. Small Arms Survey: The plain text—Small Arms Survey—is used to indicate the organization and its activities, while the italicized version—Small Arms Survey—refers to the publication. The Survey, appearing italicized, relates generally to past and future editions. Small Arms Survey Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Maison de la Paix, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 2E 1202 Geneva Switzerland t +41 22 908 5777 f +41 22 732 2738 e [email protected] w www.smallarmssurvey.org ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This is the 15th edition of the Small Arms Survey. Like previous editions, it is a collective product of the staff of the Small Arms Survey, a centre of excellence on small arms and armed violence based at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. Numerous researchers in Geneva and around the world have contributed to this volume, and it has benefited from the input and advice of government officials, advocates, experts, and colleagues from the small arms research community and beyond. Several people who supported research for this edition of the yearbook asked to remain anonymous; we are grateful for their contributions, including some of the photographs used in this volume. The principal chapter authors were assisted by in-house and external contributors, who are acknowledged in the relevant chapters. In addition, chapter reviews were provided by: Julian Blanc, Mark Bromley, Deborah Bryceson, Ledio Cakaj, Gilles Carbonnier, Prasenjit Chaudhuri, Chris Chew, Vincent Choffat, Julie Claveau, Mohammad Hassan Faizee, Gary Fleetwood, Gillian Goh, Claudio Gramizzi, Yvan Guichaoua, Etienne Huber, N.R. Jenzen-Jones, Evert Kets, Gaspard Kisoki Sumaili, Carolin Liss, Daniel Mack, Nic Marsh, Blaž Mihelič, Laura Nicolson, David Niyonzima, Rebecca Peters, Daniël Prins, Ellen Regeling, Dilys Roe, Conor Seyle, Delaney Simon, Jonathan Somer, Jason Stearns, Rachel Stohl, Savannah de Tessières, David Towndrow, Michael Ungar, Peter Uvin, Christoph Vogel, Michael Wessells, and Adrian Wilkinson. Small Arms Survey 2015 Editors Glenn McDonald, Emile LeBrun, Anna Alvazzi del Frate, Eric G. Berman, and Keith Krause Coordinator Glenn McDonald Publication Alessandra Allen and Estelle Jobson Managers Designer Rick Jones, StudioExile