IAEA-TECDOC-347 SMALL AND MEDIUM POWER REACTORS: PROJECT INITIATION STUDY PHASE I REPORT PREPARED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY AND THE OECD NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY A TECHNICAL DOCUMENT ISSUED BY THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY, VIENNA, 1985 SMALL AND MEDIUM POWER REACTORS: PROJECT INITIATION STUDY, PHASE I IAEA, VIENNA, 1985 IAEA-TECDOC-347 Printed by the IAEA in Austria July 1985 PLEASE BE AWARE THAT ALL OF THE MISSING PAGES IN THIS DOCUMENT WERE ORIGINALLY BLANK The IAEA does not maintain stocks of reports in this series. However, microfiche copies of these reports can be obtained from INIS Clearinghouse International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramerstrasse 5 P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna, Austria Orders should be accompanied by prepayment of Austrian Schillings 80.00 in the form of a cheque or in the form of IAEA microfiche service coupons which may be ordered separately from the INIS Clearinghouse. FOREWORD In conformity with the Agency's promotional role in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, IAEA has shown, over the past 20 years, assisting Member States, particularly developing countries, in planning for the introduction of nuclear power plants in the Small and Medium range (SMPR). However these efforts did not produce any significant results in the market introduction of these reactors, due to various factors. In 1983 the Agency launched a new SMPR Project Initiation Study with the objective of surveying the available designs, examining the major factors influencing the decision-making processes in Developing Countries and thereby arriving at an estimate of the potential market. Two questionnaires were used to obtain information from possible suppliers and prospective buyers. The Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD assisted in making a study of the potential market in industrialized countries. The information gained during the study and discussed during a Technical Committee Meeting on SMPRs held in Vienna in March 1985, along with the contribution by OECD-NEA is embodied in the present report. It is hoped that this report would serve as a useful guide for future case studies which can be undertaken with the Agency's assistance by Member States with definitive plans for nuclear power programme. EDITORIAL NOTE In preparing this material for the press, staff of the International Atomic Energy Agency have mounted and paginated the original manuscripts and given some attention to presentation. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the governments of the Member States or organizations under whose auspices the manuscripts were produced. The use in this book of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authoritiesa nd institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of specific companies or of their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. CONTENTS Foreword 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................ 7 The SMPR Supply Situation ....................................... 7 The Potential Market for SMPRs................................... 8 Conclusion ........................... ............................ 13 2. BACKGROUND....................................................... 15 2.1 The SMPR Issue 2.1.1 Viability of Nuclear Power 2.1.2 Need for SMPR 2.1.3 Small vs. Large Units 2.2 Previous IAEA Activities.................................... 19 3. SMPR SUPPLY SITUATION............................................ 21 3.1 Design Summaries ............................................ 21 3.2 Design Trends............................................... 21 3.3. Process Heat and Cogeneration Plants........................ 23 3.4 Implementation Schedules.................................... 24 3.5 Supplier Readiness.......................................... 25 3.6 Provenness.................................................. 28 3.7 Cost Information .............................. ............. 30 3.8 Supply of Fuel, Spares and Services......................... 30 3.9 Performance Guarantees ...................................... 33 4. MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION MAKING........................ 35 4.1 Infrastructure 4.1.1 Introduction 4.1.2 Electric Grid Requirements 4.1.3 Organizational Requirements 4.1.4 Manpower Requirements 4.1.5 Industrial Support Requirements 4.2 Siting Considerations ....................................... 41 4.3 Economics and Financing .................................... 42 4.3.1 Planning for Nuclear Power Introduction 4.3.2 SMPR Economics 4.3.3 Nuclear Power Plants Financing 4.4 Safety Aspects.............................................. 50 4.5 Contractual Arrangements .................................... 51 4.6 Technology Transfer......................................... 52 4.7 Fuel Cycle Aspects .......................................... 53 4.8 Public Acceptance........................................... 54 4.9 Environmental Effects....................................... 54 5. ESTIMATE OF THE POTENTIAL MARKET IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ......... 55 5.1 General..................................................... 55 5.2 Buyer Questionnaire Responses............................... 56 5.3 Potential Market in Developing Countries .................... 57 6. ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL MARKET IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES......... 71 6.1 Introduction ............................. .................. 71 6.2 Nuclear Energy and Smaller Nuclear Power Reactors in OECD Countries.............................................. 71 6.3 Comparison of Smaller Nuclear Reactors for Industrialized and less Industrialized Countries ............ 74 6.4 Reasons for Considering Smaller Nuclear Reactors in OECD Countries .......................................... 77 (a) Small Grids (b) Remote/Discontinuous Areas (c) Economic Electricity Supply (d) Dedicated Applications (e) Diversification (f) Export Sales Considerations 6.5 Assessment of Potential Market for Smaller Nuclear Reactors in OECD Countries.................................. 82 (a) Concrete Indications of Interest (b) Analyses of Technical Market Potential (i) Historic Analysis of Potential Market (ii) Financing of Nuclear Power Programmes (iii) Electrical Supply Growth Evaluations (iv) Electrical Load Growth Considerations 6.6 Summary of Market Potential for SMPRs and MPRs .............. 91 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS............................................ 93 Appendix I: Safety Series - NUSS Programme........................... 95 Annex I: Information on SMPR concepts contributed by.............. 97 supplier industries A.I.1 CANDU 300 - AECL, Canada................................... 98 A.I.2 NP 300 - TECHNICATOME/FRAMATOME, France.................... 102 A.I.3 BBC/HRB - HTR, FRG......................................... 106 A.I.4 Interatom - HTR 80, FRG ................................... 114 A.I.5 KWU PHWR 300, FRG.......................................... 120 A.I.6 ANSALDO NIRA PWR 300, Italy................................ 124 A.I.7 ANSALDO NIRA CIRENE 300, Italy............................. 126 A.I.8 Hitachi BWR 500, Japan..................................... 130 A.I.9 Mitsubishi PWR 300, Japan ................................. 132 A.I.10 Toshiba BWR 500, Japan..................................... 134 A.I.11 Toshiba BWR 200/300, Japan................................. 136 A.I.12 ASEA ATOM - PIUS, Sweden.................................. 138 A.I.13 GEC Magnox, U.K............................................ 143 A.I.14 NNC Magnox 300, U.K. ..................................... 144 A.I.15 Rolls-Royce Prefabricated PWR 300, U.K..................... 148 A.I.16 B & W CNSG, U.S.A........ .................................. 152 A.I.17 B & W CNSS, U.S.A........................................ 156 A.I.18 G.E. Future Small BWR, U.S.A............................... 160 A.I.19 G.E. HTGR, U.S.A......... .................................. 164 A.I.20 G.E. MRP, U.S.A............................................ 165 A.I.21 Atomenergoexport VVER 440, USSR ............................ 166 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY To assist primarily developing Member States to introduce nuclear power earlier, the IAEA has since more than 20 years tried to promote the industrial production of nuclear power plants smaller (100 to 500 MW(e) range) than were generally available on the international market. These efforts were not successful and no SMPR was exported as a result, although 200 and 400 MW(e) nuclear power plants are being built and operated economically in India and the CMEA countries, respectively. Up to 1975 the reactor suppliers in the market economy countries had an ample stock of orders for big plants and there was little interest in new efforts to produce an SMPR design for what was perceived to be an uncertain market. It was at that time that the argument was formulated that a domestic market is required for a plant before it can become available for export. In recent years however two new factors have appeared which could alter the situation. Firstly, the suppliers, faced with diminishing and uncertain future home markets are compelled to take a new look at the potential future export markets. There also seems to be some interest, in at least some industrialized countries, for smaller, standardized nuclear power plants as an alternative to the large ones for situations involving lower load growth rates and for limiting the financial risks of individual investments. Whether these smaller plants would be in the SMPR or rather in the 600 MW(e) range still is uncertain. The use of small nuclear power units is also under review also for applications other than electricity e.g. cogeneration, district heating, process heat or desalting. These two new factors seemed to justify a new effort, and in 1983 IAEA launched a new SMPR project initiation study with the objective of surveying the available designs, examining the major factors influencing the decision-making processes in developing countries and thereby also arriving at an estimate of a potential market. The Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD offered its assistance in making a study of the potential market in industrialized countries. The SMPR Supply Situation Two questionnaires were used to obtain information from potential suppliers and buyers. Suppliers responded with an overwhelming 23 design concepts which could be offered for export but with varying levels of readiness and provenness. From potential buyers 17 responses were received, 16 of which were from the developing countries. In reviewing the suppliers' proposed design concepts, no in-depth evaluation of provenness and safety aspects could be performed, as the information provided in most cases would not permit this. The following notable design trends could, however be discerned from these proposals: - An emphasis on a shortened and tightly controlled construction schedule. This is evident in many proposals, and is the principal theme of two designs. Efforts to satisfy provenness criteria through utilization of systems, components, and concepts proven by commercial operation. This is evident in many designs including the Magnox and PWR concepts. Two designs share all key component designs with current larger reactors. 7 - A high level of prefabrication/shop fabrication. This is emphasized in several designs, and is maximized in a barge-mounted unit. - Recognition of site conditions in some developing countries. Most of the SMPR designs presented incorporate a relatively high seismic design level, and would also function satisfactorily with relatively high cooling-water temperatures. - Several of the design concepts are aimed at operation in smaller and weaker grids including features of load following and self-powered start-up. - Several of the design concepts include at-reactor storage of spent fuel for the entire foreseen lifetime of the plant (up to 40 years) or easily expandable storages, recognizing the present uncertainty in the back end of the fuel cycle. These trends are notable for the plants proposed to be offered immediately or in the near future. For the longer term, some suppliers referred to on-going development work on inherently safe smaller reactors but also stated that these could not be offered for bids until well into the next decade. Only very few of the potential suppliers gave any indications of the costs of the plants offered. They must be considered as carefully made estimates but not applicable to any specific site. It is still interesting to see that all estimates are low in comparison to costs extrapolated from equally generalized IAEA estimates for the size range above 600 MW(e). It would indeed appear that SMPR specific designs and fabrication methods would have managed to supercede the usual scaling laws. The Potential Market for SMPRs In the IAEA study a series of factors which would influence the choice between a smaller or larger nuclear power plant have been identified: FOR SMPRs AGAINST SMPRs o Lower absolute capital cost, o Larger units have lower specific with smaller financial burden capital cost per kW(e) and better economic viability o Distribution of economic risk through several smaller plants. o In many cases non-standard design, with provenness, licensing, and commercial availability questions o Better controlled construction o Break in normal technology dev- schedule due to the less on-site lopment for industrialized work and smaller size of components countries which are used to larger units o Earlier introduction of nuclear o More limited possibilities for power will give environmental domestic participation due to protection vs. fossil fired units trends for shop prefabrication but the smaller size of o Lower absolute heat rejection components vs. larger nuclear permits better adaptation to coolinjg power plants can bring an capacity and extends the number and increase in domestic location of possible sites participation 8