SICKNESS, RECOVERY AND DEATH By the same author INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE AND THE AMSTERDAM CAPITAL MARKET, 1740-1815 POPULATION THOUGHT IN THE AGE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION THE SEVEN YEARS WAR AND THE OLD REGIME IN FRANCE *THE EIGHTEENTH-CENTURY CAMPAIGN TO AVOID DISEASE *Also published by Palgrave Macmillan Sickness, Recovery and Death: A History and Forecast of Ill Health James C. Riley Professor of History Indiana University M MACMILLAN ©James C. Riley 1989 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989 978-0-333-48440-1 AU rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended), or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33- 4 Alfred Place, London WClE 7DP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1989 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Riley, James C., 1943- Sickness, recovery and death. 1. Western world. Man. Diseases, 1600-1988 I. Title 616.07'1 ISBN 978-1-349-10629-5 ISBN 978-1-349-10627-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-10627-1 For Sharyn and for Mike Aronoff, Ann Carmichael, Della Cook and Gene Weinburg Contents List of Tables viii List of Figures ix Preface xi Acknowledgments XV Introduction 1 1 The Boundary of Survival 9 2 Sickness, Aging and Death 29 3 Sickness Risk 62 4 Health and Sickness in Europe, 1600-1870 102 5 The Experience of Sickness before 1870 128 6 Sickness in the Second Half of the Nineteenth Century 159 7 Sickness and Death in the Twentieth Century 193 8 Sickness and Death in the Twenty-First Century 221 Notes 249 Select Bibliography 283 Index 289 vii List of Tables 1.1 Detail from the US life table for 1979-81 13 1.2 World population, 4.5 million years ago to 1985 17 3.1 Proportions of sick time in extreme terms 91 3.2 Duration of sickness by age 92 3.3 Sickness durations divided by outcome 93 3.4 Sick time and health time among Foresters 95 3.5 Sickness as a proportion of time at risk 97 5.1 Life expectation among males in England and Wales, 1861 and 1964 135 5.2 Aggregate sickness experience at the Plant in Printery, 1654-89 140 5.3 Health expectation in the Highland Societies, 1750--1821 151 5.4 Durations of sickness in some Scottish friendly societies, 1831-42 152 6.1 Accident claims by age 183 8.1 Aggregate sickness time, 1985 and 2085, for ages 0--64 237 8.2 Parameters for future morbidity rates 244 viii List of Figures 1.1 Survival curve of the US population, 1979-81 15 1.2 Survival curves for some paleolithic and neolithic populations 19 1.3 Survival curves for selected populations 21 1.4 Age-specific mortality risk in selected populations 23 2.1 Age-specific mortality risk and the Gompertz function 32 3.1 The risk of being sick 70 3.2 The risk of falling sick compared to the risk of being sick 74 3.3 Sickness risks at ages 9-35 77 3.4 Sickness and mortality risks by sex 83 3.5 Durations of sick time 90 4.1 Mortality crises in Geneva, 1585-1805 105 4.2 A world of ten diseases 111 4.3 Diseases and their prevalence 113 5.1 Survival curves for males living in England and Wales, 1861 and 1964 129 5.2 Sickness at the Plan tin Printery, 1654-89 139 5.3 Sickness in the Ashford Female Friendly Society, 1789-1833 143 5.4 Sickness in the Bennett Street Sunday School Sick Society, 1816---35 145 5.5 Sickness in some Scottish friendly societies, 1750--1821 148 6.1 Odd Fellows sickness rates, 1846---97 163 6.2 Demographic and economic trends, 1870--1900 169 6.3 Hearts of Oak sickness and economic trends, 1884-91 175 6.4 Life and sickness/health expectations among Foresters 178 6.5 Sickness risk according to occupational hazard 181 6.6 Sickness in the Guild of St George Friendly Society, 1873-1946 187 7.1 Death rates among US males, 1900--85 199 7.2 Violent deaths and all deaths, ages 15-24 and 25-34 207 7.3 Contrasting ways to measure sickness 213 7.4 Health trends in the US, 1958--81 217 8.1 Postponement of terminal disease and a rectangularized survival curve 226 8.2 The US survival curve 231 IX 8.3 Sickness expectations for the US, 1985 and 2085 (ages 0-64) 233 8.4 Sickness expectations for the US, 1985 and 2085 (ages 65-100) 240