Sensitivity to Change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NA TO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and Physical Sciences Kluwer Academic Publishers D Behavioural and Social Sciences Dordrecht, Boston and London E Applied Sciences F Computer and Systems Sciences Springer-Verlag G Ecological Sciences Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, London, H Cell Biology Paris and Tokyo I Global Environmental Change PARTNERSHIP SUB·SERIES 1. Disarmament Technologies Kluwer Academic Publishers 2. 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The CD-ROM can be ordered through any member of the Board of Publishers or through NATO PCO, Overijse, Belgium. Series 2: Environment - Vol. 27 Sensitivity ta Change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and Narth Sea edited by Emin Ozsoy Institute of Marine Sciences, METU, Erdemli, ioel, Turkey and Alexander Mikaelyan Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Sensitivity of North Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea to Anthropogenic and Climatic Changes Varna, Bulgaria 14-18 November 1995 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-94-010-6429-3 ISBN 978-94-011-5758-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-011-5758-2 Printed on acid-free paper AII Rights Reserved © 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1997 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photo copying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission fram the copyright owner. TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface ..................................................... ix List of Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Xl A Synopsis and Recommendations for Future Studies .................. XVll Changes of Mean Sea Level and Ice Conditions in Gdynia as Indicators of Climate Changes in the Gulf of Gdansk M. Sztobryn, M. Kalas and A Staskiewicz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1 Variability of Northwestern Black Sea Hydrography and River Discharges as Part of the Global Ocean-Atmosphere Fluctuations A. Polonsky, E. Voskresenskaya and V. Belokopytov . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 11 Recent Man-Made Changes in the Black Sea Ecosystem Yu.P. Zaitsev and B.G. Alexandrov ................................ 25 Seasonal and Long-Term Variability of the Black Sea Optical Parameters VL Vladimirov, V.I. Mankovsky, M. V. Solov'ev and A. V. Mishonov ......... 33 The Nutrient Stock of the Romanian Shelf of the Black Sea during the Last Three Decades A Cociasu, V. Diaconu, L. Popa, I. Nae, L. Dorogan and V. Malciu . . . . . . . .. 49 Distribution and Fluctuation of Dominant Zooplankton Species in the Southern Black Sea in Comparison to the North Sea and Baltic Sea U. Niermann and W. Greve .................................... " 65 Some Aspects of Phytoplankton Long-Term Alterations off Bulgarian Black Sea Shelf S. Moncheva and A Krastev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 79 Sensitivity to Anthropogenic Factors of the Plankton Fauna Adjacent to the Bulgarian Coast of the Black Sea A. Konsulov and L. Kamburska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95 Long-Term Variability of Phytoplankton Communities in Open Black Sea in Relation to Environmental Changes AS. Mikaelyan .............................................. 105 vi Mnemiopsis Leidyi Abundance in the Black Sea and its Impact on the Pelagic Community T.A. Shiganova .............................................. 117 Seasonal Variation of Surface Pigment Distribution in the Black Sea on CZCS Data N.P. Nezlin ................................................. 131 The Effect of Hydrological Conditions on the State of Herring Stocks in the Baltic Sea T. Raid .................................................... 139 Role of Fishing in the Black Sea Ecosystem A. C. Giicii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Environmental Impact on Fish Resources in the Black Sea K. Prodanov, K. Mikhailov, G. Daskalov, K. Maxim, A. Chashchin, A. Arkhipov, V. Shlyakhov and E. Ozdamar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Variations in the Vertical Structure of Water Chemistry within the Three Hydrodynamically Different Regions of the Black Sea 0. Ba~tiirk, S. Tugrul, S. Konovalov and i. Salihoglu .................... 183 Spatial Isopycnal Analysis of the Main Pycnocline Chemistry of the Black Sea: Seasonal and Interannual Variations S. Konovalov, S. Tugrul, 0. Ba~tiirk and i. Salihoglu .................... 197 Suspended Matter as an Index of Productivity in the Western Black Sea (Application for Productivity and Eutrophication Control) S. V. Vostokov ............................................... 211 Particulate Organic Matter of Black Sea Euphotic Zone: Seasonal and Long-Term Variation of Spatial Distribution and Composition z.P. Burlakova, LV. Eremeeva and S.K. Konovalov ..................... 223 Time-Series Profiles of 134CS, 137Cs and IJOSr in the Black Sea K.O. Buesseler and B.D. Livingston . ............................... 239 The Black Sea Cold Intermediate Layer L.l. Ivanov, S. Be#ktepe and E. Ozsoy .............................. 253 Physical Oceanography Variability in the Black Sea Pycnocline Ll. Ivanov, S. Be~iktepe and E. Ozsoy .............................. 265 vii The Black Sea Bottom Homogeneous Layer: A Simple Model of Formation V.N. Eremeev, L.1. Ivanov, AS. Samodurov and M. Duman . ............... 275 Physical Processes of Surface-Deep Layers Exchange in the Black Sea E. Demirov, M.A Latif and V. Diaconu ............................. 285 Convection in the Baltic Sea: A Numerical Process Study 1.0. Backhaus and H. Wehde .................................... 295 An Ice/Ocean Model for North and Baltic Sea C. Schrum . ................................................. 311 Quantification of Transports to Skagerrak: A Modeling Approach M.D. Skogen, G. Eriksr¢d and E. Svendsen ........................... 327 Eddy Dynamics Controlled by Basin Scale, Coastline and Topography N.H. Rachev and E. V. Stanev .................................... 341 Seasonal Variability of the Black Sea Climatic Circulation D.1. Trukhchev and R.A. Ibrayev .................................. 365 Cold Intermediate Water Formation in the Black Sea. Analysis on Numerical Model Simulations 1. V. Stan eva and E. V. Stanev ..................................... 375 Circulation in Semi-Enclosed Seas Induced by Buoyancy Flux through a Strait G.K. Korotaev ............................................... 395 Modelling of Strait Dynamics: The Baltic Experiments E. Sayin ................................................... 403 Heat and Salt Intrusions in the Pycnocline from Sinking Plumes. Test Case for the Entrainment in the Black Sea 1.A Simeonov, E. V. Stanev, 1.0. Backhaus, 1.H. lungclaus and V.M. Roussenov .............................................. 417 Coastal Eutrophication of the Southern Bight of the North Sea: Assessment and Modelling C. Lancelot, V. Rousseau, G. Billen and D. Van Eeckhout ................ 439 Modelling the Functioning of the North-Western Black Sea Ecosystem from 1960 to Present D. Van Eeckhout and C. Lancelot ................................. 455 viii Towards Coupling Three Dimensional Eddy Resolving General Circulation and Biochemical Models in the Black Sea T. Oguz, P. Malanotte-Rizzoli and H. Ducklow ........................ 469 Coupled Hydrodynamic Ecosystem Model of the Black Sea at Basin Scale: Model Description and First Results M. Gregoire, J.-M. Beckers, J.e.J. Nihoul and E. Stanev ................. 487 Atmospheric Transport of Desert Dust Toward European Seas: Model Parameterisation and a Simulated Case S. Dobricic ................................................. 501 Index ..................................................... 509 PREFACE Recent decades have seen a degradation of the environmental quality in semi-enclosed seas, which are particularly sensitive to population pressures due to their naturally low flushing rates related to their geometry. The North Sea, Baltic Sea and the Black Sea are amongst the most seriously threatened seas in the Euro-Asian region. Each semi-enclosed sea has a distinct pattern of circulation, transport, mixing, associated with the particular geometry, topography, boundary processes, interior stratification, atmospheric forcing, ice fonnation, straits / sill controls, and the specific inputs of freshwater, nutrients and pollutants. The workshop investigated the distinctive physical and ecological characteristics of the three seas in a comparative manner, in order to identify the types of driving forces and dynamic controls operating on productivity, nutrient cycling, physical transport and mixing mechanisms. A comparative study of these controlling mechanisms would allow us to better understand ecosystem sensitivity in these different environments. The workshop presentations highlighted the complexity of the semi-enclosed seas related to the interaction amongst the physical, chemical and biological fields, and differences in time and space scales in each of the systems. Further, a strong climate signal exists in these systems, manifest in the interannual, interdecadal and longer term variability. Part of the variability appears connected with background climatic variability. On the other hand, changes which could not be explained by climate alone are also present, and these are strongly related to human activity - the most significant of these effects is eutrophication. The end results of such changes could be traced in all levels of marine productivity and in the realization of fish catch. The systems under investigation ranged from almost totally enclosed domains to marginal seas adjoining a large ocean body, and from shallow, dissipative, and tidally dominated shelf regions to deep basins with energetic shelf regions adjoining relatively stagnant waters, and from completely anoxic to ox-ygen saturated chemical environments. Physical controls include: freshwater balances, strait exchanges, surface fluxes, effects of sea-ice, frontal dynamics and exchange, cross-shelf exchange, pycnocline mixing, shelf and boundary mixing, intrusions of waters cascading from the shelf or entering from straits, convection, upwelling and meso-scale dynamics. Chemical controls include: nutrient and pollutant input levels and temporal changes in their composition, suboxic and redox zone dynamics, and the geochemical residence time and removal rates of compounds in marine systems in general. Biological controls include: the mediation of nutrient cycling, food-web relationships, invasions by opportunistic species, as well as biological influences on optical properties. It was evident that the seasonal cycles of the above variables often modulated the interannual and long-term changes. The synopsis and recommendations in the following section were developed as a result of common discussions in two working groups organised during the Workshop. ix x All of the participants contributed to the working group discussions. We thank Ken Buesseler, Leonid Ivanov, Ulrich Niermann and Denis Van Eeckhout for leading the discussions and formulating the results. We also thank Tsonka Konsoulova, Emil Stanevand Sergey Semovski as members of the Workshop Organising Committee. We thank the NATO Science Committee for giving us the opportunity to carry out this Workshop, and to Dr. L. Veiga da Cunha, Director for the Priority Area on Environment of the Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division of NATO for his support, and to Vmit Vnluata, Director of the Institute of Marine Sciences of METU, Erdemli, Turkey, for motivating the Workshop. We also thank TDBiTA K, the Turkish Scientific and Technical Research Council, for providing travel support for some of the participants. We are grateful to the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, to Zdravko Belberov, Director of the Institute of Oceanology, Varna, to Mihail Ganchev, of the National Oceanographic Committee of Bulgaria, and to Chavdar Onnanov, Head of the Naval Department of the Bulgarian Army Defence Research Institute, for their enthusiastic support for the Workshop. Simeon Bozhanov, Environmental Adviser to the President of the Republic of Bulgaria kindly provided his support and motivated infonnal discussions during the meeting. It was very pleasing for us, the organisers, that the truly multi-disciplinary group of participants of the Workshop enjoyed the great meeting environment in Varna, at the pleasant premises of the International House of Scientists 'F. J. Curie', but also to take part in frequent scientific discussions during the meeting and in splendid times at the evening social hours. We thank Ivan Janev, the director of the IHS, for his hospitality. The success of the Workshop in large part owes to the efforts of our local hosts, Tsonka Konsoulova, Asen Konsulov and Avram Avramov, who fully employed their talents and diligently took care of fine the details of meeting organisation in all stages. Together with them, a number of other people from the Institute of Oceanology also provided valuable efforts whenever needed. EMiNOZSOY ALEXANDER MIKAEL Y AN Institute of Marine Sciences, Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Middle East Technical University, Krasikova 23, PK 28, Erdemli, i~el 33731 Turkey Moscow 117218 Russia