SCENARIO INNOVATION – EXPERIENCES FROM A EUROPEAN EXPERIMENTAL GARDEN Scenario Innovation Experiences from a European Experimental Garden M. B. A. Van Asselt, J. Rotmans & D. Rothman Maastricht University, the Netherlands Integrated Assessment Studies LONDON/LEIDEN/NEW YORK/PHILADELPHIA/SINGAPORE First published 2005 by Taylor & Francis, The Netherlands Schipholweg 107C, 2316XC Leiden, the Netherlands This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to http://www.ebookstore.tandf.co.uk/.” Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Taylor & Francis 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 © Taylor & Francis Group plc, London, UK All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now know or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN 0-203-02558-X Master e-book ISBN ISBN 90-5809-684-X (Print Edition) Contents Acknowledgements vi Preface: Visions of Europe x Carlo Trojan 1. The Experimental Garden 1 2. The Global Context 7 3. The VISIONS Approach 22 4. Regional and European Scenarios 66 5. Integrated Visions 138 6. Experiences from an Experimental Garden 161 References 174 Index 179 Acknowledgements This book, describing our experiences with a multi-scale participatory envisioning experiment, refers to the VISIONS project, which was a research project in the Fourth Framework Programme of the European Union—Environment and Climate Research Programme—Research Theme 4: Human Dimensions of Environmental Change. The financial support of the European Union is gratefully acknowledged. The VISIONS project was a collaborative project involving nine institutes from throughout Europe, i.e., International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, the Netherlands (coordinator); National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands; Research Methods Consultancy Ltd (RMC), United Kingdom; University of Manchester, Department of Planning and Landscape, United Kingdom; Manchester School of Management, UMIST, United Kingdom; Université de Versailles Saint-Quintin en Yvelines, Centre d’Economie et d’Ethique pour L’Environnement et le Developpement (C3ED), France; Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS BV), the Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems, Informatics & Safety (ISIS), Italy; and Eidgenoessische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Human Ecology Department (EAWAG), Switzerland. The financial and material support of these various institutes is also gratefully acknowledged. The VISIONS project resulted in an overall final report by the coordinator, final reports by all partner institutes and more than 20 working papers. In writing the current book, we have made extensive use of all this background material. By the end of the project, the partners decided not to produce collectively a book, and they left it to the coordinator and principal investigators to decide whether to further process the material. We finally processed the material and took time to reflect on what was produced. The current book is, therefore, our reflection of an inspiring and challenging envisioning endeavour. Nevertheless, we could never have written it without the contributions of the people, affiliated with the various partner institutes, over the course of the project. Although the list is long, we consider it necessary to mention each individually. We would like to acknowledge in this way the contributions to the VISIONS project of the following individuals: • At the International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, the Netherlands – Chris Anastasi (visiting scholar) – Jo Mellors – Caroline van Bers – Sandra Greeuw – Susan van ’t Klooster – Philip van Notten – Jasper Grosskurt – Chantal Timmermans • Nicole Rijkens-Klomp • Mita Patel • At the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands: – Guus de Hollander – Raymond de Niet – Ton de Nijs • At the Research Methods Consultancy Ltd (RMC), United Kingdom: – Jerry Ravetz • At the University of Manchester, Department of Planning and Landscape, United Kingdom: – Joe Ravetz • At the Manchester School of Management, UMIST, United Kingdom: – Simon Shackley – Clair Gough • At the Université de Versailles Saint-Quintin en Yvelines, Centre d’Économie et d’Ethique pour L’Environnement et le Developpement (C3ED), France: – Sylvie Faucheux – Martin O’Connor • At the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS BV), the Netherlands: – Guy Engelen – Inge Uljee – Alex Hagen – Bas Straatman • At the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Systems, Informatics & Safety (ISIS), Italy: – Ângela Guimarães Pereira – Silvio Funtowicz – Serafin Corral Quintana – Bruna De Marchi (ISIG, Gorizia, Italy) – Gilberto Gallopín (SEI, Stockholm, Sweden) – Bruno Maltoni (University of Trieste, Italy) • At the Eidgenoessische Anstalt für Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewässerschutz, Human Ecology Department (EAWAG), Switzerland: – Carlo Jaeger – Bernd Kasemir – Ralf Schüle We would also like to thank those colleagues who did not directly participate in the project, but who contributed to the project, for example, by (co)authoring working papers (sometimes as subcontractors): • Raffael Pulli and Rolf Iten: INFRAS, Switzerland • Michael Thompson: The Musgrave Institute, United Kingdom, and the University of Bergen, Norway • Dieter Imboden: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology • Ferenc Toth: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany • Arjan Lejour, Guido van Steen, and Paul Tang: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), the Netherlands More than a hundred regional and European policy-makers, businesspeople, representatives of NGOs or other stakeholder organisations, experts, artists, media people and citizens participated in the numerous workshops that have been organised over the course of the project. We cannot mention them all, but without their ideas, knowledge and input we could not have envisioned futures for Europe, the Northwest of the United Kingdom, the Green Heart in the Netherlands and the Venice region in Italy. We give our thanks to all. Ambassador Trojan (former Secretary-General of the European Commission) opened the VISIONS final forum (May 2001). We are very happy that he agreed that a translation of his speech could be taken up as a preface to this book. The actual writing of the book took place within the context of the ‘Methodology for Future Studies’ programme, a research project led by Marjolein van Asselt and funded by the Dutch Science Foundation (NWO). The necessary financial support and the freedom to follow one’s own path, which is associated with this particular funding scheme, are more than valued. Marjolein van Asselt, Jan Rotmans and Dale Rothman April 2004 Maastricht, the Netherlands