Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate- gic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De- fense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re- ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par- ticipation in national security policy formulation. Strategic Studies Institute Monograph RUSSIA IN THE ARCTIC Stephen J. Blank Editor July 2011 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the De- partment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publica- tions enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or mis- represent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empow- ers them to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the interest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec- tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be copy- righted. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 632 Wright Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5046. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be downloaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies last by placing an order on the SSI website. The SSI website address is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the re- search of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet- ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute. army.mil/newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-496-1 ii CONTENTS Foreword .........................................................................v Introduction ..................................................................vii 1. Russia in the Arctic: Challenges to U.S. Energy and Geopolitics in the High North ........................1 Ariel Cohen 2. The Arctic: A Clash of Interests or Clash of Ambitions ................................................................43 Alexandr’ Golts 3. Russian Military Presence in the High North: Projection of Power and Capacities of Action ..................................................................63 Marlène Laruelle 4. The Evolving Arctic Security Environment: An Assessment .......................................................91 Katarzyna Zysk About the Contributors .............................................139 iii FOREWORD This volume on the Arctic is the last volume in the set of five based on the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-U.S. State Department conference on Russia held in January 2010. The Arctic’s importance to the United States and to the international community has grown by virtue of its enormous energy holdings and the prospect of increased year-round navigation due to climate change. Given its proximity to Russia and that country’s dependence on energy for its economic growth and development, this area’s importance to Russia has grown, leading Moscow to make aggres- sive claims on behalf of its Arctic interests. Russia’s claims have triggered considerable anxi- ety among other Arctic states. These considerations oblige analysts here and abroad to take regional de- velopments in the Arctic quite seriously. Therefore, we are making these papers, which reflect Russian, American, and European analyses of the motives, ca- pabilities, and interests of Russia in the Arctic, avail- able to our readers so that they can benefit from the authors’ expert insights. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute v INTRODUCTION Due to changes in climate and technology, the Arc- tic Ocean is becoming increasingly navigable. Since potentially enormous energy holdings have been discovered there, and the Arctic constitutes Russia’s northern coast, the area’s commercial significance adds to its preexisting strategic importance for the Rus- sian Federation. During the Cold War, the High North theater held acute strategic significance as the bastion for Russia’s nuclear Northern Fleet. That significance, though diminished, still prevails. The Pacific side of the Arctic is becoming more important as China’s power grows. The mounting importance of the area as a source of energy and trade for Russia merely adds to the Chinese factor. Bearing these points in mind, beginning in 2007 the Russian government has made a noisy and demonstrative effort to assert its claims in the Arctic but has also negotiated with other Arctic stakeholders, most prominently Norway, with whom it signed a treaty in 2010. Given the growing strategic significance of the Arctic for Russia and other Arctic states like the Unit- ed States, the Strategic Studies Institute added a panel on the Arctic to its January 2010 conference, “Contem- porary issues in International Security,” held at the Finnish embassy in Washington, DC. The papers in the present volume bring together Russian, European, and American analyses of the energy and military sig- nificance of the Arctic, a significance extending to the United States and other Arctic states, as well to Rus- sia. These papers clarify the motives, stakes, and capa- bilities that Russia brings to the Arctic, thus their true importance lies in their implications for international vii security. Therefore they should help to advance our understanding of a region whose significance for the United States in terms of both energy and strategy will rise considerably in the foreseeable future. viii