Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit Hari Prasad Muruva Risk Management of Non-Renewable Energy Systems Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Series editor Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917 Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit (cid:129) Hari Prasad Muruva Risk Management of Non-Renewable Energy Systems 123 Ajit KumarVerma HariPrasad Muruva Stord/Haugesund University College Reactor SafetyDivision Haugesund BARC Norway Mumbai India Srividya Ajit Stord/Haugesund University College Haugesund Norway ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic) SpringerSeries inReliability Engineering ISBN978-3-319-16061-0 ISBN978-3-319-16062-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16062-7 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015937739 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor foranyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerlandispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia (www.springer.com) To Gurus Sri. Shirdi Sai Baba, Bhagwan Sri Sathya Sai Baba, Paramhamsa Swami Sathyananda Saraswati and Swami Gambhirananda and Mata Amrithananda To Parents Sri K.P. Verma and Smt. (Late) Sushila Verma Sri (Late) B.C.Khanapuri andSmt. Vibhavati Khanapuri Sri. M. Venkateswarlu and Smt. M. Uma Kakshayani and Smt. M. Sirisha and Ms. M. Tiana (wife and d/of Hari Prasad Muruva) Sri. Pradeep K. Verma and his family (b/of Ajit Kumar Verma) Mr. A. Rune Johansen MD, SIMSEA AS, Haugesund. Foreword I am pleased to provide the foreword for this book on Risk Management of Nonrenewable Energy Systems.This text illustrates theneedfor managingthe risk of various energy systems by presenting the basic concepts of risk and reliability and subsequent theoretical developments for modeling complex engineering pas- sive safety systems. The chapters are self-explanatory with many demonstrative examples and case studies. Designing complex engineering systems for achieving high safety levels is a challenging task in most industries. This is particularly true in the case of nuclear power plants. Risk analysis plays a major role in this context as it is essential for both plant safety and for public acceptance. In evaluating the safety of a plant it is important to consider events that are both internal and external to the plant. An important consideration in the treatment of external events is the possibility of disruption of external sources of electricity, cooling water, and other essential supplies including possible prompt operator action following an extreme external event. In such a situation, active systems will not function due to the failure of externalpower.Thereisthereforeaneedtodevelopsystemsthatcanfunctionunder this scenario. This situation can be achieved or mitigated with the help of passive systems. In recent years most advanced nuclear reactors have implemented passive sys- tems,aimedatimprovedsafetyandavailability,inordertoreducehumanerrorand active component malfunctions. Passive systems play an important role in inno- vative reactor safety systems and can result in substantial economic benefits and simplicity in operation over active systems. The need for a book that addresses these issues with sufficient rigor without compromising the underlining goal of succinct presentation and simplicity has long been felt, and this book aims to achieve this fine balance. Thebook starts with anintroductiontodifferent sourcesofenergy andexplains the need for plant risk analysis. It provides a review of basic probability and statistics essential for understanding risk and reliability concepts. Details on the different levels of risk analysis in nuclear power plants considering both internal vii viii Foreword andexternal eventsareexplained usingcase studies.Aseparate chapterisdevoted toreliabilitymodelingofpassivesystemsillustratingdifferentmodelingtechniques withtheirlimitationsandemphasizingtheneedfordevelopingnewtechniques.The book also emphasizes time-dependent reliability analysis and risk management of plants with details on the different tools available for managing risk and its role in decision making. The book is written in a style that should prove attractive to a widerangeofresearchersandpracticingengineersandbecomeavaluablereference and handbook. This book provides a readable discourse on the fundamentals of plant risk management and the practical application of these concepts. Roy Billinton Distinguished Professor Emeritus University of Saskatchewan Preface Risk,whichdealswiththeconsequencesoffailuresalongwithitslikelihood,plays an important role in sectors such as chemical and process plants, power plants, nuclearfacilities, andaerospacewhichcanimpose potential hazards.Risk analysis is essential for a plant from the safety point of view as well as from the public acceptance point ofview. Inthis book thebasic conceptsrequired for carryingout the risk analysis of plants and the methods/techniques/tools required for carrying out the same is provided with case studies. Hence, the book is organized into the following chapters. Chapter 1 introduces different sources of energy and their limitations, power plants, evolution of the nuclear industry, hazards, history of major accidents, and the need for risk analysis of plants. Chapter 2 provides a detailed review of probability and statistics essential for understanding the risk and reliability analysis concepts and methods that are dis- cussed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 3 discusses the risk analysis of nuclear power plants, risk analysis methodology, level 1, level 2, level 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), event tree analysis, fault tree methods, treatment of common cause failures, different failure probability models, and parameter estimation using Bayesian methods. Seismicprobabilisticassessmentofnuclearpowerplantsisdiscussedindetailin Chap. 4. This chapter provides various aspects of seismic PSA, probabilistic seis- mic hazard analysis, fragility analysis of structures, components and systems, accident sequence progression during seismic events, and contribution of seismic events to risk of a plant. Currently, most advanced reactors use passive systems to improve safety in the plant andtoeliminate human interactions,especiallyduringabnormalsituations in plants.ThebasicconceptsofpassivesystemsarediscussedinChap.5.Thischapter discusses the need for passive systems reliability, limitations of conventional reli- ability estimation methods, different methods that exist for reliability estimation of passive systems, and need for mechanistic modeling approach. Chapter 6 provides details of time-dependent reliability analysis, types of loading, degradation mechanisms that cause reduction of strength of material, ix x Preface techniques available for implementing time-dependent reliability, extreme value theory, stochastic fatigue loading, the concept of out-crossing approach and its limitations, principles of stress corrosion cracking, and its effect on reliability of components with time. Risk management in nuclear and thermal power plants is discussed in Chap. 7, which includes different tools available for risk management and how it helps in decision making. The basics of response surface methodology, fuzzy set theory, simulationtechniques,andstochasticprocesstheoryarediscussedintheAppendix. This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, power engineering, industrial engi- neering,reliabilityandsafetyengineering,systemsengineering,appliedprobability and statistics, operations research, and earthquake engineering. This book is also suitable for one-semester graduate courses on Risk Management of Nonrenewable Energy Systems in all conventional engineering branches like civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical and electronics, as well as computer science. It will also be a valuable reference for practicing engineers, managers, and researchers involved in reliability and safety activities of complex engineering systems. March 2015 Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit Hari Prasad Muruva