Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit Durga Rao Karanki Reliability and Safety Engineering Second Edition Springer Series in Reliability Engineering Series editor Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917 Ajit Kumar Verma Srividya Ajit (cid:129) Durga Rao Karanki Reliability and Safety Engineering Second Edition 123 Ajit KumarVerma Durga RaoKaranki ATØM PaulScherrer Institute Stord/Haugesund University College Villigen PSI Haugesund Switzerland Norway Srividya Ajit ATØM Stord/Haugesund University College Haugesund Norway ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic) SpringerSeries inReliability Engineering ISBN978-1-4471-6268-1 ISBN978-1-4471-6269-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-6269-8 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015944434 SpringerLondonHeidelbergNewYorkDordrecht ©Springer-VerlagLondon2010,2016 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. 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K. Anjali Foreword Itakeimmensepleasure inwritingtheforewordforthisverywell-writtenbookon “Reliability and Safety Engineering” that connects the bridge between the quin- tessential first principles of reliability with subsequent theoretical development of conceptual frameworks, and their relevance to practical realization of complex engineeringsystems.Interspersedwithampledemonstrativeexamplesandpractical case studies, this is a self-contained exposition, written in a commendably lucid style. Successful realization of sustainable and dependable products, systems, and services involves an extensive adoption of Reliability, Quality, Safety, and Risk-related procedures for achieving high assurance levels of performance; also pivotal are the management issues related to risk and uncertainty that govern the practical constraints encountered in their deployment. A need for a book that addresses these issues in comprehensive rigor without compromising on the underlying goal of succinct precision and simplicity has been long felt. And, I am sure this book has succeeded in achieving this fine balance. This book is aimed at giving a conceptually sound introduction to reliability engineering and its allied interdisciplinary applications, especially for students at the graduate level. Building upon the first principles, this gradually evolves into a knowledge bank that can be relied on for gaining insights into the performance analysisofcomplexsystems. With itsequallypreciseexplanationsbothinbreadth and scope, researchers and practicing engineers alike will find this a valuable authority as a ready reference and a handbook. After a detailed introduction and models of reliability, risk, and uncertainty analysis, this elaborates on the appli- cations through sufficient exposure to the varied fields of nuclear engineering, electronics engineering, mechanical engineering, software engineering, and power systems engineering. vii viii Foreword Istronglyrecommendthisbookforitselegantdiscourseonthefundamentalsof reliability and the much needed practical outlook it succeeds in constructing. Hoang Pham Distinguished Professor Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey Piscataway, New Jersey USA Preface Nothinglastsforeverandsoisthelifeofengineeringsystems.Theconsequenceof failures of engineering system ranges from minor inconvenience to significant economic loss and deaths. Designers, manufacturers, and end users strive to min- imize the occurrence and recurrence of failures. In order to minimize failures in engineeringsystems,itisessentialtounderstand‘why’and‘how’failuresoccur.It is also important to know how often such failures may occur. If failures occur, inherent safety systems/measures must ensure the consequences of failures are minimal. Reliability deals with the failure concept, whereas safety deals with the consequences of failure. Reliability and Safety Engineering explores failures and consequences of failures to improve the performance of engineering systems. It plays a vital role in sectors such as chemical and process plants, nuclear facilities, and aerospace which can impose potential hazards. The main benefit of its appli- cation is to provide insights into design, performance, and environmental impacts, including the identification of dominant risk contributors and the comparison of optionsforreducingrisk.Inaddition,itprovidesinputstodecisionsondesignand back fitting, system operation and maintenance, safety analysis and on regulatory issues. Reliability and safety are the core issues to be addressed during the design, operation,andmaintenanceofengineeringsystems.LCCandsustainabilityarekey to the understanding of risk and environmental impact of operation and mainte- nance of systems over the designed life leading to what one may call the ‘Green Reliability’. This book aims to present basic concepts and applications along with latest state of art methods in Reliability and Safety engineering. The book is organized as follows: Chapter 1 introduces reliability and safety concepts and discusses basic termi- nology, resources,past, present challenges, and future needs.Chapter 2 provides a detailed review of probability and statistics essential for understanding the reli- ability and safety analysis methods discussed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 3 discusses various system reliability modeling techniques such as ReliabilityBlockDiagram,FaultTreeAnalysis,andMarkovmodeling.Component (or basic event) reliability values are assumed to be available in analyzing system ix x Preface level reliability. Repairable systems are also addressed and several practical examples are given. In Chap. 4, methods that focus on reliability analysis of complex systems, Monte Carlo simulation, and dynamic fault tree analysis are explained. Conventional engineering fields, viz., Electronics Engineering, Software Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Structural Engineering, have their own terminology and methodologies in applying the reliability concepts. Though the basic objective is to improve the system effectiveness, approach in adopting reli- ability concepts is slightly case specific to each area. Chapters 5–8 present reli- abilityterminologyinthevariousabove-mentionedconventionalengineeringfields. The current practices, resources, and areas of research are highlighted with respect to each field. Chapter9focusesonmaintenanceoflargeengineeringsystems.Essentiallythis chapter covers two areas of maintenance, i.e., prioritizing of equipment and opti- mization in maintenance decision making. MethodologyforProbabilisticSafetyAssessment(PSA)ingeneralisaddressed in Chap. 10. Various elements of PSA including common cause failure analysis, human reliability analysis, and importance measures are presented. Chapter 11 introduces dynamic methods in safety analysis with special emphasis on dynamic eventtreeanalysis;theelementsinvolvedinthemethodandcomparisonamongits implementation are also discussed. Practical applications of PSA in operation and maintenance activities of complex systems like nuclear power plants are discussed in Chap. 12. Uncertainty ispresentinanyreliabilityand safety calculation duetolimitations in exactly assessing the parameters of the model. Creditability and practical usabilityofreliabilityandriskanalysisresultsisenhancedbyappropriatetreatment ofuncertainties. Various uncertaintypropagation and analyzingmethods including Monte Carlo simulation, Fuzzy arithmetic, Probability Bounds, and Dempster-Shafer theory are explained in Chaps. 13 and 14. This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in Nuclear Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Industrial Engineering, Reliability and Safety Engineering, Systems Engineering, Applied Probability and Statistics, and Operations Research. The book is also suitable for one semester graduate course on Reliability and Safety Engineering in all conventional engineering branches like Civil, Mechanical, Chemical, Electrical, Electronics, and Computer Science.Itwillalsobeavaluablereferenceforpracticingengineers,managers,and researchers involved in reliability and safety activities of complex engineering systems.