Regional and Multilateral Trade in Developing Countries Regional and Multilateral Trade in Developing Countries Editors Shahid Ahmed Shahid Ashraf First published 2011 in India by Routledge 912 Tolstoy House, 15–17 Tolstoy Marg, Connaught Place, New Delhi 110 001 Simultaneously published in the UK by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2011 Shahid Ahmed and Shahid Ashraf Typeset by Star Compugraphics Private Limited D–156, Second Floor Sector 7, Noida 201 301 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage and retrieval system without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record of this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-415-67786-8 Contents List of Tables ix List of Figures xiii List of Boxes xv Acknowledgementsxvii Introduction1 Part 1 : Macro and CGE Modelling of International Trad e 1. Macro Effects of Global Economic Crisis on Trade, Economic Growth and Poverty in India Κ. N. Murt1y7 2. Changing Rules of the Game of Textile Trade: Gender Implications for Pakistan from a CGE Analysis Rizwana Siddiqui44 3. Quantitative Assessment of India-ED FTA: A CGE Analysis Shahid Ahme6d8 Part 2: Regional integration in South Asi a 4. South Asian Integration: Dream or Reality Rajan Sudesh Ratna95 5. Fostering Regional Trade in South Asia: Prospects and Challenges 106 Kazi Mahmudur Rahman, Syed Saifuddin Hossain, Asif Anwar andMd. Tariqur Rahman 6. A Study of Economic Feasibility of Optimum Currency Area in South Asia 134 Mirza Alii in Baig Part 3: Trade Integration in Africa and Arab State s 7. Regional Integration and Small Resource-based Economies: An African Perspective 155 Narain Sinha, Imogen Bonolo Mogotsi and Anthony Kimotho Macharía 8. Trade Agreements and Exports: A Case of Africa-China and the European Union Trade Relations 173 Olayinka Idowu Kareem 9· The Contribution of Trade to Growth of Arab Countries 195 Hossam Younes and Abd El-Wak.il Mohammed Abo-Taleb Part 4: Sectoral Dimensions of International Trad e 10. Comparison of Trade Complementarities and Similarities between India and ASEAN Countries 215 B. P. Sarath Chandran and P. K. Sudarsan lt. AS ΕΑΝ-India Free Trade Agreements and Plantations: Beyond Casual Observations and Common sense 235 K. J. Joseph 12. RTAs: The Way Forward for India 254 Prabalatban S. Iyer 13. ASËAN-India FTA: Sensitivity Analysis of the Textiles and Clothing Sector of India 268 P. Nayak. and Shakeel Akamed 14. Impacts of Foreign Investment on Indian Auto Industry 294 Badri Narayanan G. and Pankaj Vashisht Part 5: Some Legal and Other Economic Issues of the WTO Proces s 15. Escape Clauses under WTO: Complementary or Contradictory to the Liberalisation of International Trade in Goods 327 Mohammad Albibi l6. National Treatment Violations; Lessons from Competition Law 347 Anton P. Petrov 17. Multilateralism ünder GATT-WTO Regime: A Conceptual and. Methodological Investigation 365 Naushad Ali Azad 18. India's Position in Doha Development Round of WTO: An Assessment 383 Nilanjan Banik About the Editors 395 Notes on Contributors 396 Index 399 List of Tables 11..11 IImmppaaccttss ooff 33 PPeerr CCeenntt DDeeccrreeaassee iinn WWoorrlldd RReeaall IInnccoommee iinn II9999II--II999922 dduuee ttoo GGlloobbaall EEccoonnoommiicc CCrriissiiss 2244 22..11 PPrriiccee EEffffeeccttss ((PPeerrcceennttaaggee VVaarriiaattiioonn oovveerr BBaassee YYeeaarr VVaalluueess)) 5533 22..22 TTrraaddee aanndd OOuuttppuutt EEffffeeccttss ((PPeerrcceennttaaggee VVaarriiaattiioonn oovveerr BBaassee YYeeaarr VVaalluueess)) 5555 22..33 EEffffeeccttss oonn TTiimmee AAllllooccaattiioonn ttoo MMaarrkkeett aanndd NNoonn--mmaarrkkeett SSeeccttoorrss ((PPeerrcceennttaaggee VVaarriiaattiioonn oovveerr BBaassee VVaalluuee)) 5566 22..44 SSoocciiooeeccoonnoommiicc EEffffeeccttss ((PPeerrcceennttaaggee VVaarriiaattiioonn oovveerr tthhee BBaassee YYeeaarr)) 5588 AA22..11 SSttrruuccttuurree ooff tthhee SSoocciiaall AAccccoouunnttiinngg MMaáttrriixx 6655 3Λ.11 TTrraaddee IInntteennssiittyy IInnddeexx 7711 33.-22 WWeellffaarree aanndd iittss CCoommppoonneennttss ((ÜÜSS $$ MMiilllliioonnss)) 7777 33--33 PPeerrcceennttaaggee CChhaannggee iinn OOuuttppuutt 7799 33..44 PPeerrcceennttaaggee CChhaannggee iinn EEmmppllooyymmeenntt 8811 33--55 PPeerrcceennttaaggee CChhaannggee iinn IImmppoorrttss 8822 33.-66 PPeerrcceennttaaggee CChhaannggee iinn EExxppoorrttss 8833 33--77 PPeerrcceennttaaggee CChhaannggee iinn BBiillaatteerraall EExxppoorrttss 8855 33..88 SSyysstteemmaattiicc SSeennssiittiivviittyy AAnnaallyyssiiss ((WWeellffaarree CChhaannggeess Q(UJSS $$ MMiilllliioonn)) 8866 33--99 RReevveennuuee EEffffeecctt ooff IInnddiiaa——EEDD FIΊT AΛ ((UUSS $$ MMiilllliioonn)) 8877 AΑ33··1! RReeggiioonnaall AAggggrreeggaattiioo nn 88 AA33-·22 SSeeccttoorraall AAggggrreeggaattiioonn 8899 44..11 SSeennssiittiivvee LLiissttss AAmmoonngg tthhee SSAAFFTTAA MMeemmbbeerrss 9977 55..11 SSoouutthh AAssiiaa''ss IInnttrraa aanndd EExxttrraa--rreeggiioonnaall TTrraaddee iinn 22000088 110088 55..22 SSoouutthh AAssiiaa''ss EExxppoorrtt ttoo DDiiffffeerreenntt RReeggiioonnss 110099 55--33 PPeerrcceennttaaggee SShhaarree ooff SSoouutthh AAssiiaann IInnttrraa--rreeggiioonnaall EExxppoorrtt 111100 55..44 SSoouutthh AAssiiaann CCoouunnttrriieess iinn DDiiffffeerreenntt TTrraaddee AArrrraannggeemmeennttss 111111 55..55 DDiiffffeerreennttiiaattiinngg TTaarriiffff LLiibbeerraalliissaattiioonn PPrrooggrraammmmee ((TTLLPP)) 111133 55..66 SShhaarree ooff IInnttrraa--rreeggiioonnaall TTrraaddee ffoorr tthhee ''PPrriioorriittyy GGooooddss SSeeccttoorr'' wwiitthhiinn SSAAAARRCC iinn 22000088 111155