ABSTRACT Ernest G. Marshburn. BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING DETERMINANTS OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING (Under the direction of Dr. Ronald L. Mitchelson) Institute for Coastal Science and Policy, Ph.D. Coastal Resources Management, December, 2014. Recreational boating has grown in popularity in recent decades, accompanied with increased accidents resulting in property damage and personal injury. Some 5,000 recreational boating accidents are reported annually, ranking recreational boating as a leading cause of transportation accidents, second only to automotive. Recent research suggests that recreational boating accidents stem from multiple factors. In contrast, public perception and public policy overwhelmingly attribute boating accidents to human error, e.g., operator drug or alcohol use or lack of experience. This dissertation offers a comprehensive perspective on recreational boating accidents by exploring human, technological, and environmental factors that most influence these accidents. This level of inclusiveness is absent from previous research. The conceptual model developed in this dissertation is derived from general accident theory that integrates spatial and temporal qualities of recreational boating (and boating accidents) from satellite imagery, on-the-water boater surveys, and federal boating accident data. Data were assembled for two distinctive research sites, Sandusky, OH and Tampa, FL. Analyses of these data depended, in part, upon various forms of spatial statistics, e.g., hot spot analyses. The boating accident model developed in this study uses the multivariate negative binomial model to analyze accident count data aggregated to 0.25 mi2 grid cells. The result is a synthetic model with improved parameter estimates and predictive capability compared to previous boating accident research. Key risk factors contained in the final model clearly represent human (operator experience), technological (boat speed and length), and environmental (boat density and channel character) dimensions. This research has important societal impact, i.e., to public officials faced with the allocation of limited resources. In particular, this research emphasizes the concentrated nature of boating risk in time (seasonality, day of week, time of day) and in space (shoals, channels, fixed facilities). These features should guide the timing and the placement of mobile law enforcement capacity as well as the location of operation centers near high risk boating sites. Finally, this work emphasizes the need for investigations of additional sites and the importance of including remotely sensed data to complement survey data in studies of recreational boating accidents. BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING DETERMINANTS OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Institute for Coastal Science and Policy, Coastal Resources Management East Carolina University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Ph.D. Coastal Resources Management Primary Concentration in Social Science & Coastal Policy Secondary Concentration in Coastal & Estuarine Ecology by Ernest G. Marshburn December, 2014 © Copyright 2014 Ernest G. Marshburn BEYOND HUMAN FACTORS: EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING DETERMINANTS OF RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS WITH SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING by Ernest G. Marshburn DISSERTATION DIRECTOR: (Ronald L. Mitchelson, Ph.D.) COMMITTEE MEMBER: (Yong Wang, Ph.D.) COMMITTEE MEMBER: (Thomas R. Allen, Ph.D.) COMMITTEE MEMBER: (Claudia L. Jolls, Ph.D.) COMMITTEE MEMBER: (Lynn L. Harris, Ph.D.) COMMITTEE MEMBER: (Jason S. Brinkley, Ph.D.) Director, Ph.D. COASTAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT; INSTITUTE FOR COASTAL SCIENCE AND POLICY: (Hans Vogelsong, Ph.D.) DEAN OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL: (Paul J. Gemperline, Ph.D.) vii DEDICATION Special thanks go to my family, David Marshburn (brother), Tammy Burroughs (sister), and extended family members (Slater Burroughs, Lorrie Marshburn, Margaret and Baxter Matheson, Matt Burroughs, Michelle Burroughs, Jeremy Marshburn, Eric Marshburn, and Adam Marshburn) without whose love, support, and steadfast belief; I could not have turned this dream into a reality. Most especially, my continuing gratitude and special thanks go to my wife, Dianne Marshburn. She has been patient, understanding, supportive, and most importantly encouraging during a time when my research focus took priority over family time. This critical and timely support provided the foundation required for the successful completion of an area of recreational boating research that we are both passionate about. viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My profound gratitude is expressed to the many people who have supported my scholarly and research work in pursuit of a Ph.D. in Coastal Resources Management. First, I thank my adviser, Ron Mitchelson, Ph.D., for his support, encouragement, and mentoring in connection with this invaluable and enriching educational experience. I also thank my dissertation committee, Yong Wang, Ph.D., Tom Allen, Ph.D., Claudia Jolls, Ph.D., Lynn Harris, Ph.D., and Jason Brinkley, Ph.D., who offered course of study, scholarly advice, and comforting spirits. Appreciation is also expressed to the Institute for Coastal Science and Policy faculty and staff, especially, Hans Vogelsong, Ph.D., Kay Evans, and Cindy Harper and fellow CRM student colleagues, especially Cecilia Krahforst and Mahealani Kaneshiro-Pineiro, for their continuing encouragement. I would like to express appreciation to my program collaborators including the Department of Homeland Security, United States Coast Guard (CAPT Mark Rizzo, CAPT Tom Boross, Jeff Hoedt, and Susan Tomczuk), USPS (Mary Catherine Berube, SueLee Tang), National Association of State Boating Law Administrators (John Johnson), Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (Richard Moore, Seth Wagner), the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Watercraft (Pam Dillon, Rodger Norcross, Tammy Terry), DigiGlobe (Jennifer Kennedy, Jeff Ferrara, Timothy C. Kammerer, and Diana Pavlecka), Intergraph ERDAS Imagine (Diane Geheber), and PCI Geomatics (Deborah Panagopoulos, Ross Downey) for research funding, software, and data support. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION…………………………………………………………………………… iv ACKNOWLDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………..... v LIST OF TABLES…………………………………………………………….………… x LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………..………… xi CHAPTER 1: THE RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENT PARADOX………. 1 Boating Safety………………………………………………………..………… 2 Under-Reporting………………………………………………………………... 3 Under-Reporting Problem……………………………………………………... 4 Traffic Safety and Policy……………………………………………..………... 5 Historical Perspectives……………………………………………….………... 6 Significance of the Study and Broader Impact…………………….……….. 8 Limitations and Assumptions………………………………………..……….. 9 Boating Accidents through an Economic, Political, and Social Lens…….. 9 Research Study Overview…………………………………………...……….. 10 CHAPTER 2: EXISTING RESEARCH ON RECREATIONAL BOATING ACCIDENTS………………………………………………………………….……….. 12 Research Context and Theoretical Framework…………………..……….. 13 Key Concepts………………………………………………………………….. 17 The Human Dimension……………………………………….……….. 18 The Technological Dimension……………………………….……….. 19 The Environmental Dimension……………………………………….. 20 Proposed Recreational Boating Accident Model………………….……….. 21 Review of Recreational Boating Accident Literature: Prior to 1989……… 23 x