PRUDENT DEVELOPMENT Realizing the Potential of North America’s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources National Petroleum Council • 2011 PRUDENT DEVELOPMENT Realizing the Potential of North America’s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources A report of the National Petroleum Council September 2011 Committee on Resource Development James T. Hackett, Chair NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL David J. O’Reilly, Chair Douglas L. Foshee, Vice Chair Marshall W. Nichols, Executive Director U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Steven Chu, Secretary The National Petroleum Council is a federal advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy. The sole purpose of the National Petroleum Council is to advise, inform, and make recommendations to the Secretary of Energy on any matter requested by the Secretary relating to oil and natural gas or to the oil and gas industries. All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Control Number: 2011944162 © National Petroleum Council 2011 Printed in the United States of America The text and graphics herein may be reproduced in any format or medium, provided they are reproduced accurately, not used in a misleading context, and bear acknowledgement of the National Petroleum Council’s copyright and the title of this report. Outline of Report Materials Summary Report Volume (also available Full Report Volume (printed and available online at www.npc.org) online at www.npc.org) y Report Transmittal Letter to the y Outline of Full Report (see below) Secretary of Energy Additional Study Materials (available online y Outline of Report Materials at www.npc.org) y Preface y Summary and Full Report (pdfs with hyperlinks) y Report Slide Presentations y Executive Summary y Webcasts of NPC Report Approval Meeting and y Study Request Letters Press Conference y Description of the National Petroleum Council y Study Topic and White Papers (see page vi for list) y Roster of the National Petroleum Council y Study Survey Data Aggregations Outline of Full Report Preface Executive Summary America’s Energy Future Core Strategies Support Prudent Natural Gas and Oil Resource Development and Regulation Better Reflect Environmental Impacts in Markets and Fuel/Technology Choices Enhance the Efficient Use of Energy Enhance the Regulation of Markets Support the Development of Intellectual Capital and a Skilled Workforce Conclusions outline of report materials i Chapter One: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Resources and Supply Abstract Introduction and Summary Summaries and Key Findings Summary of Scope and Objectives Summary of Methodology North American Oil and Natural Gas Resource Endowment Hydrocarbon Resource Assessment Uses and Definitions Overview of Recent and Current North American Oil and Gas Resource Assessments Key Findings and Observations Analysis of Resource and Production Outlooks and Studies Overview Crude Oil Natural Gas Prospects for North American Oil Development Overview Offshore Arctic Onshore Oil Unconventional Oil Crude Oil Pipeline Infrastructure Prospects for North American Gas Development Overview Offshore Arctic Onshore Gas Natural Gas Infrastructure North American Oil and Gas Production Prospects to 2050 Chapter Two: Operations and Environment Abstract Introduction and Summary Environmental Challenges Prudent Development Major Findings: Assuring Prudent Development Chapter Organization Resource Play Variations and Associated Environmental Challenges Overview of the Life Cycle of Natural Gas and Oil Exploration and Production Developing Onshore Conventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources ii pruDent DeVelopment: realizing the potential of north america’s abundant natural Gas and oil resources Developing Offshore Conventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources Developing Unconventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources History of Innovation in Environmental Stewardship Onshore Development of Natural Gas and Oil Offshore Development of Natural Gas and Oil Future Expectations History of Natural Gas and Oil Environmental Laws Prior to 1935 Initiation of Natural Gas and Oil Conservation U.S. Oil Production Dominance Environmental Movement Environmental Regulation Refinement Sustainable Strategies and Systems for the Continued Prudent Development of North American Natural Gas and Oil Life-Cycle Assessments and Footprint Analyses Environmental Management Systems Public-Private Partnerships Data Management Systems Offshore Safety and Environmental Management Center for Offshore Safety Outer Continental Shelf Safety Oversight Board Regulatory Framework on the Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sale Planning Process Coastal Marine Spatial Planning Consideration of Studies on the Deepwater Horizon Incident Offshore Operations and Environmental Management Findings Key Findings and Policy Recommendations Key Findings Definitions of Sustainable Development Chapter Three: Natural Gas Demand Abstract Summary Back to the Future: Two Decades of Natural Gas Studies Range of U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Demand Projections Potential U.S. and Canadian Total Natural Gas Requirements Compared to Natural Gas Supply U.S. Power Generation Natural Gas Demand Natural Gas Demand Summary Drivers of Power Generation Natural Gas Demand outline of report materials iii Power Generation Natural Gas Demand Projections Harmonization of U.S. Natural Gas and Power Markets U.S. Residential and Commercial Natural Gas, Distillate, and Electricity Demand U.S. Residential Energy U.S. Industrial Natural Gas and Electricity Demand Industrial Natural Gas Demand Industrial Electricity Demand U.S. Transmission Natural Gas Demand U.S. Transmission Natural Gas Demand Other Transmission Issues Full Fuel Cycle Analysis Canadian Natural Gas and Electricity Demand Canadian Natural Gas Demand Canadian Residential Natural Gas and Electricity Demand Canadian Commercial Natural Gas and Electricity Demand Canadian Industrial Natural Gas and Electricity Demand Canadian Power Generation Demand A View on 2050 Natural Gas Demand Potential Vehicle Natural Gas and Electricity Demand NGV Natural Gas Demand PEV Electricity Demand Total Potential Natural Gas Demand for Vehicles LNG Exports Exports to Mexico U.S. Liquids Demand Policy Recommendations Increase Energy Efficiency Promote Efficient and Reliable Energy Markets Increase Effectiveness of Energy Policies Support Carbon Capture and Sequestration Research and Development Description of Projection Cases Chapter Four: Carbon and Other Emissions in the End-Use Sectors Abstract Summary Emissions Baseline and Projections Summary of Findings Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Unconstrained Cases Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Constrained Scenarios Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury iv pruDent DeVelopment: realizing the potential of north america’s abundant natural Gas and oil resources Life-Cycle Emissions of Natural Gas and Coal in Power Generation Life-Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas and Coal in Power Generation Other LCA Studies Methane Reduction Programs and Technologies Conclusions Recommendations Natural Gas End-Use Technologies Methodology Findings Impact of Non-GHG EPA Rules on the Power Sector Retirement Decision Methodology Results Intra-Study Themes Other Considerations Limitations Policy Considerations Methodology Findings Evaluation of Policy Options and Frameworks Recommendations Chapter Five: Macroeconomics Abstract Summary Macroeconomic Impacts of the Natural Gas and Oil Industry on the Domestic Economy Related Industries Taxes and the Natural Gas and Oil Industry Federal Corporate Income Taxes Severance Taxes Royalties Other Taxes Generated Directly by the Industry Tax Deductions for the Natural Gas and Oil Industry Natural Gas and Oil Workforce Challenges Challenge #1 – Aging Natural Gas and Oil Workforce Challenge #2 – Long Decline in University-Level Population Seeking Natural Gas and Oil Careers Challenge #3 – The U.S. Need for Increased Investment in K-12 Mathematics and Science Education Responding to the Workforce Challenges outline of report materials v