RAILWAY PLANNING, MANAGEMENT, AND ENGINEERING In a rapidly changing world, with increasing competition in all sectors of transportation, railways are currently restructuring their planning, manage- ment, and technology. As commercial and pricing policies change and new methods of organization are introduced, a more entrepreneurial spirit is re- quired. At the same time, new high-speed tracks are being constructed and old tracks are being renewed, magnetic levitation trains are in operation, hyper- loop systems are being planned, high-comfort rolling stock vehicles are being introduced, logistics and combined transport are being developed. Awareness of environmental issues and the search for greater safety attribute a new role to the railways within the transportation system. Meanwhile, methods of anal- ysis have evolved significantly, principally due to computer applications, the internet revolution, satellite technologies, and artificial intelligence, all of which offer new ways of thinking about and addressing old problems. Railway Planning, Management, and Engineering aims to fulfill the need for a new scientific approach for railways. It is intended to be of use to rail- way planners, managers, economists, engineers and students in engineering, transportation, economics, and management. The book is divided into three parts, which deal successively with planning, management, track, rolling stock, safety, and the environment. V.A. Profillidis is Professor of Transportation Engineering at Democritus ThraceUniversity, Xanthi, Greece. He has actedasaconsultantonmanyrailway projects, with 30 years of research, teaching, and professional experience in Railway Planning, Management, and Engineering. He has published 10 books and over 200 papers in scientific journals and conference proceedings. He has served as advisor to the Greek Ministry of Transport, the Greek Railways, and the Greek Ministry of Public Works. He has also been a research associate in the Research Department of the International Union of Railways (UIC) and in the French Railways (SNCF). He holds a Diploma in Civil Engineering, a Diploma in Law, both from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, a D.E.A. and a Ph.D. from Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées of Paris, France. To the memory of my father Aristide RAILWAY PLANNING, MANAGEMENT, AND ENGINEERING Fifth Edition V.A. Profillidis Section of Transportation, Democritus Thrace University, Greece First published 2022 by Routledge 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2022 Vassilios Profillidis The right of Vassilios Profillidis to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copy- right, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or repro- duced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explana- tion without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record has been requested for this book ISBN: 9780367350116 (hbk) ISBN: 9781032341699 (pbk) ISBN: 9780429329302 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9780429329302 Contents Preface xxx List of Abbreviations xxxiv 1. Railways and Transport 1 1.1. Invention and evolution of railways 1 1.1.1. Historical outline 1 1.1.2. The golden age of railways and successive technical innovations 2 1.1.3. Railways and their competitors 2 1.1.4. Railways in the era of monopoly and competition 3 1.2. Characteristics of rail transport 4 1.2.1. Ability to transport high volumes 4 1.2.2. Energy consumption 5 1.2.3. Environmental performance and safety 5 1.3. Railways and the economy 6 1.3.1. Economic cycles and railways 6 1.3.2. Economic growth and railways 7 1.3.3. Part of revenue spent for transport and contribution of railways to the economy 8 1.4. Mobility, sustainability and railways 8 1.4.1. Mobility and transport evolution 8 1.4.2. Mobility and sustainability 9 1.4.3. Mobility as a service and railways 9 1.5. Railways and the private car 10 1.5.1. The explosion of private cars 10 1.5.2. The electric car 11 1.5.3. Carpooling and car sharing 11 1.5.4. Driverless (autonomous) vehicles 11 1.6. A panorama of passenger traffic of railways around the world 12 v Railway Planning, Management, and Engineering 1.6.1. Evolution of passenger traffic and of traveled distance performed by railways around the world 12 1.6.2 Passenger traffic of railways for some countries of the world and evolution over time 13 1.6.3. Comparative evolution of passenger traffic for railways and other transport modes 15 1.6.4. Share of railways in the national passenger transport market 15 1.6.5. Growth rates of passenger traffic of railways 17 1.6.6. Distances with a comparative advantage for rail passenger traffic 17 1.7. A panorama of freight traffic of railways around the world 18 1.7.1. Suitability of railways for some categories of freight 18 1.7.2. Evolution of freight traffic of railways around the world 18 1.7.3. Freight traffic of railways for some countries of the world and evolution over time 18 1.7.4. Comparative evolution of freight traffic for railways and other transport modes 19 1.7.5. Share of railways in the national freight transport market 19 1.7.6. Growth rates of freight traffic of railways 21 1.8. Railway traffic, length of lines, staff, and productivity of railways 23 1.9. Priority to passenger or freight traffic 25 1.10. Position of railways in the transport market, comparative advan- tages, and transport services with good prospects for railways 27 1.10.1. Competition in the transport market and comparative advantages of railways 27 1.10.2. Railways and high speeds 28 1.10.3. Urban rail services 28 1.10.4. Bulk loads – Rail freight corridors 29 1.10.5. Combined transport 30 1.10.6. Rail freight transport and logistics 31 1.11. Railways and air transport: competition or complementarity 32 1.11.1. Fields and conditions of competition and complementarity 32 1.11.2. Rail links with airports 34 1.11.3. Rail connections of airports with remote areas 34 1.11.4. Low-cost air transport and railways 34 1.12. The sanitary crisis of 2020 and 2021 and its effects on rail transport 35 1.13. International railway institutions 37 1.14. The rail industry worldwide 39 1.15. Railway interoperability 40 1.16. Applications of GPS in railways 41 1.17. Big data, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence and railways 43 vi Contents 2 High Speeds, Magnetic Levitation, and Hyperloop 46 2.1. The evolution of high speeds on rails 46 2.1.1. Definition of high-speed trains and evolution of speed 46 2.1.2. Panorama of high-speed lines around the world 47 2.1.3. High speeds for only passenger or mixed traffic 49 2.2. High-speed trains and their impact on the rail market 51 2.2.1. High speeds and population concentrations 51 2.2.2. Impact of high speeds on the reduction of rail travel times 51 2.2.3. High speeds and new rail traffic 53 2.3. Technical features of high-speed railway lines 56 2.3.1. Technical characteristics of high-speed lines 56 2.3.2. Track characteristics for high speeds 56 2.3.3. Rolling stock for high speeds 56 2.3.4. Power supply at high speeds 57 2.3.5. Economic data for high-speed trains 57 2.4. The Channel Tunnel and high speeds between London and Paris 58 2.4.1. Technical description 58 2.4.2. Travel times 58 2.4.3. Method of financing and forecasts of demand 59 2.4.4. Operation, safety, and maintenance 60 2.5. Tilting trains 60 2.6. Aerotrain 61 2.7. Magnetic levitation 61 2.7.1. Technical description 61 2.7.2. Comparison of magnetic levitation with conventional railways 62 2.7.3. Applications of magnetic levitation 63 2.8. Hyperloop technology and systems 64 3 Policy and Legislation 67 3.1. The competitive international environment and the evolution of the organization of railways 67 3.2. The dual nature of railways: business and technology 68 3.2.1. Weaknesses inherited to railways 68 3.2.2. Comparative advantages of railways 69 3.2.3. Strategy and restructuring measures 69 3.2.4. Railways and transport requirements 71 3.3. Globalization and liberalization of the rail market 71 3.4. Separation of infrastructure from operation and the new challenges for railways 73 3.4.1. Separation as an incentive for competition 73 vii Railway Planning, Management, and Engineering 3.4.2. Competition and new challenges for railways 74 3.4.3. Various forms of separation 75 3.5. A definition of railway infrastructure 76 3.6. European Union rail legislation 77 3.7. Some representative models of separation of infrastructure from operation in European railways 80 3.7.1. The Integrated model 80 3.7.2. The Semi-integrated model with apparent organic separation 81 3.7.3. The Holding model 82 3.7.4. The Separated model 83 3.7.5. The Separated model along with further separation in infrastructure 83 3.7.6. The Separated model along with privatization 84 3.7.7. Assessment of the various models 85 3.7.8. Assessment of the impact of railway reforms 87 3.8. Rail legislation in the USA and Canada 89 3.9. Rail legislation in Japan 90 3.10. Rail legislation in China and India 92 3.11. Rail legislation in Russia 92 3.12. Rail legislation in Australia and New Zealand 93 3.13. International rail law – The COTIF convention 94 4 Forecast of Rail Demand 96 4.1. Purposes, needs, and methods for the forecast of rail demand 96 4.2. Driving forces and parameters affecting the various categories of rail demand 98 4.2.1. Driving forces affecting rail demand 98 4.2.2. Effects on rail demand of the principal parameters of rail transport 99 4.2.2.1. Passenger rail demand 99 4.2.2.2. Freight rail demand 99 4.3. Qualitative methods 100 4.3.1. Market surveys 100 4.3.2. Scenario writing method 105 4.3.3. Executive judgment method 105 4.3.4. Delphi method 105 4.4. Method of trend projection of statistical data 106 4.4.1. Theoretical background and conditions of applicability 106 4.4.2. Example of a projection of statistical data 108 4.5. Time-series models – Box-Jenkins method 110 4.6. Econometric models 110 viii Contents 4.6.1. Definition, domains of application, and successive steps for the construction of an econometric model 110 4.6.2. Statistical tests for the validity of an econometric model 111 4.6.3. Examples of some econometric models for the forecast of rail demand 113 4.6.4. Exogenous and endogenous variables in rail econometric models 114 4.7. A statistical method of forecast for highly diverging data 115 4.8. Gravity models 116 4.9. Fuzzy models 117 4.9.1. Fuzzy numbers and fuzzy logic 117 4.9.2. Fuzzy regression analysis 118 4.9.3. Example of a fuzzy model 119 4.10. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models 120 4.10.1. Artificial neural networks and biological neurons 120 4.10.2. Artificial neurons and how they operate 121 4.10.3. Input, output, and hidden layers of ANN 122 4.10.4. A variety of ANN models 122 4.10.5. Suitability and areas of applications of ANN 123 4.10.6. Example of application of ANN for the analysis and forecast of rail demand 124 4.11. Evaluation of the forecasting ability of a model for the forecast of rail demand 125 4.12. A comparative analysis of performances of each method and selection of the appropriate one 127 5 Costs and Pricing 129 5.1. Definition of railway costs 129 5.1.1. Construction, maintenance, and operation costs 129 5.1.2. Fixed and variable costs 129 5.1.3. Marginal cost 130 5.1.4. External costs and marginal social cost 131 5.1.5. Generalized cost – Monetary value of time 131 5.2. Construction costs of a new railway line 133 5.2.1. Factors affecting construction costs of railways 133 5.2.2. Construction costs for new high-speed lines 133 5.2.3. Allocation of construction costs to the various rail components 135 5.2.4. Construction costs of civil engineering works 136 5.2.5. Construction costs of track superstructure 137 5.2.6. Construction costs of electric traction 137 5.2.7. Construction costs of signaling 137 ix