of Quantities Fissile Materials in U-S -and Soviet ~uclearW eapons Arsenals * Frank von Hippel David H. ~lbri~ht+ Barbara G. Levi PU/CEES Report No. 168 July 1986 * Also Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton . University + Also Federation of American Scientists, 307 Massachusetts Ave. N.E., Washington, DC 20002. Center for Energy and Environmental Studies The Engineering Quadrangle Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 TABLE OF CONTENTS a I. INTRODUCTION 11. US STOCKPILE OF WEAPON-GRADE URANIUM 111. US STOCKPILE OF WEAPON-GRADE PLUTONIUM a IV. DISPOSITION OF THE US GOVERNMENT'S STOCKPILE OF NATURAL URANIUM V. SOVIET STOCKPILE OF PLUTONIUM I. INTRODUCTION -TAB-LE OF CONTENTS History of the Proposal to Cut Off the Production of Fissile Material for Nuclear Weapons a The Verifiability of a Fissile Cutoff The Importance of Knowing the Amounts of Fissile Materials Already in the Nuclear Arsenals 2 REFERENCES Table 1-1. The Amounts of Fissile Material in the US Weapons Stockpile and An Upper-Bound Estimate of the Amount of Separated Plutonium in the USSR I. INTRODUCTION for History of the Proposal to Cut Off the Production -of Fissile Material Nuclear Weapons Although the original nuclear weapons control proposals such as the - 1946 Baruch Plan focused on the control of nuclear weapons materials, recent arms control negotiations have focused principally on the control of long-range nuclear weapons delivery systems. This has been in part due to the shift in the focus of the nuclear arms race from the quantitative to the qualitative. In part also it resulted from the Soviet Union's reluctance to allow intrusive verification arrangements. It is relatively easy with "national technical means," such as cameras mounted on satellites, to locate, identify and count large exposed objects such as intercontinental bombers, submarines under construction and missile silos. Recently, however, there has been renewed interest in the direct control of nuclear warheads. In part, this has been due to the demonstrated widespread public support for the idea of a "freeze on all further testing, production and deployment of nuclear weapons and of missiles and new a 1r-5 r aft designed primarily to deliver nuclear weapons [emphasis added]." In part also, it has been due to a trend toward smaller, mobile, and more ambiguous (multiple-purpose) long-range missiles. Such developments, if they are not quickly blocked by new arms control initiatives, will tend to put into doubt the verification capabilities of national technical systems. -The Verifiability of a Fissile Cutoff For all these and other reasons, we have been investigating the verifiability of a possible agreement between the superpowers to cut off the prod Yc-5 ion of plutonium and highly-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. All nuclear weapons contain at least a few kilograms of such chain-reacting "fissile~.material.A cutoff in the production of such materials for weapons would therefore limit the number of nuclear warheads which could be produced. Perhaps more importantly, it would lay a basis for verifiable reductions in the superpower fissile material stockpiles. The US repeatedly proposed a fissile cutoff to the Soviet4Union as a separate arms control agreement during the period 1956-1969. The Soviet - -. . Union rejected the idea apparently in large part because-the US stockpile was-much larger at the time. More recently, however, in 1982, Soviet Foreign Minister, Andrei Gromyko, announced that the Soviet Union now believed that the "cessation of production of fissionable materials for manufacturing of nuclear weapons" could be usefully made one of the - "initial stages" of a "nuclear disarmament program." Introduction, 23 July 1986, Page 1 -The Importance of Knowing & Amounts Fissile Materials in the Nuclear Arsenals The verifiability of a fissile cutoff agreement would depend on the size of the violation that would have to be detectable. One obvious way to judge the significance of an hypothetical clandestine program for the production of fissile materials would be to compare the amounts of material -- -- being produced over a given period say ten years with the amounts already in the superpower weapons stockpiles. This has led us to attempt . to estimate these stockpiles sizes from publicly available information. We present our analysis and conclusions in this report. Enough public information about the US nuclear weapons material production complex is available to allow reasonably accurate estimates of the the amounts of fissile materials in the US weapons stockpile. Similar estimat s to ours have been made independently by Cochran, Arkin and .- 7 Hoenig Insufficient public information is available to make as good estimates for the Soviet Union. We show below, however, that it is possible on the basis of public information to make a rough upper-bound estimate of the amount of plutonium in the Soviet stockpile. We have been . - unable to make a similar-of estimate the amount of highly-enriched uranium * in the Soviet nuclear weapons arsenal. Our estimates for the US stockpiles of weapons fissile materials and for the Soviet plutonium stockpile are summarized in Table 1-1. Introduction, 23 July 1986, Page 2 SECTION I. REFERENCES on 1-1. US Department of State, Documents Disarmament, 1945-1959,p . 7. See also, First Report of the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission to the Security Council, December 31, 1946, ibid, p. 50. 1-2. Randall Forsberg, "Call to Halt the Arms Race," American Friends Service Committee, Clergy and Laity Concerned, Fellowship of Reconciliation, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies. . Available from Nuclear Weapons Freeze Campaign, National Clearing House, St. Louis (1980). 1-3. Frank von Hippel, David H. Albright and Barbara G. Levi, "Stopping the Production of Fissile Material for Nuclear Weapons," Scientific American, September 1985, pp. 40-47. n 1-4. US State Department [starting in 1961 taken over by the US Arms on Control and Disarmament Agency], Documents Disarmament: 1945-1959, m, pp. 593-595, 953-967; pp. 222-223; 1961, 469; 1962, pp. 146-147, 285-286, 567; 1963, p. 333; 1964, p. 4, 35-36, 162, 165-166, 335-338, 399-403; 1965, p. 117; 1966, p. 7, 222-226, 538-546, 554-560; 1967, pp. 452-454; 1969, pp. 109-110; 158-161. m, ibid, 1961, pp. 432-433; pp. 423-446; 1964, 339-340; 1965, p. 191; p. 604; M , p p. 171-172. "Statement by Andrei A. Gromyko, Member of the Politbureau of the Central Committee of the CPSU, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, at Plenary Meeting of the Second Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly Devoted to Disarmament, June 15, 1982," (unofficial translation distributed June 15, 1982 by the Soviet mission to the UN). 1-7. Cochran, Thomas B., Arkin, William M. and Hoenig, Milton M., Nuclear r> Weapons Databook, Volume 11: The Production Complex (Cambridge, Mass: Ballinger, to be published). Â Introduction, 23 July 1986, Page 3 Table 1-1: Amounts Fissile Material in the US Weapons Stockpile -and- An of the of Upper-Bound Amount Separated Plutonium -in -the- US SR Stockpile Amount (tonnes) US Weapon-Grade Uranium US Weapon-Grade Plutonium Soviet Plutonium Introduction, 23 July 1986, Page 4