“Unique among textbooks, Dunn puts problematization and problem structuring center stage as the major driver in each field of the policy-analytic domain. As usual, Dunn skillfully blends (social) scien- tific insight, epistemological sophistication, methodological finesse and practical savvy.” Robert Hoppe, University of Twente, The Netherlands “This new edition continues the tradition of excellence established by previous editions and updates the text, references and examples to ensure its continuing relevance to the contemporary world of policy analysis in governments, the NGO and private sectors. ” Michael Howlett, Simon-Fraser University, Canada “William Dunn effectively illustrates methodology and methods of policy analysis with real-world case materials and examples at the local, national and international levels. It remains the best guide for both undergraduate and graduate courses out there.” Keun Namkoong, Former President of Seoul Tech and of Korean Association for Public Administration, South Korea “Very impressive book and will continue to use this as a must read book for my students aspiring to become respectable policy analysts.” Sofian Effendi, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia Public Policy Analysis Public Policy Analysis, the most widely cited book on the subject, provides students with a comprehensive methodology of policy analysis. It starts from the premise that policy analysis is an applied social science discipline designed for solving practical problems facing public and nonprofit organizations. This thor- oughly revised sixth edition contains a number of important updates:  Each chapter includes an all-new “big ideas” case study in policy analysis to stimulate student interest in timely and important problems.  The dedicated chapter on evidence-based policy and the role of field experiments has been thoroughly rewritten and expanded.  New sections on important developments in the field have been added, including using scientific evidence in public policymaking, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and “big data.”  Data sets to apply analytical techniques are included online as IBM SPSS 23.0 files and are convertible to Excel, Stata, and R statistical software programs to suit a variety of course needs and teaching styles.  All-new PowerPoint slides are included to make instructor preparation easier than ever before. Designed to prepare students from a variety of academic backgrounds to conduct policy analysis on their own, without requiring a background in microeconomics, Public Policy Analysis, Sixth Edition helps students develop the practical skills needed to communicate findings through memos, position papers, and other forms of structured analytical writing. The text engages students by challenging them to criti- cally analyze the arguments of policy practitioners as well as political scientists, economists, and political philosophers. William N. Dunn is Professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the Univer- sity of Pittsburgh, USA. Public Policy Analysis An Integrated Approach Sixth Edition DUNN WILLIAM N. Sixth edition published 2018 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 and by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2018 Taylor & Francis The right of William N. Dunn to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. First edition published by Pearson Education, Inc. 1994 Fifth edition published by Routledge 2016 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Dunn, William N., author. Title: Public policy analysis : an integrated approach / by William N. Dunn. Description: Sixth Edition. | New York : Routledge, 2017. | Revised edition of the author's Public policy analysis, c2012. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017008665 | ISBN 9781138743830 (hardback : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781138743847 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781315181226 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Policy sciences. | Political planning—Evaluation. Classification: LCC H61 .D882 2017 | DDC 320.6—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017008665 ISBN: 978-1-138-74383-0 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-138-74384-7 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-18122-6 (ebk) Typeset in Minion Pro, Bell Gothic by Apex CoVantage, LLC Visit the eResources: www.routledge.com/9781138743847 In memory of Donald T. Campbell BRIEF CONTENTS PART I Methodology of Policy Analysis 1 CHAPTER 1 The Process of Policy Analysis 2 CHAPTER 2 Policy Analysis in the Policymaking Process 30 PART II Methods of Policy Analysis 67 CHAPTER 3 Structuring Policy Problems 68 CHAPTER 4 Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes 118 CHAPTER 5 Prescribing Preferred Policies 189 CHAPTER 6 Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes 250 CHAPTER 7 Evaluating Policy Performance 320 PART III Methods of Policy Communication 347 CHAPTER 8 Developing Policy Arguments 348 CHAPTER 9 Communicating Policy Analysis 391 APPENDIX 1 Policy Issue Papers 433 APPENDIX 2 Executive Summaries 440 APPENDIX 3 Policy Memoranda 444 APPENDIX 4 Planning Oral Briefings 450 ix