November 16, 2015 Profile of IRGC Fighters Killed in Syria during the Past Month (Updated to November 16, 2015) Dr. Raz Zimmt1 The Syrian-Iranian operations room set up in Aleppo before the Syrian army attack, waged with the support of Iranian fighters. The poster in the upper left hand corner shows Khamenei, Khomeini and an unidentified third person. The Persian text at the right reports on the operation room's activities (Fars News, October 22, 2015). Overview 1. Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Qods Force of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), under the command of Qasem Soleimani, has led the effort to keep Damascus and strategic Syrian strongholds in the north from falling into the hands of the rebels, and to prevent the collapse of the Syrian regime. The Iranians have supported the Syrians with arms and guidance, and have sent Iranian advisors and fighters to Syria for close cooperation with the Syrian army and security forces. Iranians have also employed Shi'ite proxies in the fighting in Syria (including Hezbollah and foreign Shi'ite fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan). 1 This study was written in coordination with the research staff of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. 202-15 2 2. Iran's involvement in Syria, like its involvement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, had, until recently, involved a few hundred Iranian advisors and several thousand Shi'ite fighters directed by the Qods Force. The IRGC's presence was limited and its function was mainly advisory. The Iranians did not employ organic military units against the rebels and usually did not involve themselves directly in the fighting (although on occasion IRGC operatives found themselves in the crossfire between the Syrian regime forces and the rebels, which led to their deaths). 3. The military successes of ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other rebel organizations in northwest Syria raised doubts among the Iranians as to Assad's ability to survive over time as president of Syria. That led Iran to significantly increase its support for the Syrian regime, whose control was waning in regions vital to Syrian interests ("Little Syria"). Thus in the middle of September 2015 Iran increased the number of its forces in Syria, apparently dispatching between 1,500 and 2,000 fighters, some of them taking an active part in the fighting. The reinforcements, composed of IRGC and Shi'ite foreign fighters from Afghanistan and Iraq, were sent to support the Syrian army in its attack in northern Syria at the beginning of October 2015. 4. The Syrian army attack, with the combined aid of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters and Russian aerial support, began on October 7, 2015. A joint Syrian-Iranian operations room was set up in the Aleppo region to coordinate and command the attack forces. Fighting was waged in the areas of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo to relieve the strategic pressure exerted by Al-Nusra Front and its allies on the Syrian regime's vital strongholds in Latakia and along the coast. Apparently, at first the Syrian army had local successes, but at the end of October the attack petered out and the rebel organizations, including Al-Nusra Front and ISIS, gained the initiative. Battles are currently being fought in the rural areas south of Aleppo, north of Hama and around Idlib, and so far they have not been won. 5. The fierce battles in northern and western Syria caused the Iranian forces heavy losses: since the beginning of the ground offensive in the north at least 53 Iranian IRGC fighters have been killed in Syria (as of November 15, 2015).2 That is a sharp increase in the number of Iranian dead relative to the period before the beginning of the ground offensive. The large number of Iranians killed in a short 2 The IRGC calls the Iranians killed "martyrs [who died] defending the sacred sites" (shohada-ye modafe-e haram), after the mosque in the southern suburb of Damascus, where, according to the tradition, Zaynab, the daughter of the Imam Ali and the granddaughter of Muhammad, is buried. The name was chosen deliberately because defending a "sacred site" provides religious legitimacy for Iran's involvement in Syria. Hezbollah uses a similar religious justification for its military involvement in Syria. 202-15 3 time, and the strikingly large number of officers (including high-ranking officers), would seem to indicate that IRGC fighters are on the front line of the current ground offensive. Qasem Soleimani, Qods Force commander, at the grave of an IRGC fighter killed in Syria (Afsaran.ir, April 14, 2015). 6. An analysis of the profiles of the Iranians killed indicates that the overwhelming majority belonged to the IRGC's regular fighting units. That means that most of Iran's military involvement in Syria is based on those units, at the expense of the Qods Force. While the Qods Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, personally leads the attack in northwest Syria and coordinates with the Syrian army, the IRGC and Hezbollah, the main thrust is carried out by fighters in the regular IRGC units (infantry, armored corps and special forces). The relatively large size of those units (compared with the Qods Force, which is relatively limited in size) makes it possible for them to send many more fighters to the battle zones and to provide a response for the constraints on Iran in Syria. 7. The profiles of the Iranians killed also indicate the preponderance of fighters in special units among the forces sent to Syria. They include the Saberin brigade, the Ansar al-Mahdi security unit, the 33rd Airborne Brigade and the 154th Battalion. That would seem to indicate an Iranian effort to send trained fighters with special skills to carry out special missions, possibly including gathering intelligence. The Shi'ite foreign fighters, especially those from Afghanistan in the Fatemiyoun Brigade, continue to fight on the front lines of the ground offensive and to bear the brunt of the fighting. However, their numbers among those killed since the beginning of the Syrian 202-15 4 army attacks have been relatively low because of the sharp rise in the number of IRGC fighters killed. 8. The heavy losses incurred by Iran in Syria have required the Iranian leadership to provide justification for Iran's military involvement in Syria and explanations for the high number of Iranians killed. To that end the regime instituted a media campaign to enlist public opinion to support Iranian involvement in Syria and obviate any possible criticism. The campaign includes stressing Shi'ite religious symbolism and praising sacrifice for the sake of defending the sites in Syria sacred to Shi'a, especially the shrine of Set Zaynab (the prophet Muhammad's granddaughter), south of Damascus (a promotional tactic also used by Hezbollah). The Iranian leadership also employs the arguments of Iran's fundamental commitment to continue its support for the Assad regime and its benefits for Iranian national interests. 9. Public reactions in Iran to reports of the increasing number of Iranians killed in Syria have been mixed. While Iranian users in news websites and social media have expressed sorrow for the death of their fellow citizens, they are beginning to wonder about the large number of deaths and have started asking if a campaign costing so many lives is worthwhile. Although public criticism of the fighting in Syria is limited so far, it can be assumed that as the number of Iranians killed rises, and as Iranian military involvement in Syria becomes deeper, public criticism and protest against continuing involvement will increase. 10. A key question is whether the heavy Iranian losses will lead to internal disagreement within the Iranian leadership regarding the advisability of Iran's strategy in Syria. So far, there have been no significant indications of such disagreements. However, remarks recently made by Mohammad-Ali Jafari, commander of the IRGC, might hint at the first cracks in the leadership's position on the political future of Bashar Assad in an eventual political arrangement in Syria. Jafari, speaking to a group of students, said that some of Iran's officials did not understand why Iran had to show such sensitivity to President Assad, who enjoys great support and on whom the "resistance" in Syria depends. He did not mention the names of those officials but their names and positions might be exposed if Iran sinks deeper into the Syrian mire and internal criticism in Iran grows. 202-15 5 11. This study is composed of the following sections: 1) Section 1: Iranian involvement in Syria and recent changes 2) Section 2: Profile of Iranians killed in Syria 3) Section 3: The influence of Iran's heavy losses on its strategy in Syria 4) Section 4: Iranian public reactions to the heavy losses in Syria 5) Section 5: Iranian regime explanations and media propaganda regarding the heavy losses in Syria 6) Appendix: Names of Iranians killed since the beginning of the Syrian army's ground offensive (as of November 16, 2015). 202-15 6 Section 1: Iranian Involvement in Syria and Recent Changes Iranian involvement in Syria prior to October 2015 1. The Syrian civil war that broke out in 2011 presented Iran with a significant challenge: the fall of the Bashar Assad's regime was liable to remove a strategic ally from the "resistance camp" and weaken Iran's regional status. It was also liable to weaken Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran's most important and effective proxy, through the loss of its logistic base in Syria, vital for Iran's liaison with the organization and a conduit for the transfer of support. 2. Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the IRGC's Qods Force, commanded by Qasem Soleimani, has led the Iranian effort to keep Damascus and the strategic strongholds in northern Syria from falling into the hands of the rebels and to prevent the collapse of the Syrian regime. Iran has sent Syria weapons, guidance and advisors to work closely with the Syrian army and security forces, and to direct the fighting proxies (Hezbollah operatives and Shi'ite foreign fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan). Beginning in 2012, the IRGC enlisted several thousand Shi'ite volunteers from among the Afghan refugees living in Iran to fight in Syria. They fought in the Fatemiyoun Brigade and received a monthly salary and other benefits. 3. In recent years senior IRGC officials related to the military support Iran gave the Syrian regime: Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani, senior Iranian military advisor in Syria killed on October 8, 2015 near Aleppo, said in May 2014 that Iran had established "a second Hezbollah" in Syria and that "cultural centers" of the Basij (a semi-military organization of volunteers operating in Iran) were operating in 14 Syrian governorates. At a conference held in the city of Hamedan, he said that Iran shared with Syria the knowledge it had gained in the Iran-Iraq War. He added that a number of groups supporting the Syrian regime had been established in Iran to make the Syrian regime and people aware of the Iranian people's support for them (Fars News and Tasnim News, May 4, 2014). 4. On October 26, 2015, Hossein Salami, deputy IRGC commander, answered an Iranian TV interviewer's questions about Iran's military support for the Assad regime. He said that in addition to Iran's political support for the Syrian regime, it provided the Syrian army with strategic, operational and tactical support. It shared its combat experience with the Syrian army, helped reconstruct it, provided guidance for its 202-15 7 commanders and had established a popular militia that operated the way the Basij force operated in Iran. Iranian support for the Syrian regime, he said, direct and indirect via Hezbollah, with the recent addition of Russian aerial support, have enabled the Syrian regime to survive so far. 5. In the meantime, Iran has used local terrorist networks (Hezbollah, local Druze networks and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives) to construct a terrorist infrastructure in the Golan Heights to threaten Israel, exploiting the vacuum created by the lack of Syrian governance. However, Iran's strategic preference is clearly to support the Syrian army ground offensive in northern Syria, with the objective of preserving the survival of the Syrian regime, not handling and directing the activities of terrorist networks in the Golan Heights against Israel (which can easily change, depending on developments in the Syria). Recent changes in Iranian involvement in Syria 6. Until recently, Iran's involvement in Syria, like its involvement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, was limited to Iranian advisors and Shi'ite proxies, while Iran itself did not operate fighting units. The IRGC presence in Syria was limited, and generally speaking not involved in the fighting (although IRGC personnel were sometimes caught in the crossfire and killed). As a result, until recently Iranian losses were relatively few and did not draw much attention or criticism in Iran or comment abroad. 7. At the beginning of June 2015 the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese website Al- Hadath reported that Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani had visited the front to see the fighting first-hand and to formulate a strategy for halting the radical Sunni organizations. According to the report, he headed a delegation of high-ranking Iranian and Hezbollah military advisors to Idlib in the al-Ghab plain in northern Syria. There they examined the Syrian army's deployment and ways to halt the advance of Al-Nusra Front and its allies towards Latakia from Idlib. It was also reported that during the visit he appointed a high-ranking IRGC officer (apparently Hossein Hamedani) to head a group of military advisors in Syria and to represent him in conducting military affairs in Syria, in collaboration with Hezbollah and the Syrian army. 8. The mounting military successes of ISIS, Al-Nusra Front and other rebel organizations, some of them supported by the United States, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have raised doubts among the Iranians concerning the Syrian regime's ability to survive. The successes of the rebels, especially in northwestern Syria, the 202-15 8 result of the ongoing depletion of the Assad regime's resources, forced Iran to increase its support of the regime, whose control was dwindling to vital areas in Syria ("Little Syria"). It is possible that Russian military involvement in the fighting influenced Iran's decision. In any event, Iran significantly increased its forces in Syria and the IRGC became directly involved in the fierce battles against the rebels in the northwest. 9. Iran sent about 1,500-2,000 reinforcements to Syria in the middle of September 2015.3 They consisted of IRGC fighters and Shi'ite foreign fighters from Afghanistan and Iraq, and their mission was to support the Syrian army in a ground offensive in northwestern Syria begun on October 7, 2015. The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that on October 11, 2015, Qasem Soleimani had arrived in northwestern Syria and commanded the Syrian army offensive with IRGC support (Al-Akhbar, October 13, 2015). Qasem Soleimani briefs fighters, apparently in the region of Latakia (Facebook, October 13, 2015). 10. On October 7, 2015, the Syrian army began a ground offensive that included the regions of Hama, Idlib and Aleppo. One objective was most likely to relieve the strategic pressure exerted on the area by Al-Nusra Front and its allies (include the Al-Fatah Army) on the Syrian regime's vital strongholds in Latakia and along the coast. Another was to establish Syrian regime control in the cities of Homs, Hama and Aleppo. One goal was to retake the area around Idlib, which had fallen to the rebels, and to widen Syrian regime control from Aleppo to Syria's border 3 According to an AP report (October 14, 2015), Iran sent 1,500 fighters to Syria. According to Reuters (October 27, 2015), 2,000 fighters were sent. The Iranian media, relating to reports in the Western media, noted 2,000 fighters. The Israeli media (for example, Ma'ariv, October 14, 2015) cited 3,000 fighters. 202-15 9 with Turkey. However, apparently Al-Raqqah, ISIS's "capital", and the regions under ISIS control east of the Euphrates and the Syrian desert, are not currently targets for a Syrian army ground offensive. The rural areas south of Aleppo, north of Hama and around Idlib are still the sites of fierce fighting with no victory in sight for either side. Qasem Soleimani in the town of Al-Hader, south of Aleppo, where the Syrian army is fighting the rebels (Twitter, November 13, 2015) A picture from the joint Syrian-Iranian operations room from where the attack in southern Aleppo is directed (Iranian TV broadcast, October 23, 2015). 11. Iranian officials have denied or downplayed an essential change in Iran's involvement in Syria. They confirmed that Iran had increased its forces in Syria, but claimed they were "military advisors," and denied that Iranian forces were directly involved in the ground fighting. For example: 202-15 10 1) Hossein Amir Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab-African affairs, claimed "Iran has no soldiers fighting in Syria, only military advisors in a Muslim country in accordance with the request of the Syrian government. They are there to support the Syrian army in its fight against terrorism" (Fars News, November 3, 2015). 2) Ahmad Vahidi, former Iranian minister of defense and current head of Iran's center for strategic defense studies, speaking at the Azad Islamic University in Hamedan, also claimed that Iran was not directly involved in the fighting, but had only provided advisors (Fars News, October 29, 2015). 3) Ali Asghar Gorjizadeh, commander of the IRGC's Ansar al-Mahdi security unit, told a newspaper that the IRGC provided the Syrian regime exclusively with "advisory services." He added, however, that if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered it, thousands of Iranian soldiers would be sent to fight in Syria (Yjc.ir, October 30, 2015). 4) Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, when asked about the rise in the number of Iranians killed in Syria, answered that there were "less than fifty." He claimed that in view of the increasing severity of the clashes, it was only natural that the number of Iranian advisors in Syria would rise (Al-Ayyam, November 4, 2015).4 Asked if Iran would send ground forces to Syria, he answered that Syria had no lack of manpower and could defend itself, which was why Iran had not sent and would not send ground forces to Syria (ISNA, November 11, 2015). 12. The relatively large number of Iranians killed in the short period of time since the ground offensive began, and the large number of officers among them, clearly indicate that they are not there only in the capacity of "military advisors." It is now clear that the IRGC and the Shi'ite militias subordinate to them are active participants in the fighting, including fighting in the front lines of the Syrian army's current ground offensive. 4 The answer was true at the time the question was asked. In the meantime, the number of Iranian dead has risen to more than fifty. 202-15