1 PROFESSOR A.J. RAYNER CURRICULUM VITAE RECORD Anthony John RAYNER; (27.8.43) University Education September 1964 - June 1965 Scholar of St. John's College, University of Cambridge. June 1965 B.A. (Agriculture), 1st ClassHonours, University of Cambridge. October 1965 - October 1967 Milk Marketing Board Studentship in Agricultural Economics at the University of Manchester December 1967 M.A. (Economics) with distinction from the University of Manchester. December 1974 Ph.D. University of Manchester. Appointments held October 1967 - January 1969 Assistant Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the University of Manchester. January 1969 - October 1970 Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the University of Manchester (accelerated promotion). October 1970 Milk Marketing Board Research fellow at the University of Manchester whilst on leave of absence from the Department of Agricultural Economics. December 1971 Lecturer in Agricultural Economics at the University of Manchester. October 1973 - July 1980 Reader in Agricultural Economics, Department of Economics, University of Nottingham. 2 August 1980 – January 2000 Professor of Agricultural Economics (Personal Chair), Department of Economics, University of Nottingham. (1991/2 -1994/5) (Head of Economics Department, University of Nottingham.) 2000 – Present Emeritus Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Nottingham. Prizes June 1964 Wright Prize, St. John's College, University of Cambridge. January 1967 Agricultural Economics Society Prize Essay. Refereed Journal Articles1 1. Rayner, A.J. and Keith Cowling (1967), "Demand for a Durable Input: An Analysis of the UK Market for Farm Tractors", Review of Economics and Statistics, 49, pp. 590-598. 2. Rayner, A.J., (1968) "Price-Quality Relationships in a Durable Input: Estimation of a Constant Quality Price Index for New Farm Tractors", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 19, pp. 231-245. 3. Rayner, A.J. and Keith Cowling (1968), "The Demand for Farm Tractors in the US and the UK", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50, pp. 896- 912. 4. Rayner, A.J. (1970), "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches: Comment", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 52, pp. 148-150. 5. Rayner, A.J. (1970), "The Demand for Inputs and the Aggregate Supply Function for Agriculture, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 21, pp. 225-238. 6. Cowling, Keith and A.J. Rayner, (1970), "Price, Quality and Market Share", Journal of Political Economy, 78, pp. 1292-1309. 7. Stewart, Jon and A.J. Rayner, (1970), "Qualitative Factors in Linear Regression Analysis", The Manchester School, 38, pp. 339-358. 1 Alphabetical ordering used for co-authored articles where I had an equal share in preparation. 3 8. Colman, David and A.J. Rayner (1971), "Feed Demand Elasticities and Agriculture's Aggregate Supply Elasticity", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 22, pp. 125-129. 9. Rayner, A.J. and John Lingard (1971), "Fertiliser Prices and Quality Change". Journal of Agricultural Economics, 22, pp. 149-162. 10. Lingard, J. and A.J. Rayner (1975), "Productivity Growth in Agriculture: A Measurement Framework", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 26, pp. 87-104. 11. Rayner, A.J., (1975), "Investment Theory, Adjustment Costs and Milk Supply Response", Oxford Agrarian Studies, IV, pp. 1-25. 12. Rayner, A.J. (1977), "The Regional Pricing Policy of the Milk Marketing Board and the Public Interest", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 28, pp. 11- 26. 13. Bates, J.M., A.J. Rayner and P.R. Custance, (1978), "Inflation, Tax Allowances and the Optimal Timing of Machinery Replacement: A Simulation Study under UK Conditions", Oxford Agrarian Studies, VII, pp. 87-104. 14. Parsons, S.T., A.J. Rayner, G.V. Reed and R.J. Young (1978), "Oil Price Inflation and British Agriculture", Oxford Agrarian Studies, VII, pp. 105-124. 15. Rayner, A.J. and G.V. Reed (1979), "Domestic Price Stabilisation, trade restrictions and buffer stock policy", European Review of Agricultural Economics, 5, pp. 102-128. 16. Bates, J.M., A.J. Rayner and P.R. Custance (1979), "Inflation and Farm Tractor Replacement in the US: A Simulation Model", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61, pp. 331-334. 17. Rayner, A.J. (1979), "The Similarity of Opportunity Cost and Social Discount Rates when measured in real terms: A Comment", Journal of Agricultural Economics, XXX, pp. 361-363. 18. Bates, J.M. and A.J. Rayner (1979), "Inflation, Tax Allowances and Machinery Replacement: A Rejoinder", Oxford Agrarian Studies, VIII, pp. 162-166. 19. Bates, J.M. and A.J. Rayner (1980), "Inflation and Tractor Replacement in the US: Reply", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 62, pp. 832-834. 20. Rayner, A.J. and R.J. Young (1980), Information, Hierarchical Model Structures and Forecasting: A Case Study of the Stock of Cows in England and Wales", European Review of Agricultural Economics, 7, pp. 283-307. 21. Rayner, A.J., K.A. Ingersent, G.V. Reed, R.J. Young and N.F. Beard (1982), "A Time Trend Analysis of Sugar and Cereal Yields in the EEC", Oxford Agrarian Studies, XI, pp. 1-47. 4 22. Thomson, K. and A.J. Rayner (1984), "Quantitative Policy Modelling in Agricultural Economics", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 35, pp. 161-176. 23. Rayner, A.J. and G.V. Reed (1984), "The Economics of the International Grain Market", The Kashmir Economic Review, 1, pp. 47-70. 24. Rayner, A.J., G.V. Reed and D.P. Young, (1984), "Trends and Variability in Cereal Yields: A Regression Analysis of the World's Major Producing Regions, Oxford Agrarian Studies, XIII, pp. 90-102. 25. Rayner, A.J., J. Whittaker and K.A. Ingersent (1986), "Productivity Growth in Agriculture Revisited: A Measurement Framework and Some Empirical Results", Journal of Agricultural Economics, XXXVII, pp. 127-150. 26. Ingersent, K.A.., A.J. Rayner and A.N. Jennings (1986) "An Analysis of the EEC Sugar Regime with Reference to Yield Trends, C Sugar Production and Security of Supply", Oxford Agrarian Studies, XV, pp.. 100-128. 27. Rayner, A.J. and C.T. Ennew (1987) "Agricultural Co-operation in the U.K.: A Historical Review, Agricultural Administration and Extension, 227, pp. 93- 108. 28. Ennew, C.T., A.N. Jennings, A.J. Rayner and G.V. Reed (1987) "Price Support Policies and Raw Material Costs: An Empirical Example", Food Marketing, 3, pp.50-56. 29. Ennew, C.T., A.N. Jennings, A.J. Rayner and G.V. Reed (1988) "British Potato Stabilisation Policy in a European Context" Journal of Agricultural Economics, 39 pp.43-60. 30. Ennew, C.T., A.N. Jennings, A.J. Rayner and G.V. Reed (1988) "Incomes from the Potato Crop: The Impact of Support Policy", Farm Management, 6 pp 373-80. 31. McDonald, J.R.S., A.J. Rayner and J.M. Bates (1989) "Market Power in the Food Industry: A Note." Journal of Agricultural Economics, 40, pp. 101-108. 32. Hine, R.C., K.A. Ingersent and A.J. Rayner (1989) "Agriculture in the Uruguay Round: From the Punte del Este Declaration to the Geneva Accord", Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50, pp 385-396. 33. Rayner A.J, K.A. Ingersent and R.C.Hine (1990) "Agriculture in the Uruguay Round: Prospects for Long Term Reform", Oxford Agrarian Studies, 18, pp 3- 21 34 Ennew, C. T., A.J. Rayner, G.V. Reed and B. White (1990) "An Application of Optimal Control Theory to Agricultural Policy Analysis", Agricultural Economics, 4, pp. 335-349 5 35. Lloyd, T.A. and A.J. Rayner (1990) "Land Prices, Rents, and Inflation: A Cointegration Analysis", Oxford Agrarian Studies, 18, pp. 97-111 36. Lloyd, T.A., A.J. Rayner and C. Orme (1991) "Present Value Models of Land Prices in England and Wales", European Review of Agricultural Economics, 18, pp. 141-166 37. O'Connor, H, .A.J.Rayner, K.A.Ingersent and R.C. Hine (1991) "Aggregate Measures of Support in the Uruguay Round: Application to the EC Cereals Sector" Oxford Agrarian Studies, 19, pp 91-103 38. Ennew, C.T., C.W.Morgan and A.J. Rayner (1991 ) " The Future for Futures Markets: the Case of the London Potato Futures Market" Farm Management, 7, pp 607-17 39. Ennew, C.T., C.W.Morgan and A.J. Rayner (1992) " Objective and Subjective Influences on the Decision to Trade Futures: the Case of the London Potato Futures Market" Journal of Agricultural Economics, 43, pp 160-74 40. McDonald, J.R.S., A.J. Rayner and J.M. Bates (1992) "Productivity Growth in the UK Food System 1954-84" Journal of Agricultural Economics, 43, pp. 191-204 41 McDonald, J.R.S., A.J. Rayner and J.M. Bates (1992) " Efficiency Gains in an Integrated Food Sector: UK 1954-84" Oxford Agrarian Studies, 20, pp 3-18 42. Ennew, C. T ., C.W.Morgan an(l A.J. Rayner(1992) " The Role of Attitudes in the Decision to Use Futures Markets: The Case of the London Potato Futures Market " Agribusiness,8, 561574 43 . Ennew, C. T., C.W.Morgan and A.J. Rayner (1993) " Market Efficiency and the Decision to Trade Futures: The Case of the London Potato Futures Market" Review of Futures Markets, 12, 269-292. 44. Lloyd, T.A. and A.J. Rayner (1993) " Cointegration Analysis and the Determinants of Land Prices: Comment" Journal of Agricultural Economics,44,pp. 149-156 45. Cooper, D.N., A.J. Rayner and D Greenaway (1993) "Constant-Quality Price Indices for Agricultural Inputs: Tractors and Fertilisers Revisited" Journal of Agricultural Economics,44,pp 67-81 46. Greenaway, D. G., C.W.Morgan, A.J.Rayner and G.V. Reed (1993) " Trade Liberalisation and Domestic Price Instability in an Agricultural Commodity Market" Applied Economics,25,pp l99-205 47. Cooper, D.N., D Greenaway and A.J. Rayner (1993) "Intra-Industry Trade and Limited Producer Horizons: An Empirical Investigation" Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 129, pp 345-366 6 48. Rayner A.J, K.A. Ingersent and R.C.Hine (1993) "Agriculture in the Uruguay Round: An Assessment" Economic Journal ,103,pp l513-1527 49. Hine, R.C., Ingersent, K.A. and Rayner, A.J. (1994) “Las Negociaciones de la Ronda Uruguay sobre comercio agrario: liberalizacion comercial o comercio dirisido? Revista de Economia, Num 725, pp 100-113. 50. Rayner, A.J. and Cooper, D.N., (1994), “Co-Integration and the UK Demand for Nitrogen Fertiliser”, Applied Economics, 26, 1049-1054. 51. Morgan, C.W., Rayner, A.J. and Ennew, C.T. (1994) “Price Instability and Commodity Futures Markets”, World Development, 22, 1728-1736. 52. Ingersent, K.A., Rayner, A.J. and Hine, R.C. (1995) “Ex Post Evaluation of the Uruguay Round Agricultural Agreement”, The World Economy, 18,707-728. 53. Rayner, A.J., Ingersent, K.A., Hine, R.C. and Ackrill, R.W. (1995) “Does the CAP fit the GATT: Cereals and the Uruguay Round” Oxford Agrarian Studies, 23,117-131. 54. Ackrill, R., Hine, R.C., Rayner, A.J., and Suardi, M. (1997) “Member States and the Preferential Trade and Budget Effects of the 1992 CAP Reform: A Note” Journal of Agricultural Economics, 48, 93-100 55. Aulton, A.J., Ennew, C.T. and Rayner, A.J. (1997) “Efficiency Tests of Futures Markets for UK Agricultural Commodities” Journal of Agricultural Economics, 48,408-424. 56. Cole, M., Rayner, A. J. and Bates, J.M. (1997) “ The Environmental Kuznets Curve: An Empirical application”, Environmental and Development Economics, 2, 401-16. 57. McCorriston, S., Morgan, C.W. and Rayner, A.J. (1998) “Processing Technology, Market Power and Price Transmission”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 49, 185-201 58. Cole, M., Rayner, A. J. and Bates, J.M. (1998) “Trade Liberalisation and the Environment: the Case of the Uruguay Round”, The World Economy, 21, 337-49. 59. Newbold, P., Rayner, T., Kellard, N. and Ennew, C.T. (1998) “Is the Dollar/ECU Exchange Rate a Random Walk”, Applied Financial Economics, 8, 553-8. 60. Newbold,P., Wohar M, Rayner A J, Kellard N and C T Ennew (1998) ‘Two Puzzles in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency’ International Review of Financial Analysis, 7, 95-111. 61. Lloyd, T.A., Morgan, C.W., Rayner, A.J. and Vaillant, C. ( 1999) “The Transmission of World Agricultural Prices in Cote d’Ivoire”, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 8, 125-41. 7 62. Kellard, N., Newbold, P., Rayner, T. and C.Ennew (1999) “The Relative Efficiency of Commodity Futures Markets”, Journal of Futures Markets, 19, 413- 432. 63. Bateman, I., Ennew, C., Lovett, A.A., and A.J. Rayner (1999) “Modelling and Mapping Agricultural Output Values Using Farm Specific Details and Environmental Data Bases”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50, 488-511. 64. Blake, A.T., Rayner, A.J. and G.V.Reed (1999) “A CGE Model of Agricultural Liberalisation: the Uruguay Round and Common Agricultural Policy Reform”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50, 400-24. 65. Morgan, C.W., Rayner, A.J. and Vaillant, C. ( 1999) “Agricultural Futures Markets: A Policy Response to Price Volatility”, Journal of International Development , 11, 893-910. 66. Newbold, P., Rayner, T.,and Kellard, N. (2000) “Long-run Drift, Co-movement and Persistence in Real Wheat and Maize Prices”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 51, 106-21. 67. Cole, M., and A.J .Rayner. (2000) “The Uruguay Round and Air Pollution: Estimating the Composition, Scale and Technique Effects of Trade Liberalisation”, Journal of International Trade and Development, 9, 339-54 68. Kellard, N. Newbold P. and Rayner T. ((2001) “Evaluating Currency Market Efficiency: Are Cointegration Tests Appropriate?”, Applied Financial Economics”, 11, 681-91. 69. McCorriston, S., Morgan, C.W. and Rayner, A.J. (2001) “Price Transmission: The Interaction betweeen Market Power and Returns to Scale”, European Review of Agricultural Economics, 28, 143-59. 70. Lloyd, T. McCorriston, S., Morgan, C.W. and Rayner, A.J. (2001)” The Impact of Food Scares on Price Adjustment in the UK Beef Market, Agricultural Economics, 25, 347-57 71. Kim,T. H., Pfaffenzeller, S., Rayner, T. and Newbold, P. (2003) “Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 24, 539-52. 72. Abrar, S., Morrissey, O. and Rayner, A.J. (2004) “Crop-level Supply Response by Agroclamatic Regions in Ethiopia”, ”, Journal of Agricultural Economics, 55, 289-312. 73. Abrar, S., Morrissey, O. and Rayner, A.J. (2004) “Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in Ethiopia: A Farm-level Analysis”, Journal of International Development, 16, 605-20. 8 74. Pfaffenzeller, S., Newbold, P. and Rayner, T. (2005) “How well are Long-run Commodity Price Series Characterised by Trend Components?”, Journal of International Development, 17, 479-94. 75. McCorriston, S., Morgan, C.W. and Rayner, A.J. (2005) “Imperfect Competition and the Incidence Of Output And Input Taxes In Vertically-Related Markets” Public Finance, 54(1-2), pp 73-83 76. T. A. Lloyd , S. McCorriston , C. W. Morgan , and A. J. Rayner (2006) “Food scares, market power and price transmission: the UK BSE crisis”, European Review of Agricultural Economics,33,1-29. 77. Pfaffenzeller, S., Newbold, P. and Rayner, A. (2007) “ A Short Note on Updating the Grilli-Yang Commodity Price Index”, World Bank Economic Review, 21(1), 151-163 78. Xiuqing Wang, Habtu Weldegebriel and Tony Rayner (2007) “Price Transmission in Vertically Related Markets” China Economic Quarterly, 6(3) 79. T. A. Lloyd , S. McCorriston , C. W. Morgan , A. J. Rayner and H Weldegebriel (2009) “Buyer Power in UK Food Retailing: A First Pass Test” Journal of Agriculture and Food Industrial Organisation,7(1) 80. Habtu Weldegebriel, Xiuqing Wang and Anthony J. Rayner (2012) “Price transmission, market power and industry technology: a note”, China Agricultural Economic Review, 4(3) 281-299. Books (Co-authored or Chapters) 1. Cowling, Keith, David Metcalf and A.J. Rayner (1970), Resource Structure of Agriculture: An Economic Analysis, Pergamon. Reviewed in the Journal of Agricultural Economics, (1971), XXII, pp. 96-97. Reviewed in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, (1972), 54, pp. 540-1. 2. Rayner, A.J., et al (1972), Chapters 4 and 6 in The Demand for Food: An Exercise in Household Budget Analysis, ed. W.J. Thomas, Manchester University Press. Reviewed in the Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1973, XXIV, p. 212. Reviewed in the Economic Journal, 1973, 83, pp. 304-5. 3. Currie, J.M. and A.J. Rayner (1979), "The British Experience", Chapter 2 in Agricultural Marketing Boards: An International Perspective, ed. S. Hoos, Ballinger. Reviewed in the Journal of Agricultural Economics and the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 9 4. Newbold, P., A.J. Rayner and R.J. Young, "Approaches to Milk Supply Forecasting" pp. 130-144. and Rayner, A.J., "Investment theory, adjustment costs and milk supply response" (reprinted from Oxford Agrarian Studies, IV, pp. 145-178) in Comission of the European Communities (1979), Econometric Models Presented to the Beef-Milk Symposium, EUR 6101 EN, Luxembourg. 5. Rayner, A.J. and R.J. Young (1982), "Forecasting Milk Supply in England and Wales: A Hierarchy of Models", Chapter 6 in Forecasting Milk Supply, ed. R. Williams International Dairy Federation. 6. Rayner, A.J. (1984), "Agricultural Economics", Ch. 20 in Information Sources in Economics, 2nd Edit., ed. J. Fletcher, Butterworth. 7. Beard, N.F., A.J. Rayner and G.V. Reed (1984), "A Model and Some Policy Aspects of the CAP Cereals Sector", Ch. 3 in Price and Market Policies in European Agriculture, ed. K. Thomson and R.M. Warren, Proceedings of the 6th Symposium of the European Assoc. of Agricultural Economists. 8. Rayner, A.J. and K.A. Ingersent (1988), "Observations on the Balance Between Public and Private Funding of Agricultural and Food Research", pp 199-200 in Agricultural and Food Research, Vol. III, written evidence, House of Lords, Select Committee on Science and Technology. 9. Ennew, C.T., A.J. Rayner, G.V. Reed, J.A.H. Taylor and B. White (1989)," Simulation and Optimisation in Agricultural Policy Analysis: The Case of the British Potato Market.", pp 175-182, in Agricultural Sector Modelling, edit. S. Baur and W. Henrichsmeyer, Wissenschaftsverlag Vank Kiel. 10. Rayner, A.J. and K.A. Ingersent (1991) "Institutional and Technological Change in Agriculture" Chapter3 in Current Issues in Development Economics, edit. V.N. Balasubramanyam and S. Lall. 11. McDonald, J.R.S., A.J. Rayner and J.M. Bates (1991) " Productivity growth and Structural Change in Agriculture and the UK Food System 1954-84" Ch 9 in P.Midmore (ed) Input-Output Models and the Agricultural Sector, Avebury, Aldershot 12. Milner, C.R. and A.J. Rayner(1992)" Introduction and Overview", Ch 1 in Milner, C.R. and A.J. Rayner (eds) Case Studies in Economic Development Vol 1: Policy Adjustment in Africa, Macmillan. 14. Rayner, A.J. and D.R.Colman ( 1993 ) " Current Issues in Agricultural Economics: Introduction and Overview" Ch 1 in Rayner, A.J. and D.R.Colman (eds) Current Issues in Agricultural Economics, MacMillan 10 14. Rayner,A.J.. K.A.Ingersent and R.C.Hine (1993) "Agricultural Trade and the GATT" Ch 4 in Rayner, A.J. and D.R.Colman (eds) Current Issues in Agricultural Economics, MacMillan 15. Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine (1994) "Introduction" Ch1 in Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine Agriculture in the Uruguay Round, MacMillan 16. Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine (1994) " The EC Perspective" Ch 4 in Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine Agriculture in the Uruguay Round, MacMillan 17. Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine (1994) " Agriculture in the Uruguay Round : An Assessment" Ch 12 in Ingersent, K.A., A.J.Rayner and R.C.Hine Agriculture in the Uruguay Round, MacMillan 18. Morgan, C.W., Rayner, A.J. and Ennew, C.T. (1994) “Trade Liberalisation, Domestic Price Instability and Commodity Futures Markets: The Case of Potatoes”, Ch. 8 in D. Sapsford and C.W. Morgan (eds.) The Economics of Primary Commodities, Edward Elgard. 19. Rayner, A.J. and Welham, S.J. (1995) “Economic and Statistical Considerations in the Measurement of Total Factor Productivity” Ch. 3 in V. Barnett, R. Payne and R. Steiner, Agricultural Sustainability: Economic, Environmental and Statistical Considerations, J. Wiley and Sons. 20. Barnett, V., Johnston, A.E., London, S., Payne, R.W., Welham, S. and Rayner, A.J., (1995) “Sustainability in the Rothamsted Experience”, Ch 9 in V. Barnett, R. Payne and R. Steiner, Agricultural Sustainability: Economic, Environmental and Statistical Considerations, J. Wiley and Sons. 21. Rayner,A.J.,Ingersent,K.A. and R.C.Hine (1995) “Agriculture in the Uruguay Round: An Assessment”, Ch 22 in G.H.Peters, Agricultural Economics, Edward Elgar,Aldershot. 22. Ingersent,K.A. Rayner,A.J.and R.C.Hine (1998) “Introduction and Overview”, Ch.1 in Ingersent,K.A. Rayner,A.J.,and R.C.Hine, The Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, MacMillan 23. Ackrill, R.W., Hine, R.C. and Rayner,A.J. (1998) “Common Agricultural Policy Reform and Implications for Member States: Budget and Preferential Trade Effects”, Ch.6 in Ingersent,K.A. Rayner,A.J.,and R.C.Hine, The Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, MacMillan 24. Ingersent,K.A., Rayner,A.J and R.C.Hine (1998) “Postscript”, Ch.10 in Ingersent,K.A. Rayner,A.J.,and R.C.Hine, The Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, MacMillan