ConsolidDemoIndo_half&title pg.i1 1 3/17/2010 2:33:17 PM The Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies (RSPAS), a part of the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University, is home to The Indonesia Project, a major international centre, which supports research activities on the Indonesian economy and society. Established in 1965 in the School’s Division of Economics, the Project is well known and respected in Indonesia and in other places where Indonesia attracts serious scholarly and official interest. Funded by the ANU and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), the Indonesia Project monitors and analyses recent economic developments in Indonesia; informs Australian governments, business and the wider community about those developments and about future prospects; stimulates research on the Indonesian economy; and publishes the respected Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies. The School’s Department of Political and Social Change (PSC) focuses on domestic politics, social processes and state–society relationships in Asia and the Pacific, and has a long-established interest in Indonesia. Together with PSC and RSPAS, the Project holds the annual Indonesia Update conference, which offers an overview of recent economic and political developments and devotes attention to a significant theme in Indonesia’s development. The Project’s Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies publishes the economic and political overviews, while the proceedings related to the theme of the conference are published in the Indonesia Update Series. The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) was established as an autonomous organization in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are the Regional Economic Studies (RES, including ASEAN and APEC), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world. 00 Prelims ii-iv.indd 2 3/17/10 2:03 PM Indonesia Update Series Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia Elections, Institutions and Society edited by EDwarD aSPInall and MarcuS MIEtznEr InstItute of southeast asIan studIes singapore ConsolidDemoIndo_half&title pg.i2 2 3/17/2010 2:33:17 PM First published in Singapore in 2010 by ISEAS Publishing Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Pasir Panjang Singapore 119614 E-mail: [email protected] http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. © 2010 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of the Institute or its supporters. ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Problems of democratisation in Indonesia : elections, institutions and society / edited by Edward Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner. (Indonesia update series) 1. Democratization—Indonesia—Congresses. 2. Elections—Indonesia—Congresses. 3. Decentralization in government—Indonesia—Congresses. 4. Women—Political activity—Indonesia—Congresses. 5. Indonesia—Politics and government—1998—Congresses. I. Aspinall, Edward. II. Mietzner, Marcus. III. Australian National University. Indonesia Project. IV. Indonesia Update Conference (2009 : Canberra, Australia) DS644.4 I41 2009 2010 ISBN 978-981-4279-90-1 (soft cover) ISBN 978-981-4279-89-5 (hard cover) ISBN 978-981-4279-91-8 (E-book PDF) Cover: Sarijo, a member of the Golkar party’s security forces, is pictured here at a Golkar rally in Yogyakarta in the lead-up to the 2009 general election. Photo courtesy of Emanuel Danu Primanto. Edited and typeset by Beth Thomson, Japan Online, Canberra Indexed by Angela Grant, Sydney Printed in Singapore by Utopia Press Pte Ltd 00 Prelims ii-iv.indd 4 3/17/10 2:03 PM Contents Tables vii Maps and figures ix Contributors xi Acknowledgments xiii Glossary xv 1 Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia: An Overview 1 Marcus Mietzner and Edward Aspinall 2 Indonesia’s Place in Global Democracy 21 Larry Diamond Part I Managing Democracy 3 Indonesia’s 2009 Elections: Defective System, Resilient Democracy 53 Rizal Sukma 4 Voters and the New Indonesian Democracy 75 Saiful Mujani and R. William Liddle 5 Indonesia’s 2009 Elections: Performance Challenges and Negative Precedents 100 Adam Schmidt 6 The Professionalisation of Politics: The Growing Role of Polling Organisations and Political Consultants 122 Muhammad Qodari 7 The Indonesian Party System after the 2009 Elections: Towards Stability? 141 Dirk Tomsa v vi Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia 8 The Parliament in Indonesia’s Decade of Democracy: People’s Forum or Chamber of Cronies? 160 Stephen Sherlock Part II society and Democratic Contestation 9 Entertainment, Domestication and Dispersal: Street Politics as Popular Culture 181 Ariel Heryanto 10 The Rise and Fall of Political Gangsters in Indonesian Democracy 199 Ian Wilson 11 Increasing the Proportion of Women in the National Parliament: Opportunities, Barriers and Challenges 219 Sharon Bessell 12 Pushing the Boundaries: Women in Direct Local Elections and Local Government 243 Hana A. Satriyo Part III Local Democracy 13 Decentralisation and Local Democracy in Indonesia: The Marginalisation of the Public Sphere 267 Michael Buehler 14 Services Rendered: Peace, Patronage and Post-conflict Elections in Aceh 286 Blair Palmer 15 Electoral Politics and Democratic Freedoms in Papua 307 Richard Chauvel 16 The Normalisation of Local Politics? Watching the Presidential Elections in Morotai, North Maluku 330 Sidney Jones Index 349 tabLes 2.1 The growth of electoral democracy, 1973–2006 22 2.2 Cases of loss of democracy, 1999–2009 26 2.3 Trends in Indonesia’s scores on political rights and civil liberties, 1997–2009 31 2.4 Comparative measures of democracy and governance in emerging democracies, 1998 and 2008 32 2.5 Perceived extent of and desire for democracy among emerging democracies, 2006 38 3.1 Results of the 2009 legislative elections 56 4.1 Exposure to voter mobilisation through direct contact and the mass media, April 2009 82 4.2 Campaign exposure and party advertisements most often seen, read or listened to, April 2009 83 4.3 Government performance in selected socio-economic areas 89 4.4 Multinomial logistic regression analysis of voting for parties, with Partai Demokrat as the reference category 92 4.5 Multivariate analysis of presidential/vice-presidential election 94 5.1 Main changes to the electoral system introduced by Law No. 10/2008 on General Elections 108 5.2 Internationally accepted criteria for electoral performance and Indonesia’s electoral performance in 2009 109 5.3 Votes for the three highest-ranking parties versus invalid votes, April 2009 115 6.1 Four possible conditions for a candidate’s name recognition and likeability 133 6.2 Three possible positions for an incumbent seeking re-election 135 7.1 Legislative election results, 2009 144 vii viii Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia 7.2 Election results of the six core parties, 1999–2009 146 7.3 Fragmentation of the Indonesian party system: biggest parties’ share of the vote, 1999–2009 154 7.4 Party fragmentation at the provincial level: number of parties in provincial parliaments, 2009 155 12.1 Numbers of female and male candidates in direct local elections, 2005–2008 245 12.2 Numbers of women and men elected in direct local elections, 2005–2008 246 12.3 Number of direct local elections, and number and percentage of women elected, 2005–2008 247 12.4 Political parties and coalitions nominating women candidates in direct local elections, 2005–2007 248 13.1 Background of all candidates in gubernatorial elections, 2005–2008 275 13.2 Initiators of local government regulations in four districts and municipalities, 2001–2006 279 14.1 Distribution of seats in the Aceh provincial parliament, 2009 291 14.2 Seats won by Partai Aceh in Aceh’s 23 district parliaments, 2009 292 14.3 Votes for parties (versus votes for individual candidates) in the district legislative elections 294 MaPs anD FIgures MaPs 1.1 Indonesia xx 14.1 Aceh 287 15.1 Papua 308 16.1 North Maluku 331 FIgures 2.1 Average GDP growth in Indonesia and other emerging democracies, 1999–2008 29 2.2 Scores on Human Development Index of Indonesia and other emerging democracies, 1995 and 2006 30 2.3 Control of corruption in Indonesia and other emerging democracies, 1998 and 2008 36 2.4 Support for and satisfaction with democracy in Indonesia and other East Asian emerging democracies, 2006 39 2.5 Rejection of authoritarianism in Indonesia and other East Asian emerging democracies, 2006 40 2.6 Support for liberal values in Indonesia and other East Asian emerging democracies, 2006 41 2.7 Categories of democrats in Indonesia and other East Asian emerging democracies, 2006 42 2.8 Trust in state institutions in Indonesia and other East Asian emerging democracies, 2006 44 4.1 Mean score for likeability of party leader 80 4.2 Mean score for feeling close to a particular party 81 4.3 Campaign exposure and candidate advertisements most often seen, read or listened to, July 2009 84 ix