Preventing Political Violence Against Civilians Rethinking Political Violence series Series editor: R oger Mac Ginty, Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Manchester, UK This exciting series provides a space in which to interrogate and challenge much of the conventional wisdom on political violence. Books in the series are at the forefront of research, pushing forward new debates in the field of political violence without rehashing clichés about security, violence and ‘terrorism’. Authors from both the critical and orthodox perspectives use the book series to reappraise some of the fundamental questions facing societies on how to deal with and interpret organised violence. Many of the books in the series are comparative, draw on fieldwork, and use insights from a variety of methodologies. Titles include : Linda Åhäll and Laura J. Shepherd (editors) GENDER, AGENCY AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE Barrie Collins RWANDA 1994 The Myth of the A kazu Genocide Conspiracy and Its Consequences Aoibhín de Búrca PREVENTING POLITICAL VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS Nationalist Militant Conflict in Northern Ireland, Israel and Palestine Stephen Gibson and Simon Mollan ( editors) REPRESENTATIONS OF PEACE AND CONFLICT Caroline Holmqvist POLICING WARS On Military Intervention in the Twenty-First Century David Martin Jones and M.L.R Smith SACRED VIOLENCE Political Religion in a Secular Age Jaremey McMullin EX-COMBATANTS AND THE POST-CONFLICT STATE Challenges of Reintegration Stephan Parmentier, Bert Ingelaere, Jacques Haers and Barbara Segaert (e ditors) GENOCIDE, RISK AND RESILIENCE An Interdisciplinary Approach Celeste Ward Gventer, David Martin Jones and M.L.R Smith (editors) THE NEW COUNTER-INSURGENCY ERA IN CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE Rethinking Political Violence series Series Standing Order ISBN 978–0230–24376–7 You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBN quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England Preventing Political Violence Against Civilians Nationalist Militant Conflict in Northern Ireland, Israel and Palestine Aoibhín de Búrca © Aoibhín de Búrca 2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-43379-4 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. 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Contents List of Figures vii Acknowledgements viii List of Abbreviations x 1 Introduction 1 Case selection 3 Methodology 5 Research process and fieldwork 7 Conclusion 12 2 The Study of Terrorism and Political Violence 13 Civilians 15 New and old terrorism 18 Terrorism and political violence: what is it? 21 Causes and explanations of terrorism and political violence 23 The need for a new research agenda 29 Social movement theory and contentious politics 32 Explanatory factors: political opportunities and constraints, mobilising structures and cultural framing 36 Model of the interaction of explanatory factors 4 2 Conclusion 43 3 Northern Ireland and the Provisional IRA 46 I ntroduction 46 Background to militant republicanism in Ireland 4 7 The Provisional IRA: strategy, aims and targets 50 Wave One and Wave Two of IRA ACV 58 Wave One (1971–1976) 60 Wave Two (1987–1993) 73 Comparison of Wave One and Wave Two 86 Further developments and the current situation 88 Conclusion 90 v vi Contents 4 Israel and Palestine, Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades 92 Introduction 92 Background to militancy in Israel and Palestine 93 Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades: strategy, aims and targets 97 Wave One and Wave Two of Hamas and AAMB ACV 107 Wave One (1993–1997) 110 Wave Two (2000–2005) 120 Comparison of Wave One and Wave Two 130 Further developments and the current situation 132 Conclusion 137 5 Implications and Challenges for Policy Makers 139 Introduction 139 Similarities and differences between case studies 139 Theoretical implications 143 Political opportunities and constraints 144 Policy implications 149 Challenges 161 Findings and conclusions 164 Appendices 171 Appendix A: Summary of Provisional IRA Killings 1970–1998 171 Appendix B: Summary of Hamas Killings 1988–2011 1 72 Appendix C: Summary of AAMB Casualties 2000–2011 172 Notes 173 Bibliography 175 Index 193 List of Figures 2.1 M odel of explanatory factors and interaction 4 3 2.2 R elationship of explanatory factors to High ACV 4 4 2.3 R elationship of explanatory factors to Low ACV 4 5 3.1 I RA structure and organisation 5 2 3.2 I RA casualties 5 3 3.3 I RA casualties 1970–1998 5 7 3.4 I RA ACV 1970–1998 5 8 3.5 I RA (IED) ACV 1970–1998 5 9 3.6 D etailed table of IRA ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 8 7 3.7 O verall summary of IRA ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 8 8 4.1 Q assam Brigades structure and organisation 1 00 4.2 H amas casualties 1 03 4.3 H amas casualties 1988–2011 1 03 4.4 H amas ACV 1988–2011 1 04 4 .5 A AMB casualties 1 04 4.6 A AMB casualties 2000–2006 1 05 4.7 A AMB ACV 2000–2006 1 06 4.8 I sraeli and Palestinian casualty figures 2000–2005 1 23 4.9 P alestinian support for ‘military operations’ against Israeli targets 1 28 4.10 D etailed table of Hamas and AAMB ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 1 31 4.11 O verall summary of Hamas and AAMB ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 1 32 5.1 M odel of explanatory factors and interaction 1 65 5.2 O verall summary of IRA ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 1 66 5.3 O verall summary of Hamas and AAMB ACV in Wave One and Wave Two 1 67 vii Acknowledgements I would like to thank all my former colleagues in University College Dublin’s John Hume Institute for Global Irish Studies, in particular Laura McAtackney, Pascal Pragnere and Gessica Cosi, as well as Thomas Kador, Stefanie Lehner and Catherine Morris. They were a strong support network during the long days of writing and research, and remain good friends. I would also like to thank Brian Jackson, who was the Director of the John Hume Institute during my time in UCD. The extensive fieldwork could not have been completed without the Institute’s funding, and Brian was a great ally for a young academic researcher. In the School of Politics and International Relations I would like to thank Vincent Durac, who gave generously of his time during my research. His support, critical analysis and sense of humour helped greatly. A special ‘thank you’ must also go to those colleagues who started in UCD at the same time as I did: Susan McDermott, Niall Morris and Michelle D’Arcy. The Institute of British Irish Studies (IBIS) in the School also deserves a special mention. It was a great resource for those of us working on North/South and British/Irish co-operation. Particular thanks must go to those housed in IBIS who tolerated impromptu visits to my main conspirator Susan McDermott, and chats with Cillian McGrattan, Michael Anderson, Tom Garvin and Dara Gannon. In the West Bank and Gaza, I would especially like to thank Bethlehem University and everyone who assisted me with interviews, access and research material. The people of Bethlehem and Jerusalem, where I stayed for short study visits and where I was based from January to April 2010, were incredibly hospitable despite their difficulties, as were the people of Gaza where I conducted fieldwork in 2011. For the indi- vidual who learnt to drive in the West Bank (leading to some of the most bizarre driving habits I have ever seen) and who played loud Spanish music when careering around the roads of the West Bank and Israel, I thank you for lifting my spirits on the tough days. I would especially like to thank the editors at Palgrave Macmillan: Eleanor Davey Corrigan and Harriet Baker. Their encouragement, patience and phenomenal organisational skills were hugely reassuring and incredibly professional. The constructive comments from the reviewers greatly improved the book, and were gratefully received. The viii Acknowledgements ix feedback of the Series Editor Roger MacGinty was a pleasure to engage with, and reminded me of the passion I had for my research even at the tedious editing stage. My current employers have been very generous in allowing me to take time off to write this book. Sinéad Riordan in the Royal Irish Academy’s Policy and International Relations Department merits a very special thank you and was immensely supportive. As deadlines approached, the kind words of encouragement from Irish Humanities Alliance members were also much appreciated. Finally, I’d like to thank my family and friends for their patience and encouragement, in the face of seemingly endless discussions about inter- national conflicts, the Middle East and Northern Ireland, and deadline induced introversion and absence. Despite the uncharacteristic solitude during writing, the support and solidarity was always appreciated and made the enforced unsociability less of a chore. John and my parents in particular were a source of unstinting support, and their encouragement from start to finish made the book possible. Having the intricacies of how social movement theory relates to various international conflicts mischievously thrown back at you in discussions became a spur to write it all down!