Presidential Rhetoric and the Public Agenda This page intentionally left blank Presidential Rhetoric and the Public Agenda Constructing the War on Drugs Andrew B. Whitford and Jeff Yates The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore © 2009 The Johns Hopkins University Press All rights reserved. Published 2009 Printed in the United States of America on acid- free paper 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 The Johns Hopkins University Press 2715 North Charles Street Baltimore, Mary land 21218- 4363 www .press .jhu .edu Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Whitford, Andrew B. Presidential rhetoric and the public agenda : constructing the War on Drugs / Andrew B. Whitford and Jeff Yates. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN- 13: 978- 0- 8018- 9346- 9 (hardcover : alk. paper) ISBN- 10: 0- 8018- 9346- 1 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Presidents— United States. 2. Po liti cal leadership— United States. 3. Rhetoric— Political aspects—U nited States. 4. Pol itic al oratory— United States. 5. Presidents—U nited States— Language. 6. Drug control— United States. I. Yates, Jeff, 1965– II. Title. JK516.W487 2009 363.450973—dc22 2008052444 A cata log record for this book is available from the British Library. Special discounts are available for bulk purchases of this book. For more information, please contact Special Sales at 410- 516- 6936 or specialsales@press .jhu.edu. The Johns Hopkins University Press uses environmentally friendly book materials, including recycled text paper that is composed of at least 30 percent post- consumer waste, whenever possible. All of our book papers are acid- free, and our jackets and covers are printed on paper with recycled content. Contents List of Figures and Tables vii Preface ix 1 Presidential Leadership and Policy Construction 1 2 Presidential Rhetoric as Policy Leadership 11 3 A Presidential History of the War on Drugs 34 4 The Words of War: Po liti cal Rhetoric and the War on Drugs 74 5 Presidential Policy Leadership and Federal Enforcement: The Drug Enforcement Administration 95 6 For the People: The U.S. Attorneys and the Impact of Executive Signals on Prosecutorial Priorities 115 7 Taking It to the States: Testing the Limits of Presidential Infl uence and State Drug Enforcement 139 8 The Social Construction of Presidential Agenda- Setting 157 Appendixes A. Variables for Chapter 5 169 B. Variables for Chapter 6 171 C. Variables for Chapter 7 173 D. Estimation Method 175 Notes 177 Bibliography 193 Index 209 This page intentionally left blank Figures and Tables figures 3.1 A Timeline of Administrative Developments in the War on Drugs 41 4.1 Initiates of Illegal Drugs, 1962– 1999 76 4.2 Percentage of Twelfth Graders Who Use Marijuana on a Daily Basis, 1975– 2005 77 4.3 Annual Number of Drug Deaths in the Nation per 100,000 Citizens, 1979– 1998 77 4.4 Distribution of State Drug Deaths per 100,000 State Citizens, 1980– 1998 78 4.5 Public Opinion on Whether Enough Money Is Spent to Deal with Drug Addiction, by Region, 1980– 2006 79 4.6 Distribution of Regional Public Opinion That Too Little Money Is Spent to Deal with Drug Addiction, 1980– 2006 80 4.7 Congressional Hearings on Narcotics as a Percentage of All Congressional Hearings, 1946– 2002 80 4.8 Percentage of Stories in the New York Times Related to the Drug Problem, 1969– 2003 81 4.9 Percentage of Party Platforms Devoted to the War on Drugs, 1972– 2008 82 4.10 Presidential Attention to Narcotics, 1969– 2002 85 5.1 DEA Arrests per 100,000 State Citizens 103 5.2 Expected Additional DEA Arrests, Assuming the President Maximizes Drug Rhetoric 110 5.3 Expected Additional DEA Arrests, Assuming the President Uses Moderate Drug Rhetoric 112 6.1 Percentage of Drug Cases, U.S. Attorney Cases Handled 125 6.2 Percentage of Drug Cases, U.S. Attorney Cases Concluded 126 viii Figures and Tables 6.3 Expected Additional U.S. Attorney Cases Handled, Assuming the President Maximizes Drug Rhetoric 131 6.4 Expected Additional U.S. Attorney Cases Handled, Assuming the President Uses Moderate Drug Rhetoric 132 6.5 Expected Additional U.S. Attorney Cases Concluded, Assuming the President Maximizes Drug Rhetoric 134 6.6 Expected Additional U.S. Attorney Cases Concluded, Assuming the President Uses Moderate Drug Rhetoric 135 7.1 State Drug Charges as a Percentage of All State Criminal Charges 150 7.2 Expected Additional State- Level Drug Arrests, Assuming the President Maximizes Drug Rhetoric 153 7.3 Expected Additional State- Level Drug Arrests, Assuming the President Uses Moderate Drug Rhetoric 154 8.1 Percentage of the Federal Prison Population Incarcerated for Drug Offenses 165 tables 5.1 GEE Estimates for DEA Arrests per 100,000 State Citizens (Including Fixed Effects for Administrators) 107 5.2 GEE Estimates for DEA Arrests per 100,000 State Citizens (Including Intercept Shift for Forfeiture) 108 5.3 GEE Estimates for DEA Arrests per 100,000 State Citizens (Including Fixed Effects and Intercept Shift) 109 6.1 GEE Estimates for the Narcotics Composition of the U.S. Attorney Cases Handled 128 6.2 GEE Estimates for the Narcotics Composition of the U.S. Attorney Cases Concluded 129 7.1 GEE Estimates for State Drug Enforcement 151 Preface All research projects are complicated, and this book is certainly no exception. We began this fully understanding neither the causes and consequences of the war on drugs nor the demands imposed by book projects like this one. We had certain factors on our side, though. We drew on two powerful and richly developed litera- tures in the social sciences. The fi rst was on presidential rhetoric, populated by the work of eminent scholars recognizable by their last names alone: Tulis, Ker- nell, Edwards. The literature they helped establish, along with other students of the presidency, provided a theoretical base on which to develop and refi ne our primary argument. The second literature centers on social construction and leadership in large, complex organizations. Here the names are also renowned: Kaufman, Selznick, Weick. We specifi cally drew on studies of presidential leadership and manage- ment of the bureaucrats that support their administration. We pulled these two literatures together to show how an executive can use the spoken word to lead those who implement his policy vision and positions. Also facilitating our research was that our primary thesis— that presidents lead and manage by policy signals sent from the “bully pulpit”— was part of the conventional wisdom about the presidency, though systematic testing of this premise was scant. Rather than offer anecdotal evidence from American po liti cal history, it is more useful to point out that the idea of leading large numbers of agents by direct signaling and symbols predates both the American founding and, indeed, most of Eu ro pe an history. Consider how one leadership scholar expressed these ideas long ago in a place far away from American politics: Fighting with a large army under your command is nowise different from fi ght- ing with a small one: it is merely a question of instituting signs and signals. This is one of the principles found in Sun Tzu’s classic statement on leadership and management, The Art of War, fi rst described in 6th century b.c. China (chap. 5,