Precision agriculture and the future of farming in Europe Annex 1: Technical Horizon Scan Precision agriculture and the future of farming in Europe Annex 1: Technical Horizon Scan STOA IP/G/STOA/FWC-2013-1/Lot 7/SC5 August 2016 Abstract The aim of the ’Precision agriculture and the future of farming in Europe’ project is to identify implications for legislative pathways for precision agriculture in Europe by mapping areas of concern around future developments. The project has three phases: • Analysis of underlying technologies and existing insights from the field, as well as anticipated future developments; • Identification of possible impacts of the uptake of precision agriculture, construction of possible future scenarios, and exploration of these scenarios to map the related opportunities and concerns; • Identification of legal instruments that may need to be modified or reviewed, including — where appropriate — areas identified for anticipative parliamentary work, in accordance with the conclusions reached within the project. This annex to the study is the outcome of the first phase of the foresight study and consists of six detailed technical briefing papers. PE 581.892 STOA – Science and Technology Options Assessment The Scientific Foresight project 'Precision Agriculture and the future of farming in Europe' has been requested by the Science and Technology Options Assessment Panel (STOA). This technical horizon scan of the study was conducted by a team of scientists from Wageningen University and VetEffecT upon the request of the Science and Technology Options Assessment Panel and managed by the Scientific Foresight Unit at the European Parliament. AUTHORS Phase 1: Technical Horizon scanning. Responsible: Remco Schrijver (VetEffecT) Technical supervision: Krijn Poppe (Wageningen UR) Briefing paper 1: David Dewar, Remco Schrijver (VetEffecT) Briefing paper 2: Remco Schrijver, David Dewar (VetEffecT) Briefing paper 3: Corné Kempenaar, Kees Lokhorst (Wageningen UR; Vilentum University of Applied Sciences) Briefing paper 4: Krijn Poppe, Marc-Jeroen Bogaardt, Tamme van der Wal (Wageningen UR) Briefing paper 5: Josse De Baerdemaker (KU Leuven; Kyoto University, Japan) Briefing paper 6: Jocey Quinn (Plymouth University). RESPONSIBLE ADMINISTRATOR Lieve Van Woensel Scientific Foresight Unit (STOA) Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSION Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact STOA or to subscribe to its newsletter please write to: [email protected] This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.ep.europa.eu/stoa/ Manuscript completed in August 2016 Brussels, © European Union, 2016 DISCLAIMER The content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for their parliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non- commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. PE 581.892 ISBN 978-92-823-9556-1 doi: 10.2861/763030 QA-02-16-683-EN-N Precision agriculture and the future of farming in Europe Table of contents 1. Introduction 2. Overview of agricultural production in the EU 3. Business models of farming in Europe 4. Trends in precision agriculture in the EU 5. The economics and governance of digitalisation and precision agriculture 6. Environmental impact of precision agriculture 7. Skilled workforces and precision agriculture STOA – Science and Technology Options Assessment 1. Introduction The development of agriculture in Europe is at an important crossroads. Technological developments make it possible to produce plant and animal products with increasing efficiency and less environmental impact, due to digitalisation. The global demand for food is increasing due to population growth. The food exports of the 28 EU Member States (EU-28) have reached a value of €122 billion, while the EU took over the position of leading exporter from the US in 2013. However, at the same time, agriculture in Europe is challenged by an ageing workforce, rural exodus of young people, climate change, urbanisation, shortage of resources, land grabbing, and faces strong competition from upcoming suppliers in south-east Asia and South America. Because there is limited potential for increased demand on the food markets of the EU itself, export of agricultural products has become a key factor for generating growth and jobs in agriculture and the food industry in the EU. In view of the above, what are the policy concerns and options, to stimulate a flourishing European agricultural sector that offers jobs for young people and for the service industry, where farmers and population benefit from the digitalisation, metadata and the Internet of Things rather than be compromised by ‘IT’? In addition, the study focuses on European farming practices which respect the environment as well as animal welfare, all in a competitive economic setting on the world market. In a set of six technical reviews, key aspects of precision agriculture, concerns and future trends are discussed. These are: 1. Agricultural production in the EU; 2. Business models of farming in Europe; 3. Trends in precision agriculture in the EU; 4. The economics and governance of digitalisation and precision agriculture; 5. Environmental impact of precision farming, and 6. Skilled workforces and precision agriculture. The developments in precision agriculture have an impact on various pieces of EU legislation:  For the common agricultural policy (CAP), Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 – Rural Development Regulation; Regulation (EU) No 1307/2013 – Direct Payments Regulation; Regulation (EU) No 1308/2013 – Common Market Organisation (CMO) Regulation; and Regulation (EU) No 1306/2013 – Horizontal Regulation are relevant.  For regional policy, Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013 lays down common provisions on the European Structural and Investment Funds, such as the Regional Development Fund, and the Cohesion Fund which can support development of the regions.  For the environment, the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC) and more particularly Council Directive 91/676/EEC (Nitrates Directive) is relevant, as it relates to the protection of water against pollution from agricultural sources. Also for the environment, Directive 2001/81/EC (National Emission Ceilings Directive) sets upper limits for each Member State for total emissions in 2010 of the four pollutants responsible for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone pollution (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and ammonia).  A foundation for food production lies in the General Food Law Regulation (EC) 178/2002, which provides the general principles of food safety. These include the requirements on food businesses to place safe food on the market, for traceability of food, for presentation of food, for the withdrawal or recall of unsafe food placed on the market, and that food and feed imported into, and exported from, the EU must comply with food law. Precision agriculture and the future of farming in Europe  For data protection, a relevant piece of legislation is Regulation (EU) 2016/679 of 27 April 2016 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data, and repealing Directive 95/46/EC (General Data Protection Regulation). This regulation aims to strengthen citizens’ fundamental rights in the digital age and facilitate business by simplifying rules for companies in the Digital Single Market The technical reviews may not cover the complete array of all possible aspects to precision agriculture. They are written to cover the major issues that are relevant for the European Parliament and for the Scientific Foresight phase of this STOA study, which explores possible future scenarios on possible concerns and opportunities (Annex 2 of this report). A briefing with legal reflections regarding precision agriculture will be published in early 2017. BRIEFING PAPER 1 OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE EU STOA–Science and Technology Options Assessment 2