Working paper Political Violence in Pakistan 1988-2010 Patterns and Trends Jacob N. Shapiro C. Christine Fair Rasul Bakhsh Rais February 2012 ICG Project Report Political Violence in Pakistan 1988-2010: Patterns and Trends Jacob N. Shapiro, Rasul Bakhsh Rais Political Violence in Pakistan: Myths vs. Realities Politics violence has long been endemic in Pakistan, but the scale, scope, and geographic distribution of the problem has not been systematically studies. This gap poses problems for both policy and academic research. On the policy side, decision makers lack credible quantitative data with which to weigh the relative costs of politically-motivated violence against the many other challenges facing Pakistan. On the academic side, scholars lack the ability to quantitatively assess the role of violence in Pakistani’s political and economic development since the end of the Zia- ul-Haq era in 1988. To remedy these gaps we developed incident-level data on political violence in Pakistan from 1988 to the present. These data include a range of details on 27,555 incidents to help: (cid:120) Identify broad patterns of violence across multiple actors and types of events for each district and province of Pakistan. (cid:120) Bring clarity to policy debates over who suffered which kinds of violence, where, and when. (cid:120) Inform basic research in political science, sociology, and South Asian studies. Core policy-relevant questions which can be more effectively-studies using these data include: - What are the links between electoral politics and violence? - How does violence affect economic growth and development? - How does public opinion respond to militant violence? - Why do political organisations choose different strategies (normal political contestation, violence) at different times and different places? Findings Our initial analysis of the new data reveal four key patterns: - Balochistan, FATA, and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa were peaceful in absolute terms, relative to the rest of Pakistan, until 2004-5. In per-capita terms these regions were roughly as violent as Sindh, though less violent than Punjab. - Violence of all types increased dramatically in all three areas from 2004-on. The timing of this increase is inconsistent with narratives that lay blame for recent increases in political violence in either: (a) the spread of madrassas (these were around beforehand and are prevalent in areas that have not seen a surge in violence); (b) U.S. involvement in Afghanistan (which started in 2001, though the war there became more intense from 2005 on); or (c) a national anti-state campaign spurred by a state crackdown following the Lal Masjid siege (that would imply a national increase in violence which we do not see, though could be strategic decision by militants not to bring the war to Punjab and Sindh). - Levels of sectarian violence in Punjab have been relatively consistent for the last 20 years, there is no recent increase. - Most of Sindh has been quite peaceful; violence in that province is almost entirely concentrated in Karachi. Each of these patterns has strong policy implications. The remainder of this section discusses each finding and its implications. Political Violence pre-2005 Geographically, there appear to be two clear patterns in terms of location and time—when and where violence surged and which types of violent acts, actors and groups were involved. In Sindh and Punjab that are economically more developed, more urban and more populous, compared to other provinces and regions, our data indicate violent activity taken a fairly consistent toll over the last twenty years, with minor spikes in some years. Three types of violent activities—assassinations, terrorist attacks (attacks targeting civilians), and riots/demonstrations have occurred in Punjab and Sindh regularly since 1988. The correlation between provinces in the timing of different kinds of violence is low—the bivariate yearly correlation in casualties per capita from terrorism between Punjab and Sindh, for example, is only .12 and is not statistically significant. The correlation within provinces in the timing of different forms of violence is also fairly low in Punjab and Sindh, with the correlation in annual casualties per-capita ranging from .43 for assassinations and terrorism, to only .20 for militant attacks and riots/demonstrations. Overall levels of violence between 1988-2005 in Balochistan, FATA, and KPK were low in absolute numbers. In per capita terms, given their smaller populations, these areas were roughly as violent as the more populous provinces. From 1988-2005, per-capita violence in Balochistan lay between that in Sindh and Punjab, FATA suffered more casualties per capita than Punjab or Sindh, and rates of political violence in KPK were lower than in any other province. If we break the patterns down by type of attack, we see that while rates of violence changed little within provinces before 2005, there were consistent differences between provinces in the forms political violence took. Assassinations: Assassinations are relatively rare in all provinces except for Sindh where the rate of per capita assassinations is fully three times as high as in Punjab and more than five times as high as Balochistan or the FATA. Militant Attacks: Even before the massive increase in violence in FATA since 2005, militant attacks took place at a much higher per-capita rate there than anywhere else, roughly three times as often as in Balochistan and more than 10 times as often as in the other three provinces. Sindh suffered few militant attacks (attacks against the security forces), an average of 9 per year causing 609 casualties, as did Punjab which suffered only 14 per year on average. By comparison, FATA and KPK suffered 38 and 25 militant attacks per year on average. Direct challenges to the state security forces, in other words, were rare in Punjab and Sindh. Violent Riots/Demonstrations: Riots and demonstrations are an endemic fact of political life in Sindh, averaging 122 per year. On a per-capita basis, however, Sindh, FATA, and Balochistan suffer similar rates of casualties from violent demonstrations. As one might expect given the high rates of sectarian conflict in Balochistan, these events are more deadly there, causing roughly 6.1 casualties per incident as compared to 3.4 in Sindh. Changes in Balochistan, FATA, and KP Levels of political violence change for the worse after 2005 in Balochistan, FATA, KP and in Balochistan. In Balochistan, militant and terrorist attacks actually start to pick up in 2002-03, well before the rise of militancy in FATA and KPK. This rise is modest in scale compared to FATA and KP—approximately 4-fold—and is specific to two types of acts of violence—attacks by the state forces and attacks by militants. The timing of the change in trends in Balochistan, pre-dating the increase in FATA and KPK by three years, and the nature of the violence, suggest that it represents a different political dynamic. FATA has long had the highest overall rate of violence per-capita in Pakistan—prior to 2006 it suffered 4.7 casualties per 100,000 per year, compared to 3.9 per 100,000 in Sindh over that period—with the violence distributed roughly evenly between militant attacks, terrorist attacks, and riots/demonstrations. From 2006 onwards though, FATA saw a massive increase in violence, suffering a 20-fold increase in annual casualties to a shocking 100 per 100,000 per year. This increase reflects the outright war between the state and militants in FATA, with the rates of state- initiated and militant attacks both rising more than 12-fold, and is reflected to a lesser extent in other types of violence. Tragic as the changes in FATA have been, the change in KPK has been even more striking. Before 2005 KPK was the least violent part of Pakistan, suffering only .9 casualties per 100,000 per year from political violence, compared to 3.3 per 100,000 per year in the rest of the country. After 2005, KPK saw a 14-fold increase in casualties from political violence, becoming the second-most violent part of the country. This reversal, going from the least politically-violent region to the second most violent, was driven by the massive 46-fold increase in militant attacks (and concomitant state response) which largely reflects the campaign to contest Swat and Malakand. To summarize, our data accord with what might be thought of as common-sense observation. Since 2005 there has been some militarization of violent contestation in Balochistan; a war has been fought in the FATA, rending an already violent region more violent; and the previously stable province of KPK has faced high levels of political violence for the first time, albeit in a concentrated manner. Sectarian Violence in Punjab Sectarian violence in Punjab, Pakistan’s economic heartland and most-populous province, has been an increasing concern in policy circles since the Lal Masjid siege in (July 3-11, 2007). Contrary to much commentary, our data suggest levels of violence in Punjab have not substantially increased in the last few years. Table 2 highlights the fact that while riots and demonstrations have become more frequent in Punjab since 2005, other forms of political violence have actually become a bit less frequent. While the absolute numbers have not increased, the toll from militant and terrorist attacks in Punjab has increased dramatically, due almost entirely to the increasing deadliness of such attacks. Since 2005 the average toll per militant attack in Punjab has increased by more than 1000%, while that for terrorist attacks has more than doubled. Sectarian violence in Punjab has not been abnormally high in recent years in terms of the number of incidents, it was in fact higher in the late1990s than today. Figure 1 shows the patterns of sectarian attacks over time in Punjab, in terms of both the number of attacks and the number of casualties. While the number of deaths from sectarian violence has been much higher in 2010 than in previous years, sectarian violence in Punjab reached similar levels in 1999. Distribution of Violence in Sindh Sindh leads rest of the provinces in assassinations by a wide margin, reporting 4,182 assassinations causing 6,357 casualties. Both casualty figures are much higher than the larger province Punjab. In per capita terms, Sindh has the largest concentration of assassination, even taking into account the recent trend of drone strikes in FATA. Strikingly, these assassinations as well as other kinds of political violence in Sindh are heavily concentrated in Karachi. Of all the violent incidents in Sindh 63% of them took place in Karachi that includes 70% of assassinations, and 66% of terrorist attacks. Incidents in Karachi are substantially more deadly than in the rest of Sindh; 93% of the casualties in Sindh take place in Karachi. This ethnically-diverse, mega industrial city has long been a centre of contestation among political groups maintaining militant wings. Ethnic violence in Karachi, moreover, often creates cycles of reactive violence by political parties and Sindhi nationalist groups. Conclusions (cid:120) Political violence has been part of the political culture of Punjab and Sindh for decades now. There has not been a fundamental change in the patterns of political violence in the core population centers of Pakistan. (cid:120) Riots/demonstrations are far more prevalent phenomenon in Punjab and Sindh than in other two provinces and FATA in absolute terms, but on a per- capita basis the rates of violence are similar. (cid:120) The recent increase in violence in FATA, KPK, and somewhat in Balochistan are uncharacteristic of their historical patterns. For the first 15 years of our data collection 1989-2004/5, these regions were no more violent than other parts of Pakistan. (cid:120) The clustering of violence varies tremendously across Pakistan. In Sindh, the vast majority of incidents take place in Karachi, there is little reported violence in the interior/rural parts of the province. In contrast, violence in Punjab appears to be much more scattered. Policy implications 1. It will be useful to study trends in types of violence, and when and where they have taken place to have a nuanced understanding of this challenge. As we have shown in the big trends, we cannot paint the whole country either black or white, but rather will have to look at it more carefully by asking ourselves two questions; why at some periods some regions have been more peaceful than at other times, and why suddenly some pattern of violent political activity began to take shape in some places that had been stable and peaceful for decades. Informed by this type of empirical research, the Pakistan state and foreign states may formulate a focused outlook on political violence and develop appropriate strategies to deal with each type of violence in different regions of the country. 2. There is no clear macro-level relationship between political violence and economic growth and development in Pakistan. Establishing any co-relations between economic growth and violence requires further study. 3. Going by the scale of violence and the years when surges took place, Pakistan doesn’t represent as chaotic a situation as it appears to generally have in the popular media here and abroad. There are many factors that have contributed to the troubled of image of Pakistan; political violence has added a bit, and it is just one among many. Table 1. Population and Mean Annual Violence by Province, 1988-2010 Balochista Punjab Sindh KPK FATA n Population 75403 31074 18110 6743 3282 (1,000s) Assassinations 213 276 58 39 35 (Casualties/1,000) Militant Attacks 61 25 176 82 234 (Casualties/1,000) Terrorist Attacks 368 266 263 149 113 (Casualties/1,000) Riots/Demonstrations 395 404 95 83 128 (Casualties/1,000) State-Initiated 23 40 176 41 430 (Casualties/1,000) Table 2. Political Violence in Punjab 1988-2005 2006-2010 Incidents 320 302 Assassinations Casualties 993 1536 Ratio 3.1 5.1 Incidents 139 105 Militant Attacks Casualties 217 199 Ratio 1.6 1.9 Incidents 15 12 Terrorist Attacks Casualties 21 207 Ratio 1.4 17.3 Incidents 40 34 Riots/Demonstrations Casualties 290 651 Ratio 7.2 19.0 Incidents 91 122 State-Initiated Casualties 399 381 Ratio 4.4 3.1 Table 3. Overall Summary Statistics for Violence, 1988-2010 Killed Injured Variable Incidents Mean / S.D. / Mean / S.D. / Total Total Event Event Event Event Panel A: All Pakistan, 1988-2010 All Incidents 27,555 44,601 1.63 4.85 60,190 2.21 8.92 Assassinations 8,624 11,201 1.30 1.15 3,125 0.36 1.52 State-Initiated 1,881 11,482 6.14 11.2 4,913 2.70 7.88 Militant Attacks 3,446 6,534 1.90 4.55 9,795 2.86 7.48 Riots/Demonstrations 6,249 5,648 0.91 4.29 20,102 3.26 10.7 Terrorism 5,235 6,974 1.33 5.15 19,642 3.77 13.9 Panel B: Balochistan, 1988-2010 All Incidents 2,779 3,356 1.21 4.3 5,831 2.11 7.16 Assassinations 404 631 1.56 1.19 271 0.67 1.55 State-Initiated 83 508 6.12 17.5 393 4.91 13.3 Militant Attacks 534 629 1.60 3.05 1,307 3.46 6.05 Riots/Demonstrations 382 609 1.19 3.46 1,244 2.36 8.15 Terrorism 1,294 910 0.70 3.14 2,507 1.94 7.63 Panel C: FATA, 1988-2010 All Incidents 3,130 14,457 4.64 9.80 9,594 3.12 9.49 Assassinations 349 631 1.81 2.04 182 0.52 1.62 State-Initiated 1 854 7,785 8.58 11.4 2,913 3.55 9.28 Militant Attacks 882 2,854 3.24 6.47 2,632 3.00 5.25 Riots/Demonstrations 293 1,860 6.44 17.5 1,338 4.74 11.2 Terrorism 544 930 1.71 5.98 1,667 3.09 12.9 Panel D: Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, 1988-2010 All Incidents 3,405 8,697 2.56 6.96 9,416 2.79 9.76 Assassinations 602 985 1.64 1.76 311 0.52 1.52 State-Initiated 520 3,344 6.48 12.6 789 1.55 4.33 Militant Attacks 592 1,599 2.71 5.30 2,543 4.32 10.5 Riots/Demonstrations 486 595 1.23 2.52 1,529 3.19 10.6 Terrorism 991 1,761 1.78 6.93 4,056 4.12 13.6 Panel E: Punjab, 1988-2010 All Incidents 7,268 7,378 1.02 2.50 17,670 2.45 11.4 Assassinations 3,023 3,772 1.25 1.1 1,066 0.35 1.62 State-Initiated 211 87 0.41 1.06 445 2.17 7.95 Militant Attacks 326 359 1.1 3.47 1,019 3.14 11.6 Riots/Demonstrations 2,252 907 0.40 1.09 7,931 3.56 13.1 Terrorism 898 1,779 1.98 5.98 6,596 7.37 22.5 Panel F: Sindh, 1988-2010 All Incidents 9,650 9,546 0.99 2.04 14,778 1.54 6.73 Assassinations 4,182 5,095 1.22 0.87 1,262 0.30 1.44 State-Initiated 207 242 1.17 1.77 306 1.51 3.65 Militant Attacks 209 211 1.01 2.15 366 1.76 7.10 Riots/Demonstrations 2,752 1,587 0.58 1.57 7,530 2.77 8.73 Terrorism 1,428 1,532 1.07 4.22 4,534 3.16 11.4 Note: Source for all data is a review of the Dawn, the largest circulation English-language daily newspaper in Pakistan, for every day from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2010. Totals for “All of Pakistan” include incidents in Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK, and incidents that cannot be geo-located. Category of “All Incidents” includes figures for hard-to-categorize events that do not fit in the other categories. 1 Includes 183 drone attacks. Figure 1. Sectarian Violence in Punjab Figure 2. Trends Across Time Note: Source for all data is a review the Dawn, the largest circulation English-language daily newspaper in Pakistan, for every day from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2010. Coding rules for categories found in codebook in Appendix B.