C A L O N L I T I C A T I P O N I U M M N C O A I T R I B I N m p a i g n i n g P oalln2id0n 1gM,5 eCGd iae an ie rn atl h Eel e c ti o n EdDiRoteSmodigi mnbeiryo cn M WAotrriktiinmng,s oorne, Political Communication in Britain Dominic Wring • Roger Mortimore • Simon Atkinson Editors Political Communication in Britain Polling, Campaigning and Media in the 2015 General Election Editors Dominic Wring Simon Atkinson Loughborough University Ipsos MORI United Kingdom London, United Kingdom Roger Mortimore Ipsos MORI London, United Kingdom ISBN 978-3-319-40933-7 ISBN 978-3-319-40934-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40934-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016956373 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Cover illustration: David Cameron campaigning in the Cornish marginal seat of St Ives holding a copy of the ‘I’m afraid there is no money’ memo written by a former Labour Treasury minister government. The Prime Minister frequently used the letter in the final stage of the General Election to question his opponent’s economic record in government.  Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland The registered company address: is Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland P a reface and cknowledgements The arithmetic relating to the UK electoral system proved crucial to deter- mining the result of the 2015 General Election. In previous contests, the party coming first had done so by a margin comfortable enough to govern on its own. This changed in 2010 with the formation of the Coalition after the Conservatives had failed to win an overall majority. Approaching this election, and with successive polls showing a very close race with no single party in a clear lead, there was widespread anticipation of another hung parliament being returned. Yet the Conservatives’ 2015 victory was achieved by the margin of votes necessary to enable them to take office on their own, albeit with a relatively small majority. This unexpected result provided a dramatic conclusion to what had been a protracted campaign. The surprise outcome led to intense debate over what had happened among various commentators who had spent the previous weeks speculat- ing over the potential make-up of another coalition government. This book provides a contribution to understanding what happened in the 2015 General Election and does so from the perspectives of those who played leading roles in the campaign and in the reporting and polling of the race. It also offers comment and analysis from researchers on vari- ous other important aspects of the election, including the leader debates and the contribution of social media. The editors are very grateful to all the contributors for their prompt and always courteous responses to our requests. We would like to sincerely thank them all for giving us their insights into a campaign that has threatened to be overshadowed by its largely unanticipated outcome. Some chapters provide invaluable on-the- record accounts of what happened and in certain cases take us behind the v vi PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS scenes. Together, these and the other contributions offer reflective com- ments and analysis on several of the least as well as most discussed aspects of the campaign. This was the aim of the Political Communication series when it was launched after the 1979 General Election and we are proud to continue in this tradition. The editors are very grateful to various other people for their help. We would particularly like to thank Bob Worcester, who co-founded and co- edited the first volume in the series, for kindly providing the Foreword for this ninth instalment. Steve Rothberg and Anna Theaker of Loughborough University Enterprise Office together with Charles Pattie of the UK Political Studies Association’s Elections, Public Opinion and Parties group provided support that helped to make this book possible; a post-election conference held in Summer 2015 provided the springboard for many of the chapters here. We are also grateful to Chin Guan Goh and his col- leagues at the Emmanuel Centre London as well as Danielle Bailey, James Ludley, Kate Mattocks and Jamie Ralph of the Political Studies Association for their input. We would like to express our gratitude to Jo Brewin, Jon Crannage, Suzanne Dexter, Charlotte Hester, Liz Fowkes, Graham Herring, Dane Vincent, Denise Wade and Judy Wing of Loughborough University. Michele Chester, Fiona O’Connor, Rahel Mebrahtu and Duncan Struthers of Ipsos MORI provided invaluable support. Thanks are also due to: Jay Blumler, Martin Boon, Jo Coburn, Stephen Coleman, Tahlia Dolan, Adam Drummond, Tom Edmonds, James Endersby, Geoff Evans, Ed Fieldhouse, Joanna Geary, Jane Green, Michael Jermey, Chris Luffingham, Damian Lyons Lowe, Jane Martinson, Martin Moore and Mike Smithson. Jo Sheriff and Tilly Wring have been of great help to the project. Sara Crowley Vigneau, Ambra Finotello and Imogen Gordon Clark of Palgrave Macmillan have been patient and very helpful from the beginning of this process. Finally, we would also like to repay our gratitude to our anonymous reviewers for their helpful advice and encouragement. We hope this volume proves a fitting addition to the series. DW, RM and SA c ontents 1 Foreword 1 Robert Worcester 2 Introduction 9 Dominic Wring, Roger Mortimore, and Simon Atkinson Part I Polling 17 3 The Polls and Their Context 19 Roger Mortimore and Anthony Wells 4 The Performance of the Polls 39 Nick Moon 5 The Election in Scotland 49 Mark Diffley vii viii CONTENTS 6 Outside the Marginals: Constituency and Regional Polling at the 2015 General Elections 63 Tom Mludzinski and Katharine Peacock 7 What the Polls Polled: Towards a Political Economy of British Election Polls 77 Murray Goot Part II Campaigns 113 8 An Interview with Jeremy Sinclair 115 Jeremy Sinclair and Simon Atkinson 9 The Conservative Campaign 123 Andrew Cooper 10 The Labour Campaign 133 Greg Cook 11 The SNP Campaign 145 Kevin Pringle 12 Chill Wind: The Liberal Democrat Campaign 151 Olly Grender 13 A Polite Insurgency: The UKIP Campaign 161 Gawain Towler 14 For the Common Good: The Green Party’s 2015 General Election Campaign 169 Judy Maciejowska CONTENTS ix Part III Media 181 15 The Media Campaign: The Issues and Personalities Who Defined the Election 183 David Deacon, John Downey, James Stanyer, and Dominic Wring Broadcasting 197 16 The Broadcast Journalist’s View 199 Michael Crick 17 Regulating Broadcasting During the 2015 General Election: The Ofcom Perspective 209 Adam Baxter 18 Election Debates: The Less Than Smooth Path to TV’s Big Campaign Events 221 Ric Bailey 19 The Election Debates in 2015: The View from the Living Room 235 Claire Emes and Josh Keith Print and Social Media 247 20 Reporting the Election 249 Joe Murphy 21 Pink Buses, Leaders’ Wives and “The Most Dangerous Woman in Britain”: Women, the Press and Politics in the 2015 Election 259 Emily Harmer x CONTENTS 22 Othering Ed: Newspaper Coverage of Miliband and the Election 273 Ivor Gaber 23 The Social Media Campaign: Mobilisation and Persuasion 293 Darren G. Lilleker and Daniel Jackson 24 #GE2015: The General Election on Twitter 315 Steven Ginnis and Carl Miller Index 329