Praise for Plan B “Lester Brown tells us how to build a more just world and save the planet...in a practical, straightforward way. We should all heed his advice.” —President Bill Clinton “...a far-reaching thinker.” —U.S. News & World Report “It’s exciting...a masterpiece!” —Ted Turner “In tackling a host of pressing issues in a single book, Plan B 2.0 makes for an eye-opening read.” —Times Higher Education Supplement “Lester Brown should receive a Nobel Peace Prize for his new book.” —The Herald Mexico “A great book which should wake up humankind!” —Klaus Schwab, World Economic Forum “Lester R. Brown, one of the world’s preeminent eco- economists...has a solution for dealing with the threat...Plans must be periodically revised and refined, which Brown has done with insight and foresight in this volume.” —Ode “...a highly readable and authoritative account of the problems we face from global warming to shrinking water resources, fish- eries, forests, etc. The picture is very frightening. But the book also provides a way forward.” —Clare Short, British Member of Parliament “Lester R. Brown gives concise, but very informative, sum- maries of what he regards as the key issues facing civilization as continued... a consequence of the stress we put on our environment....a valuable contribution to the ongoing debate.” —The Ecologist “An enormous achievement—a comprehensive guide to what’s going wrong with earth’s life support system and how to fix it.” —Grinning Planet P B 3.0 LAN “Plan B has three parts: restructuring the global economy, work- ing to eradicate poverty and reversing environmental destruc- tion. Tall orders, to be sure: but Plan B is here thoughtfully laid out to achieve the seeming impossible—and with an under- standing of world trends and cultures too.” —The Midwest Book Review “The best big-picture summary of our environmental situation— both the problems and the solutions—I’ve ever read.” —Grist “Lester R. Brown… offers an attractive 21st-century alternative to the unacceptable business-as-usual path that we have been following with regard to the environment (Plan A), which is leading us to ‘economic decline and collapse.’” — Thomas F. Malone, American Scientist “Brown’s overall action plan is both comprehensive and compelling.” —Caroline Lucas, Resurgence “This book is an excellent update to the 2003 edition of Plan B and a valuable resource for understanding the challenges facing all people on Earth. Highly recommended.” —S.J. Martin, Choice “A great book about ways to improve the environment and sustain economic progress.” —St. Petersburg Times OTHER NORTON BOOKS BY LESTER R. BROWN Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Beyond Malthus Under Stress and a with Gary Gardner P B 3.0 LAN Civilization in Trouble and Brian Halweil Outgrowing the Earth: The Food The World Watch Reader 1998 Security Challenge in an Age editor with Ed Ayres Mobilizing to Save Civilization of Falling Water Tables and Tough Choices Rising Temperatures Who Will Feed China? Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Full House Civilization in Trouble with Hal Kane The Earth Policy Reader Saving the Planet with Janet Larsen and with Christopher Flavin Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts and Sandra Postel Lester R. Brown Eco-Economy: Building an Building a Sustainable Society Economy for the Earth Running on Empty State of the World 1984 with Colin Norman through2001 and Christopher Flavin annual, with others The Twenty-Ninth Day Vital Signs 1992 through2001 In the Human Interest annual, with others Earth Policy Institute®is a nonprofit environmental research organization EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE providing a plan for building a sustainable future. It seeks to reach a global constituency through the media and the Internet. In addition to the Plan B series, the Institute issues four-page Plan B Updatesthat assess progress in implementing Plan B. All of these can be downloaded at no charge from the EPI Web site. W W NORTON & COMPANY • • Web site: www.earthpolicy.org NEW YORK LONDON Contents Preface xi 1. Entering a New World 3 A Massive Market Failure 6 Environment and Civilization 9 China: Why the Existing Economic Model Will Fail 13 Mounting Stresses, Failing States 14 Copyright © 2008 by Earth Policy Institute A Civilizational Tipping Point 18 All rights reserved Plan B—A Plan of Hope 20 Printed in the United States of America First Edition I. A CIVILIZATION IN TROUBLE The EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE trademark is registered in the U.S. Patent and 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security 27 Trademark Office. The Coming Decline of Oil 29 The views expressed are those ofthe author and do not necessarily represent those The Oil Intensity of Food 34 of the Earth Policy Institute; of its directors, officers, or staff; or of any funders. The Changing Food Prospect 36 Cars and People Compete for Crops 38 The text of this book is composed in Sabon. Composition by Elizabeth Doherty; The World Beyond Peak Oil 42 manufacturing by the Maple-Vail Book Manufacturing Group. Food Insecurity and Failing States 45 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas 48 ISBN 978-0-393-06589-3 (cloth) 978-0-393-33087-8 (pbk) Rising Temperature and Its Effects 49 W. W. Norton &Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, The Crop Yield Effect 51 New York, N.Y. 10110 Reservoirs in the Sky 53 www.wwnorton.com Melting Ice and Rising Seas 56 More-Destructive Storms 61 W. W. Norton &Company, Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, Cutting Carbon 80 Percent by 2020 64 London W1T 3QT 4. Emerging Water Shortages 68 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 Water Tables Falling 69 Rivers Running Dry 75 Lakes Disappearing 77 This book is printed on recycled paper. Farmers Losing to Cities 78 viii Contents Contents ix Scarcity Crossing National Borders 81 10.Designing Cities for People 192 Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses 82 The Ecology of Cities 194 Redesigning Urban Transport 196 5. Natural Systems Under Stress 85 Reducing Urban Water Use 202 Shrinking Forests: The Many Costs 86 Farming in the City 205 Losing Soil 90 Upgrading Squatter Settlements 208 From Grassland to Desert 93 Cities for People 209 Advancing Deserts 94 Collapsing Fisheries 97 11.Raising Energy Efficiency 213 Disappearing Plants and Animals 101 Banning the Bulb 215 Energy-Efficient Appliances 218 6. Early Signs of Decline 106 More-Efficient Buildings 221 Our Socially Divided World 107 Restructuring the Transport System 225 Health Challenge Growing 110 A New Materials Economy 228 Throwaway Economy in Trouble 115 The Energy Savings Potential 235 Population and Resource Conflicts 117 Environmental Refugees on the Rise 121 12.Turning to Renewable Energy 237 Mounting Stresses, Failing States 123 Harnessing the Wind 239 Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars 243 II. THE RESPONSE—PLAN B Solar Cells and Collectors 246 Energy from the Earth 252 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population 131 Plant-Based Sources of Energy 255 Universal Basic Education 133 River, Tidal, and Wave Power 258 Stabilizing Population 136 The World Energy Economy of 2020 259 Better Health for All 140 Curbing the HIV Epidemic 144 III. AN EXCITING NEW OPTION Reducing Farm Subsidies and Debt 146 A Poverty Eradication Budget 149 13.The Great Mobilization 265 Shifting Taxes and Subsidies 267 8. Restoring the Earth 152 Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures 273 Protecting and Restoring Forests 153 A Response to Failing States 276 Conserving and Rebuilding Soils 158 A Wartime Mobilization 279 Regenerating Fisheries 162 Mobilizing to Save Civilization 280 Protecting Plant and Animal Diversity 164 What You and I Can Do 285 Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon 165 The Earth Restoration Budget 169 Notes 289 Index 373 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well 175 Acknowledgements 393 Rethinking Land Productivity 176 Raising Water Productivity 179 About the Author 399 Producing Protein More Efficiently 183 Moving Down the Food Chain 188 Action on Many Fronts 189 Preface When Elizabeth Kolbert was interviewing energy analyst Amory Lovins for a profile piece in the New Yorker, she asked him about thinking outside the box. Lovins responded, “There is no box.” There is no box. That is the spirit embodied in Plan B. Perhaps the most revealing difference between Plan B 2.0and Plan B 3.0 is the change of the subtitle from “Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble” to simply “Mobiliz- ing to Save Civilization.” The new subtitle better reflects both the scale of the challenge we face and the wartime speed of the response it calls for. Our world is changing fast. When Plan B 2.0 went to press two years ago, the data on ice melting were worrying. Now they are scary. Two years ago, we knew there were a number of failing states. Now we know that number is increasing each year. Failing states are an early sign of a failing civilization. Two years ago there was early evidence that the potential for expanding oil production was much less than officially projected. Now, we know that peak oil could be on our doorstep. Two years ago oil was $50 a barrel. As of this writing in late 2007, it is over $90 a barrel. In Plan B 2.0, we speculated that if we continued to build ethanol distilleries to convert grain into fuel for cars, the price of grain would move up toward its oil-equivalent value. Now that the United States has enough distilleries to convert one fifth of its grain crop into fuel for cars, this is exactly what is hap- xii Preface Preface xiii pening. Corn prices have nearly doubled. Wheat prices have the earth’s ecosystems. At the heart of the climate-stabilizing more than doubled. initiative is a detailed plan to cut carbon dioxide emissions 80 Two years ago, we reported that in five of the last six years percent by 2020 in order to hold the global temperature rise to world grain production had fallen short of consumption. Now, a minimum. The climate initiative has three components: rais- it has done so in seven of the past eight years, and world grain ing energy efficiency, developing renewable sources of energy, stocks are dropping toward all-time lows. and expanding the earth’s forest cover both by banning defor- As the backlog of unresolved problems grows, including con- estation and by planting billions of trees to sequester carbon. tinuing rapid population growth, spreading water shortages, We are in a race between tipping points in nature and our shrinking forests, eroding soils, and grasslands turning to desert, political systems. Can we phase out coal-fired power plants weaker governments are breaking down under the mounting before the melting of the Greenland ice sheet becomes irre- stress. If we cannot reverse the trends that are driving states to versible? Can we gather the political will to halt deforestation in failure, we will not be able to stop the growth in their numbers. the Amazon before its growing vulnerability to fire takes it to Some of the newly emerging trends—such as the coming the point of no return? Can we help countries stabilize popula- decline in world oil production, the new stresses from global tion before they become failing states? warming, and rising food prices—could push even some of the The United States appears to be approaching a political tip- stronger states to the breaking point. ping point as opposition builds to the construction of new coal- On the economic front, China has now overtaken the United fired power plants. A fast-spreading nationwide campaign has States in consumption of most basic resources. By 2030, when its led several states, including California, Texas, Florida, Kansas, income per person is projected to match that in the United States and Minnesota, to refuse construction permits or otherwise today, China will be consuming twice as much paper as the restrict construction. world currently produces. If in 2030 the country’s 1.46 billion With this movement gaining momentum, it may be only a people have three cars for every four people, U.S. style, China matter of time before it expands to embrace the phasing out of will have 1.1 billion cars. And it will be consuming 98 million existing coal-fired power plants. The question is, Will this hap- barrels of oil per day, well above current world production. pen soon enough to avoid dangerous climate change? The western economic model—the fossil-fuel-based, auto- In Plan B 2.0, we talked about the enormous potential of mobile-centered, throwaway economy—is not going to work for renewable sources of energy, especially wind power. Since then China. If it doesn’t work for China, it won’t work for India or we’ve seen proposed projects to generate electricity from such the other 3 billion people in developing countries who are also resources on a scale never seen with fossil fuel power plants. For dreaming the American dream. And in an increasingly integrat- example, the state of Texas is coordinating a vast expansion of ed world economy, where we all depend on the same grain, oil, wind farms that will yield up to 23,000 megawatts of new elec- and steel, it will not work for industrial countries either. trical generating capacity, an amount equal to 23 coal-fired The challenge for our generation is to build a new economy, power plants. one that is powered largely by renewable sources of energy, that Two years ago, the notion of plug-in gas-electric hybrid cars has a highly diversified transport system, and that reuses and was little more than a concept. Today five leading automobile recycles everything. And to do it with unprecedented speed. manufacturers are moving to market with plug-in hybrids, with Continuing with business as usual (Plan A), which is destroying the first ones expected in 2010. the economy’s eco-supports and setting the stage for dangerous We have the technologies to restructure the world energy climate change, is no longer a viable option. It is time for Plan B. economy and stabilize climate. The challenge now is to build There are four overriding goals in Plan B 3.0: stabilizing cli- the political will to do so. Saving civilization is not a spectator mate, stabilizing population, eradicating poverty, and restoring sport. Each of us has a leading role to play. xiv Preface When we published the original Plan B four years ago, we noticed that some 600 individuals ordered a copy of the book and then came back and ordered 5, 10, 20 or 50 copies for dis- tribution to friends, colleagues, and political and opinion lead- ers. With Plan B 2.0, this number jumped to more than 1,500 individuals and organizations that were bulk buying and dis- tributing the book. We call these distributors our Plan B Team. Ted Turner, who distributed some 3,600 copies to heads of state, cabinet mem- P B 3.0 LAN bers, Fortune 500 CEOs, the U.S. Congress, and the world’s 672 other billionaires, was designated Plan B team captain. This book can be downloaded without charge from our Web site. Permission for reprinting or excerpting portions of the manuscript can be obtained from Reah Janise Kauffman at Earth Policy Institute. And finally, there is not anything sacred about Plan B. It is our best effort to lay out an alternative to business as usual, one that we hope will help save our civilization. If anyone can come up with a better plan, we will welcome it. The world needs the best plan possible. Lester R. Brown October 2007 Earth Policy Institute 1350 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 403 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: (202) 496-9290 Fax: (202) 496-9325 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.earthpolicy.org For additional information on the topics discussed in this book, see www.earthpolicy.org. 1 Entering A New World During the late summer of 2007, the news of accelerating ice melting arrived at a frenetic pace. In early September, the Guardianin London reported, “The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer, and levels of sea ice in the region now stand at a record low.” Experts were “stunned” by the loss of ice, as an area almost twice the size of Britain dis- appeared in a single week.1 Mark Serreze, a veteran Arctic specialist with the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “It’s amazing. If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate.”2 A few days later, the Guardian, reporting from a symposium in Ilulissat, Greenland, said that the Greenland ice cap is melt- ing so fast that it is triggering minor earthquakes as pieces of ice weighing several billion tons each break off the ice sheet and slide into the sea. Robert Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, reported that “we have seen a massive acceleration of the speed with which these glaciers are moving into the sea. The ice is moving at 2 meters an hour on a front 5 kilometers [3 miles] long and 1,500 meters deep.”3 4 PLANB3.0 Entering A New World 5 Corell said that when flying over the Ilulissat glacier he had increases bring crop-withering heat waves, more-destructive “seen gigantic holes (moulins) in it through which swirling storms, more-intense droughts, more forest fires, and, of masses of melt water were falling.” This melt water lubricates course, ice melting. the surface between the glacier and the land below, causing the We can see from ice melting alone that our civilization is in glacier to flow faster into the sea. Veli Kallio, a Finnish scientist trouble. If the Greenland ice sheet melts, sea level rises 7 meters who had been analyzing the earthquakes, said they were new to (23 feet). If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet breaks up, and many northwest Greenland and showed the potential for the entire ice scientists think it could go before Greenland, it adds another 5 sheet to break up and collapse.4 meters to the increase, for a total of 12 meters (39 feet).9 Corell noted that the projected rise in sea level during this The International Institute for Environment and Develop- century of 18–59 centimeters (7–23 inches) by the Intergovern- ment has studied the likely effects of a 10-meter (33-foot) rise. mental Panel on Climate Change was based on data that were Their 2007 study projected more than 600 million refugees from two years old. He said that some scientists now believe the rising seas. More people than currently live in the United States increase could be as much as 2 meters.5 and Western Europe combined would be forced to migrate In late August, a Reuters story began with “a thaw of inland to escape the rising waters.10 Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel Now that we are belatedly recognizing these trends and the and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters need to reverse them, time is running out. We are in a race (6 feet) by 2100, a leading expert said.” Chris Rapley, head of between tipping points in the earth’s natural systems and those the British Antarctic Survey said, “The ice is moving faster both in the world’s political systems. Which will tip first? Will we in Greenland and in the Antarctic than the glaciologists had reach the point where the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is believed would happen.”6 irreversible? Or will we decide to phase out coal-fired power Several months earlier, scientists had reported that the Gan- plants fast enough to avoid this wholesale ice melting? gotri glacier, the principal glacier that feeds the Ganges River, is A rise in temperature to the point where the earth’s ice sheets melting at an accelerating rate and could disappear entirely in a and glaciers melt is only one of many environmental tipping matter of decades. The Ganges would become a seasonal river, points needing our attention. While the earth’s temperature is flowing only during the monsoon season.7 rising, water tables are falling on every continent. Here the chal- Glaciers on the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau that feed the Yellow lenge is to raise water use efficiency and stabilize population and Yangtze rivers are melting at 7 percent a year. Yao Tandong, before water shortages become life-threatening.11 one of China’s leading glaciologists, believes that at this rate, Population growth, which contributes to all the problems dis- two thirds of these glaciers could disappear by 2060.8 cussed here, has its own tipping point. Scores of countries have These glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibet-Qinghai developed enough economically to sharply reduce mortality but Plateau feed all the major rivers of Asia, including the Indus, not yet enough to reduce fertility. As a result, they are caught in Ganges, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers. It is the water the demographic trap—a situation where rapid population from these rivers that irrigates the rice and wheat fields in the growth begets poverty and poverty begets rapid population region. growth. In this situation, countries eventually tip one way or the We are crossing natural thresholds that we cannot see and other. They either break out of the cycle or they break down. violating deadlines that we do not recognize. Nature is the time Over the last few decades, the world has accumulated a keeper, but we cannot see the clock. Among the other environ- growing number of unresolved problems, including those just mental trends undermining our future are shrinking forests, mentioned. As the stresses from these unresolved problems expanding deserts, falling water tables, collapsing fisheries, dis- accumulate, weaker governments are beginning to break down, appearing species, and rising temperatures. The temperature leading to what are now commonly referred to as failing states.