STUDIES IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL HISTORY This series, specially commissioned by the Economic History Society, provides a guide to the current interpretations of the key themes of economic and social history in which advances have recently been made or in which there has been significant debate. Originally entitled 'Studies in Economic History', in 1974 the series had its scope extended to include topics in social history, and the new series title, 'Studies in Economic and Social History', signalises this development. The series gives readers access to the best work done, helps them to draw their own conclusions in major fields of study, and by means of the critical bibliography in each book guides them in the selection of further reading. The aim is to provide a spring board to further work rather than a set of pre-packaged conclu sions or short-cuts. ECONOMIC HISTORY SOCIETY The Economic History Society, which numbers over 3000 mem bers, publishes the Economic History Review four times a year (free to members) and holds an annual conference. Enquiries about membership should be addressed to the Assistant Secretary, Economic History Society, Peterhouse, Cambridge. Full-time students may join at special rates. STUDIES IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL HISTORY Edited for the Economic History Society by M. W. Flinn PUBLISHED B. W. E. Alford Depression and Recovery? British Economic Growth, 1918-1939 S. D. Chapman The Cotton Industry in the Industrial Revolution R. A. Church The Great Victorian Boom, 1850-1873 D. C. Coleman Industry in Tudor and Stuart England P. L. Cottrell British Overseas Investment in the Nineteenth Century Ralph Davis English Overseas Trade, 1500-1700 M. E. Falkus The Industrialisation of Russia, 1700-1914 M. W. Flinn British Population Growth, 1700-1850 John Hatcher Plague, Population and the English Economy, 1348-1530 J. R. Hay The Origins of the Liberal Welfare Reforms, 1906-1914 R. H. Hilton The Decline of Serfdom in Medieval England E. L. Jones The Development of English Agriculture, 1815-1873 John Lovell British Trade Unions, 1875-1933 J. D. Marshall The Old Poor Law, 1795-1834 Alan S. Milward The Economic Effects of the Two World Wars on Britain G. E. Mingay Enclosure and the Small Farmer in the Age of the Industrial Revolution A. E. Musson British Trade Unions, 1800-1875 R. B. Outhwaite Inflation in Tudor and Early Stuart England P. L. Payne British Entrepreneurship in the Nineteenth Century Michael E. Rose The Relief of Poverty, 1834-1914 S. B. Saul The Myth of the Great Depression, 1873-1896 Arthur J. Taylor Laissez-faire and State Intervention in Nineteenth-century Britain Peter Temin Causal Factors in American Economic Growth in the Nineteenth Century OTHER TITLES ARE IN PREPARATION Plague, Population and the English Economy 1348-1530 Prepared for The Economic History Society by JOHN HATCHER University Lecturer in History and Fellow of Corpus Christi College, Cambridge M © The Economic History Society 1977 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published 1977 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in New York Dublin Melbourne Johannesburg and Madras ISBN 978-0-333-21293-6 ISBN 978-1-349-03149-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-03149-8 Photo typeset by WESTERN PRINTING SERVICES L TO Bristol This book is sold subject to the standard conditions of the Net Book Agreement. The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. Contents Acknowledgements 7 Note on References 7 Editor's Preface 9 1 An Introduction to the Controversy 11 2 Direct Evidence of Population Change 21 (i) Mortality in the Black Death and Subsequent Epidemics 21 (ii) Replacement Rates 26 3 Economic Evidence of Population Change 31 (i) The Later Fourteenth-century Economy 31 (ii) The Fifteenth-century Economy 35 (iii) Wages, Prices and the Supply of Money 47 4 Why was the Population Decline so Protracted? 55 5 Population in Early Tudor England 63 6 Conclusion 6 Notes and References 75 Select Bibliography 81 Index 93 5 Figures 1 Long-term Flows in English Population, 1086-1525 71 2 English Population and the Real Wage-rates of Craftsmen, 1250--1750 71 Tables I Male Generation Replacement Rates Calculated from Inquisitions Post Mortem 27 II Wage-rates, 1301-1540 49 III Wheat Prices, 1301-1540 51 6 Acknowledgements I am indebted to Drs T. H. Hollingsworth, E. Miller and R. S. Schofield for reading a complete draft of the text and making many valuable criticisms; and to Mr A. F. Butcher and Dr R. B. Outhwaite for advice on the passages dealing, respectively, with towns and wages and prices. The faults which remain are, of course, in no respect the responsibility of those who so kindly gave me their advice. Note on References References in the text within square brackets relate to the num bered items in the Select Bibliography, followed, where neces sary, by the page numbers in italics, for example [131: 207]. Other references in the text, numbered consecutively throughout the book, relate to annotations of the text or to sources not given in the Select Bibliography, and are itemised in the Notes and References section. 7 Editor's Preface SO long as the study of economic and social history was confined to a small group at a few universities, its literature was not prolific and its few specialists had no great problem in keeping abreast of the work of their colleagues. Even in the 1930s there were only two journals devoted exclusively to economic history and none at all to social history. But the high quality of the work of the economic historians during the inter-war period and the post war growth in the study of the social sciences sparked off an immense expansion in the study of economic history after the Second World War. There was a great expansion of research and many new journals were launched, some specialising in branches of the subject like transport, business or agricultural history. Most significantly, economic history began to be studied as an aspect of history in its own right in schools. As a consequence, the examining boards began to offer papers in economic history at all levels, while textbooks specifically designed for the school market began to be published. As a specialised discipline, social history is an even more recent arrival in the academic curriculum. Like economic history, it, too, is rapidly generating a range of specialist publications. The importance of much of the recent work in this field and its close relationship with economic history have therefore prompted the Economic History Society to extend the scope of this series - formerly confined to economic history - to embrace themes in social history. For those engaged in research and writing this period of rapid expansion of studies has been an exciting, if rather breathless one. For the larger numbers, however, labouring in the outfield of the schools and colleges of further education, the excitement of the explosion of research has been tempered by frustration arising from its vast quantity and, frequently, its controversial character. Nor, it must be admitted, has the ability or willingness of the academic historians to generalise and summarise marched in step with their enthusiasm for research. 9 The greatest problems of interpretation and generalisation have tended to gather round a handful of principal themes in economic and social history. It is, indeed, a tribute to the sound sense of economic and social historians that they have continued to dedicate their energies, however inconclusively, to the solu tion of these key problems. The results of this activity, however, much of it stored away in a wide range of academic journals, have tended to remain inaccessible to many of those currently interested in the subject. Recognising the need for guidance through the burgeoning and confusing literature that has grown around these basic topics, the Economic History Society hopes in this series of short books to offer some help to students and teachers. The books are intended to serve as guides to current interpretations in major fields of economic and social history in which important advances have recently been made, or in which there has recently been some significant debate. Each book aims to survey recent work, to indicate the full scope of the particular problem as it has been opened up by recent scholarship, and to draw such conclusions as seem warranted, given the present state of knowledge and understanding. The authors will often be at pains to point out where, in their view, because of a lack of information or inadequate research, they believe it is premature to attempt to draw firm conclusions. While authors will not hesitate to review recent and older work critically, the books are not intended to serve as vehicles for their own specialist views: the aim is to provide a balanced summary rather than an exposi tion of the author's own viewpoint. Each book will include a descriptive bibliography. In this way the series aims to give all those interested in economic and social history at a serious level access to recent scholarship in some major fields. Above all, the aim is to help the reader to draw his own conclusions, and to guide him in the selection of further reading as a means to this end, rather than to present him with a set of pre-packaged conclusions. M. W. FLINN University of Edinburgh Editor 10