s p RESULT UPDATE a c d PI INDUSTRIES i M a CSM hits a bump; outlook remains robust i d n I India Equity Research| Midcap Agri PI Industries (PI) reported a below estimate quarter (Revenue/PAT EDELWEISS RATINGS 14%/24% below estimate) driven by sharp miss in the CSM segment due Absolute Rating BUY to deferment of an order. However, domestic segment’s growth at 10% Investment Characteristics Growth surpassed estimate on new product launches. Outlook for this segment has improved even further with more new product launches and management guiding for 18% growth in FY19—among the highest in the MARKET DATA (R: PIIL.BO, B: PI IN) industry. However, factoring the lower margin expectation, we prune CMP : INR 812 FY19/20E EPS 5%/8%. While delivery of the positive outlook remains Target Price : INR 954 crucial, strong growth outlook on both the segments puts PI in a sweet 52‐week range (INR) : 1,035 / 674 spot. We value PI at 25.0x FY20E P/E with revised TP of INR954 (INR1,000 Share in issue (mn) : 137.9 earlier). Maintain ‘BUY’. M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 112 / 1,732 Avg. Daily Vol. BSE/NSE (‘000): 217.6 CSM impacted by order deferment; 18‐20% FY19 growth guidance While management had guided for 10% revenue growth in FY18, we had estimated 8% SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) post the Q3FY18 performance, implying 27% YoY growth in Q4FY18. However, the Current Q3FY18 Q2FY18 decline in the CSM segment came sharply below estimate due to delay in shipments of Promoters * 51.4 51.4 51.5 ~INR700mn. However, management’s outlook for the business still remains positive MF's, FI's & BKs 19.0 19.0 16.5 anchored by enquiries and scale‐up in pipeline. Overall, management is guiding for 18‐ FII's 14.6 14.6 16.5 20% growth in this segment, including the order (INR700mn) from Q4FY18. Others 15.0 15.0 15.4 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) Domestic business clocks strong performance Coming off 3% YoY growth in Q3FY18, domestic revenue grew 10%, akin to peers, in PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Q4FY18. The improvement was also driven by traction in newly launched products— BSE Midcap Stock over Stock five this year. It is looking at four‐five product launches in FY19 as well. While growth Index Index has been flat for FY18, management remains confident of 18‐20% revenue growth in 1 month (4.2) (6.1) (1.8) this segment—among the highest in the domestic agrochemical segment. 3 months (3.5) (6.7) (3.3) 12 months 6.3 (2.4) (8.7) Outlook and valuations: Dual segment growth; maintain ‘BUY’ Given the deferment in revenue from Q4FY18 to FY19, the growth expectation for CSM has still been kept the same. On the lower FY18 revenue, we have also maintained our 18% revenue expectation. However, management is confident of strong growth in the domestic agrochemical segment riding new product launches and is guiding for industry‐leading 18% growth in FY19. Given the traction, we have also adjusted our revenue growth expectation for FY19 higher from 8% to 12%. However, factoring in the lower margin guidance, we cut FY19/20E EPS 8%/5%. We value PI at FY20E target P/E of 25.0x, leading to TP of INR954. We maintain ‘BUY’. Financials (Standalone) (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % change Q3FY18 % change FY18* FY19E* FY20E* Rohan Gupta Net rev. 6,251 6,056 3.2 5,377 16.2 22,771 26,308 30,597 +91 22 4040 7416 [email protected] EBITDA 1,347 1,537 (12.3) 1,048 28.6 4,934 5,857 6,917 Adj. PAT 1,054 1,352 (22.0) 806 30.7 3,675 4,420 5,255 Nihal Mahesh Jham Adj. Dil. EPS (INR 7.7 9.8 (22.0) 5.9 30.7 26.7 32.1 38.1 +91 22 6623 3352 [email protected] Diluted P/E (x) 30.4 25.3 21.3 ROAE (%) 20.7 20.6 20.0 May 16, 2018 * Annual numbers are on consolidated basis Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, E delweiss Securities Limited Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Midcap Agri Q4FY18 conference call: Key highlights Q4FY18/FY18: FY18/Q4FY18 revenue split o CSM: INR15.6bn/INR4.4bn o Domestic: INR8.2bn/INR1.9bn Continued investment in new launches like people and R&D, led to negative operating leverage R&D expense has doubled to INR650mn from INR350mn in FY17 Raw material (RM): RM supply issues from China remain Company had certain RM issues and is planning to backward integrate on certain RM. In the current year, company has developed 6‐7 alternative vendors in India for certain RM which were being imported from China. Company is creating alternative geographical suppliers for majority of its product line 16‐17% of total RM is approximately being sourced from China and this proportion used to be more than 30% earlier. Currently there is an uptrend in RM prices. This situation ends up coming every alternate year. The company does believe that for certain RM’s, the higher prices could be the new normal Domestic: Domestic business model is of partnership, which mainly includes import of technical’s and may be formulated here Company’s plan to manufacture Bispyribac sodium is on track and it is expecting the necessary approvals to come soon Looking at launching 4‐5 products in FY19 Company is looking at 18% growth in FY19E in the domestic segment driven by new products and also on normal monsoon expectations CSM: PI mentioned that the business has been delayed and not lost. The quantum of the business delayed was ~INR700mn. Delay in shipment was because of logistic issue at the company’s end ~70% of revenues come from 30% of molecules Company commissioned 4 molecules in FY18 and is looking at 4 more in FY19E Looking at CSM opportunities in new segments to pick up in the coming years 2 E delweiss Securities Limited PI Industries Company is doing 24 products at commercial stage. Order book is important for early stage products and not mature stage molecules which become annuities Products are done Fall in Order book to revenue conversion trend: o For some products there is much longer visibility/execution timelines o Conversion to revenue is also linked to capacity and new build up The lifetime of a Molecule is on average 20‐30 years When incremental investment is huge, company insists for long term contracts for new molecules Company is looking at 18‐20% growth in FY19E. Capex/Expansion: Looking at commissioning 2 multipurpose plants in Jambusar by December. There are already 3 plants in Jambusar Company has done a capex of INR1.7bn in FY18 Looking at capex of INR2.3‐2.5bn in FY19E and FY20E For its surplus cash balance, company is looking at M&A opportunities. Guidance: Looking at 18‐20% growth in revenues in FY19 and EBITDA margin of ~21%. Looking at 20‐21% tax rate for FY19 and FY20 Expect current margin level to sustain due to expansion the company is undertaking 3 E delweiss Securities Limited Midcap Agri Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY18 Q4FY17 % change Q3FY18 % change FY18 FY19E FY20E Net revenues 6,251 6,056 3.2 5,377 16.2 22,771 26,308 30,597 Raw material 3,227 3,044 6.0 2,821 14.4 11,690 13,887 16,044 Staff costs 683 589 15.9 513 33.3 2,432 2,531 2,939 Other expenses 994 886 12.2 996 (0.2) 3,715 4,033 4,698 Total expenditure 4,904 4,519 8.5 4,330 13.3 17,837 20,451 23,680 EBITDA 1,347 1,537 (12.3) 1,048 28.6 4,934 5,857 6,917 Depreciation 212 185 14.6 211 0.4 830 883 1,003 EBIT 1,135 1,351 (16.0) 836 35.7 4,104 4,974 5,914 Other income 191 (21) NM 161 18.5 603 722 830 Interest 18 31 (40.8) 14 30.5 53 23 ‐ Add: Prior period items Add: Exceptional items Profit before tax 1,307 1,299 0.6 983 32.9 4,653 5,674 6,745 Provision for taxes 253 (53) NM 177 43.1 979 1,254 1,489 Minority interest Associate profit share Profit‐ Discontinued Ops Reported net profit 1,054 1,352 (22.0) 806 30.7 3,675 4,420 5,255 Adjusted Profit 1,054 1,352 (22.0) 806 30.7 3,675 4,420 5,255 Equity capital(FV INR 5) 138 138 138 138 138 138 Diluted shares (mn) 138 138 138 138 138 138 Adjusted Diluted EPS 7.7 9.8 (22.0) 5.9 30.7 26.7 32.1 38.1 Diluted P/E (x) ‐ ‐ ‐ 30.4 25.3 21.3 EV/EBITDA (x) ‐ ‐ ‐ 22.2 17.8 14.6 ROAE (%) ‐ ‐ ‐ 20.7 20.6 20.0 As % of net revenues Raw material 51.6 50.3 52.5 51.3 52.8 52.4 Employee cost 10.9 9.7 9.5 10.7 9.6 9.6 Other expenses 15.9 14.6 18.5 16.3 15.3 15.4 EBITDA 21.5 25.4 19.5 21.7 22.3 22.6 Reported net profit 16.9 22.3 15.0 16.1 16.8 17.2 Change in Estimates FY19E FY20E New Old % change New Old % change Comments Net Revenue 26,308 27,188 (3.2) 30,597 31,169 (1.8) EBITDA 5,857 6,539 (10.4) 6,917 7,507 (7.9) Lower margin guidance due to higher investments in CSM EBITDA Margin 22.3 24.0 22.6 24.1 Adjusted PAT 4,420 4,786 (7.7) 5,255 5,508 (4.6) Net Profit Margin 16.8 17.6 17.2 17.7 Capex 2,000 2,000 0.0 2,000 2,000 0.0 4 E delweiss Securities Limited PI Industries Company Description Incorporated in 1947, PI Industries (erstwhile Pesticides India) focuses on agri‐Input, custom synthesis and polymer compounding with strength of over 1,100 employees. PI currently operates three formulation and two manufacturing facilities as well as five multi‐product plants across Gujarat and Jammu, and one R&D unit in Rajasthan at Udaipur. PI is one of India’s leading players in the agri‐input industry, primarily dealing in agro‐ chemicals, specialty fertilisers, plant nutrients and seeds. The company has exclusive rights with several global corporations for distribution in India, and is constantly evaluating prospects to further expand its product portfolio. The fine chemicals business unit of PI focuses on custom synthesis which entails dealing in custom synthesis and contract manufacturing of chemicals including commercial evaluation of chemical processes, process development, lab and pilot scale up as well as commercial production. The company has a strong product portfolio as a result of exclusive tie‐ups with leading agro‐chemical, pharmaceutical and fine chemical companies around the world. Investment Theme PI is expected to deliver strong revenue and profit CAGR of 11.5% and 20.3%, respectively along‐with robust ROEs of 22.4% over FY16‐19E. It is a preferred partner for global MNCs for custom synthesis on account of its competencies in process research and manufacturing, coupled with its non‐compete and IP driven business model. PI has built up a strong order book of USD1bn to be executed within the next 3‐4 years and Incurred capex of ~INR1.8bn in Jambusar plant. EBITDA margin of the company is likely to expand owing to improving product mix, higher operating leverage and sale of the low margin polymer business. Key Risks Any execution delay in setting up new capacities would impact the Any execution delay in setting up new capacities would impact the growth in the custom synthesis business. Indian agriculture is largely dependent on monsoon hence poor monsoon could be a demand dampener for the agri‐input division. On account of very low liquidity in the stock, it might act very volatile. USD/INR volatility may impact export revenues as well as margins. 5 E delweiss Securities Limited Midcap Agri Financial Statements Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn) Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Macro Net revenue 22,768 22,771 26,308 30,597 GDP(Y‐o‐Y %) 6.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 Materials costs 11,632 11,690 13,887 16,044 Inflation (Avg) 4.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 Gross profit 11,137 11,081 12,422 14,553 Repo rate (exit rate) 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 Employee costs 2,226 2,432 2,531 2,939 USD/INR (Avg) 67.1 64.5 66.0 66.0 Other Expenses 3,378 3,715 4,033 4,698 Company EBITDA 5,533 4,934 5,857 6,917 Raw Material (% net rev) 51.1 51.3 52.8 52.4 Depreciation 730 830 883 1,003 Other exp (% net rev) 14.8 16.3 15.3 15.4 EBIT 4,802 4,104 4,974 5,914 Capex (INR mn) 1,418 1,483 2,000 2,000 Add: Other income 366.15 602.5 722.46 830.42 Net borrowings (INR mn) (952) (2,439) (7,847) (10,962) Less: Interest Expense 72 53 23 ‐ Employee cost (% of rev) 9.8 10.7 9.6 9.6 Profit Before Tax 5,096 4,653 5,674 6,745 Cash conversion cycle 93 112 90 79 Less: Provision for Tax 501 979 1,254 1,489 Agri prod rev gwth (%) 9.0 (5.0) 12.0 12.0 Reported Profit 4,595 3,675 4,420 5,255 Custom synth rev gwth(%) 13.0 3.0 18.0 16.0 Adjusted Profit 4,595 3,675 4,420 5,255 Tax rate as % of PBT 9.8 21.0 22.1 22.1 Shares o /s (mn) 138 138 138 138 Debtor days 66 76 69 60 Adjusted Basic EPS 33.4 26.7 32.1 38.1 Inventory days 130 138 122 117 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 138 138 138 138 Payable days 103 102 101 98 Adjusted Diluted EPS 33.4 26.7 32.1 38.1 Interest Exp (% of Debt) ‐ 1.0 1.0 1.0 Adjusted Cash EPS 34.8 32.5 38.5 45.4 Dep. (% gross block) 6.3 6.4 6.0 6.0 Dividend per share (DPS) 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 Dividend Payout Ratio(%) 12.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Common size metrics Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Cost of goods sold 48.9 48.7 47.2 47.6 EBITDA margins 24.3 21.7 22.3 22.6 EBIT margins 21.1 18.0 18.9 19.3 Net Profit margins 20.2 16.1 16.8 17.2 Growth ratios (%) Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenues 8.6 ‐ 15.5 16.3 EBITDA 28.3 (10.8) 18.7 18.1 PBT 26.5 (8.7) 21.9 18.9 Adjusted Profit 52.0 (20.0) 20.3 18.9 EPS 51.5 (20.0) 20.3 18.9 6 E delweiss Securities Limited PI Industries Balance sheet (INR mn) Cash flow metrics As on 31st March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Share capital 138 138 138 138 Operating cash flow 3,388 2,634 5,475 4,546 Reserves & Surplus 16,134 19,111 23,536 28,797 Investing cash flow (2,351) 813 (1,277) (1,170) Shareholders' funds 16,272 19,248 23,674 28,935 Financing cash flow (534) (1,488) (748) (262) Short term borrowings 369 ‐ ‐ ‐ Net cash Flow 503 1,958 3,449 3,114 Long term borrowings 830 463 ‐ ‐ Capex (1,418) (1,483) (2,000) (2,000) Total Borrowings 1,198 463 ‐ ‐ Dividend paid (593) (551) (620) (689) Long Term Liabilities 399 233 233 233 Def. Tax Liability (net) (198) (267) (535) (802) Profitability and efficiency ratios Sources of funds 17,671 19,677 23,372 28,366 Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Gross Block 12,340 13,700 15,700 17,700 ROAE (%) 32.8 20.7 20.6 20.0 Net Block 9,375 9,906 11,023 12,020 ROACE (%) 33.7 25.3 26.3 25.6 Intangible Assets 264 279 279 279 DebtorsDays 66 76 69 60 CWIP (incl. intangible) 584 691 691 691 Payable Days 103 102 101 98 Total net fixed assets 10,222 10,876 11,993 12,990 Cash Conversion Cycle 93 112 90 79 Non current investments 9 12 12 12 Current Ratio 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.4 Cash and Equivalents 2,151 2,902 7,847 10,962 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.2 0.1 ‐ ‐ Inventories 4,319 4,520 4,756 5,494 Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ Sundry Debtors 4,237 5,268 4,685 5,449 Adjusted Debt/Equity 0.1 ‐ ‐ ‐ Loans & Advances 171 75 75 75 Net Debt/Equity (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) Other Current Assets 1,706 2,345 2,935 3,414 Interest Coverage Ratio 66.6 77.1 214.7 ‐ Current Assets (ex cash) 10,433 12,207 12,451 14,432 Trade payable 2,878 3,687 3,995 4,615 Operating ratios Other Current Liab 2,267 2,633 2,849 2,849 Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Total Current Liab 5,145 6,320 6,844 7,464 Total Asset Turnover 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 Net Curr Assets‐ex cash 5,289 5,887 5,607 6,967 Fixed Asset Turnover 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 Uses of funds 17,671 19,677 23,372 28,366 Equity Turnover 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 BVPS (INR) 118.1 139.7 171.8 210.0 Valuation parameters Free cash flow (INR mn) Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Year to March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 33.4 26.7 32.1 38.1 Reported Profit 4,594 3,676 4,420 5,255 Y‐o‐Y growth (%) 51.5 (20.0) 20.3 18.9 Add: Depreciation 730 830 883 1,003 Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) 34.8 32.5 38.5 45.4 Interest (Net of Tax) 48 36 16 ‐ Diluted P/E (x) 24.4 30.5 25.3 21.3 Others (750) (1,948) (715) (830) P/B (x) 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.9 Less: Changes in WC 1,234 (40) (871) 882 EV / Sales (x) 4.9 4.8 4.0 3.3 Operating cash flow 3,388 2,634 5,475 4,546 EV /EBITDA (x) 20.1 22.2 17.8 14.6 Less: Capex 1,418 1,483 2,000 2,000 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Free Cash Flow 1,970 1,151 3,475 2,546 Peer comparison valuation Market cap Diluted P/E (X) EV / EBITDA (X) ROAE (%) Name (USD mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E PI Industries 1,761 28.2 23.6 20.0 16.3 22.4 22.1 Bayer Cropscience 2,524 30.6 25.0 20.1 16.0 21.2 21.8 Dhanuka Agritech 501 25.2 21.7 16.8 13.6 22.9 23.0 Rallis India 685 24.1 19.5 14.9 12.2 15.7 17.5 UPL 5,539 18.4 15.2 11.5 9.3 23.7 23.8 Median ‐ 25.2 21.7 16.8 13.6 22.4 22.1 AVERAGE ‐ 25.3 21.0 16.7 13.5 21.2 21.6 Source: Edelweiss research 7 E delweiss Securities Limited Midcap Agri Additional Data Directors Data Mr. Narayan K. Seshadri Independent Non‐Executive Chairman Mr. Mayank Singhal Managing Director and CEO Mr. Rajnish Sarna Executive Director Mr. Arvind Singhal Additional Director, Non Independent ‐Non Executiv Mr. Ravi Narain Independent Non‐Executive Director Mrs. Ramni Nirula Independent Non‐Executive Director Dr T.S. Balganesh Additional Director, Independent Non‐Executive Director Mr. Pravin K. Laheri Independent Non‐Executive Director Auditors ‐ B.D. Gargeiya & Co, S.S. Kothari Mehta & Co. *as per last available data Holding – Top10 Perc. Holding Perc. Holding Singhal mayank 23.22 Singhal madhu 15.63 Sighal pooja 6.28 Singhal pooja 6.28 Singhal salil 6.2 Icici prudential ass 5.6 Jackson national ass 5.12 Microsoft corp savin 3.95 Cartica capital ltd 3.5 Sbi funds management 3.41 *as per last available data Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price 30 Oct 2017 Cartica Capital Ltd Sell 4425137 775.02 *as per last available data Insider Trades Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded 01 Sep 2017 Mr. Narayan K Seshadri Sell 215000.00 05 Jun 2017 Mr. Narayan K Seshadri Sell 25000.00 *as per last available data 8 E delweiss Securities Limited PI Industries Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098. Board: (91‐22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected] Aditya Narain Head of Research [email protected] Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Midcap Agri Bayer Cropscience, Dhanuka Agritech, Jain Irrigation, PI Industries, Rallis India, Sharda Cropchem, UPL ` Recent Research Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos 30‐Apr‐18 Rallis Growth takes a beating; 220 Hold India margin in contraction zone; Result Update 30‐Apr‐18 UPL Stable quarter but guidance 730 Buy lowered; Result Update 04‐Apr‐18 Agri New NBS subsidy rates Inputs favourable for the sector; Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expected to Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12‐month period * 1stocks under review Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12‐month period > 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12‐month period Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11 One year price chart 1,100 1,000 900 R) N (I 800 700 600 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 May‐ Jun‐ Jul‐ Aug‐ Sep‐ Oct‐ Nov‐ Dec‐ Jan‐ Feb‐ Mar‐ Apr‐ May‐ PI Industries 9 E delweiss Securities Limited Midcap Agri DISCLAIMER Edelweiss Securities Limited (“ESL” or “Research Entity”) is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository services and related activities. 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