Permaculture Design Course Maya Mountain Research Farm Toledo District, Belize Feb 10-22, 2014 Albert Bates Marisha Auerbach Nicole Foss Christopher & Celeni Nesbitt What This Manual Does This is not a primer of permaculture, like Introduction to Permaculture, Permaculture Two, or Gaia’s Garden; nor is it a complete design course reference, such as Mollison’s Permaculture Design Handbook or Holmgren’s Permaculture. The purpose of this manual is to supplement the teaching of the certification course given by Albert Bates, Marisha Auerbach, Nicole Foss, and Christopher & Celeni Nesbitt at the Maya Mountain Research Farm, in the Toledo District of Belize. The manual provides some graphic designs that cannot be easily produced on chalkboards, photos, and more complete documents, formulas, recipes and references that cannot easily be conveyed in the course of a sixty to ninety minute class. It is a data dump of instructor notes. As a free syllabus for an educational program, this document falls under public interest and fair use exemptions to the International Copyright Convention. Any reproduction of any portion of this manual for commercial use is prohibited. Course Architecture Design of this course is an exercise in permaculture. We combine diverse elements in synergistic configurations to unleash a cultivated ecology. We hope to provide a set, setting, sangha and sufficient time to transfer from our talented and experienced cadre of instructors the concepts, techniques, and inspired vision of permaculture. We seek an interested, talented and inspired cadre of eager students. The relationship of instructor and student should be reciprocal, and much of the course is devoted to hands-on activity that provides both kinesthetic learning and close interactions of the kind that create strong social bonds. We use an immersion pedagogy, eliminating distraction to the greatest extent possible. We also provide time to slip into a deep experience with the ecotope in which we are immersed. The Maya Mountain Research Center is sited up-river from the small town of San Pedro Columbia, in the Toledo District of Belize. It occupies a hillside that was once part of the dense settlement pattern of the Classic Maya Period, more than one thousand years earlier. Under the guidance of its founder, Christopher Nesbitt, MMRF has established fully functional agroforestry, aquaponic, and solar energy demonstrations, while keeping a light footprint in an area of rich biodiversity. Accommodations are rustic by Western standards, but they are consistent with this approach to simple living and respect for nature. The minor discomforts felt by those unaccustomed to this lifestyle can usually be borne for two weeks without complaint. For some, it will provide a sense of rare freedom from the pressures of city life and the industrial world. Evidence The great temptation, and one in which the academic takes total refuge, is to gather more evidence. I mean, do we need any more evidence? Or is it time to cease taking evidence and to start remedial action on the evidence already in? In 1950, it was time to stop taking evidence and start remedial action. But the temptation is always to gather more evidence. Too many people waste their lives gathering evidence. Moreover, as we get more evidence, we see that things are worse than they had appeared to be. — Bill Mollison, The Terrible Time of Day, 1981 Nature Bats Last Guy McPherson Updated frequently, and most recently 24 January 2014. ** Latest additions are flagged with two asterisks on each side. ** American actress Lily Tomlin is credited with the expression, “No December 2013 issue of Journal of Geophysical Research: matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep up.” With Atmospheres, geoengineering may succeed in cooling the Earth, it respect to climate science, my own efforts to stay abreast are blown would also disrupt precipitation patterns around the world. ** As it away every week by new data, models, and assessments. It seems no turns out, the public isn’t impressed, either: Research published in the matter how dire the situation becomes, it only gets worse when I 12 January 2014 issue of Nature Climate Change “reveals that the check the latest reports. overall public evaluation of climate engineering is negative.” The response of politicians, heads of non-governmental Gradual change is not guaranteed, as pointed out by the U.S. organizations, and corporate leaders remains the same. They’re mired National Academy of Sciences in December 2013: “The history of in the dank Swamp of Nothingness. As Hallor Thorgeirsson, a senior climate on the planet — as read in archives such as tree rings, ocean director with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate sediments, and ice cores — is punctuated with large changes that Change, said on 17 September 2013: “We are failing as an occurred rapidly, over the course of decades to as little as a few international community. We are not on track.” These are the people years.” The December 2013 report echoes one from Wood Hole who know about, and presumably could do something about, our Oceanographic Institution more than a decade earlier. ongoing race to disaster (if only to sound the alarm). Tomlin’s line is If you’re too busy to read the evidence presented below, here’s the never more germane than when thinking about their pursuit of a buck bottom line: On a planet 4 C hotter than baseline, all we can prepare at the expense of life on Earth. for is human extinction (from Oliver Tickell’s 2008 synthesis in the Worse than the aforementioned trolls are the media. Fully captured Guardian). Tickell is taking a conservative approach, considering by corporations and the corporate states, the media continue to dance humans have not been present at 3.5 C above baseline (i.e., the around the issue of climate change. Occasionally a forthright piece is beginning of the Industrial Revolution, commonly accepted as 1750). published, but it generally points in the wrong direction, such as According to the World Bank’s 2012 report, “Turn down the heat: suggesting climate scientists and activists be killed (e.g., James why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided” and an informed Delingpole’s 7 April 2013 hate-filled article in the Telegraph). assessment of “BP Energy Outlook 2030” put together by Barry Leading mainstream outlets routinely lie to the public. According to a Saxifrage for the Vancouver Observer, our path leads directly to the 4 report published 11 January 2014, “the BBC has spent tens of C mark. The 19th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework thousands of pounds over six years trying to keep secret an Convention on Climate Change (COP 19), held in November 2013 in extraordinary ‘eco’ conference which has shaped its coverage of Warsaw, Poland, was warned by professor of climatology Mark global warming.” At the 2006 event, green activists and scientists — Maslin: “We are already planning for a 4°C world because that is one of whom believes climate change is a bigger danger than global where we are heading. I do not know of any scientists who do not nuclear war — lectured 28 of the BBC’s most senior executives. believe that.” ** Adding to planetary misery is a paper in the 16 Mainstream scientists minimize the message at every turn. As December 2013 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of we’ve known for years, scientists almost invariably underplay Sciences concluding that 4 C terminates the ability of Earth’s climate impacts. I’m not implying conspiracy among scientists. vegetation to sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. ** Science selects for conservatism. Academia selects for extreme I’m not sure what it means to plan for 4 C (aka extinction). I’m not conservatism. These folks are loathe to risk drawing undue attention impressed that civilized scientists claim to be planning for it, either. to themselves by pointing out there might be a threat to civilization. According to Colin Goldblatt, author of a paper published online in Never mind the near-term threat to our entire species (they couldn’t the 28 July 2013 issue of Nature Geoscience, “The runaway care less about other species). If the truth is dire, they can find greenhouse may be much easier to initiate than previously thought.” another, not-so-dire version. The concept is supported by an article in Furthermore, as pointed out in the 1 August 2013 issue of Science, in the February 2013 issue of Global Environmental Change pointing the near term Earth’s climate will change orders of magnitude faster out that climate-change scientists routinely underestimate impacts than at any time during the last 65 million years. Tack on, without the “by erring on the side of least drama.” large and growing number of self-reinforcing feedback loops we’ve Ever late to the party, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate triggered recently, the 5 C rise in global-average temperature 55 Change (IPCC) admits global warming is irreversible without million years ago during a span of 13 years, and it looks like trouble geoengineering in a report released 27 September 2013. As pointed ahead for the wise ape. This conclusion ignores the long-lasting, out in the 5 December 2013 issue of Earth System Dynamics, known incredibly powerful greenhouse gas discovered 9 December 2013 by strategies for geoengineering are unlikely to succeed (“climate geo- University of Toronto researchers: perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA) engineering cannot simply be used to undo global warming“). is 7,100 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse “Attempts to reverse the impacts of global warming by injecting gas in the atmosphere, and it persists hundreds of years in the reflective particles into the stratosphere could make matters worse,” atmosphere. It also ignores the irreversible nature of climate change: according to research published in the 8 January 2014 issue of Earth’s atmosphere will harbor, at minimum, the current level of Environmental Research Letters. ** Finally, as described in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration for at least the next 1,000 years, as indicated in the 28 January 2009 issue of the Proceedings of Geldof joins the club in a Daily Star article from 6 October 2013. In the National Academy of Sciences. the face of near-term human extinction, most Americans view the Finally, far too late, the New Yorker posits a relevant question on 5 threat as distant and irrelevant, as illustrated by a 22 April 2013 November 2013: Is It Too Late to Prepare for Climate Change? article in the Washington Post based on poll results that echo the Joining the too-little, too-late gang, the Geological Society of London long-held sentiment that elected officials should be focused on the points out on 10 December 2013 that Earth’s climate could be twice industrial economy, not far-away minor nuisances such as climate as sensitive to atmospheric carbon as previously believed. change. All of the above information fails to include the excellent work by Supporters of carbon farming — the nonsensical notion that Tim Garrett, which points out that only complete collapse avoids industrial civilization can be used to overcome a predicament created runaway greenhouse. Garrett reached the conclusion in a paper by industrial civilization — claim all we need to do is fill the desert submitted in 2007 (personal communication) and published online by with nonnative plants to the tune of an area three-quarters the size of Climatic Change in November 2009 (outcry from civilized scientists the United States. And, they say, we’ll be able to lower atmospheric delayed formal publication until February 2011). The paper remains carbon dioxide by a whopping 17.5 ppm in only two decades. Well, largely ignored by the scientific community, having been cited fewer how exciting. At that blistering pace, atmospheric carbon dioxide will than ten times since its publication. be all the way back down to the reasonably safe level of 280 ppm in According to Yvo de Boer, who was executive secretary of the only 140 years, more than a century after humans are extinct from United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2009, climate change. when attempts to reach a deal at a summit in Copenhagen According to the plan presented in the 23 August crumbled with a rift between industrialized and 2013 issue of Scientific American, the nonnative developing nations, “the only way that a 2015 agreement plants, irrigated with increasingly rare fresh water can achieve a 2-degree goal is to shut down the whole pumped by increasingly rare fossil-fuel energy, will global economy.” Politicians finally have caught up with sequester carbon sufficient to overcome Tim Garrett’s excellent paper in Climatic Change. contemporary emissions. Never mind the emissions Writing for the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, resulting from pumping the water, or the John Davies concludes: “The world is probably at the desirability of converting thriving deserts into start of a runaway Greenhouse Event which will end most monocultures, or the notion of maintaining human life on Earth before 2040.” He considers only industrial civilization at the expense of non- atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, not the many civilized humans and non-human species. Instead, self-reinforcing feedback loops described below. Tacking ponder one simple thought: When the nonnative on only one feedback loop, and writing on 28 November plants die, they will emit back into the atmosphere 2013 — methane release from the Arctic Ocean — Sam essentially all the carbon they sequestered. A tiny Carana expects global temperature anomalies up to 20 C 2050 (an bit of the carbon will be stored in the soil. The rest goes into the anomaly is an aberration, or deviation from long-term average). atmosphere as a result of decomposition. Small wonder atmospheric methane can cause such global This essay brings attention to recent projections and positive catastrophe considering its dramatic rise during the last few years, as feedbacks. I presented much of this information at the Bluegrass elucidated by Carana on 5 December 2013 in the figure below. Bioneers conference (Alex Smith at Radio Ecoshock evaluates my On the topic of tipping points, we crossed the Rubicon in 2007 at presentation here). More recently, I presented an updated version on about 0.76 C warming. At this point, according to David Spratt’s the campus of the University of Massachusetts. All information and excellent September 2013 report, “Is Climate Already Dangerous?”, sources are readily confirmed with an online search, and links to not only had Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point, but the Greenland information about feedbacks can be found here. Ice Sheet was not far behind, as the Arctic moves to sea-ice-free Large-scale assessments conditions in summer (the U.S. Navy predicts an ice-free Arctic by • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (late 2007): 1 C by 2100 summer 2016, a year later than expected by the United Kingdom • Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (late 2008): 2 C by 2100 Parliament, which points out that the six lowest September ice • Later in 2008, Hadley Center’s head of climate change predictions extents have occurred in the last six years). Glaciologist Jason Box, Dr. Vicky Pope calls for a worst-case outcome of more than 5 C by an expert on Greenland ice, agrees. Box was quoted in a 5 December 2100. Joe Romm, writing for Grist, claims, “right now even Hadley 2012 article in the Guardian: “In 2012 Greenland crossed a threshold [Centre] understands it [> 5 C] is better described as the ‘business-as- where for the first time we saw complete surface melting at the usual’ case.” highest elevations in what we used to call the dry snow zone. … As • United Nations Environment Programme (mid 2009): 3.5 C by 2100 Greenland crosses the threshold and starts really melting in the upper • Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research (October 2009): 4 C by elevations it really won’t recover from that unless the climate cools 2060 significantly for an extended period of time which doesn’t seem very • Global Carbon Project, Copenhagen Diagnosis (November 2009): 6 likely.” C, 7 C by 2100 If you think we’ll adapt, think again. The rate of evolution trails • United Nations Environment Programme (December 2010): up to 5 C the rate of climate change by a factor of 10,000, according to a paper by 2050 in the August 2013 issue of Ecology Letters. And it’s not as if These assessments fail to account for significant self-reinforcing extinction events haven’t happened on this planet, as explained in the feedback loops (i.e., positive feedbacks, the term that implies the BBC program, The Day the Earth Nearly Died. opposite of its meaning). The IPCC’s vaunted Fifth Assessment will The rate of climate change clearly has gone beyond linear, as continue the trend as it, too, ignores important feedbacks. On a indicated by the presence of the myriad self-reinforcing feedback positive note, major assessments fail to account for economic loops described below, and now threatens our species with extinction collapse. However, due to the four-decade lag between emissions and in the near term. As Australian biologist Frank Fenner said in June temperature rise as well as the feedback loops described below, I 2010: “We’re going to become extinct,” the eminent scientist says. strongly suspect it’s too late for economic collapse to extend the run “Whatever we do now is too late.” Anthropologist Louise Leakey of our species. Indeed, as pointed out by Bruce Melton at Truthout in ponders our near-term demise in her 5 July 2013 assessment at a 26 December 2013 piece featuring climate scientist Wallace Huffington Post and her father Richard joins the fray in this video Broeker: “today we are operating on atmospheric concentrations of from December 2013 (see particularly 1:02:18 – 1:02:56). Canadian greenhouse gases from the 1970s. In the last 29 years we have wildlife biologist Neil Dawe joins the party of near-term extinction in emitted as many greenhouse gases as we emitted in the previous 236 an interview 29 August 2013 and musician-turned-activist Sir Bob years. Because of the great cooling effect of the oceans, we have not THESE ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON REAL LONG TERM yet begun to see the warming that this recent doubling of greenhouse CLIMATE RECORDS, NOT ON MODELS.” gases will bring.” In other words, near-term extinction of humans was already Taking a broad view guaranteed, to the knowledge of Obama and his administration (i.e., Astrophysicists have long believed Earth was near the center of the the Central Intelligence Agency, which runs the United States and habitable zone for humans. Recent research published in the 10 controls presidential power). Even before the dire feedbacks were March 2013 issue of Astrophysical Journal indicates Earth is on the reported by the scientific community, the administration abandoned inner edge of the habitable zone, and lies within 1% of inhabitability climate change as a significant issue because it knew we were done (1.5 million km, or 5 times the distance from Earth to Earth’s moon). as early as 2009. Rather than shoulder the unenviable task of truth- A minor change in Earth’s atmosphere removes human habitat. teller, Obama did as his imperial higher-ups demanded: He lied about Unfortunately, we’ve invoked major changes. collapse, and he lied about climate change. The northern hemisphere is particularly And he still does. susceptible to accelerated warming, as Ah, those were the good ol’ days, back explained in the 8 April 2013 issue of Journal when atmospheric carbon dioxide of Climate. Two days later, a paper in Nature concentrations were below 400 parts per confirmed that summers in the northern million (ppm). We’ll blow through the 400 hemisphere are hotter than they’ve been for ppm mark soon, probably for the first time in 600 years. As pointed out by Sherwood and 3.2 to 5 million years. And, as reported in the Huber in the 25 May 2012 issue of the journal Global and Planetary Change in Proceedings of the National Academy of April 2013, every molecule of atmospheric Sciences and then by James Hansen in his 15 carbon dioxide since 1980 comes from April 2013 paper, humans cannot survive a human emissions. Not to be outdone, wet-bulb temperature of 35 C (95 F). methane levels reached an average mean of As described by the United Nations 1800 parts per billion (ppb) on the morning Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases in of 16 June 2013. Seeps are appearing in 1990, “Beyond 1 degree C may elicit rapid, numerous locations off the eastern coast of unpredictable and non-linear responses that the United States, leading to rapid could lead to extensive ecosystem damage” (link mirrored here). destabilization of methane hydrates (according to the 25 October James Hansen and crew finally caught up to the dire nature of 1 C 2013 issue of Nature). On land, anthropogenic emissions of methane warming 23 years after the U.N. warning, 28 self-reinforcing in the United States have been severely underestimated by the feedback loops too late. Planetary instruments indicate Earth has Environmental Protection (sic) Agency, according to a paper in the warmed about 1 C since the beginning of the industrial revolution. 25 November 2013 issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of However, plants in the vicinity of Concord, Massachusetts — where Sciences. This figure is 1100 ppb higher than pre-industrial peak the instrumental record indicates warming of about 1 C — indicate levels. Methane release tracks closely with temperature rise warming of 2.4 C since the 1840s. throughout Earth history — specifically, Arctic methane release and Whether you believe the plants or the instruments is irrelevant at rapid global temperature rise are interlinked — including a the point. We’ve clearly triggered the types of positive feedbacks the temperature rise up to about 1 C per year over a decade, according to United Nations warned about in 1990. Yet my colleagues and data from ice cores. acquaintances think we can and will work our way out of this horrific Positive feedbacks mess with permaculture (which is not to denigrate permaculture, the 1. Methane hydrates are bubbling out the Arctic Ocean (Science, principles of which are implemented at the mud hut). Reforestation March 2010). As described in a subsequent paper in the June 2010 doesn’t come close to overcoming combustion of fossil fuels, as issue of Geophysical Research Letters, a minor increase in pointed out in the 30 May 2013 issue of Nature Climate Change. temperature would cause the release of upwards of 16,000 metric Furthermore, forested ecosystems do not sequester additional carbon tons of methane each year. According to NASA’s CARVE project, dioxide as it increases in the atmosphere, as disappointingly these plumes were up to 150 kilometers across as of mid-July 2013. explained in the 6 August 2013 issue of New Phytologist. Adding Global-average temperature is expected to rise by more than 4 C by egregious insult to spurting wound, the latest public-education 2030 and 10 C by 2040 based solely on methane release from the initiative in the United States — the Next Generation Science Arctic Ocean, according to Sam Carana’s research (see especially Standards — buries the relationship between combustion of fossil Image 24). Whereas Malcolm Light’s 9 February 2012 forecast of fuels and planetary warming. The misadventures of the corporate extinction of all life on Earth by the middle of this century appears government continue, even as collapse of ecosystems is fully under premature because his conclusion of exponential methane release way. As pointed out in the April 2013 issue of PLoS ONE — too during summer 2011 was based on data subsequently revised and little, too late for many ecosystems — “catastrophic collapses can smoothed by U.S. government agencies, subsequent information — occur without prior warning.” most notably from NASA’s CARVE project — indicates the grave Hopium-addicted greenwashing solutionistas take refuge in the potential for catastrophic release of methane. (I doubt industrial nuclear solution. It’s astonishing what one can conclude when grid- civilization manages to kill all life on Earth, although that clearly is tied electricity is a viewed as a natural right. James Hansen’s the goal.) Catastrophically rapid release of methane in the Arctic is endorsement notwithstanding, nuclear power plants cause, rather than further supported by Nafeez Ahmed’s thorough analysis in the 5 prevent, additional warming of Earth. August 2013 issue of the Guardian as well as Natalia Shakhova’s 29 Let’s ignore the models for a moment and consider only the results July 2013 interview with Nick Breeze (note the look of abject despair of a single briefing to the United Nations Conference of the Parties in at the eight-minute mark). In early November 2013, methane levels Copenhagen (COP15). Regulars in this space will recall COP15 as well in excess of 2,600 ppb were recorded at multiple altitudes in the the climate-change meetings thrown under the bus by the Obama Arctic. Later that same month, Shakhova and colleagues published a administration. A summary of that long-forgotten briefing contains paper in Nature Geoscience suggesting “significant quantities of this statement: “THE LONG-TERM SEA LEVEL THAT methane are escaping the East Siberian Shelf” and indicating that a CORRESPONDS TO CURRENT CO2 CONCENTRATION IS 50-billion-tonne “burst” of methane could warm Earth by 1.3 C. Such ABOUT 23 METERS ABOVE TODAY’S LEVELS, AND THE a burst of methane is “highly possible at any time.” By 15 December TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6 DEGREES C OR MORE HIGHER. 2013, methane bubbling up from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean had sufficient force to prevent sea ice from forming in the area. Nearly two years after his initial, oft-disparaged analysis, Malcolm Light 14. Increased temperature and aridity in the southwestern interior concluded on 22 December 2013, “we have passed the methane of North America facilitates movement of dust from low-elevation hydrate tipping point and are now accelerating into extinction as the deserts to high-elevation snowpack, thus accelerating snowmelt, as methane hydrate ‘Clathrate Gun’ has begun firing volleys of methane reported in the 17 May 2013 issue of Hydrology and Earth System into the Arctic atmosphere.” According to Light’s latest analysis, the Sciences. temperature of Earth’s atmosphere will resemble that of Venus before 15. Floods in Canada are sending pulses of silty water out through 2100. Two weeks later, in an essay stressing near-term human the Mackenzie Delta and into the Beaufort Sea, thus painting brown a extinction, Light concluded: “The Gulf Stream transport rate started wide section of the Arctic Ocean near the Mackenzie Delta brown the methane hydrate (clathrate) gun firing in the Arctic in 2007 when (NASA, June 2013) its energy/year exceeded 10 million times the amount of energy/year 16. Surface meltwater draining through cracks in an ice sheet can necessary to dissociate subsea Arctic methane hydrates.” warm the sheet from the inside, softening the ice and letting it flow Discussion about methane release from the Arctic Ocean has been faster, according to a study accepted for publication in the Journal of quite heated (pun intended). Paul Beckwith was criticized by the Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (July 2013). It appears a conservative website, Skeptical Science. His response from 9 August Heinrich Event has been triggered in Greenland. Consider the 2013 is here. description of such an event as provided by Robert Scribbler on 8 2. Warm Atlantic water is defrosting the Arctic as it shoots through August 2013: the Fram Strait (Science, January 2011). In a Heinrich Event, the melt forces eventually reach a tipping 3. Siberian methane vents have increased in size from less than a point. The warmer water has greatly softened the ice sheet. Floods of meter across in the summer of 2010 to about a kilometer across in water flow out beneath the ice. Ice ponds grow into great lakes that 2011 (Tellus, February 2011). According to a paper in the 12 April may spill out both over top of the ice and underneath it. Large ice 2013 issue of Science, a major methane release is almost inevitable, damns (sic) may or may not start to form. All through this time ice which makes me wonder where the authors have been hiding. Almost motion and melt is accelerating. Finally, a major tipping point is inevitable, they report, regarding an ongoing event. reached and in a single large event or ongoing series of such events, a 4. Peat in the world’s boreal forests is decomposing at an massive surge of water and ice flush outward as the ice sheet enters astonishing rate (Nature Communications, November 2011) an entirely chaotic state. Tsunamis of melt water rush out bearing 5. Invasion of tall shrubs warms the soil, hence destabilizes the their vast floatillas (sic) of ice burgs (sic), greatly contributing to sea permafrost (Environmental Research Letters, March 2012) level rise. And that’s when the weather really starts to get nasty. In 6. Greenland ice is darkening (The Cryosphere, June 2012) the case of Greenland, the firing line for such events is the entire 7. Methane is being released from the Antarctic, too (Nature, North Atlantic and, ultimately the Northern Hemisphere. August 2012). According to a paper in the 24 July 2013 issue of 17. Breakdown of the thermohaline conveyor belt is happening in Scientific Reports, melt rate in the Antarctic has caught up to the the Antarctic as well as the Arctic, thus leading to melting of Arctic and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing over 150 cubic Antarctic permafrost (Scientific Reports, July 2013) kilometres of ice each year according to CryoSat observations 18. Loss of Arctic sea ice is reducing the temperature gradient published 11 December 2013, and Antarctica’s crumbling Larsen B between the poles and the equator, thus causing the jet stream to slow Ice Shelf is poised to finish its collapse, according to Ted Scambos, a and meander. One result is the creation of weather blocks such as the glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the annual recent very high temperatures in Alaska. As a result, boreal peat dries meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Further confirmation of and catches fire like a coal seam. The resulting soot enters the large methane releases is revealed by noctilucent clouds over the atmosphere to fall again, coating the ice surface elsewhere, thus southern hemisphere from 21 November 2013 to 6 December 2013. reducing albedo and hastening the melting of ice. Each of these 8. Russian forest and bog fires are growing (NASA, August 2012), individual phenomena has been reported, albeit rarely, but to my a phenomenon consequently apparent throughout the northern knowledge the dots have not been connected beyond this space. The hemisphere (Nature Communications, July 2013). The New York inability or unwillingness of the media to connect two dots is not Times reports hotter, drier conditions leading to huge fires in western surprising, and has been routinely reported (recently including here North America as the “new normal” in their 1 July 2013 issue. A with respect to climate change and wildfires) (July 2013) paper in the 22 July 2013 issue of the Proceedings of the National 19. Arctic ice is growing darker, hence less reflective (Nature Academy of Sciences indicates boreal forests are burning at a rate Climate Change, August 2013) exceeding that of the last 10,000 years. 20. Extreme weather events drive climate change, as reported in 9. Cracking of glaciers accelerates in the presence of increased the 15 August 2013 issue of Nature (Nature, August 2013) carbon dioxide (Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics, October 21. Drought-induced mortality of trees contributes to increased 2012) decomposition of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and decreased 10. The Beaufort Gyre apparently has reversed course (U.S. sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Such mortality has been National Snow and Ice Data Center, October 2012) documented throughout the world since at least November 2000 in 11. Exposure to sunlight increases bacterial conversion of exposed Nature, with recent summaries in the February 2013 issue of Nature soil carbon, thus accelerating thawing of the permafrost (Proceedings for the tropics and in the August 2013 issue of Frontiers in Plant of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2013) Science for temperate North America. 12. The microbes have joined the party, too, according to a paper One extremely important example of this phenomenon is occurring in the 23 February 2013 issue of New Scientist in the Amazon, where drought in 2010 led to the release of more 13. Summer ice melt in Antarctica is at its highest level in a carbon than the United States that year (Science, February 2011). In thousand years: Summer ice in the Antarctic is melting 10 times addition, ongoing deforestation in the region is driving declines in quicker than it was 600 years ago, with the most rapid melt occurring precipitation at a rate much faster than long thought, as reported in in the last 50 years (Nature Geoscience, April 2013). Although the 19 July 2013 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. scientists have long expressed concern about the instability of the 22. Ocean acidification leads to release of less dimethyl sulphide West Atlantic Ice Sheet (WAIS), a research paper published in the 28 (DMS) by plankton. DMS shields Earth from radiation. (Nature August 2013 of Nature indicates the East Atlantic Ice Sheet (EAIS) Climate Change, online 25 August 2013). Plankton form the base of has undergone rapid changes in the past five decades. The latter is the the marine food web, and are on the verge of disappearing world’s largest ice sheet and was previously thought to be at little risk completely, according to a paper in the 17 October 2013 issue of from climate change. But it has undergone rapid changes in the past Global Change Biology. five decades, signaling a potential threat to global sea levels. The 23. Sea-level rise causes slope collapse, tsunamis, and release of EAIS holds enough water to raise sea levels more than 50 meters. methane, as reported in the September 2013 issue of Geology. In eastern Siberia, the speed of coastal erosion has nearly doubled Never mind all that: Future temperatures likely will be at the during the last four decades as the permafrost melts. higher end of the projected range because the forecasts are all too 24. Rising ocean temperatures will upset natural cycles of carbon conservative and also because climate negotiations won’t avert dioxide, nitrogen and phosphorus, hence reducing plankton (Nature catastrophe. Climate Change, September 2013) Through late March 2013, global oceans have risen approximately 25. Earthquakes trigger methane release, and consequent warming ten millimeters per year during the last two years. This rate of rise is of the planet triggers earthquakes, as reported by Sam Carana at the over three times the rate of sea level rise during the time of satellite- Arctic Methane Emergency Group (October 2013) based observations from 1993 to the present. Ocean temperatures are 26. Small ponds in the Canadian Arctic are releasing far more rising, and have been impacting global fisheries for four decades, methane than expected based on their aerial cover (PLoS ONE, according to the 16 May 2013 issue of Nature. November 2013) Actually, catastrophe is already here, although it’s not widely 27. Mixing of the jet stream is a catalyst, too. High methane distributed in the United States. Well, not yet, even though the releases follow fracturing of the jet stream, accounting for past continental U.S. experienced its highest temperature ever in 2012, global-average temperature rises up to 16 C in a decade or two (Paul shattering the 1998 record by a full degree Fahrenheit. But the east Beckwith via video on 19 December 2013). coast of North America experienced its hottest water temperatures all 28. Research indicates that “fewer clouds form as the planet the way to the bottom of the ocean. The epic dust bowl of 2012 grew warms, meaning less sunlight is reflected back into space, driving and grew and grew all summer long. As pointed out in the March temperatures up further still” (Nature, January 2014) 2004 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, disappearing sea ice is 29. Arctic drilling was fast-tracked by the Obama administration expectedly contributing to the drying of the western United States during the summer of 2012 (more definitive research on the topic appeared in the December 2005 30. Supertankers are taking advantage of the slushy Arctic, issue of Earth Interactions). Equally expectedly, the drought arrived demonstrating that every catastrophe represents a business 40 years early. opportunity, as pointed out by Professor of journalism Michael I. Even James Hansen and Makiko Sato are asking whether the loss Niman and picked up by Truthout (ArtVoice, September 2013) of ice on Greenland has gone exponential (while ridiculously calling As nearly as I can distinguish, only the latter two feedback for a carbon tax to “fix” the “problem”), and the tentative answer is processes are reversible at a temporal scale relevant to our species. not promising, based on very recent data, including a nearly five-fold Once you pull the tab on the can of beer, there’s no keeping the increase in melting of Greenland’s ice since the 1990s and a stunning carbon dioxide from bubbling up and out. These feedbacks are not melting of 98 percent of Greenland’s ice surface between 8 and 15 additive, they are multiplicative. Now that we’ve entered the era of July 2012. The mainstream media are finally taking notice, with the expensive oil, I can’t imagine we’ll voluntarily terminate the process 18 July 2013 issue of Washington Post reporting the ninth highest of drilling for oil and gas in the Arctic (or anywhere else). Nor will April snow cover in the northern hemisphere giving way to the third we willingly forgo a few dollars by failing to take advantage of the lowest snow cover on record the following month (relevant records long-sought Northwest Passage. date to 1967, and the article is headlined, “Snow and Arctic sea ice Robin Westenra provides an assessment of these positive extent plummet suddenly as globe bakes”). feedbacks at Seemorerocks on 14 July 2013. It’s worth a look. On a particularly dire note for humanity, causes early death of five See how far we’ve come million people each year. Adding to our misery are interactions Never mind that American naturalist George between various aspects of environmental decay. Perkins Marsh predicted anthropogenic climate For example, warming in the Arctic is causing the change as a result of burning fossil fuels in 1847. release of toxic chemicals long trapped in the Never mind the warning issued by filmmaker region’s snow, ice, ocean and soil, according to Frank Capra in 1958 or the one issued by José research published in the 24 July 2011 issue of Antonio Viera-Gallo, Assistant Secretary of Nature Climate Change. Justice in the Chilean government of Salvador Greenhouse-gas emissions keep rising, and Allende, in 1973: “the impact of industrially keep setting records. According to 10 June 2013 packaged quanta of energy on the social report by the International Energy Agency, the environment tends to be degrading, exhausting, horrific trend continued in 2012, when carbon and enslaving, and these effects come into play dioxide emissions set a record for the fifth even before those which threaten the pollution of consecutive year. The trend puts disaster in the the physical environment and the extinction of the cross-hairs, with the ever-conservative (human) race.” Never mind that climate risks International Energy Agency claiming we’re have been underestimated for the last 20 Years, or that the IPCC’s headed for a temperature in excess of 5 C. efforts have failed miserably. After all, climate scientist Kevin Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global Anderson tells us what I’ve known for years: politicians and the warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the scientists writing official reports on climate change are lying, and we past 15 years than the prior 15 years. This warming has resulted in have less time than most people can imagine. Never mind David about 90% of overall global warming going into heating the oceans, Wasdell pointed out in 2008 that we must have a period of negative and the oceans have been warming dramatically, according to a paper radiative forcing merely to end up with a stable, non-catastrophic published in the March 2013 issue of Geophysical Research Letters. climate system. Never mind that even the Atlantic is displaying “five Even Slate magazine figured it out by 5 November 2013, and The charts about climate change that should have you very, very Guardian‘s headline from 13 November 2013 announces, “Global worried.” Never mind that atmospheric carbon dioxide is affecting warming since 1997 more than twice as fast as previously estimated, satellites. Never mind that even the occasional economic analyst is new study shows.” November 2013 was the hottest global November telling climate scientists to be persuasive, be brave, and be arrested. surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from Never mind that Peruvian ice requiring 1,600 years to accumulate has NASA. About 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has melted in the last 25 years, according to a paper in the 4 April 2013 occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which is issue of Science. And never mind that warming in the interior of large unprecedented over at least the past half century. According to a continents in the northern hemisphere has outstripped model paper in the 1 November 2013 issue of Science, the rate of warming predictions in racing to 6-7 C already, according to a paper that tallies of the Pacific Ocean during the last 60 years is 15 times faster than at temperature rise in China’s interior in the 15 May 2013 issue of the any time during the last 10,000 years. ** By the end of 2013, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. fourth-hottest year on record, the deep oceans were warming particularly rapidly and NASA and NOAA reported no pause in the rapidly enough to keep up with ongoing and projected changes in long-term warming trend. ** The death spiral of Arctic sea ice is well climate. under way, as shown in the video below. How critical is Arctic ice? Whereas nearly 80 calories are required In the category of myth busting comes recent research published in to melt a gram of ice at 0 C, adding 80 calories to the same gram of the August 2013 issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of water at 0 C increases its temperature to 80 C. Anthropogenic Sciences. Contrary to the notion that changing solar radiation is greenhouse-gas emissions add more than 2.5 trillion calories to responsible for rising global temperature, the amount of solar Earth’s surface every hour (ca. 3 watts per square meter, radiation passing through Earth’s atmosphere and reaching the continuously). ground globally peaked in the 1930s, substantially decreased from the Ocean acidification associated with increased atmospheric carbon 1940s to the 1970s, and changed little after that. Indeed, the current dioxide is proceeding at an unprecedented rate — the fastest in 300 solar activity cycle is the weakest in a century. In addition, according million years — leading to great simplification of ecosystems, and to a paper in the 22 December 2013 issue of Nature GeoScience, capable of triggering mass extinction by itself. Already, half the climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat Great Barrier Reef has died during the last three decades. As with from the sun. many attributes, the Arctic Ocean leads the way in acidification. And Global loss of sea ice matches the trend in the Arctic. It’s down, ocean acidification is hardly the only threat on the climate-change down, and down some more, with the five lowest values on record all front. As one little-discussed example, atmospheric oxygen levels are happening in the last seven years (through 2012). As reported in a dropping to levels considered dangerous for humans, particularly in June 2013 issue of Science, the Antarctic’s ice shelves are melting cities. from below. When interviewed for the associated article in the 13 An increasing number of scientists agree that warming of 4 to 6 C June 2013 issue of National Geographic, scientists expressed surprise causes a dead planet. And, they go on to say, we’ll be there by 2060. at the rate of change. Color me shocked. Three months later, the 13 Earth-system scientist Clive Hamilton concludes in his April 2013 September 2013 issue of Science contains another surprise for book Earthmasters that “without [atmospheric sulphates associated mainstream scientists: The Pine Island Glacier is melting from below with industrial activity] … Earth would be an extra 1.1 C warmer.” In as a result of warming seawater. And four months after that dire other words, collapse takes us directly to 2 C within a matter of assessment, the massive glacier was melting irreversibly, according weeks. According to a paper in the 24 November 2013 issue of to a paper in the 12 January 2014 issue of Nature Climate Change Nature Climate Change, warming of the planet will continue long (Robert Scribbler provides an overview of the latter phenomenon). after emissions cease. Several other academic scientists have Then see where we’re going concluded, in the refereed journal literature no less, that the 2 C mark The climate situation is much worse than I’ve led you to believe, is essentially impossible (for example, see the review paper by Mark and is accelerating far more rapidly than accounted for by models. New and colleagues published in the 29 November 2010 issue of the Even the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A). The German acknowledges, in a press release dated 6 June 2013, potentially lethal Institute for International and Security Affairs concluded 2 June 2013 heat waves on the near horizon. Piling on a month later, the World that a 2 C rise in global-average temperature is no longer feasible Meteorological Organization pointed out that Earth experienced (and Spiegel agrees, finally, in their 7 June 2013 issue), while the unprecedented recorded climate extremes during the decade 2001- ultra-conservative International Energy Agency concludes that, “coal 2010, contributing to more than a 2,000 percent increase in heat- will nearly overtake oil as the dominant energy source by 2017 … related deaths. without a major shift away from coal, average global temperatures Ice sheet loss continues to increase at both poles, and warming of could rise by 6 degrees Celsius by 2050, leading to devastating the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is twice the earlier scientific estimate. climate change.” At the 11:20 mark of this video, climate scientist Arctic ice at all-time low, half that of 1980, and the Arctic lost Paul Beckwith indicates Earth could warm by 6 C within a decade. If enough sea ice to cover Canada and Alaska in 2012 alone. In short, you think his view is extreme, consider (1) the 5 C rise in global- summer ice in the Arctic is nearly gone. Furthermore, the Arctic average temperature 55 million years ago during a span of 13 years could well be free of ice by summer 2015, an event that last occurred (reported in the 1 October 2013 issue of Proceedings of the National some three million years ago, before the genus Homo walked the Academy of Sciences), and also (2) the reconstruction of regional and planet. Among the consequences of declining Arctic ice is extremes global temperature for the past 11,300 years published in Science in in cold weather in northern continents (thus illustrating why “climate March 2013. One result is shown in the figure below. change” is a better term than “global warming”). In a turn surprising It’s not merely scientists who know where we’re going. The only to mainstream climate scientists, Greenland ice is melting Pentagon is bracing for public dissent over climate and energy rapidly. shocks, as reported by Nafeez Ahmed in the 14 June 2013 issue of Even the conservative International Energy Agency (IEA) has the Guardian. According to Ahmed’s article: “Top secret US thrown in the towel, concluding that “renewable” energy is not National Security Agency (NSA) documents disclosed by the keeping up with the old, dirty standard sources. As a result, the IEA Guardian have shocked the world with revelations of a report dated 17 April 2013 indicates the development of low-carbon comprehensive US-based surveillance system with direct access to energy is progressing too slowly to limit global warming. Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft and other tech giants. New The Arctic isn’t Vegas — what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay Zealand court records suggest that data harvested by the NSA’s Prism in the Arctic — it’s the planet’s air conditioner. In fact, as pointed out system has been fed into the Five Eyes intelligence alliance whose 10 June 2013 by research scientist Charles Miller of NASA’s Jet members also include the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.” Propulsion Laboratory: “Climate change is already happening in the In short, the “Pentagon knows that environmental, economic and Arctic, faster than its ecosystems can adapt. Looking at the Arctic is other crises could provoke widespread public anger toward like looking at the canary in the coal mine for the entire Earth government and corporations” and is planning accordingly. Such system.” In addition, “average summer temperatures in the Canadian “activity is linked to the last decade of US defence planning, which Arctic are now at the highest they’ve been for approaching 50,000 has been increasingly concerned by the risk of civil unrest at home years” (and perhaps up to 120,000 years) according to a paper triggered by catastrophic events linked to climate change, energy published online 23 October 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. shocks or economic crisis — or all three.” The global police state has On the topic of rapidity of change, a paper in the August 2013 issue arrived, and it’s accompanied by a subtle changes in Earth’s rotation of Ecology Letters points out that rates of projected climate change that result from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets (i.e., climate dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among change is causing Earth’s poles to shift). vertebrate species. In other words, vertebrates cannot evolve or adapt