PEASANTS, CITIZENS AND SOLDIERS Recentyearshavewitnessedanintensedebateconcerningthesizeof thepopulationofRomanItaly.Thisbookarguesthatthecombined literary, epigraphic and archaeological evidence supports the theory thatearly-imperialItalyhadabout6millioninhabitants.Atthesame time the traditional view that the last century of the Republic wit- nessedadeclineinthefreeItalianpopulation isshown tobeunten- able.Themainfociofitssixchaptersare:militaryparticipationrates; demographic recovery after the Second Punic War; the spread of slavery and the background to the Gracchan land reforms; the fast expansionofItaliantownsaftertheSocialWar;emigrationfromItaly; andthefateoftheItalianpopulationduringthefirst150yearsofthe Principate. luuk de ligt isProfessorofAncientHistoryatLeidenUniversity. His book Fairs and Markets in the Roman Empire (1993) continues to be cited as a standard work on the rural economy of the Roman world. He has also published widely on Roman republican history andontheinterplaybetweenlegalandeconomicdevelopments.His edited volume, People, Land and Politics: Demographic Developments and the Transformation of Roman Italy, 300 bc–ad14 (2008, with S.J.Northwood),hasbeengreetedasacompulsorystartingpointfor all those aspiring to understand the demographic, economic, social andpoliticalstructuresofRomanrepublicanItaly. PEASANTS, CITIZENS AND SOLDIERS Studies in the Demographic History of Roman Italy 225 bc–ad100 LUUK DE LIGT cambridge university press Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown, Singapore,SãoPaulo,Delhi,MexicoCity CambridgeUniversityPress TheEdinburghBuilding,Cambridgecb28ru,uk PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107013186 ©LuukdeLigt2012 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2012 PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationdata Ligt,L.de. Peasants,citizensandsoldiers:studiesinthedemographichistoryofRomanItaly225bc–ad100/ LuukdeLigt. p. cm. isbn978-1-107-01318-6 1. Italy–Population–History. 2. Rome–History–Republic,265–30bc 3. Rome–History– Antonines,96–192. I. Title. HB3599.L485 2012 304.60937ʹ09014–dc23 2011032182 isbn978-1-107-01318-6Hardback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. Contents Listoftables page ix Listofmaps xi Noteonabbreviations xiii Preface xv Chapter1 Evidence,theoriesandmodelsinRomanpopulationhistory 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Romandemography:lowcountversushighcount 5 1.3 Traditionaltypesofevidence:literarysourcesandrural surveydata 10 1.4 Newapproaches 11 1.4.1 Evidenceforlandclearance 13 1.4.2 EvidenceforthesizeofItaliantowns 16 1.4.3 Osteologicalevidence 17 1.4.4 Estimatesofcarryingcapacity 20 1.4.5 Comparativeevidence 25 1.4.6 Climatechange 27 1.4.7 Commercialgrainimports 30 1.4.8 Imperialexpansionandpopulationgrowth 31 1.5 OldandnewapproachestoRomandemography:strengths andlimitations 34 Chapter2 Polybius’manpowerfiguresandthesizeoftheItalian populationontheeveoftheHannibalicWar 40 2.1 Introduction 40 2.1.1 Lowcount 40 2.1.2 Highcount 44 2.1.3 Otherinterpretations 47 2.2 Someweaknessesofexistinginterpretations 47 2.2.1 Towardsanewinterpretation:thebackgroundtothe tallyof225bc 52 2.2.2 AgegroupsinthearmiesoftheRepublic 55 2.2.3 Somefurtherimplications 63 v vi Contents 2.4 ThepopulationofItalyin225bc 71 2.5 ThePolybianmanpowerfiguresandRomanmobilizationrates 72 2.6 Conclusions 77 Chapter3 Censusproceduresandthemeaningoftherepublicanand early-imperialcensusfigures 79 3.1 Introduction 79 3.1.1 Averyshortaccountoftherepublicancensus 80 3.1.2 Thecentralproblem:censusproceduresand registrationrates 81 3.2 Thetargetpopulationoftherepublicancensuses: iunioresandseniores 82 3.2.1 Citizenssuiiurisandcitizensalieniiuris 83 3.2.2 Civesoptimoiureandcivessinesuffragio 87 3.2.3 LegionariesservingoutsideItaly 95 3.2.4 Assiduiandproletarii 98 3.3 Centralizedanddecentralizedcensusproceduresbefore theSocialWar 106 3.4 Thecensusfigurefor86/85bc 112 3.5 Someotherpiecesofevidence 116 3.6 Republicancensusprocedures:someprovisionalconclusions 120 3.7 Achangeinregistrationorreportingpracticesunder Augustus? 120 3.7.1 InterpretingtheAugustancensusfigures:philological andtechnicalarguments 121 3.7.2 ComparativeperspectivesontheAugustancensusfigures 128 3.8 Conclusions 134 Chapter4 Peasants,citizensandsoldiers,201bc–28bc 135 4.1 Introduction 135 4.2 Developmentsbetween201bcand163bc:fourquestions 137 4.2.1 TheimpactoftheHannibalicWarandthecensus figurefor203bc 138 4.2.2 DemographicrecoveryaftertheSecondPunicWar 142 4.2.3 Therationalebehindviritanedistributionsand colonization 150 4.2.4 Thelowcountandthespreadofagriculturalslavery 154 4.3 Developmentsbetween163bcand133bc:thebackground totheGracchanlandreforms 157 4.3.1 TheGracchanlandreformsintheliterarytradition 158 4.3.2 Theoriesofdemographicdecline:povertyandits consequences 159 4.3.3 Moreslaves=fewerruralcitizens? 162 4.3.4 Recruitmentandlossesonthebattlefield 165 4.3.5 Analternativelow-countreconstruction 167 Contents vii 4.3.6 Competinglow-countreadingsofthecensusfigures fortheperiod163bc–124bc 171 4.3.7 ThehighcountandtheGracchanlandreforms 177 4.3.8 SurveyarchaeologyandtheGracchan‘crisis’ 179 4.4 Developmentsbetween133bcand28bc 182 4.4.1 Mariusandtheproletarianizationofthelegions 183 4.4.2 EmigrationfromItaly 184 4.4.3 Emigration,urbanizationandthedeclineofthefree population 187 4.5 Conclusions 191 Chapter5 TheAugustancensusfiguresandItaly’surbannetwork 193 5.1 Introduction 193 5.1.1 Thegeographicaldistributionofthepopulation 194 5.1.2 Italy’surbannetworkatthetimeofAugustus 196 5.1.3 Definitionalproblems 199 5.1.4 Somemethodologicalconsiderations 202 5.2 TheurbannetworkofCisalpineGaulin28bc 205 5.2.1 Someingredientsforamoredetailedanalysis 210 5.2.2 Expectedurbanizationrates 211 5.2.3 Expectedurbanpopulationdensities 213 5.2.4 Alow-countmodelforCisalpineGaul 224 5.2.5 Ahigh-countmodelforCisalpineGaul? 227 5.3 ThepopulationofcentralandsouthernItaly 228 5.3.1 Expectedurbanizationratesincentralandsouthern Italy 230 5.3.2 Expectedurbanpopulationdensitiesincentraland southernItaly 233 5.4 TheurbannetworkofcentralandsouthernItalyin28bc: abriefoutline 235 5.4.1 Somelow-countmodelsforcentralandsouthernItaly 238 5.4.2 Somehigh-countmodelsforcentralandsouthernItaly 241 5.5 Somegeneralconclusions 242 Chapter6 Surveyarchaeologyanddemographicdevelopmentsinthe Italiancountryside 247 6.1 Introduction 247 6.2 Methodologicalproblems 249 6.3 Diachronicpatternsandtheirinterpretation 254 6.4 Trendsinsitenumbers,300bc–ad100 257 6.5 Ruralsurveydataanddemographicmodels 265 6.6 Sitedensitiesinthesuburbium:towardsalow-count explanation 271 6.7 Landandlabourincentral-westernItaly,200bc–ad100 279 6.8 Conclusions 283 viii Contents Epilogue 284 Appendices i Citiesandtownsinearly-imperialCisalpina 289 ii CitiesandtownsincentralandsouthItaly 304 iii Populationfiguresforlargestnortherncities,ad1600 337 iv Someingredientsforarevisedlow-countmodel 340 Bibliography 345 Index 382 Tables 1.1 Hopkins’versionofthelowcount page7 2.1 Romanandalliedmanpowerfiguresin225bc accordingto Polybius 41 2.2 Alliedmanpowerin225bc 69 4.1 Romancensusfigures(204bc–114bc) 136 4.2 Agestructureofapopulationof340,000adultmales 144 4.3 Alternativelow-countmodelforthelateRepublic 190 5.1 Eightlow-countmodelsofurbanizationinearlyAugustan Cisalpina 225 5.2 Eightlow-countmodelsofurbanizationinearlyAugustan Transpadana 226 5.3 Fourhigh-countmodelsofurbanizationinearlyAugustan Cisalpina 227 5.4 Eightlow-countmodelsofurbanizationincentraland southernItaly 239 5.5 Fourhigh-countmodelsofurbanizationincentraland southernItaly 241 ix