Footprints of Regional Science The Voice of Regional Science Mehmet Güney Celbiş Karima Kourtit Peter Nijkamp Editors Pandemic and the City Footprints of Regional Science The Voice of Regional Science Series Editors Bruce Newbold, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada Vicente Royuela , University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain Mia Wahlström, Tyréns, Gustavsberg, Sweden The field of regional science continues to advance. The book series The Voice of Regional Science presents new scholarly thinking on important emerging issues and new scientific advances in the broad and multidisciplinary domain of regional science research. The contributions to the series invoke the aim of the Regional Science Academy to rethink “the spatial dynamics of people and socio-economic activities in the connected and complex spatial systems of our earth.” The volumes in this series will serve the global regional science community by providing new insights on, or by calling attention to, recent developments that are rarely covered by conventional conferences, or are indicative of novel research directions. The Voice of Regional Science welcomes both edited volumes and monographs, with works originating in the meetings of the Academy or proposed by external authors and volume editors. It features scholarly works that are retrospective only to the extent necessary to lay the groundwork for visions of future research in the area; all volumes have a forward-looking focus. Further, the series’ emphasis on thematic publications is intended to promote a more future-oriented strategic focus for regional science research. Applied studies in regional science are also welcome, provided they reflect this forward-looking focus. The two sub-series The Voice of Regional Science and Great Minds in Regional Science jointly form a series entitled Footprints in Regional Science. All three book series present work stemming from and related to the activities of The Regional Science Academy (www.regionalscienceacademy.org). · · Mehmet Güney Celbis¸ Karima Kourtit Peter Nijkamp Editors Pandemic and the City Editors Mehmet Güney Celbis¸ Karima Kourtit Department of Economics Programme Smart Cities and Data Yeditepe University Analytics Istanbul, Turkey Open University Heerlen, The Netherlands Peter Nijkamp Programme Smart Cities and Data Analytics Open University Heerlen, The Netherlands ISSN 2662-9623 ISSN 2662-9631 (electronic) Footprints of Regional Science ISSN 2662-9704 ISSN 2662-9712 (electronic) The Voice of Regional Science ISBN 978-3-031-21982-5 ISBN 978-3-031-21983-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21983-2 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Contents The Pandemic and the City ......................................... 1 Mehmet Güney Celbis¸, Karima Kourtit, and Peter Nijkamp Cities, Cooperation, and Resilience in the Face of COVID-19 The Resilience of Cities to COVID-19: A Literature Review and Application to Dutch Cities ..................................... 11 Jeroen van Haaren and Frank van Oort A Subjective Geographer’s Experience of Pandemic and Confidence in Systems of Cities ................................. 33 Denise Pumain City and Regional Demand for Vaccines Whose Supply Arises from Competition in a Bertrand Duopoly ............................ 45 Amitrajeet A. Batabyal and Hamid Beladi Post Pandemic Cities—Competing for Size or Cooperating for Interaction an Analysis of the Evolution of Portuguese Municipalities Based on an Organic and Rational Spatial Interaction Growth Models ......................................... 61 Tomaz Ponce Dentinho Comparative Approaches on the Patterns and Effects of City and Location-Specific Policies and Socioeconomic Structures During COVID-19 The Social Digital Twin for Liveable Cities: A COVID-19 Case Study ............................................................. 77 Corentin Kuster, Sanne Hettinga, Tim van Vliet, Henk Scholten, and Paul Padding v vi Contents The Impact of Differing COVID-19 Mitigation Policies: Three Natural Experiments Using Difference-in-Difference Modelling ........ 97 Kingsley E. Haynes, Rajendra Kulkarni, Abu Siddique, and Meng-Hao Li On the Association Between Income Inequality and COVID Spread: A View into Spanish Functional Urban Areas ................ 127 David Castells-Quintana and Vicente Royuela Urbanization Impact Arising from the Behavioral Shift of Citizens and Consumers in a Post-pandemic World ........................... 139 Tannistha Maiti, Anwita Maiti, Biswajit Maiti, and Tarry Singh The Socioeconomic and Labor Market Effects of Pandemics on Cities and Local Economies What Happened After SARS in 2003? The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic ..................................................... 163 Ilan Noy, Yasuyuki Sawada, Nguyen Doan, and Canh Phuc Nguyen Industrial Composition, Remote Working and Mobility Changes in Canada and the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A SHAP Value Analysis of XGBoost Predictions .............................. 189 Mehmet Güney Celbis¸, Cem Özgüzel, Karima Kourtit, and Peter Nijkamp The Need for New Types of Data and Applications, and Existing Challenges in Analysing the Effects of COVID-19 on Cities Problems with Recording the Spread of COVID-19 in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Phone Survey in Indonesia ............... 211 Budy P. Resosudarmo, Rus’an Nasrudin, Pyan A. Muchtar, Usep Nugraha, and Anna Falentina Pandemic Regional Recovery Index: An Adaptable Tool for Decision-Making on Regions .................................... 237 J. Irving, K. Waters, T. Clower, and W. Rifkin The Geography of Daily Urban Spatial Mobility During COVID: The Example of Stockholm in 2020 and 2021 ......................... 261 Ian Shuttleworth, Marina Toger, Umut Türk, and John Östh Social Justice, Digitalization, and Health and Well-Being in the Pandemic City ............................................... 279 Laurie A. Schintler and Connie L. McNeely The Pandemic and the City Mehmet Güney Celbis¸, Karima Kourtit, and Peter Nijkamp 1 The Pandemic Experience of the City The recent COVID-19 experience has left deep traces in the urban fabric and has prompted a re-orientation regarding the future of cities. Is an urban overhaul on the way? And will digital technology erode conventional urban agglomeration advan- tages? The socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic will definitely leave their mark on cities. For example, the digital divide has already become more apparent regarding equitable access to education or to virtual libraries. Furthermore, climate change will have a stronger influence on cities than in the past, given that avoiding close indoor activities or reducing dense concentrations of people may become commonplace. For example, operating restaurants with outside dining areas or organizing open-air activities which allow safe social distancing will face new challenges in cities, in particular in places where weather conditions may become less favorable. The rise of telecommuting (i.e. remote working)—as a consequence of digital technology—is a heavily debated new topic. It is argued that if the individuals who work from home move away from urban areas, a lot of office space might be converted into residences. However, the departure of the relatively rich who can work from home B M. G. Celbis¸ ( ) Department of Economics, Yeditepe University, Istanbul 34755, Turkey e-mail: [email protected] UNU-MERIT, 6211 Maastricht, Netherlands K. Kourtit · P. Nijkamp Faculty of Management, Open University, 6419 AT Heerlen, Netherlands e-mail: [email protected] P. Nijkamp e-mail: [email protected] K. Kourtit Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, 700506 Ias¸i, Romania © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 1 M. G. Celbi¸setal.( eds.),P andemic and the City, Footprints of Regional Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21983-2_1 2 M.G.Celbis¸etal. in suburban or non-urban areas will rebound as a considerable loss of tax income for city governments. Their exodus, on the other hand, may lead to novel opportunities for businesses to disperse to new clusters. This being said, the COVID-19 pandemic has presented new opportunities for cities to become more inclusive and sustainable and to invest in essential health infrastructure and public services that may allow them to emerge ultimately stronger from the pandemic. On the other hand, reduced dynamism in urban areas may render cities less appealing to tourists or visitors. The empirical evidence on possible new urban trajectories is still fragmented and at times confusing. Human health has become an increasingly important concern in modern cities, as is evidenced by the current corona pandemic. COVID-19 has shaken some of the foundations of cities, such as density and proximity. Cities are challenged to maintain a high level of well-being or to develop into healthy places, without health risks for the inhabitants. The present volume contains a collection of novel and original contributions to the study of urban sustainability, mainly from a human health perspective. Questions addressed are inter alia: Will cities as we know them survive the pandemic or are we heading towards “doughnut cities”? How will the habits and expectations of the post-Covid generation shape the new city? How will the changes to the urban landscape affect the resilience of cities to other crises (e.g. natural disasters)? Will social distancing and isolation triumph over spatial sharing and togetherness? The future of cities is clearly at stake. This book aims to encompass new analytical contributions, to provide informed discussions, to present empirical findings, and to offer plausible predictions so as to assist policymaking alongside with opening new windows for research regarding the pandemics and the city. It contains and presents a rich set of original and challenging contributions on the implications of and responses to the corona pandemic for modern cities. The scholarly work in this book is separated into four interconnected research challenges and themes: I. Cities, cooperation, and resilience in the face of COVID-19 II. Comparative approaches on patterns and effects of city and location-specific policies and socioeconomic structures during COVID-19 III. The socioeconomic and labor market effects of pandemics on cities and local economies IV. The need for new types of data and applications in addressing challenges in analyzing the effects of COVID-19 on cities The contributions in this volume of Springer’s The Voice of Regional Science series are 14 in total, and are outlined based on the above categorization in the next synthesis section. ThePandemicandtheCity 3 2 Synthesis of the Book 2.1 Cities, Cooperation, and Resilience in the Face of COVID-19 In the first chapter in this volume titled “The Resilience of Cities to COVID-19: A Literature Review and Application to Dutch Cities”, Jeroen van Haaren and Frank van Oort, discuss how cities may be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium to long run from the perspective of urban economics, focusing on the transmission of knowledge. This literature review on city resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic paves the way for the remaining part of this chapter by providing an overview of recent thoughts on the impact of the pandemic on urban economies and adding a case study of the four largest cities in the Netherlands. The scene is set in a further conceptual formulation in the following thought-provoking chapter by Denise Pumain in the chapter titled “A Subjective Geographer’s Experience of Pandemic and Confidence in Systems of Cities.” The chapter discusses the possibility of drastic changes in the territorial organization of the world in light on prior knowledge of the dynamics of cities within systems of cities, providing a framework for assessing the plausibility of predictions. The next chapter in Part I is written by Amitrajeet A. Batabyal and Hamid Beladi titled “City and Regional Demand for Vaccines Whose Supply Arises from Competition in a Bertrand Duopoly.” This chapter presents a one-period model of an aggregate economy composed of cities and regions that demand vaccines designed to fight a pandemic such as COVID-19. The equilibrium pricing strategies of two firms are modeled in a Bertrand Duopoly context, and the incentives to conduct R&D faced by two firms are analyzed under different competition scenarios. Part I is concluded with the chapter titled “Post-Pandemic Cities—Competing for Size or Cooperating for Interaction: An Analysis of the Evolution of Portuguese Municipalities Based on an Organic and Rational Spatial Interaction Growth Models”, by Tomaz Ponce Dentinho. The chapter focuses on the spatial interaction of Portuguese municipal- ities from 1960 until 2021, with regards to an implicit model of spatial interac- tion between municipalities, and the post-pandemic scenarios of spatial interaction between municipalities. Two scenarios of post-pandemic evolution of Portuguese City Regions are simulated; it is observed that the rational interaction expression leads to more concentration of population around the Lisbon and Porto metropolitan areas.