www.worldfocus.in ISSN 2230-8458 444 September 2017 A Premier Indo-Centric Foreign Affairs Journal Since 1980 Complexities in PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan TRUMP'S NEW AFGHAN STRATEGY No Tolerance To The Double Game of Pakistan: Harbouring Terrorism and At The Same Time Seeking and Taking More Funds from US to Counter Terrorism 37th India to Have Larger Role in Afghanistan Year of Publication 100 Energy Security & Central Asia US $ 17 To Reach this location scan Here QR code /WorldFocus.In /WorldFocusIn EDITORIAL In the regions of Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan, the majority of people are followers of Islam, with its divisions of Shia’s and Sunni’s and many other sects, and with a hardy people the area is an eternal war theatre of Islamic nations fighting with each other, along with the borders that the British gave the sub-continent aptly described are Floating borders, as per their threat perceptions to the British at different times. This entire area must have a new regional commission to sort out the problems given by British along with their exit and independence PEER REVIEWED / REFEREED RESEARCH JOURNAL to the area. Volume XXXVIII Number 9 September 2017 For the first time India with great confidence has shown the Chinese that we too can play the border game well, and no one can mess with G . Kishore Babu us China included, has not gone well with the Chinese, who never Editor envisaged that India will take a tough stand and not be brow beaten. About trade, like our Foreign Secretary says about Indo-US ties, Bhabani Dikshit Business is “bread and butter” aptly applicable for India’s relations Managing Editor with all nations now. In an inward looking world an economically strong growing India with a huge domestic local market is a blessing to us. Stuti S. Mandala China has a $ 70 billion trade with India, with a big trade surplus in their Associate Editor favour. Our new Foreign Trade policy document announced in first quarter of 2015 says the government is interested in taking India’s WORLD FOCUS takes up every month one share in global trade from 2.1 % to 3.5 % and taking exports from about international issue and gives an analysis of its various $ 400 billion to $ 900 billion by 2020. Letting cross border trade with aspects by persons well known for their Pakistan is something that Pakistan talks about but does nothing, specialisation in the subject. The issues covered are leave alone trade with Afghanistan and beyond in Central Asia through topical or near topical, but of an abiding interest. Pakistan. The analysis is simple enough to interest even an Balochistan has two major population groups the Baloch and the initiate to world affairs, but without sacrificing depth. Pashtuns along with many other smaller groups. The Baloch’s are also The aim is to present an Indocentric view on a particular issue currently facing the world. spread in Afghanistan and Iran. The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan the Durand line drawn by the British is not accepted by any Opinions expressed in the articles are personal views shade of government in Afghanistan. Pakistan is for ever trying to of the author and in no way reflect the opinion of World Focus. The author is solely responsible for control the government in Afghanistan, sometimes it does, and mostly the contents in his/ her article and the World Focus it does not. Pakistan backs the Taliban and the Haqqani Network and takes no responsibility in this regard. would like them to be the masters in Kabul. Aid to Pakistan for the first The Contents of this magazine cannot be reproduced time is being forcefully linked with what Pakistan is doing to reduce in any form with out prior permission from World terror in the area, and bringing peace to Afghanistan. For the first time Focus. Any legal issues pertaining to World Focus the US state department report has noted that Pakistan has not taken will be settled in NCT region of Delhi only. action against the Taliban and the Haqqani Networks instead they Unsolicited articles will not be returned or operate from its land using it as safe heavens. The US wants an acknowledged. World Focus reserves the right to immediate cessation of these operations. So the entire relationship edit articles for brevity and clarity before publication. with Afghanistan and Pakistan are always in a state of Flux. The Baloch’s fighting for independence is a battle going on with Pakistan Edited, Owned, Published and Printed by for a long time ,they felt cheated that they did not get Independence G. Kishore Babu from B-49 (Ground Floor), Joshi Colony, I.P. Extension, Delhi-110092 at Madhav Press, 4857/24, First Floor, after the British left as their hired a lawyer Mr Jinnah who had promised Ansari Road, Dariyaganj, New Delhi - 110002 to get them Independence, but who went on to be the Pakistani Chief Total number of Pages 164, including Covers and annexed Balochistan. Baluchistan is rich in minerals Copper, Gold, Silver Iron ore, Coal, Sulphur and has Natural Gas fields. In the recent unveiling of Trump’s new US Strategy for the war in Copy Right : World Focus Afghanistan signals a marked hardening of US stand on Pakistan when Our Address: he said, “We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for World Focus terrorist organizations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat B-49, (Ground Floor) Joshi Colony, to the region and beyond.” Trump’s positive remarks and hopes on I P Extension Indian role in Afghanistan is an indication of India’s greater future Delhi - 110092, India stakes in not only Afghanistan but the entire region. Tel. / Fax : 22246905, Mobile No. 8130754555 New Delhi G. Kishore Babu Email: [email protected] September 2017 Editor Website: www.worldfocus.in 3 Complexities in Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan Contents Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas Anil Kamboj IG (Retd).............................................................................................................5 US, India as Factors on Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations post-9/11 Prof. Mohammed Badrul Alam and Dr. Reyaz Ahmad Ganaie...................................................13 India Afghanistan Economic Trade Connectivity - Gauging the Success of Air Freight Corridor Prof. Mondira Dutta..............................................................................................................22 Afghanistan - Pakistan - Balochistan: Ethnic – Geographical Quagmire Prof. Snehalata Panda............................................................................................................30 A Card or Crisis: Indo-Pak Perspectives on Balochistan Prof. Anil Kumar Mohapatra & Dr. Debasish Nandy..................................................................38 Afghanistan and Pakistan: India’s Strategic Concerns Dr. Arunoday Bajpai..............................................................................................................46 Need for India’s Balochistan Policy: From Diplomatic Gambit to Diplomatic Ennui Dr. Alok Kumar Gupta...........................................................................................................53 Pakistan, Balochistan & Afghanistan: Mounting Terror Amidst U.S. AID ! Prof. SudhanshuTripathi..........................................................................................................61 Pakistan’s Policy towards Afghanistan: Challenges from India Dr. Saleem Ahmad.................................................................................................................67 Balochistan Conundrum : Issues and Implications Dr Bhawna Pokharna............................................................................................................75 The Way Forward in 21st Century Afghanistan: Internal Challenges and Opportunities Saumya Maniny Sinha............................................................................................................82 Political Instability in Pakistan: A Permanent Feature of Democracy in Pakistan Dr. Priyanka Mallick..............................................................................................................88 India-Pakistan Geostrategic Competition in Afghanistan Dr. Muzammil Ahad Dar & Showkat Ahmad Kumar................................................................94 India’s Afghan Strategy Beyond 2014: The Pakistan Factor Dr. Ramakrushna Pradhan....................................................................................................101 Narendra Modi on the Footsteps of Indira Gandhi: Will Balochistan Become the Next Bangladesh? Dr.Pitam Ghosh...................................................................................................................107 Pakistan-Afghanistan and Baluchistan: Issues of Conflict and Prospects of Cooperation in South Asia Pankaj Lakhera...................................................................................................................114 US-Pakistan Relations in 1980s on Nuclear Issue Dr. Kuldip Kumar................................................................................................................122 Fragility Trap of Insurgency in Balochistan: Problems and Solutions Vineeth Thomas & Prof. P Lazarus Samraj..........................................................................129 Discarding Ostensible Nationalism: Balochistan A New Bangladesh? Shilpa S.P. Singh..................................................................................................................136 Post-2014 Afghanistan: An Introspection of Security Environment Abdul Rouf Bhat & Dr. Sudheer Singh Verma......................................................................142 Balochistan Movement: Why India’s Policy took a Shift towards Balochistan in Narendra Modi Government? Afroz Ahmad Najish............................................................................................................149 Pakistan’s Decremented Economy: A Shift from Development to Defence to Destruction Prashant Barthwal...............................................................................................................154 4 World Focus September 2017 Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas Anil Kamboj IG (Retd) As I write this article during the month when and fair elections to choose our rulers; we had devised India got its Independence seventy years ago from a dignified political culture of peaceful transfer of British Raj and simultaneously a new country was power among winners and losers after each election carved out of India by the Britishers, I start wondering at the Centre and in the States; we had committed as in what state did the Britishers leave our country ourselves to egalitarian social objectives; we were into. They departed leaving all controversial issues determined not to be a theocratic State; we were behind. They drew the Redcliff Line dividing families, proudly secular and we put in place procedures and rather a large part of Indian population into two. This laws to treat our religious and linguistic minorities Line left lot many controversies which could not be respectfully; we had leaders who drew their visualised by our political leaders then. Prior they had legitimacy and authority from popular mandates; our drawn the McMahon Line which is a border line armed forces stayed in the barracks; we had a free between Northeast India and Tibet proposed and robust judiciary; a mere high court judge in by Henry MacMahon at the 1914 Simla Allahabad could unseat a powerful prime minister. Convention which is considered invalid by the Chinese And, when a regime tried to usurp the democratic government. It is the effective boundary between arrangement, the citizens threw the offending rulers China and India, although its legal status is disputed out at the first opportunity. All these years our political by the Chinese government. The line is named class looked down upon Pakistan for its inability to after Henry McMahon, foreign secretary of British keep its Generals in their place. Whereas, our Army India and the chief negotiator of the convention at has not been visible except while in some operation. Simla. It was signed by McMahon and Lonchen Satra Even these seventy years later, the most complex on behalf of the Tibetan Government. All these legacy of the Partition — Kashmir — remains thoughts came to my mind because as I continue unresolved. It continues to bleed India, financially, writing, another controversial Line reference would politically and spiritually. come up, known as ‘Durrand Line’. This divided then British India and Afghanistan. Is it also a controversial Pakistan, a breeding ground for terrorist organisations, line? Or is it still valid? That needs to be seen in depth. where elected governments have less to fear from the Indian Army than from their own — with good Seventy years later the two nations are yet reason. For almost 60 years, since October 1958, to find a modus vivendi to live in benign comfort with politicians have lost every battle to gain the higher each other. In 1971, India helped Pakistan’s eastern ground of civilian supremacy. After the fall of East wing to discover its separate national identity; Pakistan in December 1971, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had consequently, Pakistan became a much more compact the opportunity to send a demoralised army back to nation. It is much more a natural state today than it the barracks. Many assumed he would. Instead, he was before 1971. And, it now has a huge historic opted to become Pakistan’s fourth president and third grievance against India to sustain its national chief martial law administrator. In 1977, Bhutto, narrative; it continues to define itself as a nation — accused of rigging the general elections, was brutally internally and externally — in hostile terms towards reminded that while political parties owe their loyalty India. to the electorate, the Pakistan Army owes its allegiance to the state (is it the real reason of over For seventy years, or most part of it, we could throwing the established government). The Pakistan legitimately assure ourselves that we were better than Army — one of the region’s largest standing armies, Pakistan. We have had a Constitution and its elaborate feels that it stands also as the vigilant watchdog of arrangements; we were a democracy and held free the national interest, the muscular alternative to Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas 5 mismanaged democracy. One-word common to the improvement of relations with India being high up in lexicon of civilian governments and the security them. The judiciary and the media. evidently played establishment is contempt. The Pakistan army feel a key role in Nawaz Sharif’s unseating. The role of that civilian governments routinely display contempt the judiciary in eroding democratic norms in Pakistan for the public; the security establishment regularly is not new and stretches back to the 1950s. Pakistan’s betrays contempt for civilians. There is a view that media too acquired greater autonomy than ever elected governments are regarded as unwanted, to before.But it would also be a fair assessment that be over-thrown as soon as they start becoming strong both these institutions have had to accommodate or whenever need be, to save the pride of army. The themselves to the rising public esteem of the Pakistan latest is the ouster of third-time Prime Minister Nawaz military as it battled, from late 2014 onwards, domestic Sharif who was not allowed to complete his tenure terrorists with a ferocity and intensity that soothed third time. It is matter of shame on part of Pakistan public opinion ravaged by years of terrorist violence. that none of its elected Prime Minister could complete As per TCA Raghavan, the Pakistan army also went their tenure. The army in Pakistan have always been to very great lengths to internalise a media strategy successful in portraying the elected governments as as the most effective means of interfacing and then useless, corrupt and themselves as the saviours of influencing public opinion. The size and, even more the State. It is a fact that some politicians have helped so, the media outreach of the Inter Services Press army in proving this as true. Relations wing of the army increased in tandem with the intensity of its anti-terror operations. But, This year was also the 10th anniversary of unfortunately no one correctly reported about the the bloody siege of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad. The killing of innocent people in Balochistan, Federally bloody end to the Lal Masjid siege (July 10, 2007) Administrated Tribal Areas and in NWFP in the name had unleashed a wave of terrorist attacks in Pakistan of anti-terror operations. Either media in Pakistan from which no institution and no person appeared does not have access to those areas or are debarred safe. The Pakistan army itself appeared ineffective from reporting about the human rights violation and as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan consolidated itself other activities being carried out in these areas of in the tribal areas and launched attacks virtually at Pakistan. It seems that there is restriction on media’s will across the length and breadth of the country. correct reporting about military operations in Pakistan When Nawaz Sharif assumed office in 2013, the or the media is too terrified to report correct news army’s position in public esteem was possibly lower about these areas. The Pakistan went to the extent than it had been in the preceding decade-and-a-half, to carry out air-strafing on their own people of if not longer. This was because of the shame of the Baluchistan, NWFP and FATA. Osama bin Laden raid but also because it appeared to be just standing by as the constant stream of terror The fact is that nobody even knows how many attacks continued. Nawaz Sharif, in contrast, was people have disappeared - the figures are between stronger than a Prime Minister had been in Pakistan hundreds and several thousand. The families of those for a long time: He appointed a close supporter as disappeared carried out a long march through the last President, saw through both the COAS who had been winter months from Karachi to Islamabad to register in position for six years and an activist and ambitious their loss and grievances with the government. They Chief Justice. said they did not even have a dead body to bury and wanted to know where the men of their families were. The launch of Zarb-e-Azb in mid-2014 and But the government had ignored them - it is almost the intensity it acquired from December 2014 (after as if they did not exist. Large number of journalists the Peshawar school attack) reversed this trend. As have been killed in Balochistan that there are few the army’s stock grew, so did civil-military jostling honest reports from the province in the national print that continued through Nawaz Sharif’s tenure. That or electronic media because journalists are too scared. the odds were stacking up against him was evident The story of this bloody civil war is going untold. as he encountered markedly higher levels of difficulties in addressing his favourite ideas — an 6 World Focus September 2017 Hafiz Saeed is planning to rename his appears like both the countries are exerting pressure organisation Jamat ud Dawah (JuD) as Milli Muslim on India. League Pakistan and launch a new political party in Pakistan on forthcoming nation’s Independence Day. Balochistan The news would have passed on as an ordinary one Located very close to the oil lanes of the Persian and not drawn much media attention world over but Gulf and having a common border with Iran and for the fact that Hafiz Saeed is a UN declared Afghanistan, Balochistan is strategically very international terrorist. He carries a bounty of $ 10 important. Commanding almost the entire coast of million announced by the United States (US) for his the country – 470 miles of the Arabian Sea, and masterminding of 2008 Mumbai terror attacks in which boasting of a deep-sea port recently completed with 164 civilians were killed including 6 American citizens. Chinese assistance at Gawadar, Balochistan Hafiz Muhammad Saeed is a co-founder of Lashkar- comprises 43% of Pakistan’s total area but is home e-Taiba (LET) and the chief or Amir of JuD, which to just over 5% of the population, 50% of whom are operates mainly from Pakistan and has had sanctions ethnic Pashtuns. A tribal society, once part of placed against it as a terrorist organisation by the Afghanistan has always been ruled autocratically by United Nations. He is an internationally designated sardars (tribal chiefs), mainly three Sardars of Bugti, terrorist. Hafiz Saeed is also listed on the NIA ‘Most Marri and Mengal tribes. Wanted list’ and LET is a banned terrorist organisation in India. The US, the United Kingdom, the European The chief minister of Balochisan Abdul Malik Union, Russia and Australia have also banned LET. Baloch, who heads the weak provincial government in Quetta, has demanded a dialogue with the nationalist When LET was banned in Pakistan, the leaders. He is powerless unless the federal political arm of the group, JuD, was not initially banned government and the army agree. The fifth Baloch despite its recognition by the UN Security Council as insurgency against the Pakistan state had begun in a LET front. JuD was also banned subsequently. 2003, with small guerrilla attacks by autonomy- However, JuD continues to work openly as LET’s seeking Baloch groups who over the years have charitable wing in Pakistan. As per Brig Anil Gupta, become increasingly militant and separatist in ideology. Hafiz Saeed enjoys the patronage of the, Pakistani Their leaders who are mostly in exile abroad now Deep State, ISI. He is treated by the ISI as a demand independence from Pakistan. I n early 2012, “strategic asset” and despite being under custody in the Chairman o f t h e U.S. House of Representatives’ Pakistan since January 31, he continues to enjoy all Foreign Affairs Subcommittee convened a hearing privileges and holds regular meetings with his on Balochistan and, in a Sense of Congress resolution, colleagues and followers as well as continues to plan called on Pakistan to recognize the ethnic minority and direct terrorist attacks in India. He is rabidly anti- Baloch right to self-determination. Despite the non- India and regularly spews venom against India and binding nature of such resolutions, Pakistan’s US in his hysterical speeches across the length and government and much of its political class expressed breadth of Pakistan. Imagine the international terrorist outrage, viewing this as foreign interference. getting elected and occupying an important post in Expressing the sense of Congress that the people of the Pakistan government. Baluchistan, currently divided between Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, have the right to self-determination Pakistan neither accepted nor exchanged and to their own sovereign country. Baloch insurgency sweets with BSF on the border area in Jammu on has attracted far less international attention than the their Independence Day and did not exchanged conflicts in Pakistan’s northwest tribal areas. sweets on our Independence Day this year, where Pakistan’s poor security situation and government every year exchange of sweets had been taking place. travel restrictions limit foreign access to “sensitive This clearly shows bad intention of our neighbour. areas,” including Balochistan, where, allegedly for The exchange of greetings on the border areas with security reasons, foreign journalists may not venture China also did not take place on our Independence without the Army’s permission. Day where every year the Chinese had participated, Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas 7 Although Balochistan, the largest and poorest The tragedy is that although there is intense province in Pakistan, historically has been a strategic division in the country over talking to the Taliban. backwater, its importance could change with the Strong pro- and anti-lobbies argue it out daily. But, emergence of several factors. Rich in largely there is no such dispute about talking to the Baloch untapped mineral and energy resources and adjoining nationalists. As per IA Rehman, Secretary General the Arabian Sea with access routes to Afghanistan of Human Rights Commision of Pakistan, “all the and Iran, the province has chafed against centralized political parties seem to agree about the need for a Pakistani control since the end of British rule in 1947. dialogue, but it is the army that has to agree. After Since then, it has waged a low-level insurgency the opening of negotiations with the Taliban, it is even against the Punjab-dominated Pakistani government more absurd to be not offering an opening to talk to that has periodically resulted in periods of more intense the Baloch nationalists who are their people”. (If armed conflict, including from 2005 to the present. Pakistan government considers them as their Baloch nationalists seek greater autonomy, more nationals). The lack of response is causing incalculable control over revenues from Baloch natural resources, harm to Pakistan. But without a major initiative from greater funds for development, and an end to the federal government to bring together the army, extrajudicial killings and human rights violations. Some parliament, the political parties and other stakeholders call for Balochistan’s complete independence from in the establishment, it is unlikely there will be any Pakistan. The central government, fiercely committed move for opening talks with the Baloch militants. Here to maintaining the integrity of the Pakistani state, has the question arises that whether the civil government generally circumvented Baloch demands with divide- has a right to suggest or direct Pakistan army to do and-rule tactics; when necessary, it has suppressed so. the insurgency with overwhelming military power. The Baloch live in a vast territory the size of Unlike in past Baloch insurgencies when France boasting enormous reserves of gas, gold and militants only targeted the army, this time the militants copper, as well as untapped sources of oil and have targeted non-Baloch civilians living in uranium, yet one that is criss-crossed by the borders Balochistan to drive out other nationalities. Every of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Islamabad’s disappeared Baloch leads to many more youngsters exploitation of natural resources in the area, combined taking up arms. Every attack on the security forces with repressive state-run policies, have led to five leads to more disappeared. It is an endless cycle of armed uprisings in the region since the territory was violence that has gone on for more than a decade. annexed by Pakistan in 1948. The Baloch insurgent The Frontier Corps, the anti-Shia group Lashkar-e- movement the world still knows little about. Jhangvi and other groups are all enmeshed in a “Parliamentary politics is not an option for us so we’re decade-long campaign of “pick up and dump” in forced to make politics with weapons,” Khair Bux which Baloch nationalists, militants or even innocent Marri, the tribal leader widely perceived as the bystanders are picked up, disappeared, tortured, godfather of the Baloch insurgency, once told during mutilated and then killed. Many dead bodies have his interview in 2009. His son, Balaach Marri, led been discovered from a mass grave in the village of the Balochistan Liberation Army from 2000 until his Tutak near Khuzdar in Balochistan province. A heart- assassination in 2007. Balaach’s portrait, wearing a breaking account of the mass grave by Saher Baloch, Baloch cap and holding an assault rifle, is almost a journalist for Dawn newspaper, ends with the ubiquitous in Baloch bazaar stalls and shops across ominous prediction by an official that there are more Pakistan’s southernmost province. bodies waiting to be found. As expected, the army, paramilitaries and the government have consistently After the death of Marri, Pakistan claims that denied being responsible for violence in Balochistan, the BLA leadership is held by Balaach’s brother instead blame the myriad of armed groups operating Hyrbyair Marri, who is living in London after being in the region. granted political asylum in the U.K. After the 2006 military operation that killed 79-year-old tribal leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti in his mountain hideout, his 8 World Focus September 2017 grandson, Brahamdagh Bugti, led the Balochistan While the possibility of an independent Republican Party for several years from Afghanistan Balochistan appears unlikely in the short term, this until he moved to Geneva in 2010, where he applied possibility nevertheless deserves attention as a factor for political asylum. Pakistan sticks to the narrative associated with the incremental decay of the Pakistani that the BRP is the political wing of the state, which could be, and historically has been, armed Balochistan Republican Army. revealed in sudden, unexpected developments. One such development was the loss at partition in 1947 of Mainly based in Balochistan´s southernmost Kashmir, destined in the minds of Pakistan’s pre- Makran region, the Balochistan Liberation Front is partition leaders to become an integral part of the also among the most active Baloch armed groups. new Pakistani state. Another was the 1971 loss of It’s led by Dr Allah Nazar, a former student leader East Pakistan, which became the independent state and gynaecologist who is the only high-profile Baloch of Bangladesh after a conflict with the central state insurgent commander currently fighting on the ground. much shorter than Balochistan’s. Separation Nazar and his group is against the construction of the Indicators Certain precipitating indicators or highway road to Gwadar’s deep water port, a multi- developments would precede Balochistan’s billion dollar investment in the China-Pakistan separation. Economic Corridor, which the Baloch fear may alter the fragile demographic balance in the region by A Baloch political and military front united in attracting foreign workers while local families are a separatist objective would vastly enhance the displaced. The senior commander called on “all those credibility of Baloch grievances and goals, making it multinationals trying to settle and steal the resources a true nationalist movement more able to overcome of Balochistan on behalf of colonial empires” to cease Islamabad’s colonial divide-and-rule tactics. A united their activities. Lashkar-e-Balochistan is strategically Baloch movement would be able to undermine the deployed in central Balochistan. The armed Pakistani narrative that the province’s discontent movement is reportedly linked to the Mengal tribe, stems from a few disagreeable tribes conducting but they have remained silent over the last years, terrorist and criminal activities. The return of exiled their last attack being two bomb blasts in Lahore and Baloch nationalist leaders might indicate heightened Karachi in 2012. Very little is still known about or widespread popular support for the movement. the Baloch Republican Guard, one of the last groups Most prominent Baloch separatist leaders have left to appear on stage. Allegedly operating on the border South Asia to avoid death or detention at the hands with neighbouring Sindh province. of Pakistani security forces. They now primarily reside in Europe. As per Jamison C. Heinkel and As per Malik Siraj Akbar, a Balochistan Richard deVillafranca, Direct Outside Intervention analyst based in Washington DC, that tribal loyalties Direct foreign intervention in response to the Baloch among the insurgents have progressively diminished conflict or on behalf of the Baloch by one or multiple over the years. Back in the 1970s a Baloch insurgent countries would further raise the probability of would mostly be someone who was loyal to his tribal Balochistan’s separation.CPEC has bolstered chief and doing what his tribal boss had asked him to Pakistan’s resolve to remain in firm control of do. Today are many educated young boys from middle Balochistan. Yet there is little evidence to suggest class families. He is of the view that since some of that the importance of these projects to Pakistan has the organizations operate in certain geographical had any effect on Pakistan’s strategy toward its unruly locations, they are likely to have most of their activists province and its grievances. During the mid-2000s, from the tribes that are in majority in that area. BRA Baloch insurgents attacked the Chinese presence in is likely to have more Bugtis than the BLA while Gwadar, and currently they threaten CPEC projects. LeB is more likely to have more Mengals as compared to other organizations. However, today there is a lot Afghanistan more cross participation than in the past. There has In the nineteenth century, the Great Britain pursued been little international attention towards their and kept struggling for ‘forward policy’ in Asia and movement. Russia as a ‘great power’ in the region annexed Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas 9 Central Asian countries and was moving toward South The Gandamak Agreement: Following the second Asia. Afghanistan turned to be maneuvering ground Anglo-Afghan war (1878), the British forces toppled between East and West blocks. After the defeating down Shir Ali Khan kingdom (1873 – 78) and installed of the British India in the first Anglo-Afghan war first Yaqubi Khan (1879 – 80) – with whom the (1838), Britain occupied Afghanistan in the second Gandamak treaty was signed – and later Abdul Anglo-Afghan (1878) war sparked by the coercive Rahman Khan (1880 – 1901). During the war, and intractable arrival of the Russian delegation to Afghanistan lost Baluchistan and Quetta to the British Kabul. Afghanistan became a ‘protectorate’ country India and, thus for the first time Afghanistan became of the British India following the ‘Gandamak Treaty’ a landlocked country. By signing the Gandamak in 1879. Afghanistan as a ‘buffer state’ between the agreement, Afghanistan lost her control on foreign ‘great game’ players came under the Russian attack relations and then needed the British India approval and annexed Panjdeh, the Northwest part of for any international interactions. The third and the Afghanistan in 1885. To block further expansion of tenth article of the agreement reads as follow: the Russia, British India first demarcated northern boundaries of Afghanistan with Russia in 1887 and Article 3: His Highness the Amir of later signed the Durand Line (brokered by the British Afghanistan [Yaqub Khan] and its dependencies foreign secretary Mortimer Durand and Amir – agree to conduct his relations with Foreign States in Leader – Abdul Rahman of Afghanistan), which accordance with the advice and wishes of the British delineated the south, southeast and east borders of Government. His Highness the Amir will enter into Afghanistan in 1893. no engagements with Foreign States, and will not take up arms against any Foreign State, except with the The Durand Line, which splits Pashtuns tribe, concurrence of the British Government. On these ignited local people to attack and burn the British conditions, the British Government will support the Boundary Commission in Wana, today’s North Amir against any foreign aggression with money, Waziristan of Pakistan in 1894 and the unrest spread arms, or troops, to be employed in whatsoever manner across the Durand Land or ‘Pashtun-belt’ in 1897 the British Government may judge best for this (Northwest Pakistan and Southeast Afghanistan) and purpose. Article 10: … the British Government agrees Britain deployed 60,000 troops to suppress the to pay to His Highness the Amir and to his successors turbulence. The successor of Abdul Rahman – his an annual subsidy of six lakhs [600,000] of Rupees. son – Amir Habibullah renewed the Durand Line agreement in 1905. Following the war for liberation After the defeat in war, The King Shir Ali in 1919, the British India recognized the independency Khan fled to the northern part of the Afghanistan of Afghanistan in an agreement, where Amanallah and passed away there. The British India approached Khan – later the King – agreed upon his father’s the King family members and appointed Yaqub Khan (Habibullah) agreement of 1905. – son of Shir Ali Khan – as a leader and he signed the Gandamak agreement thereby Afghanistan During the India Partition (1947), Afghan became a ‘protectorate’ country of the British India. government expressed her concern about the Durand When tribal armed people attacked and killed some Line first to the U.K. and later cast a negative vote British soldiers in their camp near the Kabul, the when Pakistan was joining U.N. membership in 1948. British India replaced Yaqub Khan by Abdul Rahman Two years later after the establishment of the Pakistan Khan in 1880. Therefore, it can be argued that this is (July 1949) the Afghan parliament unanimously a unilateral agreement where the stronger side passed a resolution nullifying the covenants signed achieved and imposed their demands and also offered by Afghanistan and British India and declared the incentives (cash) to the ‘protectorate’ to comply. The Durand Line a ‘bogus and fictitious’ border. Pakistan Durand Line, signed on 12th of November 1893, that claims as a successor of the British India has sparked widespread unrest across the Line, which been dominating the Durand Line since 1947 and sees explicitly meant that the people (Pashtuns) denounced the ‘frontier’ as de jure border. after they learned about the agreement in 1894 and 1897, so the agreement was less applicable in 10 World Focus September 2017 practice. In the agreement, more vague terminology made the Amir [Habibullah] agree, they later released has been used, for instance, instead of ‘boundary’ a and started the payments.” The Vienna Convention word ‘frontier’ has been used which has different on the law of treaty nullifies an agreement that has meaning as Bijan defined ‘frontier’ “refers to other been procured by the threat or use of the force. Article grades of border” and the word “boundary refers to 52 of the Convention (1969) reads “A treaty is void if international sovereign borders’. Besides that, as the its conclusion has been procured by the threat or use preamble of the agreement reads, “both His Highness of force in violation of the principles of international Amir and the Government of India are desirous of law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations.” settling and of fixing the limit of their respective Here it is arguable whether the Britain has or not spheres of influence”. It is assumed that this violated the international principles. The British India agreement was more intended to define the ‘spheres has offered money in both agreements with of influence’ not the border of the sovereignty. Afghanistan; the Gadamak and the Durand Line. A part of article 7th of the Durand Line agreement says Article four of the agreement entails the “… to mark their sense of the friendly spirit in which demarcation of the borderline, “The frontier line will His Highness the Amir has entered into these hereafter be laid down in detail and demarcated….” negotiations, the Government of India undertake to which has yet to be fully and properly demarcated. It increase by the sum of six lakhs of rupees a year the is highly likely that it is because of the residents’ subsidy of twelve lakhs now granted to His resentment live on either side of the border, “the Highness.” Meanwhile, the international law Pashtun themselves resent their arbitrary separation denounces corruption and explicitly says that treaty between two countries, which has reduced their procured through corruption is invalid. Article 50 of [British India and then Pakistan] capacity to exercise Vienna convention reads, “If the expression of a political power”. Besides that, Durand Line also State’s consent to be bound by a treaty has been divided Baluch (who live now in a joint-geography procured through the corruption of its representative separated among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran) directly or indirectly by another negotiating State, the people who were not consulted about the Line, as State may invoke such corruption as invalidating its Miraki argues that, “international law requires all consent to be bound by the treaty.” parties that are affected by any agreement wherein border demarcation are set to be party to the As a normal procedure of a treaty, bilateral agreement, otherwise the agreement does not hold or any other multilateral and international agreements legality.” Lacking the exclusive participation may go through different steps; signing of a treaty, question the legitimacy of the treaty. ratification in parliament and publishing for public. Afghanistan in 1890s had monarchy system, where The King Abdul Rahman as mentioned before she did not have a parliament or any other parallel was appointed and installed by the British India and authoritative structure to approve or veto the King the Gandamak agreement made Afghanistan as a orders. On the contrary, the United Kingdom had a ‘protectorate’ state. So, here it seems less likely that parliament, but neither their parliament ratified the the King could act independently vis-à-vis British Durand Line agreement nor they published it in an India, a senior researcher Abdul Rashid quoted in official gazette. Besides that, all international ‘RSCA Journal’ saying “he [Abdul Rahman] was agreements are supposed to be registered in United forced to accept and sign the Durand Line, he was Nations, where either the U.N. itself or any other warned to be replaced if he fails to comply with the country can be a depository, however; the Durand plan [Durand Line]”. It can be further argued that Line agreement has yet to be registered and has no the successor of the Abdul Rahman also did not depository. These are some other applications that consensually sign the agreement, “His son the Durand Line lacks.Pakistan assumes herself as [Habibullah] declined to come to India and obey the a successor of the British India. This succession seems terms [of the Durand Line] so the British India very open to be questioned. Before the occupation suspended the payment of 1,200,000 rupees (Indian of the subcontinent of India by the Britain, Pakistan currency) and later they [British] came to Kabul and did not exist. In other words, the U.K. occupied the Pakistan, Afghanistan & Balochistan: The Disturbed Areas 11