Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler Citation King, Gary, Ori Rosen, Martin Tanner, and Alexander F. Wagner. 2008. Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler. Journal of Economic History 68(4): 951-996. Published Version http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022050708000788 Permanent link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3443107 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of-use#LAA Share Your Story The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Submit a story . Accessibility THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY VOLUME 68 DECEMBER 2008 NUMBER 4 Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler ! GARY KING, ORI ROSEN, MARTIN TANNER, AND ALEXANDER F. WAGNER The enormous Nazi voting literature rarely builds on modern statistical or economic research. By adding these approaches, we find that the most widely accepted existing theories of this era cannot distinguish the Weimar elections from almost any others in any country. Via a retrospective voting account, we show that voters most hurt by the depression, and most likely to oppose the government, fall into separate groups with divergent interests. This explains why some turned to the Nazis and others turned away. The consequences of Hitler’s election were extraordinary, but the voting behavior that led to it was not. H ow did free and fair democratic elections lead to the extraordinary antidemocratic Nazi Party winning control of the Weimar Republic? The profound implications of this question have led “Who voted for Hitler?” to be the most studied question in the history of voting behavior research. Indeed, understanding who voted for Hitler is !The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 68, No. 4 (December 2008). © The Economic History Association. All rights reserved. ISSN 0022-0507. Gary King is David Florence Professor of Government, Department of Government, Harvard University, Institute for Quantitative Social Science, 1737 Cambridge Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. E-mail: [email protected]. Ori Rosen is Associate Professor, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, Bell Hall 221, El Paso, TX 79968. E-mail: [email protected]. Martin Tanner is Professor of Statistics, Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208. E-mail: [email protected]. Alexander F. Wagner is Swiss Finance Institute Assistant Professor of Finance, Swiss Banking Institute, University of Zurich, Plattenstrasse 14, CH-8032 Zurich, Switzerland. E-mail: [email protected]. Our thanks go to Colin Flint, Jürgen Falter, Mo Fiorina, and Josh Tucker for data and other materials; to Eric Dickson, Jamie Holmes, Kira Petersen, and Alison Post for many discussions and superb research assistance; to Jim Alt, William Brustein, Colin Flint, Mark Kishlansky, Charlie Maier, and John O’Loughlin for helpful comments; editors C. Knick Harley and Philip T. Hoffman and the anonymous referees for much help in improving the article. We thank Christin Forstinger for support from the early days of this project. We are grateful for research support to NIA/NIH (grant P01 AG17625-01), NSF (grants SES-0112072 and IIS-9874747), the NCCR FINRISK, the University of Zurich’s Research Priority Program Finance and Financial Markets, and the Swiss Finance Institute. 951 952 King, Rosen, Tanner, and Wagner especially timely now, given the increase in radical and extremist par- ties in modern European elections. Yet, despite the overwhelming atten- tion, scholars, mostly from history, sociology, and political science, have treated these elections as unique events and comparison with other elections as mostly irrelevant. The Nazi voting literature rarely draws on the extensive economic voting behavior literature or on modern sta- tistical methods. That does not make the Nazi voting literature wrong, and we do not think it is wrong. But it suggests that learning something new about these extraordinary events may be possible. In this article, we offer a perspective on these elections that builds on the voting be- havior literature and comparisons with other elections so that other scholars may be able to follow our example. We also introduce into this literature new methods of ecological inference designed specifically for this problem that increase the amount of information we can bring to bear on these venerable questions. Much of the current literature on the Weimar Republic treats the elections as a unique historical case, and in- deed the consequences of the elections were extraordinary. In contrast, once we account for the underappreciated heterogeneity of voters’ in- terests in these elections, we find that German voters responded in a fairly ordinary way, consistent with their interests and thus also consis- tent with the dominant pattern of findings about democratic elections in other countries and time periods. Although the limits of the available evidence generate considerable uncertainties in all analyses including those presented here, our research suggests a number of new conclusions. First, one of the leading theories in the literature—that the Nazis were a “catchall” party, because the swing in their favor occurred roughly uniformly across many different social groups—misses the fact that most elections from numerous coun- tries display essentially the same type of uniform partisan swing. As such, this theory, while not wrong, does not distinguish the Weimar elections from most others and so cannot be used to help explain what happened here. We instead find that an incentives-based retrospective voting account of this series of elections helps to organize a large col- lection of otherwise confusing facts. In particular, we find that the groups most hurt by the disastrous economic depression did not have homogeneous interests, and as a result did not behave in the same way. Those who were unemployed or at high risk of becoming unemployed gave disproportionate support to the Communists or, to a lesser extent, to the Social Democrats (in Protestant precincts), for good reason, whereas those who were hurt by the economy but were at little risk of unemployment—such as self-employed shopkeepers and professionals, domestic employees, and helping family members—constituted the Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior 953 groups that gave the most disproportionate support to the Nazis. Only the failure of Nazi agricultural policy to address the specific preferences of farmers in southern Germany, as well as the powerful economic in- centives provided by the Catholic Church in favor of the Catholic Zen- trum party persuaded some of the working poor, in particular, domestic and peasant workers, to remain loyal to the Zentrum. Where no such additional incentives were at work, namely, in the Protestant regions of Weimar Germany, the full power of the incentives for the working poor made them the key constituency for the Nazis, with vote shares for the Nazis being many percentage points higher than the national swing. By contrast, other social groups in Protestant precincts did not vote for the Nazis more than average. We begin with a description of the historical Nazi voting literature, from a modern perspective, summarize our main substantive arguments, and compare our approach to others. We then describe our data, discuss our new methods, and introduce the specific methodological problem we address. We then present our empirical results and conclude. THE HISTORICAL NAZI VOTING BEHAVIOR LITERATURE From very early on, the paradox of a democratic system leading to the rise of an extreme antidemocratic party, and ultimately the end of democracy in a country, has generated great scholarly interest.1 The lit- erature as a whole, however, remains unsatisfying even to its contribu- tors.2 To understand the main issues and puzzles in the research on vot- ing in the Weimar Republic, we summarize in this section the dominant historical explanations that have been offered. All teach us a great deal but each is nevertheless incomplete in at least some respects. These ex- planations include group-based theories and catchall theories. Group-Based Theories The literature offers two categories of group-based theories. The ear- liest is mass society theory, inspired by Javier Ortega y Gasset and oth- ers, who see extremist movements as having their strongest appeal to individuals on the social periphery.3 Supporters of this approach focus on the irrational, anti-intellectual, and visceral nature of the Nazi appeal 1 Geiger, “Panik” and Soziale Schichtung; Mierendorff, “Gesicht”; Palyi, “Economic Founda- tions”; and Stephan, “Grenzen,” “Parteien,” and “Reichstagswahlen.” 2 For a recent review, see Heilbronner and Mühlberger, “Achilles’ Heel.” 3 Ortega y Gasset, Revolt; Loomis and Beegle, “Spread”; Bendix, Social Stratification; Korn- hauser, Politics; and Arendt, Origins. 954 King, Rosen, Tanner, and Wagner and they argue that this group was mostly composed of nonvoters.4 Al- though this explanation is a favorite of political philosophers, recent studies have only rarely subjected it to empirical tests in real voting data. The second category of group-based theories is class theory. First championed by Seymour Lipset and his followers, class theory holds that a different democratic and extremist form of political expression forms for each social group.5 The result is a set of idiosyncratic and group-specific “radicalization hypotheses.”6 However, scholars disagree as to the principles by which each class formulates or adopts each pos- sible extremist expression. According to Lipset, “the ideal-typical Nazi voter in 1932 was a middle-class, self-employed Protestant who lived either on a farm or in a small community.”7 In contrast, Richard Hamil- ton concluded that the upper classes (white-collar and self-employed) constituted core Nazi electoral support.8 Researchers also argue that the Angestellte, an important component of white-collar workers, were caught between the simultaneous (and partially self-contradictory) push of the NSDAP towards a modern world and a conservative society.9 There is yet another variant of the radicalization or class theory hy- pothesis. Critics of the lower middle-class thesis emphasize that al- though many in the lower middle class suffered from the Great Depres- sion, not all of them became Nazi supporters. Walter Burnham provides an explanation in two parts: The Catholic Church armed some with enough social integration to keep them from falling prey to Nazi cam- paign appeals.10 Others, such as the German lower middle class in Prot- estant areas were more on their own and thus more prone to increasing support for the Nazis. A scholar writing today would probably say the same thing in different words, explaining that “social capital” in the Weimar Republic, in the form of confessional or religious ties, pro- tected some groups from Nazi party appeals.11 Although many studies 4 Rule, Theories, p. 93. 5 See Lipset, Political Man; and Hagtvet, Theory. 6 Falter and Zintl, “Economic Crisis.” 7 Lipset, Political Man, p. 149. Lipset’s view that the Nazi vote was an aberration of middle- class political behavior was the first to challenge the Bendix mass society theory, but this debate came to an abrupt end when Bendix acquiesced to Lipset’s position in their joint article: “Lipset has convinced Bendix that the shift of nonvoters to the Nazis occurred only in 1933, whereas in the preceding elections middle-class extremists predominated among Nazi supporters” (p. 12). Miller and Robbins, “Who did Vote,” argue that this capitulation was premature. See also Jones, German Liberalism. 8 Hamilton, Who Voted for Hitler. 9 Prinz, “Der unerwünschte Stand” and “Angestellte.” 10 Burnham, “Political Immunisation.” 11 Putnam, Bowling Alone. Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior 955 support this theory, others show that the identification of the Catholic and industrial proletariat sections of the German population was not complete.12 In other words, almost any variant of an explanation that divides vot- ers into social groups has been claimed to support class theory. This point does not necessarily make any of the variants wrong. It does sug- gest, however, that “class theory” is more of a framework than a theory (that is, it is not an idea that could in principle be wrong). It is also un- satisfying in that it seems to lead to complicated ad hoc explanations that do not help simplify anything. Such simplification is not always possible, but it is helpful when reasonable. Catchall Theories Many scholarly and popular accounts subscribe to the view that the Nazi party is best understood as a “catchall” protest party that attracts votes from a wide band of the social-class spectrum, at least in the elec- tion of 1930 or in the July 1932 election at the latest.13 Scholars who prefer this view do not believe that everyone voted for the Nazis to the same extent, but there is considerable emphasis on how support came from all corners of society, and how all groups moved in the same di- rection and nearly the same magnitude.14 Peter Stachura, for example, finds that the Mittelstand thesis regarding the social composition of the NSDAP before 1933 has been superseded in the literature by the argu- ment that the party was socially heterogeneous, with a substantial presence of the working class and other groups.15 12 Falter, Social Foundations; Heberle, “Political Movements”; Brown, “Nazi Vote”; and Childers, Nazi Voter. 13 See Childers, Nazi Voter; Falter, Hitlers Wähler; Kele, Nazis and Workers; Paul, Aufstand der Bilder; and Schieder, “Die NSDAP vor 1933.” Falter and Hänisch, “Wahlerfolge,” reach similar conclusions for Austria, although the NSDAP never obtained much support there as long as free elections were still taking place. 14 See the detailed account in Brustein, Logic; Mommsen, “Verspielte Freiheit,” chapter 9; and Hartung, “Geschichte.” 15 Stachura, “National Socialism.” The observation that the Nazis tried to tailor their cam- paign to specific groups has led some to focus on the NSDAP’s superior propaganda machinery. For example, Ohr employed a detailed dataset for four Kreise in Hessen to show that propa- ganda and political meetings had a positive effect on the massive NSDAP vote increase, medi- ated by what Ohr calls the “nationalistic potential” of a community; Ohr, Nationalsozialistische Propaganda and “Nationalsozialistische Versammlungspropaganda.” However, in other con- texts, Popkin, Reasoning Voter, demonstrates that the inference that voters are manipulated by commercials and speeches, while plausible at first sight, is often incorrect or at least needs to be enhanced by reference to the party’s policies and voters’ interests. 956 King, Rosen, Tanner, and Wagner A different variant of the catchall protest party perspective is the “mixed hypothesis” by Jürgen Falter and Reinhard Zintl.16 This view, carefully presented by Falter, was that up to the last election on March 5, 1933, the NSDAP was a kind of people’s or mass integration party whose core supporters were the middle classes, but which could (at least since 1925) also count on support from blue-collar workers and the up- per classes.17 This view has also been put forward by Eberhard Kolb, who subscribes to the notion that the NSDAP had its main support in the lower middle classes, but at the same time agrees with Hamilton that the upper and upper middle class were important constituents of the Na- zis.18 Therefore, according to Falter, the NSDAP cannot be truly charac- terized as purely a movement of the middle class. Rather, it was a “Volkspartei des Protests” (People’s Party of Protest). The catchall perspective has several weaknesses. First, to a large ex- tent, catchall theory also applies to most groups and almost all big or growing parties in almost all countries, and so it does not show how the Weimar elections were distinctive. The description may be accurate, but it does not provide an explanation for the outcome. The notion of a catchall party arises from a specific empirical observation that in fact holds fairly universally. The idea begins with the fact that voter support for political parties can always be decomposed into national swings for or against individual parties and variation around those swings across local districts or social groupings. A strong pattern of democratic elec- toral politics, then, is that the two sources of variation are almost always unrelated. In other words, when one party receives x percent more of the vote nationwide, almost all districts and almost all social groups give x percent more of their vote to the party as well, plus or minus some random error.19 The fundamental problem with catchall theories and with observa- tions of uniform partisan swing is that neither necessarily says anything about which individuals voted for the Nazis. Recognizing these pat- terns, however, does enable us to isolate a dominant feature that might otherwise confound the identification of the patterns we seek to under- stand. The key to understanding what was special about the elections in 16 Falter and Zintl, “Economic Crisis.” 17 Falter, Hitlers Wähler. 18 Kolb, Weimar Republic. 19 The idea that partisan swing is approximately uniform across geographic districts dates to Butler, “Appendix.” It has been generalized to a stochastic model that fits electoral data in Gel- man and King, “Unified Method,” for two parties and Katz and King, “Statistical Model,” for multiple parties. For an example of the notion that citizen support for political candidates shifts uniformly across most social groups in the same direction and extent as the national swing, see Gelman and King, “American Presidential.” Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior 957 Weimar Germany is to calculate properly the swings for all groups and to explain how each deviates from the nationwide average. This proce- dure, which we implement below, removes the gross, ordinary features of the election, and leaves the distinctive aspects to explain. As we show, what is distinctive about the Weimar elections is the particular incentive structure of the voters, which helps explain voting behavior there in much the same “ordinary” terms as elections in other times and places. The same procedure is productive, for the same reasons, in analyzing most elections. AN ALTERNATIVE ARGUMENT We follow the literature and take for granted that support for the Nazi party swung, as it did, from less than 3 percent of eligible voters in the December 1924 election to 31.1 percent in July 1932, 26.5 percent in November 1932, and 38.7 percent in March 1933.20 Although this par- ticular swing is obviously unique to Weimar Germany, we expect (and find) that this swing, like almost all national swings, affects the majority of social groups in almost the same way. The interesting question is which groups voted for the Nazis differently than the average. In an- swering this question, we focus on incentives in voting for the Nazis. Consequently, although our results suggest that the economic voting approach explains much variation of the voting for the other parties as well, we do not claim to present a unified and complete picture of vot- ing in the Weimar Republic. We do not say much about the causes of the swing itself, about which an enormous amount has been written.21 After the extreme hyperinflation of the years 1922/23, the years 1924– 1928 were characterized by an economic boom and are frequently re- ferred to as the “Golden Twenties.” However, already in 1927 and 1928, the leading indicators were beginning to show the first signs of a recession.22 In contrast to Great Britain, France, and the United States, the German slump began with a gradual slide into depression. One highly contested hypothesis about the source of this slide is that high la- bor costs implied an “unavoidable” policy of deflation, while others see the cause in high interest rates and the unfortunate intervention of the 20 See O’Loughlin, “Electoral Geography,” for an excellent description of the swings and spa- tial patterns. 21 See Barkai, Wirtschaftssystem, for a comprehensive analysis and Balderston, Economics, for a succinct summary of the Weimar economy in the years between the wars. 22 James, Economic Reasons. 958 King, Rosen, Tanner, and Wagner German Reichsbank.23 Whatever the exact mechanism, the national product reached its peak in 1928 and declined in the following years, leading to the loss of more than a quarter of GNP between 1929 and 1932. Unemployment started to rise, bankruptcy was rampant among firms, and the explicit policy of deflation started to show effects beginning in 1930. These economic circumstances would be enough in elections in any other country to cause a swift exit from the ruling or established parties, and from moderate opposition parties to even more extreme opponents of the government as seemed to occur in Weimar Germany. In addition, Weimar Germany had a very young parliamentary system at the time, and so voter loyalties to the political system, if they would have existed in the face of such dire economic times, would likely not have been suf- ficiently entrenched to slow the electoral swings.24 We therefore regard the national swing itself, and the fact that most groups and geographic areas shifted in roughly uniform amounts in the same direction as the national swing, as a fact common to democracies, not something that explains this election in particular. Instead, we look for what is unusual about group behavior in these elections in the same way as we would in any other election. We therefore ask which voter groups gave dispro- portionate support to the Nazis, support clearly more than or less than the national swing. We consider two centrally important groupings, both of which have been studied separately, but not in the way we combine them. We con- sider the important distinction between Protestant and Catholic regions; no analysis of the Weimar Republic can ignore the differences between these regions, though scholars have emphasized them for different rea- sons. While some have studied whether Catholicism per se was less compatible with the Nazi movement, we emphasize the fact that the 23 See the discussion between Borchardt, “Zwangslagen und Handlungsspielräume”; Holtfre- rich, “Zu hohe Löhne”; von Kruedener, Economic Crisis; Ritschl, “Zu hohe Löhne”; and Bor- chardt, Economic Causes. Also see Voth, “High Wages” and “Bang.” 24 Indeed, consistent with Hibbs, “Economic Outcomes,” some scholars have studied macro- economic variables and aggregate voting results for evidence about the effect of the inflation and unemployment of the 1920s on democracy as a form of government. See Palyi, “Economic Foundations,” for an early account in this vein. Hill, Butler, and Lorenzen, “Inflation and the Destruction,” argue that the great inflation of 1919–1923, in particular, laid the groundwork for the destruction of democracy in Germany. Frey and Weck, “Arbeitslosigkeit,” report a positive association between the NSDAP vote at Reichstags elections and unemployment, but see Falter et al., “Arbeitslosigkeit tatsächlich.” More recently, van Riel and Schram, “Weimar Economic Decline,” have estimated a version of Kirchgässner’s “Rationality, Causality” model of gov- ernment popularity and find that lower real wages and higher unemployment significantly de- pressed government popularity, thus making room for the Nazi party to step into the vacuum. Our results, although consistent with some of these macro-level results, are more focused on in- dividual-level behavior. Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior 959 Catholic Church supported especially the Zentrum and related parties through direct and indirect economic incentives. Moreover, we find that the agricultural policies of the Nazis did not suit well the preferences of the people living in southern and western Germany, that is, the Catholic regions. The second dimension is that we also retain the focus on social groups common in both the Nazi and political science voting behavior literatures. The reason for this focus in both literatures is that different social groups tend, in most elections, to vote in clearly recognizable and predictable ways, at least relative to one another. However, for both the religious dimension as well as the social one, we use a different orga- nizing principle from the culturally based explanations common in the Nazi voting literature. Cultural explanations, which make arguments about the propensities of particular social groups to prefer certain par- ties at specific times, are often “trivially” true or hard to disprove be- cause they seem capable of fitting almost any observed behavior. The economic voting behavior literature has moved away from this style of explanation towards one based more on economic and other incentives. We follow this approach, and also William Brustein, who applied it in the context of who joined the Nazi party as members (rather than vot- ers).25 We wish to explore how far the incentive-based explanation can take us, but we do not view this approach as the only way to study Weimar Germany (or, for that matter, any other election). From the perspective of incentives, the most obvious answer to the question of which groups gave disproportionate support to the Nazis is those who were hurt most by the severe economic depression. In even simpler terms, to answer the question of who voted for the Nazis, we might look for voter groups most likely to want to “throw the bums out.” Although in retrospect it turned out that the “bums” voted into of- fice through the elections leading up to 1933 were far worse than those in office previously, even the political science voting behavior literature often assumes that most voter decisions are based on judgments about incumbents, about whom voters have behavioral evidence, instead of about challengers who can convey little but costless promises. A more formal version of this idea is “retrospective voting,” which holds that citizens would like to base voting decisions on their prospective evalua- tions of how candidates are likely to behave in office. However, the 25 See Brustein, Logic. Stögbauer, “Radicalisation,” while sidestepping inferences about indi- vidual-level behavior, also provides valuable insights into Nazi voting behavior from a similar perspective.