Oral Arguments and Decision Making on the United States Supreme Court SUNY series in American Constitutionalism Robert J.Spitzer,editor Oral Arguments and Decision Making on the United States Supreme Court Timothy R.Johnson State University of New York Press Cover photo:Franz Jantzen,Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States. Published by State University of New York Press,Albany © 2004 State University of New York All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission.No part of this book may be stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including electronic,electrostatic, magnetic tape,mechanical,photocopying,recording,or otherwise without the prior permission in writing of the publisher. For information,address State University of New York Press, 90 State Street,Suite 700,Albany,NY 12207 Production by Judith Block Marketing by Susan Petrie Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Johnson,Timothy Russell. Oral arguments and decision making on the United States Supreme Court / Timothy R.Johnson p.cm.— (SUNY series in American Constitutionalism) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-7914-6103-3 (hardcopy : alk paper) 1. United States.Supreme Court—Rules and practice. 2. Forensic orations— United States. 3. Judgments—United States. 4. Judicial process—United States. I. Title. II. Series. KF8742.J64 2004 347.73'2651—dc22 2003059535 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For Julie,Alexi,and Aidan Contents Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Chapter 2: Oral Arguments as an Information-Gathering Tool 21 Chapter 3: Oral Arguments and Coalition Formation 57 Chapter 4: Conference,Opinion Writing,and Oral Arguments 71 Chapter 5: Oral Arguments and Decisions on the Merits 93 Chapter 6: Conclusions and Implications 125 Appendix 1: Data Selection 133 Appendix 2: Data Reliability 137 Appendix 3: Example of Justice Powell’s Oral Argument Notes from Chapter 3 139 Notes 141 References 157 Cases Cited or in the Sample 167 Index 171 vii Tables Table 2.1 Issue Types Used to Code Litigant Briefs,AmicusBriefs, and Oral Argument Transcripts 33 Table 2.2 Issue Areas Supporting Hypothesized Court Focus 34 Table 2.3 Types of Information Provided to the Supreme Court in Litigant and AmicusBriefs 37 Table 2.4 The Focus of the Court’s Questions during Oral Arguments by Issue Area and Source of Information 40 Table 2.5 Individual Justice’s Behavior during Oral Arguments 53 Table 3.1 Variables Affecting Justice Powell’s Decision to Note his Colleagues’Questions and Comments during Oral Arguments 63 Table 3.2 Negative Binomial Regression Estimates of Justice Powell’s Decision to Note his Colleagues’Questions and Comments during Oral Arguments 65 Table 3.3 Logit Estimates of the Propensity for Justice Powell and Colleague to Join the Same Coalition 68 Table 4.1 The Origin of Information Discussed by the Supreme Court during Conference Discussions 78 Table 4.2 References to Orally Argued Issues by Individual Justices during Conference Discussions 80 Table 4.3 References to Policy during Supreme Court Conference Discussions 82 Table 4.4 References to External Actors during Supreme Court Conference Discussions 86 ix