Opportunities for Mass Market Demand Response to Provide Ancillary Services Rob Pratt Pacific Northwest National Laboratory DOE OE/EERE Workshop [email protected] Washington, DC October 2011 with contributions from Dave Najewicz, GE Appliances What do We Mean by “Mass Market” DR? “Mass market” suggests mass distribution of demand response (DR) devices with a “one-size fits all” character Mass distribution could be Consumer-driven purchases, with or without utility/grid subsidy Wide-scale deployment with utility purchase and installation Something in between Suggests opportunities for market transformation activities “One-size fits all” implies residential & small/medium commercial loads such as Thermostats (residential, unitary commercial) Elec. water heaters (or load controllers) Pool/spa pumps & elec. heaters (or load controllers) Smart appliances (clothes washers, dryers, dishwashers, refrigerators, freezers) Smart electronics? (computers, entertainment, printers, etc.) Other? 2 Mass Market DR-based Ancillary Services – Current Baseline Many utility programs, pilots, demos of DR focused on peak loads/prices, not ancillary services A few notable demos of ancillary services RLTech freq.-responsive refrigerators in UK (n=300/3000?) PG&E/LBNL – spinning reserves, Res. AC (n=250) SCE/LBNL/ORNL – spinning reserves, Res. AC (n=2000) Ecofys (BPA/NW utilities) – regulation for wind integration Water heaters (n=90), thermal storage furnaces (n=7), refrig. warehouses (n=5), commercial thermostats (n=?) PJM/Steffes – regulation, Res. water heater (n=1) GridWise Olympic Peninsula (BPA/NW utilities) – autonomous, under- freq. load shedding dryers & water heaters (n=50 ea.) NW Smart Grid Demo (ARRA) – numerous technologies PJM – regulation, PHEVs (3) Analysis/PNNL: PHEVs could supply all additional ancillary services for integration of 30% wind in Pacific NW 3 Technical Issues Spinning reserve & up regulation (decreasing loads) Similar to traditional demand response (relatively well understood) Curtailing all or part of load Slowing appliance processes Requires short-cycle protection for refrigerant cycles (AC, refrigerators, freezers, heat pumps) Down regulation (increasing loads) Difficulty is designing control strategies to increase loads Returning curtailed loads or slowed processes Shifting cycles coincident with reg. signal can be accomplished by shifting thermostat setpoints Only works on avg. in populations, not individual loads Desire to mimic droop characteristic of generator governor controls More/faster frequency deviation = more response 4 Value of Spinning Reserve from Residential DR Appliance Spinning Reserve Regulation Annual Avg. Equip- Average Machine Market Average Wholesale ment & Net Fraction of Cost of Energy Price, Capacity Market Install- Earned Appliance Load Resource Consump- Load- Available Value ation Value Available Provided tion Weighted Cost (kWh/yr) ($/MW-hr) (kW) ($/yr) ($/15-yr) ($) ($/15-yr) ($/MWh) Dryer 967 $9.08 100% 0.110 $8.78 $131.69 $20.00 $111.69 $1.38 Clothes Washer 139 $8.82 100% 0.016 $1.23 $18.42 $20.00 -$1.58 $9.58 Dishwasher 156 $9.53 100% 0.018 $1.48 $22.27 $20.00 $2.27 $8.55 Freezer 423 $7.97 100% 0.048 $3.37 $50.54 $20.00 $30.54 $3.15 Refrigerator 450 $8.08 100% 0.051 $3.64 $54.54 $20.00 $34.54 $2.96 Water Heater 2814 $8.77 100% 0.321 $24.67 $370.04 $100.00 $270.04 $2.37 Air Conditioner 2822 $4.24 100% 0.322 $11.97 $179.54 $100.00 $79.54 $2.36 Availability for spinning reserve assumed to be 100% of load (?) Marginal smart appliance, thermostat, and HW control costs are for illustration Engaging small loads requires very low costs Note clothes washer & dishwasher are not competitive at $20 cost Dryers, refrigerators, freezers, HW, AC better targets (?) 5 Five Characteristic Load Types re. Regulation Resource Load Type Control Strategy Availability Periodic, low duty-cycle: refrigerator*, shift cycles coincident with reg. 80% (?) freezer* signal Periodic, high duty-cycle: AC*, heat*, shift cycles + some curtailment 50% (?) HVAC* Continuous service: CW, dryer, DW slow rate of service, modulate 25% (?) Thermal storage: HW - no mixing valve slow rate of service, modulate 50% (?) Thermal storage: HW - with mixing also allows overheating 100% (?) valve * Includes small medium commercial: offices, retail, grocery, warehouses 6 Value of Regulation from Residential DR Appliance Regulation Annual Avg. Equip- Average Machine Market Average Wholesale ment & Net Fraction Cost of Energy Price, Capacity Market Install- Earned Appliance of Load Resource Consump- Load- Available Value ation Value Available Provided tion Weighted Cost (kWh/yr) ($/MW-hr) (kW) ($/yr) ($/15-yr) ($) ($/15-yr) ($/MWh) Dryer 967 $30.56 25% 0.028 $7.39 $110.88 $20.00 $90.88 $5.51 Clothes Washer 139 $30.18 25% 0.004 $1.05 $15.75 $20.00 -$4.25 $38.33 Dishwasher 156 $31.37 25% 0.004 $1.22 $18.34 $20.00 -$1.66 $34.22 Freezer 423 $31.27 80% 0.039 $10.58 $158.72 $20.00 $138.72 $3.94 Refrigerator 450 $31.25 80% 0.041 $11.25 $168.73 $20.00 $148.73 $3.70 Water Heater 2814 $30.57 50% 0.161 $43.01 $645.19 $100.00 $545.19 $4.74 Air Conditioner 2822 $39.02 50% 0.161 $55.05 $825.77 $100.00 $725.77 $4.72 Availability for regulation assumed (see previous page) Marginal smart appliance, thermostat, and HW control costs are for illustration Engaging small loads requires very low costs Note clothes washer & dishwasher are not competitive at $20 cost Dryers, refrigerators, freezers, HW, AC better targets (?) 7 End-Use Load Shapes (Summer Weekdays) Avg. U.S. Residential End Use Load Shapes for Summer Weekday 4.0 3.5 3.0 )e Lights & Conv m oh 2.5 Range & Oven / W Clothes Washer k ( d 2.0 Dishwasher a o L Air Conditioner 1.5 Water Heater Dryer Freezer 1.0 Refrigerator 0.5 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day (Ending) Metered end-use loads shapes (ELCAP) Scaled to current appliance standards & U.S. avg. AC, elec. heat & HW loads Appliances as a group are always available 8 (unlike AC, heating) Potential for Spinning Reserve from Res. DR Summer Res. Spinning Reserve Potential (U.S. Avg. Summer Day ) 90% Ref + Frz + Dry: 5% - 10% 80% d with HW: 9% - 19% a o L s70% sa lC with AC: 63% - 82% la60% itn Ref/Frz/Dry e dise50% +HW R .S.U40% +AC .g v A30% fo Res. Spinning Reserve Potential (U.S. Avg. Swing Day ) n oitc20% arF 45% 10% 40% 0% da o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1H0ou1r1 of1 D2ay1 3(En1d4in1g5) 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 L ssalC35% la30% itn ediseR25% R+HefW/Frz/Dry .S.U20% .g v A15% Swing Season fo n oitc10% a Ref + Frz + Dry: 13% - 22% rF 5% 0% with HW: 24% - 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day (Ending) 9 Potential for Regulation from Res. DR (Fraction Of Res. Class Load) Summer Residential Regulation Potential (U.S. Avg. Summer Day ) 45% Ref + Frz + Dry: 3% - 8% 40% d with HW: 5% - 10% a o L ssa35% lC with AC: 34% - 42% la30% itne Ref/Frz/Dry dise25% +HW R .S.U20% +AC .g v A15% fo Residential Regulation Potential (U.S. Avg. Swing Day ) n oitca10% 25% rF 5% d 0% aoL20% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ssa Hour of Day (Ending) lC la itne15% d Ref/Frz/Dry ise R +HW .S .U .g10% v A Swing Season fo n o itc 5% a Ref + Frz + Dry: 8% - 13% rF 0% with HW: 14% - 20% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of Day (Ending) 10