This document was developed by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology, & Logistics), Air Warfare. Suggested changes, corrections, or updates should be forwarded to: [email protected] i UAV Roadmap 2002 Executive Summary This document presents the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Roadmap for developing and employing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) over the next 25 years (2002 to 2027). DoD’s operational UAV systems include Predator, Hunter, Shadow, and Pioneer which have demonstrated tremendous capability in recent military operations. Developmental systems such as Global Hawk and many small UAV systems have also been put to the test in recent combat and combat support operations. Taken as a whole, this technology area offers profound opportunities to transform the manner in which this country conducts a wide array of military and military support operations. As with any new technology, there is naturally some reluctance to transition to a radically new capability. The need to fully demonstrate UAVs in combat and realistic training environments is critical to the migration of this technology. The overarching goal of this roadmap, in concert with the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG), is to define clear direction to the Services and Departments for a logical, systematic migration of mission capabilities to a new class of military tools. The goal is to address the most urgent mission needs that are supported both technologically and operationally by various UAV systems. Some missions can be supported by the current state of the art in unmanned technology where the capabilities of current or near- term DoD assets are sufficient and the risk to DoD members is relative low. Other mission areas, however, are in desperate need of additional capability and present high risk to aircraft crews. These mission areas, highlighted in this roadmap, will receive significant near-term effort by the Department. This Roadmap describes the Services’ ongoing UAV efforts (Section 2) and identifies the capabilities needed by theater commanders to which UAVs could be applied (Section 3), then couples them to emerging technologies (Section 4) and operational concepts (Section 5) that could enable these capabilities within the Services’ programs. The resulting Roadmap (Section 6) links capability-enhancing technologies to the life cycles of current and projected UAV programs. It is a map of opportunities, not point designs - a description of the future potential of UAVs. This Roadmap also provides a current snapshot of the status of the Department’s numerous unmanned aviation efforts. Having accurate “ground truth” on DoD’s various UAV programs and research efforts does not solve problems, but it does allow the Department to place emphasis in appropriate areas. One such area is standards, the framework of common requirements necessary to ensure forward/backward compatibility within systems and interoperability among them. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), as part of its oversight responsibilities for Defense-wide acquisition and technology, intends this Roadmap to be directive in such cross-program areas as standards development and other interoperability solutions. The U.S. military has a long and continuous history of involvement with UAVs, stretching back to 1917. UAVs had active roles in the Vietnam, Persian Gulf, and Balkans conflicts, as well as Afghan operations, providing critical reconnaissance in each. With recent technology improvements allowing more capability per pound, today’s UAVs are more sophisticated and capable than ever. As the military’s operational tempo has increased, so too has the employment of UAVs, to include performing a wider variety iii UAV Roadmap 2002 of missions than just reconnaissance. During the 1990s, DoD invested over $3 billion in UAV development, procurement, and operations; since 2000, it has invested another $1 billion and will likely invest over $10 billion by 2010. Today, the DoD has in excess of 90 UAVs in the field; by 2010, this inventory is programmed to quadruple. Ten years hence (2012), DoD will probably be operating F-16-size UAVs capable of supporting a variety of combat and combat support missions, including Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), Electronic Attack (EA), and possibly deep strike interdiction. It is also likely that vertical takeoff UAVs (rotary wing) capable of extremely long endurance (18-24 hours) will be in demonstration and limited production. Twenty-five years from now (2027), UAVs may exist with morphing airframes, able to optimize their shape for various missions and flight conditions with stretching skins and shape memory alloys permitting aerodynamic maneuvers impossible for manned aircraft. Control stations could evolve from a crew inside a multi-ton van to an individual wearing a suit tied into his own neuro-muscular system, seeing what the UAV’s sensors see through a head-mounted visor. The advantages offered by UAVs to the military commander are numerous, most notably in mission areas commonly categorized as “the dull, the dirty, and the dangerous.” In an era of decreasing force structure, UAVs are force multipliers that can increase unit effectiveness. For example, due to its vantage point, one unmanned sentry equipped with automated cuing algorithms and multiple sensors could survey the same area as ten (or more) human sentries (“the dull”). UAVs could reconnoiter areas contaminated with radiological, chemical or biological agents without risk to human life (“the dirty”). Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) could perform the high-risk suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) missions currently flown by manned EA-6s or F-16s (“the dangerous”) with less need for supporting aircraft. In such a role, UAVs would be potent force multipliers, releasing manned aircraft for other roles. The Office of the Secretary of Defense has identified 49 goals for unmanned aviation in this Roadmap that support the Department’s larger goals of fielding transformational capabilities, establishing joint standards, and controlling costs. Ten of these 49 goals (shown below) have priority and have been assigned an Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to oversee their accomplishment and a due date. These goals are consistent with the current DPG and will be further refined in the upcoming cycle. In some cases, goals addressed in this document have been directly cited in the DPG, such as the direction for development and demonstration of Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles. In many other cases, the goals to follow are at a detail level below that appropriate to the DPG. The DPG will always take precedence, however this document will be used to provide additional definition and direction for UAV and UCAV technology areas. These goals should be considered directive, and OSD, in conjunction with the Services and Defense Agencies will strive to develop, demonstrate, and operationally assess these capabilities in the timeframes indicated. Progress reports on each goal will be submitted by the respective OPRs during the first quarter of each fiscal year. 1. Develop and operationally assess for potential fielding a UCAV capable of performing several missions including SEAD/Strike/Electronic Attack; emphasize early fielding of an EA capability with growth to other missions. OPR: UCAV Joint Program Office (DARPA, USN, USAF). Due: FY10. iv UAV Roadmap 2002 2. Develop and demonstrate a tactical UAV-class aviation heavy fuel engine suitable for use in UAVs such as Shadow, Pioneer and A-160. Growth potential to larger UAVs in the Predator class including Extended Range Multi-Purpose and LEWK, and options for the small UAV class are also required. OPR: DARPA, USA, USN/USMC. Due: FY05/07. 3. OSD, Joint Staff, and the Services develop capability and/or capability- performance metrics (such as those in Section 4.1) to evaluate UAV program costs. Program managers should provide Joint Staff and OSD written justification at Milestone B and C reviews when these metrics are exceeded, and provide appropriate management organizations with options for reducing costs to align them with these metrics when this occurs. OPR: OSD. Due: FY03. 4. Demonstrate High Definition Television (HDTV) capability with real-time precision targeting capability on a UAV. OPR: NIMA, USN, USAF. Due: FY05. 5. Migrate all tactical (Shadow 200) and above UAVs to Common Data Link (CDL)- compatible formats for line-of-sight (LOS) and beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) communication. OPR: USAF, USN, USA. Due: FY06. 6. Investigate low Reynolds Number aerodynamics with a focus on improving digital flight control systems optimized for small UAVs (i.e., those having Reynolds numbers less than 1 million). OPR: OSD; USA, USN, USAF. Due: FY06. 7. Define a standard UAV interface providing critical situational awareness data and precise location data supporting airspace integration. OPR: OSD, USJFCOM. Due: FY04. 8. Coordinate revising FAA Order 7610.4 to replace the requirement for using the Certificate Of Authorization (COA) process for all UAVs with one for using the DD175 form for qualifying UAVs. OPR: USAF. Due: FY04. 9. Define security measures required for positive control of weapons employment on weaponized UAVs. OPR: USAF. Due: FY08. 10. Decrease the annual mishap rate of larger model UAVs to less than 20 per 100,000 flight hours by FY09 and less than 15 per 100,000 flight hours by FY15. OPR: USAF, USN, USA. Due: FY09/15. v UAV Roadmap 2002 Table of Contents List of Figures...................................................................................................................ix List of Tables....................................................................................................................xi 1.0 Introduction.................................................................................................................1 1.1 PURPOSE....................................................................................................................1 1.2 APPROACH.................................................................................................................1 1.3 SCOPE........................................................................................................................2 1.4 DEFINITIONS..............................................................................................................2 1.5 PROGRESS SINCE PREVIOUS ROADMAP......................................................................2 2.0 Current UAV Programs.............................................................................................5 2.1 OPERATIONAL UAV SYSTEMS...................................................................................6 2.1.1 MQ-1 Predator...................................................................................................6 2.1.2 RQ-2 Pioneer.....................................................................................................6 2.1.3 RQ-5 Hunter.......................................................................................................7 2.1.4 RQ-7 Shadow 200..............................................................................................7 2.2 DEVELOPMENTAL UAV SYSTEMS.............................................................................8 2.2.1 RQ-4 Global Hawk............................................................................................8 2.2.2 Broad Area Maritime Surveillance....................................................................8 2.2.3 RQ-8 Fire Scout.................................................................................................9 2.2.4 MQ-9 Predator B...............................................................................................9 2.2.5 Dragon Eye......................................................................................................10 2.2.6 Force Protection Aerial Surveillance System (FPASS)...................................10 2.2.7 Neptune............................................................................................................11 2.2.8 Air Force UCAV (X-45)...................................................................................11 2.2.9 UCAV-Navy (X-46/X-47).................................................................................12 2.2.10 UCAR.............................................................................................................13 2.2.11 Dragon Warrior.............................................................................................13 2.2.12 Program Summaries......................................................................................14 2.3 OTHER UAV SYSTEMS............................................................................................14 2.3.1 Residual UAV Systems.....................................................................................14 2.3.2 Concept Exploration UAV Systems..................................................................15 2.3.3 DARPA UAV Programs...................................................................................18 2.4 UAV FINANCIAL DATA...........................................................................................19 2.5 UAV PROLIFERATION..............................................................................................21 2.5.1 Foreign UAV Development..............................................................................21 2.5.2 Export Policy...................................................................................................22 3.0 Requirements.............................................................................................................25 3.1 HISTORICALLY VALIDATED UAV ROLES................................................................25 3.2 COMBATANT COMMANDER REQUIREMENTS FOR UAVS..........................................25 3.3 JROC-VALIDATED REQUIREMENTS FOR UAVS.......................................................27 4.0 Technologies..............................................................................................................29 4.1 PLATFORMS.............................................................................................................29 4.1.1 Propulsion........................................................................................................29 4.1.2 Survivability.....................................................................................................31 4.1.3 Cost Control.....................................................................................................32 vii UAV Roadmap 2002 4.2 PAYLOADS...............................................................................................................34 4.2.1 Sensors.............................................................................................................34 4.2.2 Communication Relay......................................................................................38 4.2.3 Weapons...........................................................................................................38 4.2.4 Cost Control.....................................................................................................39 4.3 COMMUNICATION....................................................................................................39 4.4 PROCESSORS............................................................................................................41 5.0 Operations.................................................................................................................45 5.1 OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS DEVELOPMENT...............................................................45 5.1.1 Army.................................................................................................................45 5.1.2 Navy and Marine Corps...................................................................................46 5.1.3 Air Force..........................................................................................................47 5.1.4 Joint/Other.......................................................................................................47 5.2 RELIABILITY............................................................................................................48 5.3 OPERATIONS AND SUPPORT.....................................................................................52 5.4 COOPERATIVE UAV FLIGHT....................................................................................53 5.5 TACTICAL CONTROL SYSTEM (TCS)........................................................................54 6.0 Roadmap....................................................................................................................55 6.1 UAV CAPABILITIES ROADMAP................................................................................55 6.2 UAV MISSIONS ROADMAP......................................................................................56 6.3 COMPARATIVE COSTS OF MANNED VS. UNMANNED AIRCRAFT...............................58 6.3.1 Development Costs...........................................................................................58 6.3.2 Procurement Costs...........................................................................................59 6.3.3 Operations & Support Costs............................................................................59 6.4 GOALS FOR UNMANNED AVIATION..........................................................................61 6.4.1 Platform Goals.................................................................................................61 6.4.2 Sensor Goals....................................................................................................61 6.4.3 Communication Goals.....................................................................................62 6.4.4 Technology Goals............................................................................................62 6.4.5 Small UAV Goals.............................................................................................62 6.4.6 Standards Goals...............................................................................................62 6.4.7 Airspace Goals.................................................................................................63 6.4.8 Task/Process/Post/Use Goals..........................................................................63 6.4.9 Weaponization Goals.......................................................................................63 6.4.10 Reliability Goals............................................................................................64 6.5 FUTURE DIRECTIONS................................................................................................64 Appendix A: Platforms...................................................................................................67 Appendix B: Sensors.......................................................................................................87 Appendix C: Communication........................................................................................99 Appendix D: Technology Migration............................................................................111 Appendix E: Small UAVs.............................................................................................127 Appendix F: Standards...............................................................................................135 Appendix G: Airspace..................................................................................................153 Appendix H: Task, Post, Process, and Use Considerations......................................165 Appendix I: Weapons...................................................................................................175 Appendix J: Reliability.................................................................................................185 viii UAV Roadmap 2002 List of Figures FIGURE 2.0-1: TIMELINE OF CURRENT AND PLANNED DOD UAV SYSTEMS.......................5 FIGURE 2.2-1: LOCATIONS OF U.S. MILITARY UAVS........................................................14 FIGURE 2.4-1: DOD ANNUAL FUNDING PROFILE FOR UAVS.............................................20 FIGURE 2.6-1: UAV MANUFACTURING COUNTRIES..........................................................21 FIGURE 3.2-1: IPL PRIORITIES LINKED TO UAV MISSIONS...............................................26 FIGURE 4.1-1: SPECIFIC FUEL CONSUMPTION TRENDS......................................................29 FIGURE 4.1-2: MASS SPECIFIC POWER TRENDS.................................................................30 FIGURE 4.1-3: PROPULSION/POWER TECHNOLOGY FORECAST..........................................30 FIGURE 4.1-4: UAV CAPABILITY METRIC: WEIGHT V. COST...........................................33 FIGURE 4.1-5: UAV PERFORMANCE METRIC: ENDURANCE V. COST..............................33 FIGURE 4.2-1: UAV PAYLOAD WEIGHT VS. ENDURANCE.................................................34 FIGURE 4.2-2: STILL IMAGERY SENSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST......................................35 FIGURE 4.2-3: MOTION/VIDEO IMAGERY SENSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST.....................35 FIGURE 4.2-4: RADAR IMAGER SENSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST....................................36 FIGURE 4.2-5: SIGINT SENSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST................................................36 FIGURE 4.2-6: MASINT SENSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST..............................................37 FIGURE 4.2-7: FORECAST SENSOR CAPABILITIES...............................................................37 FIGURE 4.3-1: AIRBORNE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY FORECAST.............................40 FIGURE 4.4-1: AUTONOMOUS CONTROL LEVEL TREND.....................................................41 FIGURE 4.4-2: PROCESSOR SPEED TREND..........................................................................42 FIGURE 4.4-3: PROCESSOR TECHNOLOGY FORECAST........................................................43 TABLE 5.2-1 SHOWS THE CALCULATED VALUES OF THESE FOUR METRICS FOR THE EARLY AND CURRENT VERSIONS OF THE PIONEER, HUNTER, AND PREDATOR.......................50 FIGURE 5.2-1: UAV MISHAP RATE TRENDS......................................................................50 FIGURE 5.2-2: DOD UAV MISHAP CAUSES........................................................................51 FIGURE 5.3-1: RELATIVE DEMAND IN ACTUAL VS. SIMULATED FLIGHT TRAINING...........52 FIGURE 6.1-1: UAV CAPABILITIES ROADMAP...................................................................56 FIGURE 6.2-1: UAV MISSIONS ROADMAP.........................................................................58 FIGURE A-1: PERFORMANCE PAYOFF OF A NOTIONAL COMBAT UAV UTILIZING TECHNOLOGIES FROM THE JETEC PHASE III GOALS..................................................75 FIGURE A-2: JETEC COST GOAL IN COMPARISON TO EXISTING SYSTEMS..........................76 FIGURE A-3: ENGINE EFFECTS ON TAKEOFF GROSS WEIGHT FOR A DESIRED MISSION ENDURANCE..............................................................................................................79 FIGURE A-4: SPECIFIC ENERGY CALCULATION.................................................................80 FIGURE A-5: AUTONOMOUS CAPABILITY LEVELS (ACLS).................................................84 FIGURE C-1: SUPPLY & DEMAND....................................................................................104 FIGURE C-2: MILITARY SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS FUTURE DIRECTION...................106 FIGURE D-1: MULTI-AREA INITIATIVES..........................................................................112 FIGURE D-2: PLATFORM RELATED: AERODYNAMICS & AIRFRAMES...............................113 FIGURE D-3: PLATFORM RELATED: MATERIALS.............................................................114 FIGURE D-4: PLATFORM RELATED: PROPULSION & POWER............................................115 FIGURE D-5: PLATFORM RELATED:SURVIVABILITY.........................................................116 FIGURE D-6: IHPTET AND VAATE PROGRAM GOALS AND TRENDS.............................117 FIGURE D-7: WEAPONS & TARGETING............................................................................119 ix UAV Roadmap 2002 FIGURE D-8: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: GENERAL.............................................................120 FIGURE D-9: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: IMINT.................................................................121 FIGURE D-10: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: MASINT...........................................................122 FIGURE D-11: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: SIGINT..............................................................122 FIGURE D-12: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: COMMUNICATION...............................................123 FIGURE D-13: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: MULIT-FUNCTION..............................................123 FIGURE D-14: PAYLOADS & SENSORS: RADAR...............................................................123 FIGURE D-15: CONTROL: GENERAL................................................................................125 FIGURE D-16: CONTROL: HEALTH MANAGEMENT/MIXED INITIATIVE/PLANNING & SUPPORT..................................................................................................................125 FIGURE D-17: CONTROL: AUTONOMY.............................................................................126 FIGURE E-1: UAV WINGSPAN VS. WEIGHT.....................................................................129 FIGURE G-1: JOINT FAA/OSD APPROACH TO REGULATING UAVS................................154 FIGURE G-2: US MILITARY UAV MISHAP RATES, 1986-2001.......................................155 FIGURE G-3: UAVS AND AIRSPACE CLASSES OF THE NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM......158 FIGURE H-1: TPPU-TRANSFORMING DCGS TO NET-CENTRICITY..................................165 FIGURE H-2: AIR FORCE’S DCGS (DCGS-AF)...............................................................167 FIGURE H-3: ARMY’S DCGS (DCGS-A)........................................................................168 FIGURE H-4: NAVY’S DCGS (ISR NET).........................................................................168 FIGURE H-5: USMC’S DCGS (MAGIS).........................................................................169 FIGURE H-6: DOD DCGS ENVISIONED STRUCTURE IN 2015..........................................171 FIGURE I-1: “ISSUES & DRIVERS”....................................................................................176 FIGURE I-2: WEAPONIZED MQ-1B PREDATOR A............................................................177 FIGURE I-3: PREDATOR/PREDATOR B, HUNTER-KILLER CONOPS.................................177 FIGURE I-4: SEAD/EA CONOPS, COOPERATIVE OPERATION.......................................178 FIGURE I-5: UCAV ENGAGEMENT CONOPS..................................................................179 FIGURE I-6: EO/IR TARGETING SYSTEMS.......................................................................180 FIGURE I-7: RADAR.........................................................................................................180 FIGURE I-8: PROCESSORS.................................................................................................181 FIGURE I-9: UCAV APERTURES......................................................................................182 FIGURE J-1: U.S. MILITARY UAV MISHAP RATES (LIFETIME), 1986 – 2002..................187 FIGURE J-2: AVERAGE SOURCES OF SYSTEM FAILURES FOR U.S. MILITARY UAV FLEET (BASED ON 97,000 HOURS).......................................................................................189 FIGURE J-3: AVERAGE SOURCES OF SYSTEM FAILURES FOR IAI UAV FLEET (BASED ON 100,000 HOURS)......................................................................................................189 x