North Korea About the author Born in London and educated there and in Glasgow, Paul French has lived and worked in Shanghai for many years. A leading expert on North Korea, he is a widely published analyst and commentator on Asia and has written a number of books dealing with China’s pre-1949 history and Asian politics and current affairs. His previous books include a history of North Korea, a biography of Shanghai ad man and adventurer Carl Crow, and a history of foreign correspondents in China. Paul was awarded the 2013 Edgar Award for Best Fact Crime for his international best-seller Midnight in Peking. North Korea State of paranoia Paul French Zed Books london | new york North Korea: State of Paranoia was first published in 2014 by Zed Books Ltd, 7 Cynthia Street, London n1 9JF, uk and Room 400, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, ny 10010, uSa www.zedbooks.co.uk Copyright © Paul French 2014 The right of Paul French to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988 Designed and typeset in Monotype Bembo Book by illuminati, Grosmont Index by John Barker Cover designed by www.roguefour.co.uk All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of Zed Books Ltd. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data available ISBn 978-1-78032-949-9 Contents acknowledgementS vii aBBrevIatIonS, SPellIngS and FIgureS ix Foreword The myth and the reality of the state of paranoia xvi IntroductIon The paranoid peninsula 1 Part I The Juche nation: beloved leaders, brilliant thoughts, power cuts and empty shelves 1 A normal day in Pyongyang 15 2 The Juche state: political theory in North Korea 45 3 The revolutionary dynasty: leadership in North Korea 72 Part II The economics of North Korea: Chollima, speed battles, collapse and famine 4 Economics Pyongyang style: command and control 105 5 The worst of times: food, famine and the arduous march 168 6 The start of a sort of reform: change and regime survival 203 7 The reality of reform: a case study of Sinuiju 246 Part III Diplomacy and the military: foreign relations, nuclear crisis and self-defence 8 Don’t poke the snake: US–DPRK relations 273 9 Nuclear ambitions revealed: bluster, brinkmanship or battle? 308 10 ‘Military First’ emerges 319 Part Iv Change, collapse and reunification 11 One Korea: the dream of reunification 345 12 Kim3: the dynasty continues 381 13 How will the story end? 389 concluSIon Still the world’s most dangerous tripwire 410 noteS 425 BIBlIograPhy 446 Index 452 Acknowledgements This book is the culmination of watching the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for many years and writing about the country from a business perspective for my former company Access Asia and a variety of other publications. It has to be stated at the start that many people who fed ideas and experiences into this book cannot be mentioned by name. Such is the nature of the DPRK that securing entry visas and building relationships are hard enough without being associ- ated with a book that will probably not be warmly greeted in Pyongyang. Those people know who they are and will I hope recognise their contributions. Naturally, any mistakes made with the information they provided or differences in interpretation are entirely the author’s responsibility. A number of people can be mentioned, though. Primary thanks must go to my two former colleagues at Access Asia: Matthew Crabbe (who provided the title) and Chris Torrens, both of whom share my interest in the DPRK and contributed to the debates around the changing nature of the country. Both were also gracious enough to indulge me patiently in pursuing this book. Thanks should also go to Barry Colman in Shanghai for his comments on the original proposal and encouragement. Thanks must go to Joe Studwell and Arthur Kroeber of the China Economic Quarterly; Stephen Green, head of Greater China research at Standard Chartered; Professor David Wall viii north korea of Cambridge University’s School of International Relations; Andy Rothman, Chief China Strategist with CLSA; Hugh Peyman of Research-Works; and Tom Toback of Pyongyang- square.com. Thanks also to Mark O’Neill for comments on Sinuiju, and to Richard McGregor of the Financial Times for his thoughts on the DPRK. Other thanks go to various Pyongyang and East Asia observ- ers including Josh Green, Keith Bennett, John Swenson-Wright of Cambridge University and Aidan Foster-Carter. Information on the DPRK is hard enough to dig up, though made easier by the helpful staff of the Shanghai Public Library, the British Library, the London Library, Hong Kong Univer- sity Library, the RIIA’s library, London School of Economics Library, the Russian State Library, Shanghai’s Fudan Uni- versity Library, the Marx Memorial Library in London and the New York Public Library. I also acknowledge the work the Nautilus Institute does in supplying regular updates and thoughtful essays on the situation in the DPRK (www.nautilus. org), CanKor for its DPRK clippings service (www.cankor.ca) and Pyongyangsquare.com for its database of DPRK-related information (www.pyongyangsquare.com). At Zed Books in London thanks must go to senior editor Robert Molteno, who first enthusiastically took up this project, Kim Walker for continuing it, Robin Gable and Lucy Morton for editing the book in various incarnations, and Jonathan Maunder for publicity and marketing. Abbreviations, spellings and figures AC Administrative Council (DPRK) ACF Action Contre la Faim ADB Asian Development Bank ADRA Adventist Development and Relief Agency International AFTA Asian Free Trade Association AMC asset management company APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation AREP Agricultural Recovery and Environment Plan ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations CAP Consolidated Appeals Process (UN) CBMs confidence-building measures CBW chemical and biological weapons CCTV China Central Television (Chinese state broadcaster) CDMA code division multiple access CFSAM Crop and Food Supply Assessment (FAO/WFP) CIA Central Intelligence Agency (US) CNKR Commission to Help North Korean Refugees (ROK) CNN Cable News Network Comecon Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation CPC Communist Party of China CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union CSRC China Securities Regulatory Commission (stock market regulator) DCRK Democratic Confederal Republic of Koryo DMZ demilitarized zone DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EU European Union FALU Food Aid Liaison Unit FAM Food Administration Ministry (DPRK)