Thinking Together: New Forms of Thought System for a Revolution in Military Affairs Martin Burke Joint Systems Branch Electronics and Surveillance Research Laboratory DSTO-RR-0173 ABSTRACT The notion of Thought Warfare and Anti-Warfare (TWAW) is introduced as a way of thinking about military conflict and its avoidance; it is foreseen as an increasingly important Defence issue in the twenty-first century. TWAW involves the dynamic interaction of allies(cid:146) and adversaries(cid:146) Thought Systems. Current Thought Systems involve entities capable of cognition, emotion and volition - typically (groups of) people - interacting via networks of information and data systems. New forms of Thought System are proposed that go beyond this; if realised they could provide significant comparative advantage in TWAW and may contribute to a Revolution in Military Affairs. RELEASE LIMITATION Approved for public release Published by DSTO Electronics and Surveillance Research Laboratory PO Box 1500 Salisbury South Australia 5108 Telephone: (08) 259 5555 Fax: (08) 259 6567 © Commonwealth of Australia 2000 AR No. AR-011-473 July 2000 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE Thinking Together: New Forms of Thought System for a Revolution in Military Affairs Executive Summary ‘All things are ready, if our minds be so.’ King Henry the Fifth (Act IV, Scene III) William Shakespeare Toffler and Toffler have introduced the notion of War and Anti-War as a new way of thinking about military conflict and its avoidance, [Toffler and Toffler 1993]. They foresee that advances in information and telecommunications technologies will lead to Knowledge Warfare and Anti-Warfare (KWAW) being the pre-eminent Defence issue in the twenty- first century. They introduce the idea of Thinking Systems as entities in which groups of people act as knowledge agents supported by networks of information and data systems. They discuss how KWAW concerns the interaction of allies(cid:146) and adversaries(cid:146) Thinking Systems. This paper addresses the same domain as Toffler and Toffler. However, by adopting an architectural perspective, it conceptualises the domain in a markedly different way; this affords various significant new insights that are of potential Defence significance. Within this perspective, Thought Systems (TS) are proposed as being broadly equivalent to the Tofflers(cid:146) Thinking Systems. Thought Systems are considered to consist of five principal types of components namely: Data Systems (DS), Information Systems (IS), Knowledge Systems (KS), Will Systems (WS) and Feeling Systems (FS). Furthermore, within this perspective, the term Knowledge Warfare and Anti-Warfare is seen to be a misleadingly narrow term for the domain to which it refers. The term Thought Warfare and Anti-Warfare (TWAW) is regarded as being more appropriate since it captures not just the cognitive aspects of the domain but also the emotional and volitional aspects. This paper suggests that the goal in synthesising Thought Systems is to achieve synergy in the sense that the (cid:147)capability(cid:148) of a Thought System, denoted C(TS), is greater than the sum of the capabilities of its component Data Systems, Information Systems, Knowledge Systems, Will Systems and Feeling Systems, denoted C(DS), C(IS), C(KS), C(WS), and C(FS) respectively. That is: C(TS) > C(FS) + C(WS) + C(KS) + C(IS) + C(DS) The paper presents a provisional conceptualisation of the domain of TWAW using plain English and simple architectural techniques; the conceptualisation is used to frame an analysis of current Thought Systems in Defence. It suggests that current Defence capability development focuses on Data Systems and Information Systems. Very little explicit thought and action is devoted to Knowledge Systems, Will Systems or Feeling Systems; the goal of achieving synergy through their interaction is largely overlooked. This is exemplified by Defence(cid:146)s recent initiatives with the Defence Information Environment (DIE), [Chin 1999], [Burns 2000]; Takari, [Chessell 1997], [Takari 2000]; and Project Sphinx, [DFW 1999]. In the assumption that in the future Australia(cid:146)s likely adversaries will have superior numbers, similar technology and can potentially have access to the same information (ie information security cannot be assured) it argues that the onus in future TWAW will be on Knowledge Systems, Will Systems and Feeling Systems. It argues that major comparative advantage in TWAW can be anticipated if new types of Thought Systems can be realised. It suggests how this would contribute to a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), [ORMA 1999], through step-changes in C(KS) rather than C(IS) or C(DS). Comments are also made about developments in C(WS) and C(FS). The paper proposes various new types of Thought System; new modes of cognition and consciousness emerge as properties of these systems. It discusses the Defence implications of these ideas and outlines a research program by which they might be developed further. Author Martin Burke Joint Systems Branch Martin Burke holds the position of Architecture Mentor in Joint Systems Branch where he conducts research in the emerging fields of Thought Systems, Architecture Meta-Thinking and Multi- Disciplinary Thinking. He is also an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Systems Engineering and Evaluation Centre at the University of South Australia and an Associate of the Centre for Business Dynamics and Knowledge Management at the Australian Defence Force Academy, University of New South Wales. At other stages of his career, Martin has held research and management positions in ITD’s Information Architectures Group, ITD’s Software Systems Engineering Group, the UK Atomic Energy Authority, the SEMA Group Research Centre and Rolls Royce (Aero). Martin has a BSc (Hons) in Physics, a MSc in Mathematical Statistics and a PhD in Engineering Mathematics. _____________________________________________________ Contents 1 Introduction...........................................................................................................7 1.1 Context.........................................................................................................................7 1.2 Readership...................................................................................................................7 1.3 Background and Motivation......................................................................................7 1.4 Scope and Objectives..................................................................................................9 1.5 Approach....................................................................................................................10 1.6 Structure.....................................................................................................................10 2 Central Concepts..................................................................................................12 2.1 Overview....................................................................................................................12 2.2 Definitions and Explanations...................................................................................16 2.2.1 Meaning............................................................................................................................16 2.2.2 Symbol..............................................................................................................................16 2.2.3 Sign...................................................................................................................................16 2.2.4 Schema..............................................................................................................................16 2.2.5 Schema Description..........................................................................................................17 2.2.6 System...............................................................................................................................17 2.2.7 Complexity........................................................................................................................19 2.2.8 Emergent Properties..........................................................................................................19 2.2.9 Systems Hierarchy............................................................................................................20 2.2.10 Architecture..................................................................................................................21 2.2.11 Architecture Description..............................................................................................21 2.2.11.1 Architecture View....................................................................................................21 2.2.12 Data..............................................................................................................................21 2.2.13 Data System..................................................................................................................22 2.2.14 Order............................................................................................................................22 2.2.15 Information...................................................................................................................23 2.2.16 Information System......................................................................................................24 2.2.17 Intelligence...................................................................................................................25 2.2.18 Knowledge....................................................................................................................26 2.2.19 Knowledge System.......................................................................................................28 2.2.19.1 Natural Knowledge Systems....................................................................................29 2.2.19.2 Non-Natural Knowledge Systems............................................................................29 2.2.19.3 Hybrid Knowledge Systems.....................................................................................29 2.2.19.4 Artificial Knowledge Systems..................................................................................29 2.2.20 Cognition......................................................................................................................29 2.2.21 Feelings........................................................................................................................31 2.2.22 Feeling System.............................................................................................................31 2.2.22.1 Natural Feeling Systems...........................................................................................32 2.2.22.2 Non-Natural Feeling Systems...................................................................................32 2.2.22.3 Hybrid Feeling Systems...........................................................................................32 2.2.22.4 Artificial Feeling Systems........................................................................................32 2.2.23 Emotion........................................................................................................................32 2.2.24 Will...............................................................................................................................34 2.2.25 Will System..................................................................................................................34 2.2.25.1 Natural Will Systems...............................................................................................35 2.2.25.2 Non-Natural Will Systems.......................................................................................35 2.2.25.3 Hybrid Will Systems................................................................................................35 2.2.25.4 Artificial Will Systems.............................................................................................35 2.2.26 Volition........................................................................................................................35 2.2.27 Thought........................................................................................................................37 2.2.28 Thought System............................................................................................................37 2.2.29 Consciousness..............................................................................................................38 2.2.30 Understanding..............................................................................................................39 2.2.31 Culture..........................................................................................................................39 2.2.32 Culture System.............................................................................................................39 2.3 Discussion...................................................................................................................41 3 Architecture Description of Thought Systems....................................................44 3.1 Knowledge Systems View Schema...........................................................................44 3.1.1 KS Component Type........................................................................................................45 3.1.2 Group Size........................................................................................................................45 3.1.3 Sharing (process) and Sharing (product)..........................................................................46 3.1.4 Coordination.....................................................................................................................46 3.1.5 Distribution.......................................................................................................................47 3.1.6 Diversity...........................................................................................................................47 3.2 Examples....................................................................................................................48 3.2.1 Website.............................................................................................................................48 3.2.2 Ant....................................................................................................................................48 3.2.3 Ant Colony........................................................................................................................48 3.2.4 Zapatista Social Netwar....................................................................................................49 3.3 Discussion...................................................................................................................49 4 Current Thought Systems....................................................................................51 4.1 Human Minds............................................................................................................51 4.2 Composite Thought Systems in Defence.................................................................52 4.2.1 C4ISREW Systems...........................................................................................................53 4.2.2 Situational Awareness.......................................................................................................54 4.2.3 Communication of Intent..................................................................................................54 4.2.4 Systems of Systems...........................................................................................................55 4.2.5 Way of Warfighting..........................................................................................................55 4.2.6 Summary...........................................................................................................................56 4.3 Collective Intelligence...............................................................................................56 4.4 Ba................................................................................................................................57 4.4.1 Originating ba...................................................................................................................58 4.4.2 Interacting ba....................................................................................................................58 4.4.3 Cyber ba...........................................................................................................................58 4.4.4 Exercising ba....................................................................................................................59 4.4.5 Comments.........................................................................................................................59 5 Future Thought Systems.....................................................................................60 5.1 Knowledge Sharing Artificial Thought Systems....................................................60 5.1.1 Comments.........................................................................................................................61 5.2 Collective Thought Systems......................................................................................61 5.3 Coordinated Collective Thought Systems...............................................................62 5.4 Empathetic Thought Systems...................................................................................63 5.5 Sympathetic Thought Systems.................................................................................65 5.6 Pluralistic Thought Systems.....................................................................................66 6 Implications for Defence.....................................................................................67 6.1 General.......................................................................................................................67 6.2 Specific........................................................................................................................67 6.2.1 Knowledge Sharing Artificial Thought Systems...............................................................68 6.2.2 Collective Thought Systems.............................................................................................68 6.2.3 Empathetic and Sympathetic Thought Systems................................................................69 6.2.4 Comments.........................................................................................................................69 7 Way ahead............................................................................................................71 7.1 Approach....................................................................................................................71 7.2 Strategy.......................................................................................................................71 7.2.1 Non-Natural......................................................................................................................72 7.2.2 Hybrid...............................................................................................................................72 7.2.3 Human...............................................................................................................................72 7.3 Comments...................................................................................................................73 8 Discussion............................................................................................................74 9 Concluding Remarks...........................................................................................76 10 Acknowledgements..............................................................................................76 11 References............................................................................................................77 Appendix A: Objective and Subjective Knowledge....................................................81 Appendix B: Empathetic Communication.................................................................82 Appendix C: Sympathetic Communication...............................................................84 Appendix D:Occidental Epistemologies....................................................................85 D.1 General...................................................................................................................85 D.2 Product: "Commodity"........................................................................................86 D.3 Process: "Knowing"..............................................................................................87 Appendix E: Architecture Views................................................................................88 E.1 Structural View.....................................................................................................88 E.2 Piecewise View.......................................................................................................88 E.3 Synoptic View........................................................................................................88 E.4 Panoptic View........................................................................................................89 Appendix F: Information Warfare and Knowledge Warfare...................................90 Appendix G:Kasparov versus Kasparov....................................................................91 Appendix H:Knowledge Edge....................................................................................92 Appendix I: System of Systems.................................................................................94 I.1 System.........................................................................................................................94 I.2 System of Systems......................................................................................................94 I.3 Defence System of Systems.......................................................................................94 I.4 Joint System of Systems (or Joint System).............................................................95 Appendix J: Truth and Scientific Knowledge...........................................................96 Colour Code/Reading Guide Major points are in black text – gives a quickly read outline of the case being made. Details are in blue text – gives a fuller picture of what’s intended. DSTO-RR-0173 1 Introduction ‘Some men see things as they are and ask why; others dream of things as they might be and ask why not.’ Robert Kennedy 1.1 Context This paper is an output of a research effort initiated within the Joint Systems Branch of DSTO. It has been carried out as part of DSTO Task JNT 99/018 (Architecture Support and Technology). Dr Michael Jarvis of the Capability Analysis Staff has been the primary point of contact in Australian Defence Headquarters for the work. 1.2 Readership The paper has been written to be read by members of the Australian Defence community particularly those concerned with “alternate futures” and long-term strategic planning. It assumes that the reader is familiar with concepts such as the Revolution in Military Affairs, (RMA), Knowledge Warfare, C4ISREW, etc. No particular academic background has been assumed of its readership. All arguments developed in the paper are couched in terms of concepts that are introduced in the paper. Wherever possible, “plain English” is used. A simple colour scheme is used in an attempt to facilitate the paper being read differently by readers with different professional interests, cognitive styles, time available for reading it, etc.; the colour scheme is summarised immediately after the Contents lists above. Accordingly, a basic grasp of the paper’s major ideas can be achieved by limiting reading to just the black text; a deeper understanding can be formed by reading both the black and blue texts. 1.3 Background and Motivation Toffler and Toffler have introduced the notion of War and Anti-War as a new way of thinking1 about military conflict and its avoidance, [Toffler and Toffler 1993]. Their basic premises are that, in any epoch: • the way that wealth is created strongly influences the way that war is made; • different forms of warfighting require different forms of peacekeeping. They contend that, broadly speaking, history can be divided into two epochs dominated by distinctly different forms of wealth creation and warfighting: an Agrarian Age characterised by the hoe and the sword; and an Industrial Age characterised by mass production and mass destruction. They argue that, as information and knowledge become the core of advanced economies, the transition into a third epoch, the Information (or Knowledge) Age, will occur. They forecast that information and knowledge strategies will increasingly dominate in business, warfighting and peacekeeping. They speculate on many issues including: • the use of artificial forms of intelligence in military decision making; • the use of precision genetic weaponry in attacking specific ethnic or racial groups; • the use of virtual reality weapons in confusing enemies; 1 Thomas Kuhn, [Kuhn 1996 (1962)], coined the term “paradigm shift” to refer to such changes in thinking.