Natural Hazards Analysis Reducing the Impact of Disasters Natural Hazards Analysis Reducing the Impact of Disasters John C. Pine Auerbach Publications Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Auerbach is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4200-7038-5 (Hardcover) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher can- not assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. 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HV553.P528 2008 363.34’7--dc22 2008023245 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the Auerbach Web site at http://www.auerbach-publications.com Contents Preface ...........................................................................................................xv Acknowledgments .......................................................................................xvii 1 Introduction to Hazards Analysis ..........................................................1 Objectives ....................................................................................................1 Key Terms....................................................................................................1 Issue .............................................................................................................2 Introduction ................................................................................................2 Terminology of Hazards ..............................................................................2 Views of Extreme Natural Events as Primary Causes of Disasters ................6 A Changing Hazard Paradigm .....................................................................7 Hazards Analysis .........................................................................................9 Hazard Identification ........................................................................10 Vulnerability Analysis .......................................................................10 Risk Analysis ....................................................................................11 Linking Hazards Analysis to Risk and Comprehensive Emergency Management ..................................................................12 Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis ................................15 Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis .................................17 Values in Community Engagement ..................................................18 Human Social and Cultural Heritage Elements .......................18 Protective Actions ....................................................................18 Constructed and Physical Environment...................................18 Conclusion .................................................................................................19 Discussion Questions .................................................................................22 Applications ...............................................................................................23 Web Sites ...................................................................................................23 References ..................................................................................................24 2 Hazard Identification ...........................................................................29 Objectives ..................................................................................................29 v vi  Contents Key Terms..................................................................................................29 Issue ...........................................................................................................30 Introduction ..............................................................................................30 Hazard Identification Process ....................................................................31 Organizing a Hazard Identification Team ........................................33 Creating a Community Profile ...................................................................33 Social, Physical, and Environmental Assets ......................................34 Environmental or Natural Assets ......................................................35 Social Environment ..........................................................................37 Built Environment ............................................................................37 Infrastructure ..........................................................................38 Critical Facilities ......................................................................38 Economic Activities .................................................................38 Mapping Community Assets and Hazards ................................................39 Interdependence of Communities ..............................................................41 Identifying Community Problems ............................................................42 Problem-Solving Process ...................................................................43 Problem Solving in an Ill-Structured Environment .........................46 Decision Traps ..................................................................................47 Conclusions ...............................................................................................47 Discussion Questions .................................................................................48 Applications ...............................................................................................48 Hazard Web Sites.......................................................................................49 Maps ..........................................................................................................49 References ..................................................................................................49 3 Modeling Natural Environmental Hazards .........................................51 Objectives ..................................................................................................51 Key Terms..................................................................................................51 Issue ...........................................................................................................52 Introduction ..............................................................................................52 The Role of Hazard Modeling in Hazards Analysis ..........................52 Linking GIS and Environmental Models ..........................................55 Nature and Types of Models ......................................................................57 Dynamic ...........................................................................................57 Combination ....................................................................................57 Deterministic ....................................................................................58 Probabilistic ......................................................................................58 Hazard Models ..........................................................................................59 HAZUS-MH Model ........................................................................59 HAZUS-MH Analysis ............................................................61 Case Study: Data Sources for Flood Modeling ........................62 Assessing Hazard Models ...........................................................................65 Contents  vii Quality .............................................................................................65 Timeliness ........................................................................................68 Completeness ....................................................................................69 Data Accuracy, Resolution, and Availability .....................................70 Advantages and Disadvantages of Hazard Models .....................................71 Hazard Profiles ..........................................................................................73 Type of Hazard .................................................................................74 Sources of Hazard Information .........................................................74 Frequency of Occurrence ..................................................................75 Magnitude ........................................................................................76 Location and Spatial Extent ..............................................................76 Duration ...........................................................................................76 Seasonal Pattern ................................................................................76 Speed of Onset ................................................................................77 Availability of Warnings ..................................................................77 Hazard Profile Sample for a Tornado ................................................78 Description of Hazard .............................................................78 Potential Magnitude ................................................................78 Frequency of Occurrence .........................................................78 Seasonal Pattern ......................................................................78 Probable Duration ...................................................................78 Potential Speed of Onset .........................................................79 Identify Existing Warning Mechanisms ..................................79 Identify Location and Spatial Extent of Potential Event ..........79 Conclusions ...............................................................................................79 Discussion Questions .................................................................................80 Applications ...............................................................................................80 Web Sites ...................................................................................................81 Avalanches ........................................................................................81 Coastal Storms .................................................................................81 Dam Safety .......................................................................................82 Drought ............................................................................................82 Earthquakes ......................................................................................82 Flooding ...........................................................................................82 Heat ..................................................................................................83 Landslides .........................................................................................83 Lightning ..........................................................................................83 Snowstorms ......................................................................................83 Tornadoes .........................................................................................83 Tsunamis .........................................................................................84 Wildfires ..........................................................................................84 References ..................................................................................................85 viii  Contents 4 Spatial Analysis ....................................................................................87 Objectives ..................................................................................................87 Key Terms..................................................................................................87 Issue ...........................................................................................................88 Introduction ..............................................................................................88 Definition of Spatial Analysis ....................................................................88 Geospatial Data Set ...................................................................................89 Spatial Data Quality ..................................................................................92 Types of Spatial Analysis ............................................................................95 Queries .............................................................................................95 Measurements ...................................................................................96 Transformations ...............................................................................97 Buffering...........................................................................................98 Descriptive Summaries .....................................................................99 Optimization Techniques .................................................................99 Hypothesis Testing ...........................................................................99 Spatial Data Visualization ........................................................................100 Choropleth Maps .....................................................................................102 Conclusions .............................................................................................104 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................105 Applications .............................................................................................105 Web Sites .................................................................................................105 References ................................................................................................106 5 Risk Analysis: Assessing the Risks of Natural Hazards .....................107 Objectives ................................................................................................107 Key Terms................................................................................................107 Introduction ............................................................................................108 The Process of Risk Analysis ....................................................................108 What Is Risk? ..........................................................................................109 Quantitative Analysis of Risk .........................................................110 Qualitative Representation of Consequence ....................................111 Views of Risk ..................................................................................111 Using Historical Data in Determining Risk ............................................114 The Need for Complete Accurate Data for Decision Making .........115 Using Technical Data in Decision Making .....................................116 Indicators of Direct and Indirect Losses .........................................117 Issues in Risk Analysis .............................................................................119 Changes in Disaster Frequency .......................................................119 Availability of Essential Data ..........................................................119 Depth of Analysis ...........................................................................121 Dealing with Uncertainty ........................................................................123 Relative Ranking of Risks ...............................................................123 Contents  ix Priority Rating ................................................................................126 Acceptable Risk .......................................................................................127 Risk Benefits ...................................................................................127 Determining Risk Acceptability .....................................................128 Personal .................................................................................128 Political/Social .......................................................................128 Economic ..............................................................................129 Risk Strategies .........................................................................................129 Accept the Risk ...............................................................................129 Extremely Low Likelihood of Risk .................................................129 Mandatory Risk Level ....................................................................130 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................130 Applications .............................................................................................131 Web Sites .................................................................................................131 References ................................................................................................131 6 Social, Economic, and Ecological Vulnerability ................................135 Objectives ................................................................................................135 Key Terms................................................................................................135 Introduction ............................................................................................136 Approaches to Vulnerability .....................................................................136 Dimensions of Vulnerability ....................................................................139 Social and Human Vulnerability ....................................................140 Economic Vulnerability ..................................................................141 Environmental Vulnerability ..........................................................142 Measuring Vulnerability ..........................................................................144 Indicators of Social Conditions .......................................................144 Indicators of Economic Conditions ................................................147 Indicators of Environmental Conditions .........................................148 Methodological Issues ..............................................................................150 Weighting, Data Availability, and Accuracy ...................................151 Multiyear Analysis ..........................................................................152 Interdependence of Social, Economic, and Ecological Capital .................153 Discussion Questions ...............................................................................154 Applications .............................................................................................154 Web Sites .................................................................................................154 References ................................................................................................155 7 Risk Communication .........................................................................159 Objectives ................................................................................................159 Key Terms................................................................................................159 Issue .........................................................................................................160 Introduction ............................................................................................160