Natural Gas at the Frontline Between the EU, Russia, and Turkey A Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum Roxana Andrei Natural Gas at the Frontline Between the EU, Russia, and Turkey Roxana Andrei Natural Gas at the Frontline Between the EU, Russia, and Turkey A Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum Roxana Andrei Coimbra, Portugal ISBN 978-3-031-17056-0 ISBN 978-3-031-17057-7 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-17057-7 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa- tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To my beloved parents, Ana and Alexandru, my (re)sources of inspiration and my strength. Preface The war in Ukraine and the overlapping energy crisis have reconfigured, since 2022, the European and the global geopolitical scene, dislocating not only crucial natural resources, such as natural gas and oil, but also the pace of the energy transition, with many European countries returning to the use of more carbon-intensive alternatives, as coal. However, most importantly, the unprecedented accumulation of the most severe geopo- litical and energy crises faced by Europe in many decades has dislocated the continent’s existential security, its basic trust and sense of continuity. In this light, the book analyses the rapidly unfolding events that have impacted on the European energy dynamics up to July 2022, performing an incursion through the past two decades’ evolutions of the cooperation and conflict relations around four main trigger moments in time: 2000 (the year when Vladimir Putin took over presidency in Russia), 2006 and 2009 (the years of the gas disputes between Ukraine and Russia and subsequent gas supply interruptions to Europe), 2014 (the annexation of Crimea) and 2022 (the war in Ukraine). I introduce an innovative interpretation of the conflict and cooper- ation dynamics in Europe, by challenging the reader to look beyond the material aspects of energy security, related to supply and demand, consumption, production and prices dynamics, which I nonetheless explain in detail. Thus, I invite the audience to explore the deeper layer of motivations that underpin the actors’ decisions to engage in vii viii PREFACE conflict and cooperation, by exploring their cognitive and psychological considerations, in addition to the material ones. For this purpose, I present a new conceptual tool, the conflict- cooperation perpetuum, in order to explain why the same players, in this case the EU, Russia and Turkey, may choose to simultaneously perceive each other as security threats and trade partners, engaging simultane- ously in conflict and cooperation with the same ‘Other’. In addition, I propose applying the framework of ontological security, imported from psychoanalysis, in order to understand the responses of the EU, Russia and Turkey to the major existential crises that have affected them in past years, culminating with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis of 2022. The book offers a vast exploration of the energy policies and strategies of the three key actors, revealing how the EU, Russia and Turkey, along with other European actors which impacted on their interaction, such as Ukraine, have been narrating themselves on the international energy scene and how they have instrumentalised energy security in the conflict and cooperation dynamics between them. Coimbra, Portugal Roxana Andrei Acknowledgements I wrote this book having in mind my beloved parents, Ana and Alexandru, who inspired me, with their immense love and support, that any game should be played for the beauty of it and not for competing with anyone else than ourselves, to work hard for the things I care about, and to walk my own way, to follow my own path in life and in my professional work. And this is what I did when I wrote this book. I did it my way. My wholehearted thanks go to Professor Maria Raquel Freire from the University of Coimbra in Portugal, who made it all seem possible with her warm and kind support, and with her much-needed and welcomed suggestions. The research was generously funded between 2015 and 2019 by the Foundation for Science and Technology in Portugal, to which I am thankful for the support offered. I am equally grateful to Dr. Jack Sharples from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, who patiently reviewed the manuscript in its early stage, provided me with most valuable insights and encouraged me to publish the book it has become today. And finally, a special thank you to my dearest lifelong friends, Sebas- tian, Anton, Ecaterina, Grigore, Nicolae and their wonderful family, and to Father Andrei and Father Daniel, for whom nothing is ever impossible. ix Contents 1 Introduction 1 The Unsettled Puzzle: The EU, Russia and Turkey Between Political Foes and Energy Partners 1 The Novelty: Introducing the Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum and the Ontological Security Frameworks 4 Methodology 8 Outline of the Book 11 The Way Forward: Future Research Avenues 13 References 14 2 Energy as Security: Overcoming Theoretical and Conceptual Reductionism in Energy Studies 15 Energy Relations from Cooperative Trade to Conflictual Geopolitics 16 Theoretical Reductionism in Interpreting and Understanding Energy Relations in Europe 20 Geopolitical Reductionism: Energy (Re)sources of Conflict 20 The Energy Security Dilemma Bias 20 The Asymmetric Interdependence Bias 22 The Energy Weapon Bias 27 Critical Reductionism: Construction and Securitisation of Energy in Europe 34 Bridging Theories in Energy Studies: Social Constructivism and Neoclassical Realism 35 xi xii CONTENTS Critical Security Literature and Securitisation Theory: A Confined Contribution to Energy Studies 37 Conceptual Reductionism in Debating Conflict, Cooperation and Security in the Energy Field 42 The Conflict-Cooperation Dichotomy Bias: Conflict and Cooperation as Binary, Opposing Concepts 43 Conceptual Reductionism of Energy Security: The Material-Ideational Dichotomy Bias 46 References 51 3 Ontological Energy Security: Cognitive and Material Foundations for a Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum 61 The Conflict-Cooperation Perpetuum: Conflict and Cooperation as Coexisting Instances 62 Ontological Security: Cognitive Foundations of Conflict and Cooperation in the Energy Field 68 Ontological Security: An Innovative Theoretical Framework for Energy Studies 70 Ontological Security in IR: A Combined Material-Cognitive Framework of Understanding Energy Relations in Europe 73 References 82 4 Natural Gas at the Frontline of the Energy Crisis and the War in Ukraine: A Material Perspective 87 Natural Gas in 2020–2022: A Rollercoaster of Market Dynamics and Geopolitics 88 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the European Gas Dynamics: 2020—The Year of Extreme Optimism 88 Natural Gas During the Energy Crisis and the War in Ukraine: 2021/2022—The Years of Low Supplies and High Anxieties 92 Every Molecule Matters: The EU’s Alternatives to Russian Gas and the Future of Natural Gas in Europe 100 Alternatives to Russian Gas: Energy Security as Energy Survival 100 The Role of Natural Gas in Europe in 2022 and Beyond 118 References 122