NATURAL DISASTER RESEARCH, PREDICTION AND MITIGATION N D ATURAL ISASTERS P , R F REVENTION ISK ACTORS M AND ANAGEMENT No part of this digital document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means. The publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this digital document, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained herein. This digital document is sold with the clear understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, medical or any other professional services. N D R , ATURAL ISASTER ESEARCH P M REDICTION AND ITIGATION Additional books in this series can be found on Nova‘s website under the Series tab. Additional E-books in this series can be found on Nova‘s website under the E-book tab. S R S AFETY AND ISK IN OCIETY Additional books in this series can be found on Nova‘s website under the Series tab. Additional E-books in this series can be found on Nova‘s website under the E-book tab. NATURAL DISASTER RESEARCH, PREDICTION AND MITIGATION N D ATURAL ISASTERS P , R F REVENTION ISK ACTORS M AND ANAGEMENT BILJANA RASKOVIC AND SVETOMIR MRDJA EDITORS New York Copyright © 2013 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. 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ISBN: (cid:28)(cid:26)(cid:27)(cid:16)(cid:20)(cid:16)(cid:25)(cid:21)(cid:21)(cid:24)(cid:26)(cid:16)(cid:25)(cid:26)(cid:26)(cid:16)(cid:26) (eBook) 1. Disaster relief. I. Raskovic, Biljana. II. Mrdja, Svetomir. HV553.N385 2013 363.34'82--dc23 2012030291 Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. † New York CONTENTS Preface vii Chapter 1 Typhoon/Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Disasters: Prediction, Prevention and Mitigation 1 Liu Defu, Li Huajun, Liu Guilin, Shi Hongda and Wang Fengqing Chapter 2 The Role of Point-of-Care Testing in Complex Emergency and Disaster Resilience 73 Gerald J. Kost, Corbin M. Curtis, William J. Ferguson, Richard F. Louie, Chloe S. Tang, John H. Vy, Nam K. Tran and Partheep Katip Chapter 3 Management Strategies for Children during Natural Disasters 111 Scott S. Short, Rita V. Burke, Aaron R. Jensen, Bridget M. Berg, Catherine J. Goodhue, Erik R. Barthel and Jeffrey S. Upperman Chapter 4 The New Quantile Approach: Application to the Seismic Risk Assessment 141 V. F. Pisarenko and M. V. Rodkin Chapter 5 Torrential Floods Prevention Possibilities – Case Study of the Skrapeţ River Watershed (Western Serbia) 175 Jelena Kovačević-Majkić, Marko Urošev, Dragoljub Štrbac and Ana Milanović Pešić Chapter 6 Natural Disasters in Touristic Destinations: The Case of Portuguese Islands 203 Luiz Pinto Machado and António Almeida Chapter 7 Information Technology and Simulation in Disaster Management 223 Erik R. Barthel, Rita V. Burke, Paul Vee, Scott S. Short, Bridget M. Berg, Valerie M. Muller, Randall Wetzel and Jeffrey S. Upperman Chapter 8 Instability, Investment and Natural Disasters 243 C.-Y. Cynthia Lin vi Contents Chapter 9 Coping with Disaster Trauma: Observations from Around the World 259 Nilamadhab Kar Chapter 10 Peculiarity of the Flight and the Destruction of the Tunguska Cosmic Body 281 Olga G. Gladysheva Chapter 11 When Flood Invades the Village … 297 Kirk Chang Chapter 12 Paleo-Landslides as a Component of Multi-Hazards (Case Study of the Belica River Basin, Central Serbia) 311 Marko V. Milošević, Jelena Ćalić and Milan Radovanović Chapter 13 Self-efficacy and Learning Processes Associated with the Elderly during Disasters and Crises 327 Kenneth A. Lachlan, Patric R. Spence and Xialing Lin Chapter 14 The Unintended Consequences of Government Involvement: Connecticut and Tropical Storm Irene 339 Peter Molk Index 343 PREFACE In this book, the authors present current research in the study of the prevention, risk factors and management of natural disasters. Topics discussed include typhoon and hurricane prediction; point-of-care testing in complex emergency and disaster resilience; management strategies for children during natural disasters; torrential floods prevention; information technology and simulation in disaster management; quantile approach application to seismic risk assessment; the increase of natural disasters as a result of global climate change; coping with disaster trauma; paleo-landslides in central Serbia; how the elderly cope during disasters and crises; and government involvement in Connecticut during Tropical Storm Irene. Chapter 1 – As the World Meteorological Organization estimates that about 90 percent of all natural disasters are extreme meteorological hazards like typhoon, hurricane and tropical cyclone triggered disasters. Typhoon-induced disaster is one of the most important factors influencing the economic development and more than 250 million people in China. In view of the existing extreme statistical theory can not satisfy typhoon disaster prediction, during the past 30 years research activities the authors derived Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD) by compounding a discrete distribution (typhoon occurrence frequency) and the extreme distribution for typhoon induced disaster events as following types:  Poisson-Gumbel CEVD for typhoon induced extreme wave prediction was widly used for coastal structures design and accepted in 2008 ―China Code for Sea Port Hydrology‖ instead of Pearson type 3;  Poisson-Weibull CEVD was used for hurricane prediction along US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexic coasts, 2005 hurricane Katrina disaster proved that our 1982 predicted results in disaster area more reasonable than NOAA proposed SPH and PMH ;  CEVD developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) and used for different offshore, coastal and hydraulic engineering.  Multi-objective triple layer probability model based on the MCEVD as follows:  The first layer is typhoon characteristics. They are described as maximum central pressure difference (ΔP), radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), moving speed of typhoon center (s), minimum distance between typhoon center and target site (δ ), and typhoon moving angle (θ ). But the annual typhoon/ hurricane frequency (λ) is also different for certain sea area. Typhoon duration from landfall to dissipation (t) is also considered as one of viii Biljana Raskovic and Svetomir Mrdja typhoon characteristics in the prediction model. For the analysis procedure of multivariate joint probability which combines a kind of discrete distribution (λ) and six kinds of continues distributions (ΔP, Rmax, s, δ, θ, t), the stochastic simulation technique based on the theory of MCEVD is a valid way to solve such problem.  The second layer is joint probability prediction of different combinations of typhoon characteristics triggered wave, surge, wind, rainfall, flood, current combinations by MCEVD.  The third layer: Joint probability safety assessment for different kind defense structures with certain dominated extreme external event. The authors‘ proposed MCEVD theory and Multi-objective triple layer probability model widely used for more than 40 engineering projects , such as coastal defense against typhoon attacks for Nuclear Power Plants, risk assessment for estuarine city Shanghai and hydraulic structures for Olympiad Sailing Regatta, flood prediction of Three Gorges Dam Project and design codes calibration (API, IAEA and China Design Codes) for offshore, coastal and hydraulic structures. Chapter 2 – Resilience through use of point-of-care (POC) testing in small-world networks will change the future landscape by bringing evidence-based decision-making to sites of need globally. Point-of-care (POC) testing is performed at or near the site of care to accelerate decision-making. This chapter provides value propositions that show new POC technologies can be assimilated into challenging locations when infrastructure is compromised, and for preparedness, proposes developing professional competence and team experience in the context of existing small-world networks facilitated by geographic information systems. Environmental limitations demand that POC devices and test kits adhere to manufacture temperature and humidity specifications, which may not be robust enough for the hot, cold, and humid conditions encountered in field operations. Indeed, the effects of environmental stresses can no longer be ignored. Hence, there must be strategic alternatives for placement of POC testing in alternate care facilities. Overall, POC testing promises to transform crisis standards of care by bringing enhanced evidence-based diagnosis and treatment to victims most in need and by accelerating screening and triage critical to effective emergency and disaster care. Chapter 3 – Children are vulnerable during a disaster due to differences in physiology, limited self–sufficiency, and increased susceptibility to hazards. It is necessary to have comprehensive plans in place in order to mitigate the events after a disaster occurs. Many disaster plans do not effectively incorporate children into disaster management and fail to prepare for the needs of this population. Disaster drills are needed to identify roles, identify needed supplies, and understand surge capacity. Appropriate preparation will optimize response and coordination of large numbers of trauma victims in an efficient manner. Additional resources are needed for inter-hospital communication, family reunification, and vigilance against secondary injuries in this vulnerable population. In this chapter, the authors will discuss disaster mitigation, preparation, response, and recovery strategies by healthcare personnel to limit social, psychological, and medical effects of natural disasters on children. Chapter 4 – The authors examine the earthquake size distributions in the uppermost range of extremely rare events using a new method for statistical estimation of the tail distribution.