NATURAL DISASTERS AND MAN MADE ACCIDENTS © M. Ragheb 9/7/2021 “If something does not kill you, it makes you stronger.” Friedrich Nietzsche, German philosopher “If people never did silly things, nothing intelligent would ever get done.” Ludwig Wittgenstein, Austrian philosopher “He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.” Sun Tzu, Chinese strategist “Bye-bye Miss American Pie Drove my Chevy to the levee but the levee was dry Them good ole boys were drinking whiskey in Rye Singing this’ll be the day that I die. This’ll be the day that I die.” Song Lyrics, Don McLean, American Singer INTRODUCTION Natural disasters occurrences are an aspect of the dynamic life on Earth and are out of the control of human beings. They occur unexpectedly by environmental changes causing tsunamis or tidal waves, hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, mud slides, earthquakes and droughts. Etymologically, the word “disaster” has its root in the Latin “aster” for “star.” The word “disaster” originally thus meant: “an unfavorable aspect of a star,” reflecting the ancient belief in astrology that suggested that the observed motion of the heavenly bodies in the sky affected terrestrial events. Natural events can be the initiating event for accidents affecting man-made structures. For instance floods can cause dam failures, and hurricanes can also cause flooding followed by dikes failures. Depending on the geographical location, a tropical system in the Atlantic or northeast Pacific is called a hurricane, in the northern Indian Ocean, it is designated as a Cyclone, and in the northwest Pacific west of the international date-line at 180 degrees in longitude, as a Typhoon. As they affect human-made structures, they can lead to even more serious accidents. For instance, an earthquake can lead to a severing of nuclear reactors coolant piping and result in a serious Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Consequently, their design and operation must account for the possible occurrence of these natural events by the addition of defensive Engineered Safety Features (ESFs) to mitigate their consequences, should they occur. Table 1 gives estimates of the societal risk of death from accidents in units of fatalities per person per year in the USA. Figure 1. Cyclone Bhola, November 12, 1970. The deadliest cyclone ever recorded storm surge flooded the low lying areas of the Ganges River delta in Bangladesh and India’s West Bengal resulting in 500,000 casualties. Source: NOAA. Table 1. Comparison of individual societal risk of death from accidents in the USA. Risk** Fatalities* Risk source [fatalities / [fatalities / year] (person.year)] Motor vehicle accidents 55,791 1.9x10-4 Accidental falls 17,827 5.9x10-5 Fires and hot substances 7,451 2.5x10-5 Drownings 6,181 2.1x10-5 Poisons 4,516 1.5x10-5 Firearms 2,309 7.7x10-6 Machinery, 1968 2,054 6.8x10-6 Air Travel 1,778 5.9x10-6 Water Transport 1,743 5.8x10-6 Falling objects 1,271 4.2x10-6 Electrocution 1,148 3.8x10-6 Railway 884 2.9x10-6 Lightning 160 5.3x10-7 Hurricanes 93† 3.1x10-7 Tornadoes 91†† 3.0x10-7 All others 8,695 2.9x10-5 All accidents 111,992 3.7x10-4 * 1969 data from “Nuclear Safety Study,” USA Atomic Energy Commission report WASH-1400, 1974. ** Based on 300 million USA population † 1901-1972 average †† 1953-1971 average Table 2. Motor vehicles risk statistics. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2007. Consequences Number Percent of fatalities Fatalities in traffic crashes 41,059 Injuries in traffic crashes 2,491,000 Alcohol related deaths 12,998 32 Speeding related deaths 13,040 32 HISTORY The most famous natural disaster is the Great Flood recounted in the story of the Noah’s Ark. According to religious Judeo-Christian and Islamic accounts, in the 1,600 years after the creation of Adam and Eve, the human race had become wicked and deviated from the right path. Noah was inspired to build an ark and to load it with a female and a male of every living species. Those humans who believed in his teachings followed him. Over forty days and forty nights, rain flooded the Earth, drowning all humans, except those who repented and followed Noah on the ark. Legend has it that the ark settled on top of Mount Ararat in Turkey. The story may have been a recount of an amalgamation of several actual global floods in the Mesopotamian region about 8,000 years ago. The Earth was coming to the end of a glacial period. The melting of the ice sheets may have caused the oceans level to rise by 5 feet. It could have been caused by a comet or asteroid impact, or an earthquake causing a large devastating tsunami and rain. Most possibly, an astral impact by a short period comet would have given enough of a warning by appearing as a bright object in both the night and day skies. Its impact would have vaporized its ice in the Earth’s atmosphere leading to a deluge of rain. The rain would in turn lead to flooding and a possible rise in sea level and to the breakage of natural dams at the Gibraltar or the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straights causing the permanent slow or fast permanent “filling” rather than temporary “flooding” of the Mediterranean and/or the Black Sea beds. Exploration with submersible vehicles has indeed revealed the existence of submerged ancient ruins that were preserved under the cold and clear water of the Black Sea. Drill cores reveal fresh water mollusk shells that may have existed at the bottom of a fresh water lake being superseded by salt water shells. A dove brought to the ark in its beak a twig from an olive tree, signaling the end of the flood, and became the modern symbol of peace. Whatever actually happened, the moral is that disasters and calamities are eventually followed by new beginnings, redemption, rebuilding, hope and salvation. Some of the historical natural events and their consequences are compiled in Tables 3 and 4. Table 3. Consequences of some natural events. Year of Consequence Event Location occurrence [deaths] The world’s largest volcanic 2,200,000 BC, Wyoming, ? eruption is thought to have 600,000 BC USA occurred at what is today the Yellowstone National Park in the North American continent. The volcano, which is considered as still active today, displays geysers, mud holes, and fumaroles in its caldera that are visited by tourists. It spewed 240 cubic miles of ash through North America about 600,000 years ago, and earlier 600 cubic miles of ash 2.2 million years ago. Mediterranean island of Stroggli 1,650-1410 BC Greece, 100,000 blew up in a volcanic eruption. At Mediterranean least one tsunami (In Japanese: tsu ‘harbor’ and ‘nami’ wave) swept over the island of Crete in the Mediterranean destroying the Minoan Empire’s capital. The area is now called Santorini. Possibly what Plato referred to as the lost city of Atlantis. Half of the Carthaginian general 218 BC Spain 20,000 Hannibal’s army and 2,000 of his horses and several elephants were killed by avalanches in the Pyrénées chain of mountains between Spain and France and the Alps Mountains between France and Italy on his way to attack Rome. Carthage is at present day Tunis, the capital of Tunisia. After centuries in dormancy, the August 24, 79 Italy 3,000 Mount Vesuvius eruption in AD Southern Italy buried under 14-17 feet of tephra and pumice the prosperous Roman city of Pompei, and under more than 60 feet of mud and volcanic ash the city of Herculaneum, instantly suffocating and burying thousands. Vesuvius was the first volcanic eruption described by its survivors. Antioch earthquake hit Syria and May 20-29, 526 Antioch, 250,000- Antioch near modern-day AD modern 300,000 Antakya, Turkey. The earthquake Antakya, was followed by a massive fire Turkey destroying the rest of the structures unaffected by the earthquake. Magnitude 8.5 earthquake caused October 11,1138 Aleppo, Syria 230,000 extensive damage to Aleppo in AD northern Syria. The region is part of the Dead Sea Fault system resting on the boundary between the Arabian geologic plate and the African plate. A seismic swarm, which is a 1201 AD Egypt, Syria 1,100,000 localized surge of earthquakes, leveled the cities and killed the residents of Egypt, Syria and adjoining areas. This was the deadliest earthquake event in known history. Black Death or Bubonic Plague 1330-1351 AD Europe, world 75,000,000 pandemic caused by the Yersinia Pestis bacterium wiping out 30- 60 percent of the European population. A North Sea storm batters the November 17, The 10,000 European coastline and resulting 1421 Netherlands in flooding of the low lying areas behind. Such fatal floods reoccurred in 1287, 1338, 1374, 1394 and 1396. Every time the dikes were fixed and the residents moved back in. The deadliest 8.0 magnitude January 23, 1556 Northern 830,000 earthquake ever recorded AD China occurred in the Shaanxi region devastated eight provinces and was China’s worst earthquake ever, reducing the population in the region by 60 percent. China is the world’s deadliest earthquake zone. Since then 2.5 million people perished in Chinese earthquakes. A two-week storm system wreaks November 27, England 10,000- havoc over England. The 1703 AD 30,000 hurricane-strength winds sank hundreds of Royal Navy Ships. Japan has been a frequent victim 1707 AD Japan 30,000 of tsunamis which occur in the Pacific Ocean at the rate of 80 percent of them. They wash out fishermen’s small harbor villages. An M8.4 Richter magnitude scale earthquake caused one of Japan’s deadliest tsunamis. Typhoon event, once thought to 1737 AD Calcutta, 300,000 have been an earthquake. India Lisbon, the capital was hit by a 1755 AD Portugal, 70,000 M9.0 Richter scale magnitude Morocco earthquake. The residents run to their ships for a perceived safety at sea, only to be hit by an ensuing tsunami devastating ports in Spain and Morocco. The Great Hurricane of 1780 hit 1780 AD West Indies 22,000 the British and French fleets and caused damage to 100 merchant ships. It moved through Barbados and St. Vincent. Yellow fever epidemic. Although October, 1793 Pennsylvania, 5,000 a vaccine can prevent it, 20,000 USA people die worldwide every year from the disease. Fluvial tsunamis caused by three February 7, 1812 Missouri, Damage was New Madrid Fault earthquakes USA light because with magnitude 7.8. The of the sparse strongest of the aftershocks, an population in M8.8 Richter magnitude scale, the area. was felt at 1,000 miles away, and caused church bells to ring at the city of Boston, Massachusetts. In 1811 and 1812 they caused the Mississippi River to temporarily reverse course for several hours. The Tambora volcanic eruption 1815 AD Indonesia 80,000 caused a famine in which 80,000 people died. India Cyclone hit the port village November 25, Coringa, India 300,000 of Coringa in Andhra Pradesh, 1839 AD India. It triggered a 40-ft wave destroying ships and the village drowning 20,000 people at sea. There are 130 active volcanoes in August 27, 1883 Indonesia 36,000 Indonesia. The Tambora killed AD 92,000 in 1815. The most powerful event is the Krakatau or Krakatoa small island eruption in 1883, whose pyroclastic flow and falling tephra killed 4,500 people. It was heard 3,000 miles away. Burst eardrums of people 40 miles away. Sound intensity was 170 dB at 100 miles. The sound wave travelled 4 times around the world, The explosion threw 5 cubic miles of earth 50 miles into the atmosphere. Islands 50 miles away were hit by 120-ft tsunamis that killed 30,000 more coastal residents. Yellow River Flood overtook the September 1887 Henan 900,000- dikes in the Henan Province of AD Province, 2,000,000 China devastating 11 large towns China and hundreds of villages rendering millions of people homeless. The flood waters covered 50,000 square miles. On July 15, 1888, the Bandai 1888 AD Japan 100s volcano erupts on the island of Honshu, Japan, burying many nearby villages in volcanic ash. Debris was sent thousands of feet in the air leaving an 8,000-foot wide crater. The steam and ash cloud was 4 miles wide. The deadliest natural disaster in 1900 Texas, USA 8,000 USA history was a hurricane that hit the port of Galveston, Texas with winds of 101 miles per hour and 25 feet breaking waves. It leveled 1/3 of the city destroying 3,500 homes. The eruption of Mount Pelée 1902 Martinique 29,000 destroyed the city of Saint Pierre, known to the European as the Paris of the West Indies. This was the deadliest volcanic eruption of the 20th century. Turtle Mountain collapsed as a 1903 Alberta, 70 result of a sudden drop in Canada temperature. It sent 30 million cubic meters of limestone in a landslide that buried the town of Frank. The 8.3 magnitude earthquake 1906 San 700 originating from the San Andreas Francisco, Fault destroyed more than 500 USA downtown city blocks. It left half of the 400,000 city residents as homeless, because of the ensuing fires. The gas lines were broken causing the fires. The water mains were also broken preventing its suppression. It left a scar of broken ground that ran half the length of the state of California. An earthquake caused 1.5 cubic 1911 Tajikistan 90 miles of rocks and debris to fall into the Murgab River in Tajikistan. As the most massive non-volcanic mud slide, it resulted in a 1,880 ft high dam now holding behind it a 37 miles long lake. Should an earthquake breach it, a massive flooding event is waiting to occur. A large avalanche kills hundreds December 13, Mount 10,000 of Austrian soldiers in barracks 1916 Marmolada, near Italy’s Mount Marmolada. Italy Over a period of several weeks, avalanches killed about 10,000 Austrian and Italian soldiers. The 8.5 magnitude earthquake December 16, Haiyuan, 235,502 Hayuan County area of the 1920 China Hingsia Province in the Gansu region of western China near the Tibet, destroyed thousands of dwellings carved into the clay cliffs and silt riverbanks. It is known as ‘Shan Tso-liao’ or ‘when the mountain walked.’ Thousands of gas ranges ready 1923 Japan 143,000 for meal preparation contributed to the incineration of Tokyo’s business and industrial districts as a result of an 8.3 magnitude earthquake. It hit 25 miles from Tokyo and Yokohama with a then combined population of 2 million people. A deadly tornado moved along 1925 Central USA 695 219 miles from Missouri to Illinois and Indiana, destroying 15,000 houses in the process. It had a mile wide funnel that sucked out whole houses and living beings. According to the Saint Louis Post-Dispatch: “A cow was hurled into the village restaurant.” Central China Floods. The worst July-August 1931 China 1,000,000- single natural disaster in history 3,700,000 occurred when the Yangtze River flooded as a result of a summer monsoon. Millions died from drowning, and starvation and water borne disease infection such as dysentery and cholera as well as the ensuing famine. More than 51 million people or ¼ of China’s population was affected by the flood. A hurricane known as the “Long 1938 Northeast, 600 Island Express,” created 121 USA miles per hour sustained winds with peaks of 186 mph. A 12 feet high surge destroyed cottages, marinas and yacht clubs at Narragansett Bay in Connecticut. It washed away the New York and New haven railroad lines. On December 21, 1946, an 1946 Honshu, - undersea earthquake set off a Japan tsunami that devastated the island of Honshu, Japan. Twenty feet high waves obliterated buildings on the shoreline, capsized 2,000 ships, flooded 60,000 square miles, and completely destroyed 40,000 homes. A 7.3 magnitude earthquake 1948 Turkmenistan 110,000 killed more than 80 percent of the inhabitants of Ashgabat. It took five years of digging out the victims which were initially estimated at 35,000. Magnitude 8.6 earthquake 1950 Tibet, China 1,526 A magnitude 8.0 earthquake in 1958 Alaska 2 the offshore Fairweather fault resulted in a tsunami with the highest ever recorded wave along the coast of Glacier Bay National Park in Alaska. It sent a wall of rocks sliding into Lituya Bay displacing the water and ice forming a wave reaching a height of 1,720 feet. Malpasset dam collapses in December 2, France 400 France after a week of heavy 1959 rains leading to flooding. The city of Frejus that was built by Roman emperor Julius Caesar as a harbor on the French Riviera coast was devastated by the flood. The great Chilean earthquake 1960 Chile 2,230 reached the never ever recorded magnitude of M9.5 on the Richter magnitude scale. A fault break of 1,000 miles in length sent seismic waves around the world for several days and caused tsunamis that reached the island of Hawaii, Japan, the Philippines, and the North American West Coast. A fire at a filled to capacity circus December 17, Brazil 300 dead, in Brazil kills 300 people and 1961 500 injured severely burn 500 more. The cause of the fire may have been sparks from a passing train.